FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I haven't played any props because they are not up yet. Only play through one local...I've never even had an account with a major sportsbook. Did do well in props these last two weeks, which I never play, so I'll play 'em again when they come out. Won't be much value by then, but whatever. With all of TheGooRoo's success, I thought about opening an account last year, but never did...

Anyway, is anybody betting the Australian Open Final? What a great match that should be. Good value in taking Murray at +140, if anybody's interested, he has a great shot tonight. It's basically a toss-up.

 

[MarshallPlan]

I'm not saying you have to bet props when they come out, but all everyone does is pretty much bet props, so I thought there may be some discussion on possible wagers?

 

[sheerterror]

We don't disagree often Sheer, but i see the Robbie-Melvin fight differently. Robbie was just a dope losing the way he did to Shields (literally just stuck his head out there to be guillotine'd), and i think he knows at this point in his career he can't take too many losses in a row. He is playing the media game, no way he would choose to stand and trade with Melvin.

And how in the world do you hate the Diaz brothers? C'mon 619 (or whatever the hell their area code is they always talk about). has to be one of the funniest things to see. For me, so far i have:

biggest play is a parlay of Diaz and Walker

also have a .25 unit play on Nagy because you can't trust a 47 year old guy to have a chin. But i watched Nagy's fights, my God he is terrible.

.25 unit on Sims at +700: i think i am throwing money away here, but those odds were way off

.25 unit on Connen: Cyborg is just nasty, but at +450 it was worth a shot.

.5 unit on Lawlor

Basically, if Diaz and Hershel win i make some money. my small unit plays are where i go wrong on most of these cards, but even if the 3 .25 units all lose, which they should, i still do pretty well.

I don't trust Lawler in the slightest bit stick to a gameplan of not banging with Manhoef. Manhoef also hasn't been KO'd in an MMA fight in I believe 5+ years, so I'm not sure Lawler is the guy who is going to do it - nor does he have the grappling accumen to submit Manhoef like Filho and Mousasi have in recent fights. Something that's probably flown under the radar a bit is that Manhoef has been training with American Top Team to really round out his game: http://www.sherdog.com/videos/recent/Manho...Ground-Gap-2188As for your other plays, I like the value on Coennen, but I think you might as well set your money on fire with those plays on Nagy and Sims. I know it's value plays because the lines on Walker and especially Lashley are extremely inflated, but save your half unit bud. Classic example of an organization bringing in cans (Sims at least has name recognition, but is absolutely atrocious) to get the casual MMA fans jacked up about the pseudo-celebrity fighters on Strikeforce's roster after they [likely] tear those guys apart.

 

[modogg]

We don't disagree often Sheer, but i see the Robbie-Melvin fight differently. Robbie was just a dope losing the way he did to Shields (literally just stuck his head out there to be guillotine'd), and i think he knows at this point in his career he can't take too many losses in a row. He is playing the media game, no way he would choose to stand and trade with Melvin.

And how in the world do you hate the Diaz brothers? C'mon 619 (or whatever the hell their area code is they always talk about). has to be one of the funniest things to see. For me, so far i have:

biggest play is a parlay of Diaz and Walker

also have a .25 unit play on Nagy because you can't trust a 47 year old guy to have a chin. But i watched Nagy's fights, my God he is terrible.

.25 unit on Sims at +700: i think i am throwing money away here, but those odds were way off

.25 unit on Connen: Cyborg is just nasty, but at +450 it was worth a shot.

.5 unit on Lawlor

Basically, if Diaz and Hershel win i make some money. my small unit plays are where i go wrong on most of these cards, but even if the 3 .25 units all lose, which they should, i still do pretty well.

