FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

[Otis]

What's the plan for tomorrow?

What's RN's take? TIA

I'm thinking both UNDERS, and DEN and SEA to cover. Thoughts? TIA

 

[swirvenirvin]

Let's see if we can jizz in our pants this weekend. These game look a lot harder to cap the player props.

Found 2 early with the minimal lines that are posted.

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E).

*1 Brady under 40.5 pass attempts

*1 Vereen over 3.5 receptions -130

*1 P. Manning under 325.5 passing

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E)

Took all these but Blount who I saw at under 74.5 -130. Is that still in range?

That's tough, and they fact they juiced it to -130. Bovada has 72.5 at -105. Still like the 74.5 but would play for half a unit or less.

Also all my props are always betting one unit, not to win one unit. I should figure out one day if there has been an advantage one way or another

This is very easy to figure out. The less you bet (risk) the more money you are leaving on the table (if you are ev+)

assume you do bet to win all the time?

I do. You've been winning pretty consistently, maximize your returns buddy.

I really should I have been bumping it up every year, will do so again next yr and maybe swap to win instead of to bet

 

[The Ref]

What's the plan for tomorrow?

What's RN's take? TIA

I'm thinking both UNDERS, and DEN and SEA to cover. Thoughts? TIA

I'm with the public. Points and Under in both games.

Thats probably not a good thing.

 

[got_nugs]

What's the plan for tomorrow?

What's RN's take? TIA

I'm thinking both UNDERS, and DEN and SEA to cover. Thoughts? TIA

I'm with the public. Points and Under in both games.

Thats probably not a good thing.

I parlayed both.....OVERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[pizzatyme]

West ejected for Pacers. 2nd half over looks

strong!

What happened here? I have Griffin under FT's. Was this something that happened as they were

walking off/on the court for/from halftime to give him 2 bull#### freebies?

After the buzzer, both reaching for a rebound flat-footed, fought for it and West elbowed him in the head.

 

[pizzatyme]

I like the Under on the Pacers Clippers game tomorrow. With the Clippers playing back-2-back and the Pacers Defense I see this as a 98-90

game.

u198 -110 2u

Both teams swap meaningless 3s to end the game to eff me for the push. Oh well.

 

[Raider Nation]

What's the plan for tomorrow?

What's RN's take? TIA

I'm thinking both UNDERS, and DEN and SEA to cover. Thoughts? TIA

I'm with the public. Points and Under in both games.

Thats probably not a good thing.

I parlayed both.....OVERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Still love SF plus a field goal and the over.

No clue about the AFC game. Just gonna enjoy it.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Can someone tell me how they think the Broncos/Pats game will go? I actually like the under there some, both teams trying to run a lot.

 

[got_nugs]

Providence 100/150

Providence Over 67½ 110/100

They are coming off a double-overtime win, and this year they are 0-3 ATS after a game that went to overtime. But maybe they are moving in the right direction since they are 2-0 SU and ATS L2. They own an 8-2 home record - losing those two games by a combined 5 points - so ATS looks good, but I went action junkie instead. It came down to RLM. The total is creeping up, and they do average 76.8 points at home. First-time home dogs, and it's on TV.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5p5z5CIxiA

 

[swirvenirvin]

I will start posting every bet I make on the local site so everyone can ####### win. This #### is unbelievable

 

[ChainsawU]

Providence put the ####y on the chain wax.

 

[ChainsawU]

Divisional Championships, (home teams) since 2001:

SU: 14-10-0 (2.04, 58.3%) ATS: 10-14-0 (-2.42, 41.7%) avg line: -4.5 O/U: 15-9-0 (2.85, 62.5%) avg total: 43.3 link

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I will start posting every bet I make on the local site so everyone can ####### win. This #### is unbelievable

Plentyoffish.com?

 

[got_nugs]

I thought I was about to see a coach hit a ref in the UConn game.

 

[swirvenirvin]

poor nropp losing another 10 star

@nropp cancel your twitter, you are costing blue collar ppl their hard earned money. They follow you not knowing what a pitiful loser you r

@LampDesk6 @nropp not even just figure if you put that much effort into research you should be good I could throw darts and do same

LLP ‏@NinerFaithful1 9m

@nropp maybe you should do a fake 80* and try to get even.


@LampDesk6 @goo307 @nropp He should not be allowed to tweet. Casual bettors think he's sharp and are getting crushed. It's a shame

 

[Doctor Detroit]

nropp is the basketball guy?

I feel like writing the same thing to Lambskin, *******. <_<

 

[swirvenirvin]

nropp is the basketball guy?

