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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

“New England’s cover was the biggest loser of the weekend for players,” said Mike Perry from Sportsbook.ag. When a Tom Brady blowout is bad for bettors, you know it’s not the status quo. Playoff betting is different. During the NFL regular season, a big favorite will typically attract a lopsided percentage of a game’s betting action. The average bettor simply does not want to risk his money on a bad team. Obviously every team in the postseason is playoff-caliber, and many have large fan bases. Also keep in mind that the non-bye teams that advanced from the first round scored victories that were watched by millions on national TV.

New Orleans also attracted more action than you would typically expect for a big underdog. Bovada reported 62 percent of the cash bet on their game with Seattle backed the Saints. Respected money from professionals went the other way, moving the spread from as low as Seattle -7.5 to as high as -10 near kickoff. The favorite winning by eight is an example of the danger of spread moves for the house.

The purpose of moving the spread is to make a team getting less action more attractive (while at the same time making a team getting more action less attractive). The unavoidable risk associated with such a move is the game’s result falling within the spread move. Although far from a disaster in this case, Seattle winning within the spread move was the least desirable result for the sportsbooks.

San Diego generated the most wiseguy action of the weekend and covered. San Francisco generated the most public action and covered. All four favorites won the game, meaning that any and all money line parlays keyed to the public darlings cashed — as did every teaser supporting the favorites. Speaking of chalk, when I previewed the NFL season for Grantland, the four teams with the best Super Bowl odds just happened to be the four teams remaining. Recent history says the expected will not continue: 2003 was the last time the Super Bowl winner had the best record (or tied for the best record) during the regular season. That is not an encouraging trend for Seattle or Denver.

Current Super Bowl Odds

Seattle: +200
Denver: +210
San Francisco: +325
New England: +600

Jimmy Vaccaro at the Southpoint is taking bets on every potential Super Bowl matchup:

Denver pick’em vs. Seattle
Denver pick’em vs. San Francisco
San Francisco -1.5 vs. New England
Seattle -2.5 vs. New England

This Sunday, the Patriots are underdogs in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season. New England had been favored in 11 straight playoff games. Tom Brady & Co. will have to overcome this eye-popping trend: Teams scoring 40-plus points in a playoff game the week before are only 4-22 against the spread the next week. Bookmaker Jay Kornegay expects this week’s marquee matchups to generate “record amounts” of betting action. Even so, he projects the combined handle of both games to be less than one-third of what will be bet on the Super Bowl.
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Vaccaro's lines makes it look like if you have any interest in teasing the SB, you're going Pats ML this weekend, and then teasing them through 3,4,7 for the SB.

 
Raider Nation said:
“New England’s cover was the biggest loser of the weekend for players,” said Mike Perry from Sportsbook.ag. When a Tom Brady blowout is bad for bettors, you know it’s not the status quo. Playoff betting is different. During the NFL regular season, a big favorite will typically attract a lopsided percentage of a game’s betting action. The average bettor simply does not want to risk his money on a bad team. Obviously every team in the postseason is playoff-caliber, and many have large fan bases. Also keep in mind that the non-bye teams that advanced from the first round scored victories that were watched by millions on national TV.New Orleans also attracted more action than you would typically expect for a big underdog. Bovada reported 62 percent of the cash bet on their game with Seattle backed the Saints. Respected money from professionals went the other way, moving the spread from as low as Seattle -7.5 to as high as -10 near kickoff. The favorite winning by eight is an example of the danger of spread moves for the house.

The purpose of moving the spread is to make a team getting less action more attractive (while at the same time making a team getting more action less attractive). The unavoidable risk associated with such a move is the game’s result falling within the spread move. Although far from a disaster in this case, Seattle winning within the spread move was the least desirable result for the sportsbooks.

