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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

These favorite teasers look pretty easy until you read this trend:

"for eight Round 2s in a row, at least one road underdog getting at least 4.5 points has won outright".

 
Here is prop dummy's pick to pick or fade or do what you want

Drew Brees (Saints) Total Completions Under 24.5 -115

Drew Brees (Saints) Total Passing Yards Under 260.5 -115

Russell Wilson (Seahawks) Total Completions Under 17.5 -115

Russell Wilson (Seahawks) Total Passing Yards Under 218.5 -115

Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks) Total Receptions Under 2.5 -125

Doug Baldwin (Seahawks) Total Receiving Yards Under 37.5 -115

Griff Whalen (Colts) Total Receiving Yards Over 32.5 -115

LaVon Brazill (Colts) Total Receptions Over 2.5 -115

LaVon Brazill (Colts) Total Receiving Yards Over 30.5 -115

Stevan Ridley (Patriots) Total Rushing Yards Over 39.5 -115

 
Billy Bats said:
These favorite teasers look pretty easy until you read this trend:

"for eight Round 2s in a row, at least one road underdog getting at least 4.5 points has won outright".
Click to expand...
I'm with you, and it makes sense. Thinking about it, the 4 road teams are all coming off big road W's, and are not slouches by the time you're into the NFL divisional playoff round.

Color me completely shocked if the favorites all cover teased-down spreads. There will be spoilers, and your stat proves it. I'm really only confident in the Seahawks covering teased-down. Russel Wilson is 15-1 at home in his career. I have a really hard time seeing the Seahawks not covering a teased -2. I have them paired with Panters +7.5, who I could see losing but not by 2 possessions, think that game will be a battle (I punched this on Tuesday).

At the current market prices, all I'd tease is the Pats down to -1.5, and Chargers up to +15, and not feel great about it, especially if Mathews is out since the ground game will be a key for the Chargers to keep it in the teaser window. You could pair the Saints and Chargers to +15.5 and +15, respectively getting through 10, 13, 14, but I don't feel good about that either since I'd suspect one of them busts you out. I'd lean that would end up being the Saints, they are either going to cover straight up, or bust a teaser.

 
mquinnjr said:
Man In The Box said:
I still like the over tonight. Got it at 51. Both defenses stink.
Click to expand...
:tail:

I agree on this angle, and don't feel strong enough about either side to take it.
Click to expand...
I was loving the over until I read about the weather. Backing me off a little bit, but will still play it.

As far as the teasers, I know it's a sucker bet but I can't stop the false sense of security the extra points give me even though the stats say otherwise. I actually like all the dogs on teasers this weekend, much like I did last weekend. I can't see Luck getting destroyed, especially against the NE defense, points can be had for both sides and I think Indy keeps it close with a shot to win outright. Probably rolling with a NO/Indy tease and over NE straight. GL.

 
The SBR $$ consensus has been in favor of the Saints all week. They had no problem getting Saints money and it is about a 3/1 split right now. And they keep giving you more points with them.

 
I'm on all 3 tackle overs in the early game.

Lofton O7.5 (-115 at BV)
B.Wagner O7.5 (-135 at 5d)
E.Thomas O6.5 (-105 at BV)

Seattle crew hands out a ton of assists so that helps inflate the tackle numbers.

 
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I think if one of these dogs upsets it will be the Colts.

eta I am tempering that expectation due to the amount of support they are getting from bettors. :kicksrock:

Indianapolis $992,277.00 79.03%

New England $263,228.00 20.97%

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm on all 3 tackle overs in the early game.

Lofton O7.5 (-115 at BV)

B.Wagner O7.5 (-135 at 5d)

E.Thomas O6.5 (-105 at BV)

Seattle crew hands out a ton of assists so that helps inflate the tackle numbers.
Click to expand...
wagner is 8.5 that a typo or did it move ETA found it on 5d like you said

 
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ChainsawU said:
I think if one of these dogs upsets it will be the Colts.

eta I am tempering that expectation due to the amount of support they are getting from bettors. :kicksrock:

Indianapolis $992,277.00 79.03%

New England $263,228.00 20.97%
Click to expand...
Colts are a huge trap IMO but I wouldn't bet the Pats over 7.

 
have panthers 28-1 to win nfc. i think niners win tomorrow. how much would you hedge for?

 
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