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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

tonydead said:
Raider Nation said:
LOCO said:
So like All in for heat game 6???
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I'm not a fan of playing NBA pointspreads -- been backdoored too many times. :oldunsure:

But this is shaping up as a monster ML play for me. Miami knows they can't risk going back to Indiana for a game 7. I'll wait for nugs to give the official green light though.
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This. No way the all stars align for the Pacers in Miami like they did last night. Plus I hate the Heat (sorry Nugs) so I'd be willing to pay several units just to see a game 7 with the Pacers having all the momentum. Win-Win for me.
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You're dead to me, Tony.

 
2 UFC events this weekend. not sure of the times but i think both Saturday. i know i will have more than this, but for now:

Munoz +260

Dalloway +160

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Tiger Fan said:
Tiger Fan said:
I'm in Canada and will be watching the game tonight with a bunch of Canucks from work. Gimme a play
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bump
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value is on Montreal tonight.

I'm leaning Under as well but am scared to play it after the way the last game went.

I like NYR U32.5 SOG at SB. (saves line is 27.5 for Tokarski at BV)

I like Lundqvist U29.5 saves at BV (SOG line is 29.5 for Canadiens at SB).

nice middle opportunities available on both.
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NIce calls all around. hit the middle on NYR U Tokarski O. :hifive:

 
LOCO said:
spurs are winning today. pops will make adjustments and they are at home. they are winning today. and the heat will win tomorrow.

2 team parlay

spurs

heat

3 units.
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Good call! Now its a bunch of money on the heat close to even money. win-win-win

 
Ever been to a Nevada sports book and just stared at the odds board? Of course not — you have better things to do, such as attend pool parties.Well, should you pay attention to that brightly colored board, you may see the odds move on a game or two, maybe a line or a total changing by a half-point or so.

So what causes odds to change? Well, any number of things. Sometimes, though, it’s the simplest answer — a big bet.

This brings us to the case of the Cleveland Browns’ Super Bowl odds at the MGM Resorts International sports books in Nevada. Cleveland, once 200-to-1 to win the title, is now 30-to-1 at the MGM books, according to David Purdum of BettingTalk.com.

MGM oddsmaker Jay Rood told Betting Talk that a “four figure” wager on the Browns last week caused MGM to slash its odds from 100-to-1 all way down to 30-to-1. Also, Rood indicated to Betting Talk that wagering on the Browns had picked up since the draft, when the Browns made a major splash by selecting quarterback Johnny Manziel No. 22 overall.

It’s important to note that future book odds — especially with long shots like Cleveland — can be more a reflection of the sports book’s potential liability on the team than anything else. In the end, oddsmakers have to adjust prices to manage risk. And not every Las Vegas sports book has the Browns that low of a price, as Betting Talk notes.

Nevertheless, it’s fascinating to think that somewhere out there, someone is holding a Browns ticket that will pay six figures if Cleveland wins its all.

Believeland, indeed.
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I wish this dummy would have taken me out for beer, lobster and strippers instead of flushing that cash.

 
4 figures = $1,000

200:1 = $200,000

a Vegas book wouldn't move the odds that much over $200k I assume.

the article mentions a 6-figure payday. even at $999,999 I'm surprised they'd move the line that much. seems like they should want to bring in more money on a team like that.

 
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Raider Nation said:
Ever been to a Nevada sports book and just stared at the odds board? Of course not — you have better things to do, such as attend pool parties.Well, should you pay attention to that brightly colored board, you may see the odds move on a game or two, maybe a line or a total changing by a half-point or so.

So what causes odds to change? Well, any number of things. Sometimes, though, it’s the simplest answer — a big bet.

This brings us to the case of the Cleveland Browns’ Super Bowl odds at the MGM Resorts International sports books in Nevada. Cleveland, once 200-to-1 to win the title, is now 30-to-1 at the MGM books, according to David Purdum of BettingTalk.com.

MGM oddsmaker Jay Rood told Betting Talk that a “four figure” wager on the Browns last week caused MGM to slash its odds from 100-to-1 all way down to 30-to-1. Also, Rood indicated to Betting Talk that wagering on the Browns had picked up since the draft, when the Browns made a major splash by selecting quarterback Johnny Manziel No. 22 overall.

It’s important to note that future book odds — especially with long shots like Cleveland — can be more a reflection of the sports book’s potential liability on the team than anything else. In the end, oddsmakers have to adjust prices to manage risk. And not every Las Vegas sports book has the Browns that low of a price, as Betting Talk notes.

Nevertheless, it’s fascinating to think that somewhere out there, someone is holding a Browns ticket that will pay six figures if Cleveland wins its all.

Believeland, indeed.
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I wish this dummy would have taken me out for beer, lobster and strippers instead of flushing that cash.
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"Thoughts on potential Josh Gordon suspension?"

No comment.

:tinfoilhat:

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
4 figures = $1,000

200:1 = $200,000

a Vegas book wouldn't move the odds that much over $200k I assume.

the article mentions a 6-figure payday. even at $999,999 I'm surprised they'd move the line that much. seems like they should want to bring in more money on a team like that.
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200k is a lot of exposure for a vegas book IMO. no facts to back it up other than a move from 200:1 to 30:1 Since the rams won the SB in 2000 the vegas books have been offering pretty horrible odds on SB winners. There was an article about it a few years ago.

 
This going on a small sample size of four games. But I got 3-1 SU and 4-0 O/U querying the database, which goes back to 2006, for the team in the situation the Hawks are in tonight: playing in G6 away, coming off a home win after three consecutive losses. The most recent result was last year on May 27, 2013, when the Hawks won 4-3 at Detroit. The final result in the four games was: 4-2, 4-2, 3-4, 4-3. link

o5 -111
Blackhawks +125
Blackhawks Over 2½ +120
Blackhawks Over 3½ +310

 
tonydead said:
LOCO said:
spurs are winning today. pops will make adjustments and they are at home. they are winning today. and the heat will win tomorrow.

