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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

tjnc09 said:
Xavier -3.5
Click to expand...
On Xavier -3 -115

ETA: Read NC State is 338th in the country in surrendering offensive rebounds. Xavier has Stainbrook healthy, as he played in the Big East tournament. Also practically a home game for them in Dayton, which is about 45 minutes from Cincinnati so it's a neutral court game in Xavier's back yard practically. Xavier has a history of doing well in the tournament, liking this play the more I look at it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-78.htm

Thought this was interesting:

Round #1 Underdogs Still Rule … But Barely

Underdogs are still a better bet than favorites in first round games. Specifically, underdogs are 98-88-6 ATS (53%) over the past six tournaments combined. If you are wondering why dogs rule the roost; refer back to March Madness Trends – Part 1 of a Six Part Series.

The interesting component of this trend is its seesaw nature. Namely, last season underdogs were a bookie busting 19-12-1 ATS (61%) in first round games, compared to 2002 when pups were an unprofitable 14-17-1 ATS (45%) in the opening round. However, in 2001 underdogs were once again profitable at 18-14 ATS (56%). In 2000, dogs were all square at 15-15-2 ATS (50%). In 1999, they were a 56% winning proposition (18-14 ATS) after going just 47% (14-16-2) in 1998.

As this pattern shows, underdogs were profitable every other year (except 2000). Or if you prefer, favorites were profitable every other year (except 2000). A reasonable explanation is that oddsmakers simply adjust based on the prior tournament's outcome. If this is the case, than dogs could be spaded and neutered in the opening round this season after taking the bookmakers to the cleaners in round one last year.

Remember, Vegas is the “City of Fish and Chips. Some poor fish is always losing his chips.†We took this quote from a blackjack book written back in the early 1980’s, but make no mistake; Mr. Shewell’s words directly correlate to the oddsmakers’ ability to fine-tune what has been unsuccessful for them in the past and use it as a profit center in the future. It’s what “the house†is built upon. Always stay a step ahead!
Click to expand...
 
My woman knows nothing about college basketball, she isn't even from the U.S.

So I think she did pretty good with most of her elite 8. Obviously I had some influence in her choices....although I didn't give her any advice.

OU

Wisky

UK

Michigan

UNC

UVa

Tulsa

W. Michigan

Her east bracket is a disaster, With SF Austin, Tulsa and WMU winning a lot and Tulsa to the final four
OU/UNC final, OU champs.

:popcorn:

 
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Doctor Detroit said:
My woman knows nothing about college basketball, she isn't even from the U.S.

So I think she did pretty good with most of her elite 8. Obviously I had some influence in her choices....although I didn't give her any advice.

OU

Wisky

UK

Michigan

UNC

UVa

Tulsa

W. Michigan

Her east bracket is a disaster, With SF Austin, Tulsa and WMU winning a lot and Tulsa to the final four
Click to expand...
OU/UNC final, OU champs.

:popcorn:
Don't you have some connection to Oklahoma? ie: school, grew up, slept with a waitress, etc?

 
mquinnjr said:
tjnc09 said:
Xavier -3.5
Click to expand...
On Xavier -3 -115

ETA: Read NC State is 338th in the country in surrendering offensive rebounds. Xavier has Stainbrook healthy, as he played in the Big East tournament. Also practically a home game for them in Dayton, which is about 45 minutes from Cincinnati so it's a neutral court game in Xavier's back yard practically. Xavier has a history of doing well in the tournament, liking this play the more I look at it.
Click to expand...
Line is now -4.5 -107 at Pinnacle. I think it's the "sharp" side from the money. In any case, beating Pinnacle by almost 1.5 pts (I played -3 -115 at Bovada as well) is a win. Let's do this.