I don't trust Lawler in the slightest bit stick to a gameplan of not banging with Manhoef. Manhoef also hasn't been KO'd in an MMA fight in I believe 5+ years, so I'm not sure Lawler is the guy who is going to do it - nor does he have the grappling accumen to submit Manhoef like Filho and Mousasi have in recent fights. Something that's probably flown under the radar a bit is that Manhoef has been training with American Top Team to really round out his game: http://www.sherdog.com/videos/recent/Manho...Ground-Gap-2188As for your other plays, I like the value on Coennen, but I think you might as well set your money on fire with those plays on Nagy and Sims. I know it's value plays because the lines on Walker and especially Lashley are extremely inflated, but save your half unit bud. Classic example of an organization bringing in cans (Sims at least has name recognition, but is absolutely atrocious) to get the casual MMA fans jacked up about the pseudo-celebrity fighters on Strikeforce's roster after they [likely] tear those guys apart.

I couldn't agree more, but they were late night plays i made a few weeks ago, and unfortunately with these situations it isn't easy to buy out of them. My jsutification at the time is that i could see Sims possibly catch Lashley in a guillotine or something, some rookie mistake. I certainly wouldn't bet on Lashley with those odds, just so many things could happen. And with Nagy, my God he is terrible. I know Hershel is not human with his conditioning, but general conditioning vs. fight conditioning is different. His training at AKA certainly makes me think Hershel will be legit, but a guy stepping into a professional fight at 47, you have to wonder what kind of chin he is bringing, especially with those 4 oz. gloves. They always talk about a puncher's chance in MMA, and i think when you put a 47 year old in with not a lot of live fighting experience (he trained hard, but did they ever really hit him, without gear or anything?), who knows how he may react when getting really punched for the first time. That being said, yes it is likely money being thrown away because the right move would have been to stay away from both fights if i was that concerned, but i will win a little over 2 units if the Diaz parlay works, and i will likely play some more. I was hoping for some odds on the undercard, but i guess there won't be any

 

[PatsFanCT]

I don't follow MMA, but how can Herschel Walker be favored? Is the guy he fighting just as old? Has he ever faught before?

 

[lumpy19]

I'm not saying you have to bet props when they come out, but all everyone does is pretty much bet props, so I thought there may be some discussion on possible wagers?

The only prop I've played so far is the longest FG u44.5. Greek has about 4 billion props up and honestly i spend enough time every day betting NBA props and NCAAB stuff that i haven't had time for super bowl props.

 

[prosopis]

bodog has a lot of props up right now.

I maxed this one on the underSuper Bowl XLIV -How many current NFL Players will be arrested during Super Bowl Week? Player must be on a current NFL Roster to count towards wager. Arrests must happen between Monday, February 1st at 12:01am to Sunday, February 7th at 11:59 pm.

What was the number on this?

Buehller?

 

[lumpy19]

bodog has a lot of props up right now.

I maxed this one on the underSuper Bowl XLIV -How many current NFL Players will be arrested during Super Bowl Week? Player must be on a current NFL Roster to count towards wager. Arrests must happen between Monday, February 1st at 12:01am to Sunday, February 7th at 11:59 pm.

What was the number on this?

Buehller?

whoops sorry, number was u0.5(-160)

 

[Raider Nation]

For any of you degenerates ( ) who are going to dabble in the Pro Bowl tomorrow, a few thoughts.

Don't worry... I'm still behaving myself. My TV is always on the NFL Network in the background while I work.

I have seen four hours of AFC practice this week and three hours of NFC practice this week.

First, it seems to me like this NFC is taking this more seriously. They are repping their packages over and over and over until they get it right, and I don't see a lot of kidding around. The opposite is true on the AFC side. Guys are clowning each other, interviewing each other, and running through the plays half ###. Also, Ohco Stinko is going to kick FGs, punt, and play defensive back.

Okay, now... one of the few events I've had some success with in my life is Pro Bowl betting, believe it or not. The MAIN key typically is QB play. The cube is never more important than in a circus game like this.

Here are the AFC starters, with the plays being called by Norv Turner:

Matt Schaub -

David Garrard -

Vince Young -

Here are the NFC starters, with the plays being called by Jason Garrett.

Aaron Rodgers -

Tony Romo -

Donovan McNabb -

Given everything above, I see the NFC -2½ as a pretty reasonable play. Would also lean to the over 57.

I see one prop which I like a bit. AFC to have the longest TD in the game (-115 each way).