2 team parlay

spurs

heat

3 units.
Click to expand...
Good call! Now its a bunch of money on the heat close to even money. win-win-win
Click to expand...
Sprinkle some on Pacers +8 to hope for a middle?

 
some value out there again tonight on hockey shots/save props.

I like the Bovada lines better but there is a nice middle opportunity if you play both.

Quick U29 saves (BV) / Blackhawks O28.5 SOG (SB)

Crawford U30.5 saves (BV) / Kings O30.5 SOG (SB)

 
lumpy19 said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
4 figures = $1,000

200:1 = $200,000

a Vegas book wouldn't move the odds that much over $200k I assume.

the article mentions a 6-figure payday. even at $999,999 I'm surprised they'd move the line that much. seems like they should want to bring in more money on a team like that.
Click to expand...
200k is a lot of exposure for a vegas book IMO. no facts to back it up other than a move from 200:1 to 30:1 Since the rams won the SB in 2000 the vegas books have been offering pretty horrible odds on SB winners. There was an article about it a few years ago.
Click to expand...
Throw in the fact that like all futures they get to sit on the money all year and its enough for me to skip those kind of bets.

 
tonydead said:
tonydead said:
LOCO said:
spurs are winning today. pops will make adjustments and they are at home. they are winning today. and the heat will win tomorrow.

2 team parlay

spurs

heat

3 units.
Click to expand...
Good call! Now its a bunch of money on the heat close to even money. win-win-win
Click to expand...
Sprinkle some on Pacers +8 to hope for a middle?
Click to expand...
On it. C'mon middleAlso like the heat total over 95.

 
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LOCO said:
It's it like a rule. Fade the guy coming off a no hitter.

Pirates +116
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Pirates tt o 3 -130

Chain, please give me data for runs scored against a pitcher in his start immediately following a no-hitter. Preferably against line of 3 and 3.5. Thank you

ETA: I don't have all of the data but i read that the starters era is right around 3.5 and 96 of 167 starts following a no-no have been quality starts.

 
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Totals I played last night @ 5d 1/4u each:

MIN/NYY u9 -120

KC/Tor o9 -112

ATL/MIA o7 -112

TB/BOS u8 +102

SD/CWS u8.5 +105

CIN/AZ u8.5 +102

LAA/OAK o7 +105

DET/SEA o7 +113

PIT/LAD o7 -105

 
LOCO said:
tonydead said:
tonydead said:
LOCO said:
spurs are winning today. pops will make adjustments and they are at home. they are winning today. and the heat will win tomorrow.

2 team parlay

spurs

heat

3 units.
Click to expand...
Good call! Now its a bunch of money on the heat close to even money. win-win-win
Click to expand...
Sprinkle some on Pacers +8 to hope for a middle?
Click to expand...
On it. C'mon middleAlso like the heat total over 95.
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In! This game is going to be AWESOME!

 
TheGooRoo said:
LOCO said:
It's it like a rule. Fade the guy coming off a no hitter.

Pirates +116
Click to expand...
Pirates tt o 3 -130

Chain, please give me data for runs scored against a pitcher in his start immediately following a no-hitter. Preferably against line of 3 and 3.5. Thank you

ETA: I don't have all of the data but i read that the starters era is right around 3.5 and 96 of 167 starts following a no-no have been quality starts.
Click to expand...
Still a play @ 3.5 +105?

 
The database goes back to 2004, so there were 99 results of "starter runs allowed after allowing zero hits in his previous start." You're not going to be thrilled. The database does not keep track of team totals. It came out to an average of 2.92 ±2.06 runs allowed in the subsequent game. link The database does keep track of quality starts, so let me know what else to pull up/filter results by, different ideas, etc..

 
Those results are the number of runs allowed by the starting pitcher, not the total number of runs scored by the opposing team (starter runs allowed + bullpen runs allowed).

 
Good Posting Judge said:
tjnc09 said:
Totals I played last night @ 5d 1/4u each:

MIN/NYY u9 -120

KC/Tor o9 -112

ATL/MIA o7 -112

TB/BOS u8 +102

SD/CWS u8.5 +105

CIN/AZ u8.5 +102

LAA/OAK o7 +105

DET/SEA o7 +113

PIT/LAD o7 -105
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What's your record (non-posteds are OK) on totals so far?
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75-55 +14.2u (full 1u plays) over 17 days. I fixed the sides, but need to go see how they fared over the same 17 day sample.

 
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Tiger Fan said:
Chain - I don't think Greg maddux ever threw a no hitter. Did you reflect minimum 9IP in your query?
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Cool. I need to do that and will also add a column with the total number of runs the opposing team scored, the number of innings the starter pitched, ERA, and average ERA.

 
I'm taking CHI (+130) and U5 (-105) tonight.

Assuming it will be very tight like last night's game 6.

Also put a little on Yes OT +290.

 
@DanLambskin: @Alex_Avila_13: 50 retweets by game time and I'll get a hit tonight. #support #retweet #gotigers

Can you hit 2 home runs like Paul O'Neil?

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm taking CHI (+130) and U5 (-105) tonight.

Assuming it will be very tight like last night's game 6.

Also put a little on Yes OT +290.
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I'm already rooting for CHI -- took them +550 to win the series before Game 5. But I took o5 tonight.

3-1

6-2

4-3

5-2

5-4

Seems like the Kings played every game 2-1 at home during the season, but I'm not bucking this trend.

 
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