 
comfortably numb said:
TheGooRoo said:
Frostillicus said:
Frostillicus said:
Rowley (alb) over 12.5p -110
Click to expand...
Christon (x) over 17p
Click to expand...
Really like Criston. Aggresive, high volume shooter, gives ya a great chance to win. One of the more underrated scorers in CBB. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
up to 19 (-125)on SB
Click to expand...
Playing this to win a whopping $25 at Bovada O17.5 @ -145

Watched a fair amount of Xavier this year, Semaj is a potential first round pick, nasty scorer. I like it :thumbup:

 
Frostillicus said:
So I finished +6.6u on player props for the pre-tournament year. Disappointed since at one point I was up in the +20s, but I'm happy with a profitable year since this was my first time doing this seriously. I also played a decent amount of half unit bets that I didn't track that I think did well overall (which I'm sure is what everyone thinks so I'll be sure to track those next year). Learned a lot, thanks to a lot of you here, as well. Kind of went off the rails when bovada started offering the huge amount of props and my cards ballooned, but will use that for learnings for next season. Thanks to all who followed and offered input and encouraging words, and thanks to goo roo for reminding me that no matter what the numbers look like there are guys like Marshall Henderson who you just don't ever fade (Shabazz Napier has reached this point for me). Hopefully I can have a good tournament and win some more money. Guessing there are going to be an awful lot of props offered. Get some.
Click to expand...
Please look at Marshall Henderson's game logs. Have you ever seen anybody shoot that many 3's?? Never seen anything like it. His home/road scoring splits have always been pretty significant, but with that kind of shooting volume, you're typically hoping he makes <20% of his 3's to have a shot. Playing with fire fading that fruitcake.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/45808/marshall-henderson

Congrats on the profit!!!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TheGooRoo said:
Frostillicus said:
So I finished +6.6u on player props for the pre-tournament year. Disappointed since at one point I was up in the +20s, but I'm happy with a profitable year since this was my first time doing this seriously. I also played a decent amount of half unit bets that I didn't track that I think did well overall (which I'm sure is what everyone thinks so I'll be sure to track those next year). Learned a lot, thanks to a lot of you here, as well. Kind of went off the rails when bovada started offering the huge amount of props and my cards ballooned, but will use that for learnings for next season. Thanks to all who followed and offered input and encouraging words, and thanks to goo roo for reminding me that no matter what the numbers look like there are guys like Marshall Henderson who you just don't ever fade (Shabazz Napier has reached this point for me). Hopefully I can have a good tournament and win some more money. Guessing there are going to be an awful lot of props offered. Get some.
Click to expand...
Please look at Marshall Henderson's game logs. Have you ever seen anybody shoot that many 3's?? Never seen anything like it. His home/road scoring splits have always been pretty significant, but with that kind of shooting volume, you're typically hoping he makes <20% of his 3's to have a shot. Playing with fire fading that fruitcake.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/45808/marshall-henderson

Congrats on the profit!!!
Click to expand...
I always was uncomfortable fading him, but there were times I blindly followed the numbers. Learned a good lesson.

 
Tiger Fan said:
http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-78.htm

Thought this was interesting:

Round #1 Underdogs Still Rule … But Barely

Underdogs are still a better bet than favorites in first round games. Specifically, underdogs are 98-88-6 ATS (53%) over the past six tournaments combined. If you are wondering why dogs rule the roost; refer back to March Madness Trends – Part 1 of a Six Part Series.

The interesting component of this trend is its seesaw nature. Namely, last season underdogs were a bookie busting 19-12-1 ATS (61%) in first round games, compared to 2002 when pups were an unprofitable 14-17-1 ATS (45%) in the opening round. However, in 2001 underdogs were once again profitable at 18-14 ATS (56%). In 2000, dogs were all square at 15-15-2 ATS (50%). In 1999, they were a 56% winning proposition (18-14 ATS) after going just 47% (14-16-2) in 1998.

As this pattern shows, underdogs were profitable every other year (except 2000). Or if you prefer, favorites were profitable every other year (except 2000). A reasonable explanation is that oddsmakers simply adjust based on the prior tournament's outcome. If this is the case, than dogs could be spaded and neutered in the opening round this season after taking the bookmakers to the cleaners in round one last year.