In a game like this, it's human nature for the defense to play at half speed. That is a BAD formula when Chris Johnson is on the other team. He could easily rip off an 80-yarder. And if he doesn't break a long one, Joshua Cribbs might do so on a punt or kick return.

The biggest threats on the NFC side to win this prop are DeSean Jackson and Adrian Peterson.

 

[MarshallPlan]

I think this years pro bowl is entirely different then in the years past. First of all, you have TONS of players sitting out. That means players like Schaub, Young, and Garrard are the starting qbs for the AFC when it's possible neither one will ever be in the game again. There are tons of guys from each side not playing and therefore giving other guys a chance to play in the game.

I think the guys who normally wouldn't play in the game and now get a chance to play will play hard. And if the majority of players take this game seriously then it goes way Under. I think a big advantage goes to the AFC CBs of Asomugha and Revis in which there will be no blitzing and all coverage.

I lean afc +3 but like the Under quite a bit, especially with Ocho maybe kicking some fgs and xps.

 

[modogg]

I haven't played any props because they are not up yet. Only play through one local...I've never even had an account with a major sportsbook. Did do well in props these last two weeks, which I never play, so I'll play 'em again when they come out. Won't be much value by then, but whatever. With all of TheGooRoo's success, I thought about opening an account last year, but never did...Anyway, is anybody betting the Australian Open Final? What a great match that should be. Good value in taking Murray at +140, if anybody's interested, he has a great shot tonight. It's basically a toss-up.

In. Murray is +175 on sportsbook, so i will tail along.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Does anyone think all of the Reggie Bush numbers are too low? I do. He usually is at 62-65 yards per game, both rec and rush (at least he was the last 2 weeks). In this game, Greek has him at 26' rush and 29' rec. That's 56 yds. I really think both should be higher. Reasons are:

This is the Super Bowl - in many reg. season games he is somewhat protected as they do not want to give him a heavy workload and want to keep him fresh. This game not so much.

The Colts play a lot of zone, I see Bush and the RBs getting a lot of check down looks from Brees.

I have 8 Reggis bets on the game already.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I haven't played any props because they are not up yet. Only play through one local...I've never even had an account with a major sportsbook. Did do well in props these last two weeks, which I never play, so I'll play 'em again when they come out. Won't be much value by then, but whatever. With all of TheGooRoo's success, I thought about opening an account last year, but never did...Anyway, is anybody betting the Australian Open Final? What a great match that should be. Good value in taking Murray at +140, if anybody's interested, he has a great shot tonight. It's basically a toss-up.

In. Murray is +175 on sportsbook, so i will tail along.

Wow, that is a GREAT line you got. My local has it at 180/150, and I just looked at Sportsbook and they have it at 200/160 now, so you are stoked with that.I'm going to wait and see if I can squeeze out 10 cents or more...

 

[lumpy19]

I think i'm going to be sick.....played a middle earlier today, 1100 on each side......except I apparently typed in 110 and not 1100 on one of the bets.....of course the side i bet 110 on won

$900 typo

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Holy crap, lumpy, that's hilarious. Sorry man.

Get it back on Murray.

 

[modogg]

We don't disagree often Sheer, but i see the Robbie-Melvin fight differently. Robbie was just a dope losing the way he did to Shields (literally just stuck his head out there to be guillotine'd), and i think he knows at this point in his career he can't take too many losses in a row. He is playing the media game, no way he would choose to stand and trade with Melvin.

And how in the world do you hate the Diaz brothers? C'mon 619 (or whatever the hell their area code is they always talk about). has to be one of the funniest things to see. For me, so far i have:

biggest play is a parlay of Diaz and Walker

also have a .25 unit play on Nagy because you can't trust a 47 year old guy to have a chin. But i watched Nagy's fights, my God he is terrible.

.25 unit on Sims at +700: i think i am throwing money away here, but those odds were way off

.25 unit on Connen: Cyborg is just nasty, but at +450 it was worth a shot.