I feel like writing the same thing to Lambskin, *******. <_<

yeah bball

 

[gmbacm]

trying something out and placed these SOG at SB based solely on being off by 3 or more on the save props at bovada. see how this goes.

ott u31.5 opponent saves at bovada is 28

edm o26.5 opponent saves at bovada is 26.5

tb u28.5 opponent saves at bovada is 25

sj u 33.5 opponent saves at bovada is 28.5

meh 2-2

I started tracking a system based on these two lines but gave up.If the saves line was almost equal with SOG line, I bet Over for SOG. If the saves line was 3.5 or more lower than SOG line, I bet Under for SOG. I think it worked for the most part.

I like 3.5 better then 3. Using that there are still a lot of plays today... put a small amount on these to watch them. Montreal line really stands out at 1.5 shots less then saves, and anaheim at 5.5 more shots then saves.

flyers u 30.5 (nyi 27 saves)

montreal o 29.5 (leafs 31 saves)

sabres 026.5 (clb 26.5 saves)

bjackets o29.5 (buf 29.5 saves)

redwings u 29.5 (la 25.5 saves)

ana u 30.5 (stl 25 saves)

yotes u 29.5 (nj 25 saves)

nucks u31.5 (flames 27 saves)

5-2 with vancouver pending

 

[got_nugs]

Man Ivanovic is ##### slapping Serena right now.

 

[Raider Nation]

No tennis chatter tonight?

 

[Raider Nation]

Man Ivanovic is ##### slapping Serena right now.

Nevermind.

 

[got_nugs]

I think most fellas have smartly surrendered to the Australian Open.

I'm not that smart.

 

[Raider Nation]

What was Serena favored by?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

What was Serena favored by?

-1,000,000,000,000,000,000

 

[Raider Nation]

Found it at Covers. Ivanovic was getting +980.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Can someone tell me how they think the Broncos/Pats game will go? I actually like the under there some, both teams trying to run a lot.

Hard to bet against Brady with points. He finds a way to torment Peyton.

 

[Raider Nation]

Can someone tell me how they think the Broncos/Pats game will go? I actually like the under there some, both teams trying to run a lot.

Hard to bet against Brady with points. He finds a way to torment Peyton.

Pats and under?

Pats and over?

Broncos and under?

Broncos and over?

Sure.

There isn't a single result which would be surprising. Denver winning 49-31 is just as likely as NE winning 23-20, IMO.

 

[got_nugs]

Operation fade Ferrer initiated

 

[Raider Nation]

This game hinges entirely on New England's effectiveness running the ball.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Can someone tell me how they think the Broncos/Pats game will go? I actually like the under there some, both teams trying to run a lot.

Hard to bet against Brady with points. He finds a way to torment Peyton.

Pats and under?

Pats and over?

Broncos and under?

Broncos and over?

Sure.

There isn't a single result which would be surprising. Denver winning 49-31 is just as likely as NE winning 23-20, IMO.

Yeah I don't get this game either. I think if Denver can run, there is no way they can lose. But Belicheck isn't known as one of the greatest coaches for nothing, he is the great equalizer.

 

[Raider Nation]

Yes indeed, but BB has been successful in the playoffs by taking away your best player. Want to take away someone on Denver's offense? No big deal. Payton will find the open guy. He didn't have this many weapons in Indy. I think I just talked myself into the Broncos.

 

[Ignoramus]

Yes indeed, but BB has been successful in the playoffs by taking away your best player. Want to take away someone on Denver's offense? No big deal. Payton will find the open guy. He didn't have this many weapons in Indy. I think I just talked myself into the Broncos.

What if Denver's best weapon is Peyton?

 

[Raider Nation]

Yes indeed, but BB has been successful in the playoffs by taking away your best player. Want to take away someone on Denver's offense? No big deal. Payton will find the open guy. He didn't have this many weapons in Indy. I think I just talked myself into the Broncos.

What if Denver's best weapon is Peyton?

:mindblown:

 

[The Ref]

Yes indeed, but BB has been successful in the playoffs by taking away your best player. Want to take away someone on Denver's offense? No big deal. Payton will find the open guy. He didn't have this many weapons in Indy. I think I just talked myself into the Broncos.

What if Denver's best weapon is Peyton?

Exactly Right. Thats why the Patriots let them run the ball 6000 times last game and Moreno had 250 yards rushing.