Remember, Vegas is the “City of Fish and Chips. Some poor fish is always losing his chips.†We took this quote from a blackjack book written back in the early 1980’s, but make no mistake; Mr. Shewell’s words directly correlate to the oddsmakers’ ability to fine-tune what has been unsuccessful for them in the past and use it as a profit center in the future. It’s what “the house†is built upon. Always stay a step ahead!
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
wait how old is this article from 2002?

 
got_nugs said:
Doctor Detroit said:
My woman knows nothing about college basketball, she isn't even from the U.S.

So I think she did pretty good with most of her elite 8. Obviously I had some influence in her choices....although I didn't give her any advice.

OU

Wisky

UK

Michigan

UNC

UVa

Tulsa

W. Michigan

Her east bracket is a disaster, With SF Austin, Tulsa and WMU winning a lot and Tulsa to the final four
Click to expand...
OU/UNC final, OU champs.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Don't you have some connection to Oklahoma? ie: school, grew up, slept with a waitress, etc?
Graduate school

 
Yeah, there was some pretty good sized reverse line movement that pointed to a strong nc state play, I just didn't want to be that guy. Thoughts prayers and wishes

 
Frostillicus said:
Christon might be the most passive star player I've ever seen, at least tonight.
Click to expand...
Spent alot of time hunched over with his hands on his knees, that was strange. Missed 2 layups (make them and its a W). Couldn't draw a foul in the lane (averages about 5 ft att, vs. 2 today). Didn't get the shot attempts that he normally does, especially in a loss. Last 3 conference losses avg 20 shot att vs 11 today. Right play wrong result imo.

 
TheGooRoo said:
Frostillicus said:
Christon might be the most passive star player I've ever seen, at least tonight.
Click to expand...
Spent alot of time hunched over with his hands on his knees, that was strange. Missed 2 layups (make them and its a W). Couldn't draw a foul in the lane (averages about 5 ft att, vs. 2 today). Didn't get the shot attempts that he normally does, especially in a loss. Last 3 conference losses avg 20 shot att vs 11 today. Right play wrong result imo.
Click to expand...
Yeah he just seemed completely disengaged. Strange for a tournament game.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Tiger Fan said:
http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-78.htm

Thought this was interesting:

Round #1 Underdogs Still Rule … But Barely

Underdogs are still a better bet than favorites in first round games. Specifically, underdogs are 98-88-6 ATS (53%) over the past six tournaments combined. If you are wondering why dogs rule the roost; refer back to March Madness Trends – Part 1 of a Six Part Series.

The interesting component of this trend is its seesaw nature. Namely, last season underdogs were a bookie busting 19-12-1 ATS (61%) in first round games, compared to 2002 when pups were an unprofitable 14-17-1 ATS (45%) in the opening round. However, in 2001 underdogs were once again profitable at 18-14 ATS (56%). In 2000, dogs were all square at 15-15-2 ATS (50%). In 1999, they were a 56% winning proposition (18-14 ATS) after going just 47% (14-16-2) in 1998.

As this pattern shows, underdogs were profitable every other year (except 2000). Or if you prefer, favorites were profitable every other year (except 2000). A reasonable explanation is that oddsmakers simply adjust based on the prior tournament's outcome. If this is the case, than dogs could be spaded and neutered in the opening round this season after taking the bookmakers to the cleaners in round one last year.