.5 unit on Lawlor

Basically, if Diaz and Hershel win i make some money. my small unit plays are where i go wrong on most of these cards, but even if the 3 .25 units all lose, which they should, i still do pretty well.

I don't trust Lawler in the slightest bit stick to a gameplan of not banging with Manhoef. Manhoef also hasn't been KO'd in an MMA fight in I believe 5+ years, so I'm not sure Lawler is the guy who is going to do it - nor does he have the grappling accumen to submit Manhoef like Filho and Mousasi have in recent fights. Something that's probably flown under the radar a bit is that Manhoef has been training with American Top Team to really round out his game: http://www.sherdog.com/videos/recent/Manho...Ground-Gap-2188

well, you were right about Lawlor's gameplan, he must have been smacked in the head too many times to think he could stand and trade with Manhoef.

 

[Man In The Box]

Does anyone think all of the Reggie Bush numbers are too low?

I haven't bet any props yet, but this was one of the first things I noticed too.

 

[Tiger Fan]

I think this years pro bowl is entirely different then in the years past. First of all, you have TONS of players sitting out. That means players like Schaub, Young, and Garrard are the starting qbs for the AFC when it's possible neither one will ever be in the game again. There are tons of guys from each side not playing and therefore giving other guys a chance to play in the game. I think the guys who normally wouldn't play in the game and now get a chance to play will play hard. And if the majority of players take this game seriously then it goes way Under. I think a big advantage goes to the AFC CBs of Asomugha and Revis in which there will be no blitzing and all coverage. I lean afc +3 but like the Under quite a bit, especially with Ocho maybe kicking some fgs and xps.

FWIW, I ran some #s for the past 24 probowls:Only 7 have hit 57 points or higher15 of them have had a final difference of 9 points or less.I'm gonna tease AFC and the under for the helluvit

 

[Tiger Fan]

For anyone who likes the Saints:

Saints to win by 1-5: +600

Saints to win by 6-10: +900

 

[Tiger Fan]

Talked to my buddy yesterday whose BIL is a local bookie....said so much money coming in on the Saints (obviously) that he's had to keep the spread down at +4.

 

[SanAntonioHolmes]

USF +3 -110(1x)

 

[culdeus]

Talked to my buddy yesterday whose BIL is a local bookie....said so much money coming in on the Saints (obviously) that he's had to keep the spread down at +4.

This is an issue in Dallas, but they use these websites now that set their lines off Greek. So they can be 85% Dallas or more and can't move the line at all because of the service they use.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Worth a shot here. Freeney un .5 sacks +110 at bodog. Not even sure he is going to play and if he does it's almost certain he will not be 100%. If he does, how much will he even play?

 

[SanAntonioHolmes]

Virginia +6 -110(1x)

Clemson -3.5 -110(1x)

 

[MarshallPlan]

Another one at bodog that is surprisingly still there. Lance Moore 1st grab un 9' yds -135. This is un 6' -155 at the greek, so a middle is there for 10 cents and 3 yds if you want it. I bet this at -130 this morning.

 

[Raider Nation]

The Cavs are 11 of 13 on 3-point shots......

IN THE 1ST QUARTER!

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I guess I'll just go with RN's practice report this week. NFC's good enough for me.

Under, also...

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Word is Freeney has torn ankle ligaments

Even if he plays, no way is he near his usual performance level

That's a big hit to the Indy D

 

[Raider Nation]

I guess I'll just go with RN's practice report this week. NFC's good enough for me.

Under, also...

This total is about 10 points less than it normally is. Look at it as a gift head start.

NOBODY on defense is gonna give a #### about this game.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

NFC U31

 

[PatsFanCT]

I think the AFC smokes 'em. Better RB's, better WR's, and the two best cover corners in the league. AFC Moneyline for me.

 

[Raider Nation]

NFC U31

Where do you see that? It's 28½ at the Greek.I think the NFC scores 42 by themselves.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I just put 2 bucks on CJ's first rush being under 3 1/2 yards. +130

 

[prosopis]

Went with U58 tonight.

 

[Raider Nation]

awesome...

the "pass rushers" stand up at the snap and jog in place until the play is over.