 

[The Ref]

Along these lines..... Moreno Most Rushing yards of the weekend +250

 

[Frostillicus]

poor nropp losing another 10 star

@nropp cancel your twitter, you are costing blue collar ppl their hard earned money. They follow you not knowing what a pitiful loser you r

@LampDesk6 @nropp not even just figure if you put that much effort into research you should be good I could throw darts and do same

LLP ‏@NinerFaithful1 9m

@nropp maybe you should do a fake 80* and try to get even.


@LampDesk6 @goo307 @nropp He should not be allowed to tweet. Casual bettors think he's sharp and are getting crushed. It's a shame

Yikes. He had two 10u plays tonight and both lost.

EDIT: I can't read. 0-1 on 10u, 1-2 on 5u.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Providence 100/150

Providence Over 67½ 110/100

They are coming off a double-overtime win, and this year they are 0-3 ATS after a game that went to overtime. But maybe they are moving in the right direction since they are 2-0 SU and ATS L2. They own an 8-2 home record - losing those two games by a combined 5 points - so ATS looks good, but I went action junkie instead. It came down to RLM. The total is creeping up, and they do average 76.8 points at home. First-time home dogs, and it's on TV.

Thank you kind sir. I went with the ML as well.

 

[ghostguy123]

It' s a high over/under for the Broncs/Pats game, but I am sayin over.

 

[The_Man]

I haven't gambled much this year because I've been too busy to put in the work, but have gotten back in on the playoffs and gone 5-1-2.

SF might be one of the best coached, most disciplined (within their scheme, not necessarily in regards to fights) teams I've ever seen. Meanwhile, Russ Wilson has just 4 TDs and 3 INTs over the last 5 games. I feel like Seattle might legitimately struggle to score any points and that SF will grind out a win. I love the +3 here.

The other game, I really like the under. We know the Pats are now a running team. And in their previous match-up, the Pats played nickel and dime all game, essentially letting Denver run the ball to keep Peyton from throwing. I think this is a low-scoring (relatively), tight game.

ML parlay of the underdogs is +586

 

[Dan Lambskin]

nropp is the basketball guy?

I feel like writing the same thing to Lambskin, *******. <_<

Sorry Broseph...I should have known something was up when everyone was all over that horse. I'll find us a winner down the road

 

[Tiger Fan]

Let's see if we can jizz in our pants this weekend. These game look a lot harder to cap the player props.

Found 2 early with the minimal lines that are posted.

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E).

*1 Brady under 40.5 pass attempts

*1 Vereen over 3.5 receptions -130

*1 P. Manning under 325.5 passing

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E)

*1 Anquan Boldin under 5.5 receptions -140

*1 Colin Kaepernick under 201.5 passing

*1 Zach Miller under 25.5 receiving

*1 Michael Crabtree under 5 receptions -130

*1 Golden Tate under 4 or better receptions (waiting for Bovada)

Any one of these you like any better than the others. Got a $500 free bet I'm looking to use

I'll break the thought process down and let you decide

Vereen is the one real hunch play. His stats the last 4 weeks dont back up over 3.5 catches, but he did have 8 catches last time, and NE hasnt really played from behind in a few weeks

I think Boldin might struggle a little to get open vs the Seattle DB's Seattle basically says they plays as physical as they can on purpose and try to get away with holding grabbing clutching until its called. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303754404579310500005285822

Kyle Arrington is decent vs slot wr's and held welker to 4-30 earlier in ther yr

Think Bellicheat may try same defense as earlier and invite Denver to run the ball on them so under on Manning

Blount think may be a bit overinflated based on his last 3 weeks. I believe the rotation is Blount Blount, then him and Ridley swap every other series from there on out.

Brady's last 3 games.

16 at BAL W 41-7 14 26 53.8 172 1 0 0 0 - 0 12.617 BUF W 34-20 14 24 58.3 122 1 1 4 -3 -0.8 0 9.8DP IND W 43-22 13 25 52.0 198 0 0 1 -1 -1.0 0 9.8Here are a few where player history vs the team really dictated the bet