Remember, Vegas is the “City of Fish and Chips. Some poor fish is always losing his chips.†We took this quote from a blackjack book written back in the early 1980’s, but make no mistake; Mr. Shewell’s words directly correlate to the oddsmakers’ ability to fine-tune what has been unsuccessful for them in the past and use it as a profit center in the future. It’s what “the house†is built upon. Always stay a step ahead!
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
wait how old is this article from 2002?
Click to expand...
no idea. A friend linked it to me today. Didn't even register to me to look at the date. nothing to see here...move on now

 
####### guy in my auction league is crying because he got caught on autopilot and ended up spending an extra $ on Lorenzo Cain...it was like the 260th pick :lmao:

 
Heading to South Beach for a bit, will be at the mike miller ring ceremony Heat/Grizz game Friday. My wife says I'll be dressing up as grizzly adams for the game, I say ill just be going in cargo shorts and a t shirt she says it's the same thing I say #### you woman make me a fajita! Just rolled up a few doobs of the funkiest funk ever, will post pics of any and all g-stringed sunsoaking models. Kiddos MRI came back negative so it's time to get loose.

Air Raid #####es!

Speaking of which.....must see movies from your wheelhouse glory days - dazed & confused and clerks. Go!

 
Prop time

at RB Wiscy more wins than kansas +100

Michigan more wins than kansas +100

total # of 1 seeds to make final 4 u1.5 -180

elsewhere

big east u5.5 wins -145

big 12 o8 wins -115

tournament wins by 2 seeds o8.5 -115

pac 12 o7.5 wins +125

Going to have more....

 
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swirvenirvin said:
anyone think SMU comes out soft tomorrow since they didnt make the big dance?
Click to expand...
A lot depends on attendance too. Their home gym was rocking this year which would probably prevent then from sleepwalking, but who knows if people show up for NIT.
 
lumpy19 said:
Prop time

at RB Wiscy more wins than kansas +100

Michigan more wins than kansas +100

total # of 1 seeds to make final 4 u1.5 -180

elsewhere

big east u5.5 wins -145

big 12 o8 wins -115

tournament wins by 2 seeds o8.5 -115

pac 12 o7.5 wins +125

Going to have more....
Click to expand...
I like the will a 13th seed beat a 4th seed in first round NO -140 at RB. Pretty sure Mich. St., and Louisville roll. UCLA over Tulsa and SDSU over NMSU matchups are a little tighter but I feel confident with outright wins. Went the other way on the over/under for number one seeds. +150. Might need a little luck to get there.

 
I really like the Michigan St - Delaware OVER 149. Mich St played much faster in the non-conference, but was slowed down by Big 10 teams. Delaware likes to score period. I got in some, and was planning on betting more, and boom, someone just hit the OVER, and its now 153 (rumored to be Right Angle Sports). I'll wait and see if it comes down.

 
ArbyMelt said:
I really like the Michigan St - Delaware OVER 149. Mich St played much faster in the non-conference, but was slowed down by Big 10 teams. Delaware likes to score period. I got in some, and was planning on betting more, and boom, someone just hit the OVER, and its now 153 (rumored to be Right Angle Sports). I'll wait and see if it comes down.
Click to expand...
It was RAS...grabbed some at 150, some at 150.5 and a skosh more at 152. Totals he bets don't come back down. Hopefully an opportunity to live bet this one.

 
lumpy19 said:
Prop time

at RB Wiscy more wins than kansas +100

Michigan more wins than kansas +100

total # of 1 seeds to make final 4 u1.5 -180

elsewhere

big east u5.5 wins -145

big 12 o8 wins -115

tournament wins by 2 seeds o8.5 -115

pac 12 o7.5 wins +125

Going to have more....
Click to expand...
Duke over Cuse and Creighton over Cuse (both around -130ish) both look good to me too.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
lumpy19 said:
Prop time

at RB Wiscy more wins than kansas +100

Michigan more wins than kansas +100

total # of 1 seeds to make final 4 u1.5 -180

elsewhere

big east u5.5 wins -145

big 12 o8 wins -115

tournament wins by 2 seeds o8.5 -115

pac 12 o7.5 wins +125

Going to have more....
Click to expand...
Duke over Cuse and Creighton over Cuse (both around -130ish) both look good to me too.
Click to expand...
Staying away from cuse. They have the personnel to win the whole thing but they've been so bad lately.

 
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