FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

[John Bender]

Iona and Upenn tonight.

 

[Raider Nation]

Alright Doc, we're all in fairly heavily on the Canes/Panthers u5.5

Let's do this!

 

[got_nugs]

BRO/DET u 204
DEN/NY u209

Team Totals
OKC o104.5
DET u103
MIN o 99

I'm just getting home and didn't look at NBA at all. I riding witchoo on these el Tigre!

 

[ChainsawU]

I have some carb chat. Wednesday night I made myself some ribs. It was all I had to eat that day. I had them with barbecue sauce and 375ml of straight Patron. Early Thursday morning the Safelite guy woke me up at my front door to replace my windshield, and between the hangover and standing outside in 32 degree weather in my t-shirt and shorts, I passed straight the #### out while he was punching my info into his iPhone. Now I have a 2-inch gash across my jaw where I hit the doorknob on my way to the ground.

 

[got_nugs]

I have some carb chat. Wednesday night I made myself some ribs. It was all I had to eat that day. I had them with barbecue sauce and 375ml of straight Patron. Early Thursday morning the Safelite guy woke me up at my front door to replace my windshield, and between the hangover and standing outside in 32 degree weather in my t-shirt and shorts, I passed straight the #### out while he was punching my info into his iPhone. Now I have a 2-inch gash across my jaw where I hit the doorknob on my way to the ground.

For serious?

 

[tjnc09]

I went with Rangers straight and parlayed with the Yotes. The 6-0 away trend after a home loss looks good. Depending where you look, between 65 and 76 percent of the bets are on Chicago yet they are getting cheaper. And the trend of only losing two game-6's away L7, both of them at Phoenix, got me all the way turnt up.

The NYR/Chicago lines are not a significant move If that's what you are suggesting. Tailing you on them in any case.

 

[tjnc09]

BRO/DET u 204

DEN/NY u209

Team Totals

OKC o104.5

DET u103

MIN o 99

I'm just getting home and didn't look at NBA at all. I riding witchoo on these el Tigre!

I'm on OKC Orlando under 199.5. 105-94 OKC?

 

[got_nugs]

BRO/DET u 204

DEN/NY u209

Team Totals

OKC o104.5

DET u103

MIN o 99

I'm just getting home and didn't look at NBA at all. I riding witchoo on these el Tigre!

I'm on OKC Orlando under 199.5. 105-94 OKC?

Orlando can score 80 for all I care.

 

[Tiger Fan]

BRO/DET u 204

DEN/NY u209

Team Totals

OKC o104.5

DET u103

MIN o 99

I'm just getting home and didn't look at NBA at all. I riding witchoo on these el Tigre!

A buddy of mine started capping nba games. With over 50 games in the books he's up about 13u. Not a huge sample size, but I started betting half units on them until I'm comfortable.

He sent me his spreadsheet but it's crazy. I need to sit with him to understand it better

 

[got_nugs]

BRO/DET u 204

DEN/NY u209

Team Totals

OKC o104.5

DET u103

MIN o 99

I'm just getting home and didn't look at NBA at all. I riding witchoo on these el Tigre!

A buddy of mine started capping nba games. With over 50 games in the books he's up about 13u. Not a huge sample size, but I started betting half units on them until I'm comfortable.

He sent me his spreadsheet but it's crazy. I need to sit with him to understand it better

I'd be interested in any info you can translate and transcribe. It's really amazing how detailed you can research statistics in the NBA now.

Grantland article

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[got_nugs]

Sweet, our Carolina / Florida under 5.5 cashes!

wait, that's just 1 period???

 

[Raider Nation]

Sweet, our Carolina / Florida under 5.5 cashes!

wait, that's just 1 period???

Longshot of longshots, but I've seen stranger things. Let's get one scoreless period then the 3rd is a crapshoot.

 

[Raider Nation]

Nevermind.

 

[Raider Nation]

Double up on the San Jose game, that's all.

Quick, someone give me a play in the San Jose game.