WR G. Tate Dec 8 13 SEA(a) L 17-19 - - - - - - 6 65 10.83 0 6.5WR G. Tate Sep 15 13 SEA(h) W 29-3 - - - - - - 1 19 19.00 0 1.9WR G. Tate Dec 23 12 SEA(h) W 42-13 - - - - - 2 27 13.50 0 2.7WR G. Tate Oct 18 12 SEA(a) L 6-13 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0WR G. Tate Dec 24 11 SEA(h) L 17-19 - - - - - - 3 16 5.33 0 1.6WR G. Tate Sep 11 11 SEA(a) L 17-33 - - - - - - 1 8 8.00 1 6.8WR G. Tate Dec 12 10 SEA(a) L 21-40 - - - - - - 3 29 9.67 0 2.9TE Z. Miller Dec 8 13 SEA(a) L 17-19 - - - - - - 1 13 13.00 0 1.3TE Z. Miller Sep 15 13 SEA(h) W 29-3 - - - - - - 2 22 11.00 0 2.2TE Z. Miller Dec 23 12 SEA(h) W 42-13 - - - - - 2 15 7.50 0 1.5TE Z. Miller Oct 18 12 SEA(a) L 6-13 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0TE Z. Miller Dec 24 11 SEA(h) L 17-19 - - - - - - 1 9 9.00 0 0.9TE Z. Miller Sep 11 11 SEA(a) L 17-33 - - - - - - 2 19 9.50 0 1.9TE Z. Miller Oct 17 10 OAK(a) L 9-17 - - - - - - 2 48 24.00 0 4.8QB C. Kaepernick Dec 8 13 SF(h) W 19-17 15 29 51.7% 175 1 1 9 31 3.44 0 15.9QB C. Kaepernick Sep 15 13 SF(a) L 3-29 13 28 46.4% 127 0 3 9 87 9.67 0 - 15.1QB C. Kaepernick Dec 23 12 SF(a) L 13-42 19 36 52.8% 244 1 1 7 31 4.43 0 - 19.3

WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 8 13 	SF(h) 	W 19-17 		- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	4 	40 	10.00 	0 	4.0WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 23 12 	SF(a) 	L 13-42 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	4 	65 	16.25 	0 	6.5WR M. Crabtree 	Oct 18 12 	SF(h) 	W 13-6 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	        4 	31 	7.75 	0 	3.1WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 24 11 	SF(a) 	W 19-17 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	5 	85 	17.00 	0 	8.5WR M. Crabtree 	Sep 11 11 	SF(h) 	W 33-17 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	1 	4 	4.00 	0 	0.4WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 12 10 	SF(h) 	W 40-21 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	1 	1 	1.00 	0 	0.1WR M. Crabtree 	Sep 12 10 	SF(a) 	L 6-31 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	        2 	12 	6.00 	0 	1.2WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 6 09 	SF(a) 	L 17-20 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	6 	60 	10.00 	0 	6.0

Thx. I did some more research and at least FBG and Prediction Machine all support Vereen over 3.5. Think I'll be rolling with y'all!

 

[Pumpnick]

so does the altitude effect the pats much today?

 

[The Ref]

I've long maintained that Conference Championship Sunday is the best Football day of the year. We got two absolutely great games scheduled.

Merry Christmas everyone.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Let's see if we can jizz in our pants this weekend. These game look a lot harder to cap the player props.

Found 2 early with the minimal lines that are posted.

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E).

*1 Brady under 40.5 pass attempts

*1 Vereen over 3.5 receptions -130

*1 P. Manning under 325.5 passing

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E)

*1 Anquan Boldin under 5.5 receptions -140

*1 Colin Kaepernick under 201.5 passing

*1 Zach Miller under 25.5 receiving

*1 Michael Crabtree under 5 receptions -130

*1 Golden Tate under 4 or better receptions (waiting for Bovada)

Any one of these you like any better than the others. Got a $500 free bet I'm looking to use

I'll break the thought process down and let you decide

Vereen is the one real hunch play. His stats the last 4 weeks dont back up over 3.5 catches, but he did have 8 catches last time, and NE hasnt really played from behind in a few weeks

I think Boldin might struggle a little to get open vs the Seattle DB's Seattle basically says they plays as physical as they can on purpose and try to get away with holding grabbing clutching until its called. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303754404579310500005285822

Kyle Arrington is decent vs slot wr's and held welker to 4-30 earlier in ther yr

Think Bellicheat may try same defense as earlier and invite Denver to run the ball on them so under on Manning

Blount think may be a bit overinflated based on his last 3 weeks. I believe the rotation is Blount Blount, then him and Ridley swap every other series from there on out.

Brady's last 3 games.

