My take on Nebraska-Washington
When you combine the fact that 20k+ fans travelled to Seattle earlier this year with the Huskers playing in the Holiday Bowl for the second straight season, this is probably going to be the weakest bowl showing by Husker fans since they played Northwestern back in the 2000 season.
Some key factors:
- One of UW's DT's is out and is being replaced by a guy that's 50 lbs lighter. One of their starting DE's is also out.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/husk...932_uwfb29.html
Reportedly, they only have 5 guys healthy on the dline.
- Sean Callahan reported that he got to watch T-Magic at practice for a little bit on Tuesday, and that he appeared to have his old burst back, which he hasn't had since he got hurt against Mizzou. In SC's opinion, T-Magic is healthy (although he admitted he didn't get to watch a lot of the practice).
Personally, I'm still not going to be convinced that he's at 100% until I see it with my own eyes.
- Niles Paul, NU's leading wr, may play a little bit after coming back from a broken foot, but I don't see him being a significant factor.
- Starting DT Baker Steinkuhler is suspended and will be replaced by Terrence Moore/Thadeus Randle. This may slightly soften up the interior run defense, but it's not a major loss, imo.
- Pelini is 3 - 0 in bowl games. The biggest concern for Nebraska is obviously their motivation. Bo did lead NU to a 17 - 3 win over Michigan St. back in 2003 after Solich was fired, and motivation didn't seem to be a problem for that game (it was a valid concern beforehand).
- Locker went 4-20 passing in the first meeting. I don't see how he can possibly be held in check to the same degree this game. Also, I expect him to be running the ball a lot more this time which teams have had some success running the qb against Nebraska this year.
My conclusion: I think the line of Nebraska -14 is about right (I would of set it at -15). Unless T-Magic is 100%, this isn't the same explosive offense that stomped UW in Seattle earlier this year. I'm probably going to lay off this game, but if I had to play it I would take Nebraska -14.
I think the biggest opportunity will be taking the Huskers minus the points in the 2nd half, if Nebraska plays sloppy and uninspiring football in the 1st half and Martinez looks good. In this scenario, the team will definitely be motivated after receiving a tongue lashing from the coaches at halftime. With virtually no depth and little size on the dline, the Huskers should wear down the Huskies defensive front which should lead to some big plays in the 2nd half.