 

[prosopis]

awesome...the "pass rushers" stand up at the snap and jog in place until the play is over.

Now I remember why I have not watched one of these games for 20 years or so. I hate myself for betting on this sheet.

 

[MarshallPlan]

I think this years pro bowl is entirely different then in the years past. First of all, you have TONS of players sitting out. That means players like Schaub, Young, and Garrard are the starting qbs for the AFC when it's possible neither one will ever be in the game again. There are tons of guys from each side not playing and therefore giving other guys a chance to play in the game. I think the guys who normally wouldn't play in the game and now get a chance to play will play hard. And if the majority of players take this game seriously then it goes way Under. I think a big advantage goes to the AFC CBs of Asomugha and Revis in which there will be no blitzing and all coverage. I lean afc +3 but like the Under quite a bit, especially with Ocho maybe kicking some fgs and xps.

So the Under didn't work out and yes I had nfc un 31 like someone else did. It was at sportsbook. In the past few years wasn't there more running plays? Just from the few box scores I looked at it certainly seemed like it. I think the nfl did a good job of moving the game, heck I watched the 2h and it was the first pro bowl game I have ever watched.

 

[lumpy19]

Another one at bodog that is surprisingly still there. Lance Moore 1st grab un 9' yds -135. This is un 6' -155 at the greek, so a middle is there for 10 cents and 3 yds if you want it. I bet this at -130 this morning.

Thanks for posting this and the Freeney prop, was able to grab both. The news on Freeney is really bad but because it's the super bowl and according to ESPN he has a "very high pain threshold" i'm optimistic he's going to see the field.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Lumpy - I think Freeney gives it a go and plays, but we will see. I am hoping so.

Anyway, some more thoughts. Somebody at the Greek likes Wayne un 6 rec. Moron, go bet it somewhere else at -105 not -145. I bet Wayne un 6' -130 rec at a local book and then bet him ov 6 +135 at the Greek yesterday. I check today and it's now +140. Free money for those with a sb and greek acct as sb has un 6 -105 and greek has ov 6 +140. 35 cents is quite a bit.

I think it's best to take the 6s out there now, as I don't think we are going to see better. Same thing happened last year, iirc, as AZ numbers were best a few days before the game.

Other bets that are probably good and still available.

Un 2' players to have a pass attempt - I bet this at -260 at greek, Pinny has -250 so it may drop a bit. Nobody besides Peyton threw a meaningful pass the entire year except for Addai (threw a td) and Wayne (threw an int). For the Saints it was Brunell on a fake fg and that's it. And the sack number is very low, so a very small possibility we get a qb injured, and with the small spread a low possibility of a qb getting pulled - plus its Peyton Manning and Drew Brees!!

Shockey ov 12' longest rec - just from looking at numbers I really like this, but the numbers haven't moved one bit in my direction so I am skeptical.

Shortest td un 1' yds - this will likely get better and is a good hedge if you like Under. I laid -120 and very good chance we see better leading up to the game. True odds on this are like -170.

I posted this earlier in the week. No fgs at sia +2000 is the bet of the super bowl. Likely a loser, but great value.

I have many other bets but most of the numbers or bets are no longer up. I think I bet too much on this game right out of the gates. Like last year, I sense myself needing more money this weekend, but we shall see.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Pretty interesting daily special on Sportsbook today.

Wager on the Daily Highest Scoring Team prop for tonight's NBA games. If the winning selection scores at least 125 points for their game, winnings will be doubled up to $50.00 for this specific prop.

I took the Suns at +350 for the hell of it.

 

[lumpy19]

I think it's best to take the 6s out there now, as I don't think we are going to see better. Same thing happened last year, iirc, as AZ numbers were best a few days before the game.

pinny just went to 4.5 and greek to 5....i don't think it will happen but if this manages to get back to 4 i'll be on it.

 

[lumpy19]

Syracuse -15(-110) played this last night, looks like it moved to 15.5 or 16, still like it at that number. SU came out real flat against Depaul on Saturday on the road. They managed to squeak out a win and I think they rebound tonight at home. Providence is pretty bad. 15 seems like a big number but the total on this game is 169.5, not expecting too much defense tonight.