16 at BAL W 41-7 14 26 53.8 172 1 0 0 0 - 0 12.617 BUF W 34-20 14 24 58.3 122 1 1 4 -3 -0.8 0 9.8DP IND W 43-22 13 25 52.0 198 0 0 1 -1 -1.0 0 9.8Here are a few where player history vs the team really dictated the bet

WR G. Tate Dec 8 13 SEA(a) L 17-19 - - - - - - 6 65 10.83 0 6.5WR G. Tate Sep 15 13 SEA(h) W 29-3 - - - - - - 1 19 19.00 0 1.9WR G. Tate Dec 23 12 SEA(h) W 42-13 - - - - - 2 27 13.50 0 2.7WR G. Tate Oct 18 12 SEA(a) L 6-13 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0WR G. Tate Dec 24 11 SEA(h) L 17-19 - - - - - - 3 16 5.33 0 1.6WR G. Tate Sep 11 11 SEA(a) L 17-33 - - - - - - 1 8 8.00 1 6.8WR G. Tate Dec 12 10 SEA(a) L 21-40 - - - - - - 3 29 9.67 0 2.9TE Z. Miller Dec 8 13 SEA(a) L 17-19 - - - - - - 1 13 13.00 0 1.3TE Z. Miller Sep 15 13 SEA(h) W 29-3 - - - - - - 2 22 11.00 0 2.2TE Z. Miller Dec 23 12 SEA(h) W 42-13 - - - - - 2 15 7.50 0 1.5TE Z. Miller Oct 18 12 SEA(a) L 6-13 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.0TE Z. Miller Dec 24 11 SEA(h) L 17-19 - - - - - - 1 9 9.00 0 0.9TE Z. Miller Sep 11 11 SEA(a) L 17-33 - - - - - - 2 19 9.50 0 1.9TE Z. Miller Oct 17 10 OAK(a) L 9-17 - - - - - - 2 48 24.00 0 4.8QB C. Kaepernick Dec 8 13 SF(h) W 19-17 15 29 51.7% 175 1 1 9 31 3.44 0 15.9QB C. Kaepernick Sep 15 13 SF(a) L 3-29 13 28 46.4% 127 0 3 9 87 9.67 0 - 15.1QB C. Kaepernick Dec 23 12 SF(a) L 13-42 19 36 52.8% 244 1 1 7 31 4.43 0 - 19.3

WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 8 13 	SF(h) 	W 19-17 		- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	4 	40 	10.00 	0 	4.0WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 23 12 	SF(a) 	L 13-42 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	4 	65 	16.25 	0 	6.5WR M. Crabtree 	Oct 18 12 	SF(h) 	W 13-6 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	        4 	31 	7.75 	0 	3.1WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 24 11 	SF(a) 	W 19-17 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	5 	85 	17.00 	0 	8.5WR M. Crabtree 	Sep 11 11 	SF(h) 	W 33-17 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	1 	4 	4.00 	0 	0.4WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 12 10 	SF(h) 	W 40-21 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	1 	1 	1.00 	0 	0.1WR M. Crabtree 	Sep 12 10 	SF(a) 	L 6-31 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	        2 	12 	6.00 	0 	1.2WR M. Crabtree 	Dec 6 09 	SF(a) 	L 17-20 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	- 	6 	60 	10.00 	0 	6.0

Thx. I did some more research and at least FBG and Prediction Machine all support Vereen over 3.5. Think I'll be rolling with y'all!

I have heard from 2 other people I respect as far as props as they both like Vereen over 3.5 also. Bovada is listed at 4

 

[swirvenirvin]

Let's see if we can jizz in our pants this weekend. These game look a lot harder to cap the player props.

Found 2 early with the minimal lines that are posted.

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E).

*1 Brady under 40.5 pass attempts

*1 Vereen over 3.5 receptions -130

*1 P. Manning under 325.5 passing

*1 LaGarette Blount under 78.5 rushing

*1 Welker under 6 receptions (E)

*1 Anquan Boldin under 5.5 receptions -140

*1 Colin Kaepernick under 201.5 passing

*1 Zach Miller under 25.5 receiving

*1 Michael Crabtree under 5 receptions -130

*1 Golden Tate under 4 or better receptions (waiting for Bovada)

*1 Frank Gore under 1.5 receptions -165

 

[Tiger Fan]

I really like the NFC -2.5 right now.

If Denver wins tomorrow the line will be ~1.5, and you miss out on a semi insignificant point.

If NE wins tomorrow the line will be ~3.5 and you get to cross a significant number.

jumped on this as well

 

[ChainsawU]

It' s a high over/under for the Broncs/Pats game, but I am sayin over.

We have been wondering where you have been off to.

 

[ChainsawU]

Belichick is 3-0 SU as a dog of 4 or more in the playoffs (avg line 9.2).

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

2U Ninkovich U5.5 tackles -115

 

[TheGooRoo]

2U Ninkovich U5.5 tackles -115

Have you ever seen a game log similar to his the last time these teams met?