 

[swirvenirvin]

BRO/DET u 204

DEN/NY u209

Team Totals

OKC o104.5

DET u103

MIN o 99

I'm just getting home and didn't look at NBA at all. I riding witchoo on these el Tigre!

A buddy of mine started capping nba games. With over 50 games in the books he's up about 13u. Not a huge sample size, but I started betting half units on them until I'm comfortable.

He sent me his spreadsheet but it's crazy. I need to sit with him to understand it better

I'd be interested in any info you can translate and transcribe. It's really amazing how detailed you can research statistics in the NBA now.

Grantland article

that is for work its the weekend will have to look at later

 

[tjnc09]

BRO/DET u 204

DEN/NY u209

Team Totals

OKC o104.5

DET u103

MIN o 99

I'm just getting home and didn't look at NBA at all. I riding witchoo on these el Tigre!

A buddy of mine started capping nba games. With over 50 games in the books he's up about 13u. Not a huge sample size, but I started betting half units on them until I'm comfortable.

He sent me his spreadsheet but it's crazy. I need to sit with him to understand it better

I'd be interested in any info you can translate and transcribe. It's really amazing how detailed you can research statistics in the NBA now.

Grantland article

Old but good re: voulgaris

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

 

[got_nugs]

Double up on the San Jose game, that's all.

Quick, someone give me a play in the San Jose game.

I'm totally on San Jose.

btw who's playing San Jose? where is San Jose?

 

[ChainsawU]

I'd be interested in any info you can translate and transcribe.

….the clearest application of EPV is quantifying a player’s overall offensive value, taking into account every single action he has performed with the ball over the course of a game, a road trip, or even a season….

….This is similar but not identical to the idea of Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) introduced by the great Keith Woolner, formerly of Baseball Prospectus….

….Cervone and D’Amour began building a model to estimate EPV last year. They derived their approach from “competing risk models,” which are mostly used in survival analysis to evaluate multiple risks of death and changes to those risks over time. Cervone saw an opportunity to apply them to basketball. Instead of the duration of a human life, he would examine NBA possessions; in place of various causes of death would be various possession outcomes in basketball games….

….The overall contribution of the EPV project remains unknown; it is in its infancy and is by no means going to “revolutionize” basketball analysis. But perhaps it will eventually fuel a new supplementary approach to assessing performance in the NBA….

 

[got_nugs]

You can bet team goals? I may just play San Jose over 2.5 goals. I haven't ever seen a Blue Jacket skate before, no idea how they'd stop a Shark.

eta-in case it's not evident...I have no idea about anything in hockey at all. I couldn't name 20 players in the league, real talk. Do not tail me, i'm just an idiot. Derrick Rose is still not playing.

 

[got_nugs]

I'd be interested in any info you can translate and transcribe.

….the clearest application of EPV is quantifying a player’s overall offensive value, taking into account every single action he has performed with the ball over the course of a game, a road trip, or even a season….

….This is similar but not identical to the idea of Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) introduced by the great Keith Woolner, formerly of Baseball Prospectus….

….Cervone and D’Amour began building a model to estimate EPV last year. They derived their approach from “competing risk models,” which are mostly used in survival analysis to evaluate multiple risks of death and changes to those risks over time. Cervone saw an opportunity to apply them to basketball. Instead of the duration of a human life, he would examine NBA possessions; in place of various causes of death would be various possession outcomes in basketball games….

….The overall contribution of the EPV project remains unknown; it is in its infancy and is by no means going to “revolutionize” basketball analysis. But perhaps it will eventually fuel a new supplementary approach to assessing performance in the NBA….

I meant his buddys spreadsheet, not the article. You bump your head?

 

[ChainsawU]

Sharks have hit two overs in their L16 games.

 

[ChainsawU]

They haven't beat the Blue Jackets in over two years (0-4; avg line -164.2). Avg Score 2.0 to 5.0.

 

[Raider Nation]

Well, we still miraculously have a pulse after 2 periods in FLA/CAR. It was 4-1 four minutes into the 2nd, followed by 16 scoreless minutes. Just need 20 more minutes of lackadaisical hockey. Clemmensen has played really well after shitbag Thomas got yanked.