San Diego generated the most wiseguy action of the weekend and covered. San Francisco generated the most public action and covered. All four favorites won the game, meaning that any and all money line parlays keyed to the public darlings cashed — as did every teaser supporting the favorites. Speaking of chalk, when I previewed the NFL season for Grantland, the four teams with the best Super Bowl odds just happened to be the four teams remaining. Recent history says the expected will not continue: 2003 was the last time the Super Bowl winner had the best record (or tied for the best record) during the regular season. That is not an encouraging trend for Seattle or Denver.

Current Super Bowl Odds

Seattle: +200

Denver: +210

San Francisco: +325

New England: +600
Click to expand...
it's a joke how awful the future bets are at RB:

Seattle +125

Denver +125

SF +200

NE +300
Click to expand...
 
The Ref said:
Howard saves prop was 28.5.

Rangers put 33 on him with 29 Minutes to go in the game.
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I didn't have time to post but I have the under in this game. Seems like a genius bet since it's 0-0 but since the teams have 60 shots on goal after two, I think this is one of those I'll file under "lucky."

 
Raider Nation said:
Not sure where to ask this. If one of you know the answer, go ahead and take a whack at it.

Your monthly credit card statement arrives. For sake of argument, say the balance is $1,500. Which of the following actions helps your credit score the most?

a) Pay it off in full.

b) Pay the minimum.

c) Somewhere in between.

d) Doesn't make any difference, as long as you pay at least the minimum on time.
Click to expand...
a

 
swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
Not sure where to ask this. If one of you know the answer, go ahead and take a whack at it.

Your monthly credit card statement arrives. For sake of argument, say the balance is $1,500. Which of the following actions helps your credit score the most?

a) Pay it off in full.

b) Pay the minimum.

c) Somewhere in between.

d) Doesn't make any difference, as long as you pay at least the minimum on time.
Click to expand...
a
Click to expand...
Thanks Swerve. That seems to be the consensus, and that's what I do anyway.

 
almost got into a fight in my bball game today, first time that has ever happened. Guy just wouldnt shut his mouth and keep on doing little antagonizing things and cheap shots. After he called me a () and I got an o-rebound and he fouled me, I gave him a pretty nice nudge after that. He spazzes out and get a tech and I got 4 FT's, and went on the make one of them. :doh:

 
Raider Nation said:
You married guys -- how the hell do you post here day & night and remain married??? One of life's great mysteries to me.
Click to expand...
If i'm posting here it means that i'm working at a computer on appraisals and looking for a break from brain fry. My wife is working right across from me. We work a lot.

 
modogg said:
Raider Nation said:
You married guys -- how the hell do you post here day & night and remain married??? One of life's great mysteries to me.
Click to expand...
yeah, it's not a good thing. couple that with a bad month last month, and not starting great this month, and she may have a point
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You should turn your karma around....get rid of that hideous avatar. Replace with something wholesome, like Tebow kissing a guy or something. nttawwt

 
got_nugs said:
The Ref said:
For those of you with the season prop.

Steve Stamkos (leg) participated in Thursday's morning skate.
"It was great," Stamkos said. "This is the first time I've been out there for a full skate. It was another step in the right direction. It was great mental-wise to be out there, too; great to be out there." He wants to play in at least two games for the Lightning in order to feel comfortable representing Canada at the Winter Olympics.
Click to expand...
For the ignorant....is he referring to the last 2 games of the season or before that?
Click to expand...
You rang?

 
Raider Nation said:
You married guys -- how the hell do you post here day & night and remain married??? One of life's great mysteries to me.
Click to expand...
I work from home in the day. My wife likes at least 45 min of alone/i-pad time when my daughter goes to bed. I'm a night owl. I'm a white collar hustler. I love to advantage bet sports, play cards and play the stock market.

I want to know how I've been here for over 10 years and am on this site every day for longer then I should and have 15K posts and some you you have 50K posts or more.

 
Raider Nation said:
I am soooooo happy to be single.

I never wanted kids, so I see no point in getting married.

I'm going to my grave single. (-1,600,000)
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I didn't think I wanted to get married.....I definitely didn't think I wanted kids....now I regret waiting so long to have kids, they're the best

 
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