 

[MarshallPlan]

I think it's best to take the 6s out there now, as I don't think we are going to see better. Same thing happened last year, iirc, as AZ numbers were best a few days before the game.

pinny just went to 4.5 and greek to 5....i don't think it will happen but if this manages to get back to 4 i'll be on it.

Why not just take the best colts ml price? I myself just grabbed +6 -115 - still searching for more +6 but it's not really out there. Saints bettors need to bet the game now.

 

[Otis]

MasterCard will no longer let me deposit into Bodog. I need a new site to place a super bowl wager (For an amount somewhere between $1k and several k).

What is the best site to do this at that will accept a Mastercard and will require the least work in ultimately collecting a payout.

Thanks.

 

[lumpy19]

MasterCard will no longer let me deposit into Bodog. I need a new site to place a super bowl wager (For an amount somewhere between $1k and several k).What is the best site to do this at that will accept a Mastercard and will require the least work in ultimately collecting a payout.Thanks.

I would try greek first although I don't think your card will work there......next I would try sportsbook.com and if that doesn't work I would try bookmaker last. sportsbook has 1 free payout/30 days, bookmaker does not.

 

[lumpy19]

I think it's best to take the 6s out there now, as I don't think we are going to see better. Same thing happened last year, iirc, as AZ numbers were best a few days before the game.

pinny just went to 4.5 and greek to 5....i don't think it will happen but if this manages to get back to 4 i'll be on it.

Why not just take the best colts ml price? I myself just grabbed +6 -115 - still searching for more +6 but it's not really out there. Saints bettors need to bet the game now.

I got +6(-105) last week at sportsbetting and a large play at +7.5(-140)I'm looking to layoff some of the +7.5 bet and go for a middle, I have more than I'm comfortable with on the saints right now. ML is the better bet but it's not what I'm looking for.

 

[lumpy19]

This is why I thegreek. Unlike sportsbook.com cutting me cold turkey with no explanation I just got an email from thegreek stating that I'm betting too many props and 50% of my wagers over the next 2 weeks need to be straight wagers. I'll have to be more careful there now but at least I have an explanation and a way to fix it

almost a week into my little test period at thegreek, just tallied up my numbersWagered on props - 118 unitsResults +17 unitsWagerd on sides/totals - 176 unitsResults -11units3 more bets on sides than totals at this point. Gotta hope this is exactly what they were looking for, giving back some of my props profit on sides. I can't lose those props!!I love looking at numbers like this, I wish I had an easy way of tracking every wager I make so I could find the holes.

Assuming I'll hear from thegreek in the next few days....I did way more than necessary and it actually worked out well for me.Wagered on props 286 unitsProfit +15 unitsWagered on sides 517 unitsProfit +23 unitsHope they hold up their end of the bargain and let me keep betting props there.

 

[culdeus]

517u on sides? Jesus. I don't think I've plowed that much into sides in the last three years. You are an animal. I bow down to you, sir.

 

[MarshallPlan]

MasterCard will no longer let me deposit into Bodog. I need a new site to place a super bowl wager (For an amount somewhere between $1k and several k).What is the best site to do this at that will accept a Mastercard and will require the least work in ultimately collecting a payout.Thanks.

Did you try to call bodog and deposit with your mastercard?

 

[Otis]

MasterCard will no longer let me deposit into Bodog. I need a new site to place a super bowl wager (For an amount somewhere between $1k and several k).What is the best site to do this at that will accept a Mastercard and will require the least work in ultimately collecting a payout.Thanks.

Did you try to call bodog and deposit with your mastercard?

They sent out an e-mail last week indicating that they have been experiencing problems with MasterCard and that they no longer work. I had been depositing using various MasterCards many times over many months, and never had a problem. This morning none worked. I called my credit card company to see if it was a fraud hold on my card or something, and they didn't even see the charge attempt on their end. MasterCard must be blocking Bodog now.