 

[got_nugs]

hey Thunder-SCORE MORE

 

[Raider Nation]

Twice in the first four minutes, Panthers have walked in ALONE.... the first one got stoned the second one hit the pipe.

15 minutes left....

 

[Raider Nation]

11 and change left. Still breathing.

If we can get to about the 7:00 mark, I'd say both over and under have a 50/50 shot. Incredible, considering how this thing started.

 

[Raider Nation]

This is destiny, boys. Snipers are getting robbed left and right. 9:00 left.

 

[Raider Nation]

7:00 and change left. Carolina to the power play.

 

[Raider Nation]

Uggggghhhhhh......

Shocker.

 

[got_nugs]

fahq.

but at least the Rangers just scored. LETS GO RANGERS

 

[LOCO]

Timberwolves pk

 

[got_nugs]

I'm pretty sure that was as bad a beat as i've experienced.

 

[Raider Nation]

Sharks have hit two overs in their L16 games.

Works for me. Let's get that earlier under back... and then some!

 

[Raider Nation]

CBJ/SJ u5.5, for the record.

 

[got_nugs]

GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

CBJ/SJ u5.5, for the record.

I'm on this one too.

 

[got_nugs]

Did that really just happen in Detroit?

 

[tjnc09]

I went with Rangers straight and parlayed with the Yotes. The 6-0 away trend after a home loss looks good. Depending where you look, between 65 and 76 percent of the bets are on Chicago yet they are getting cheaper. And the trend of only losing two game-6's away L7, both of them at Phoenix, got me all the way turnt up.

The NYR/Chicago lines are not a significant move If that's what you are suggesting. Tailing you on them in any case.

I know you are gonna talk #### to Tony after that one

 

[Raider Nation]

CBJ/SJ u5.5, for the record.

I'm on this one too.

I could use a nice, easy one tonight. 1-0 after 2 will suffice.

 

[got_nugs]

Whacky NBA Tiger Fan.

1) OKC scores 37 points in the 2nd half (needed 39) after scoring 36 points in the 1st quarter and 65 in the 1st half. The bummer was I live bet under 203.5, Orlando dunks with .01 left to hit 205.

2) Brandon Jennings on Detroit gets the ball with 18 seconds left, Detroit up 13. Instead of running out the clock like EVERY OTHER ####### RESPECTABLE PLAYER ON EARTH he jacks up a meaningless 3 to hit 206 (line was 205).

Should be 3-1 heading into this Minnesota game, not 1-3.

 

[got_nugs]

CBJ/SJ u5.5, for the record.

I'm on this one too.

I could use a nice, easy one tonight. 1-0 after 2 will suffice.

Lets get this under. I didn't bet it at Kurts, we should be good here.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

What the heck, in on the under!

 

[Raider Nation]

FML

 

[modogg]

FML

 

[got_nugs]

FML

Mo, did you get in on that Tigerfilth earlier?

 

[modogg]

FML

Mo, did you get in on that Tigerfilth earlier?

i grabbed the Det and Minny plays. luckily caught saw's NYR and Yotes plays too so floating along for now

 

[swirvenirvin]

Random dood on one of the forums having a pretty good yr

233-153 on half unit plays

8-19 on 1 unit plays

These are half units plays.

I parlayed em for a what the hell Friday play

Char -3 1/2

Canis -2 1/2

0 fer 2

 

[modogg]

Random dood on one of the forums having a pretty good yr

233-153 on half unit plays

8-19 on 1 unit plays

These are half units plays.

I parlayed em for a what the hell Friday play

Char -3 1/2

Canis -2 1/2

0 fer 2

lol, that's how that usually works

 

[got_nugs]

FML

Mo, did you get in on that Tigerfilth earlier?

i grabbed the Det and Minny plays. luckily caught saw's NYR and Yotes plays too so floating along for now

In Kurts house I played the Hawks on the Drs advice, then on Bovada I played the Saw-lay later on(forgetting that I already had Chicago in). I kinda feel like I forced the Yotes into winning by betting on Chicago 'over there'.