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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

The Ref said:
For what it's worth I LOVE the way they do challenges in the AFL. Camera and microphone right over the shoulders of the refs while watching a big screan TV of the replays.
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Not bad action junkie TV for a night that didn't offer much. There is the ASG tomorrow night, UFC on Wednesday, and then what on Thursday? Maybe some NBA summer league. Warriors/Lakers tonight took it down to the wire and almost forced a second overtime. Maybe some soccer. Maybe another Arena League game. We got this. Thanks for rolling w/ me on the VooDoo tonight.

 
When our dude caught it in the EZ and flew over the wall onto the concrete and they still called it a TD I knew we had it licked.

 
John Bender said:
Maybe the thing to look at after getting felted to a river 2 outer 2 weeks in a row is why I'm getting that pot committed in those positions with relatively deep stacks.

I'm tight / very aggressive (and that was my table image too which makes this guy calling me on the turn even more frustrating ). If I'm in a hand to the turn I've usually got at least 15 percent of my stack in.

I need to figure out how or why I end up so pot committed into hands. Probably need to study betting strategy only for a few weeks. :shrug:
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You got it in good. That's the best a winning player can hope for. You're better off being you than the other guy who's calling off with a pocket pair to a paired board/overcard. You ended up in a hand like this because you were playing a nut and you had a good hand. That's all it takes.

If you want to reduce variance, maybe play with a shorter stack? 200bb is a lot, my comfort level is generally 100bb, but obviously milage varies. There are some guys like Greenstein who only play short-stacked, so that their opponents are more often pot-committed when he comes over the top.

 
I like this year's NL pitchers a lot better than last year's. They had Harvey, Kershaw, Corbin, and Lee last year. Corbin and Lee both gave up runs, along with Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel might actually be a liability for the NL. He came in in the 8th inning (who's idea was that?) and allowed a run on three hits last year. And FWIW he has allowed 2 runs in 2.2 IP with HPU Gary Cederstrom. The AL had Scherzer, Sale, Felix, and Moore last year - in that order. Those dudes were solid and I think that was a good way to roll them out. They put Scherzer out there to start the game, and he was so hot last season. Then they followed up with Sale for 2 innings. That is a good way to turn bats cold right there. No surprise the NL scored 0 runs the whole game. I don't really like what the AL is bringing to the table this year. And I don't like that Felix is starting the game. He has allowed 15 runs in 25.1 IP with Cederstrom behind home plate. Here is every pitcher's breakdown with Cederstrom. They are small samples, but data nonetheless:

Name ERA IP RYu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers - - -Max Scherzer, RHP, Detroit Tigers 0.87 20.2 2Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners 4.62 25.1 15Jon Lester, LHP, Boston Red Sox 5.54 13 8Fernando Rodney, RHP, Seattle Mariners 9.82 3.2 4Scott Kazmir, LHP, Oakland Athletics 3.13 31.2 13Mark Buehrle, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays 3.19 48 17Sean Doolittle, LHP, Oakland Athletics 0 1 0Greg Holland, RHP, Kansas City Royals 1.59 5.2 1Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota Twins 0 4 0Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees - - - Name ERA IP RJohnny Cueto, RHP, Cincinnati Reds 1.29 7 1Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers 0.52 34.2 3Zack Greinke, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers 7.25 22.1 19Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants 3 15 5Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals 2.97 33.1 11Tyson Ross, RHP, San Diego Padres - - -Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Miami Marlins 2.57 7 2Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves - - -Craig Kimbrel, RHP Atlanta Braves 6.75 2.2 2Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds 5.79 4.2 3Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers 1.64 11 3Tony Watson, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.5 2 1Pat Neshek, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals 3.86 2.1 1I think the NL side is where the runs are going to come from. I really like their side over anything else. Kimbrel lurking around doesn't make me feel good about the later innings though. And that's a shame. I don't know about Yu either. He has been an All-Star all three years, but this will be his first actual appearance in the game. And he is a meticulous dude. All-Star game doesn't necessarily fit into his routine. For example, he was supposed to start on the 3rd at Camden but got scratched due to rain. It messed up his routine. He ended up starting the next day and giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (1 HR) and walked 2 dudes (he did strike out 6 though). But Yu's team is majorly sucking right now. The Rangers freakin' suck, bro. Rangers don't have the All-Star mentality, imo.

 
Not to step n your toes bro, but I saw that in Felix's four starts with this umpire he gave up first-inning runs in two of them. It's ben said I lean too much on ump stats though. Will definitely be on the NL w/ you. I am thinking that there is a chance the triples prop might offer a better price before first pitch, especially at 5d - their prop lines like that move around a ton when their computers try to compensate. And the public might have the AL pegged for being geared more toward offense. I gotta find a way to bet this over though.

 
In what could be one if the quietest gambling stories ever mark Newhouse in back to back final tables at the WSOP. Everyone freaked out when "action" Dan Harrington did it. The fields were smaller then and poker theory was really at its infancy.

 
NL A.McCutchen hits+runs+RBI -145* vs AL D.Jeter hits+runs+RBI 145/100

Cutch is hot right now. Dude single-handedly moosed the Reds twice the other night. Also this price at 5d is 15 cents better than the same prop at Bovada. Fading Jeter and the AL pitching staff. Cutch leading off tonight.

 
ChainsawU said:
NL A.McCutchen hits+runs+RBI -145* vs AL D.Jeter hits+runs+RBI 145/100

Cutch is hot right now. Dude single-handedly moosed the Reds twice the other night. Also this price at 5d is 15 cents better than the same prop at Bovada. Fading Jeter and the AL pitching staff. Cutch leading off tonight.
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What about NL SS over AL SS in TB? Alexei's been in the tank lately, and Tulo + Castro seems a lot more solid.

 
PSA: My buddy who has lost roughly the last 15 All-Star Games betting head-to-head with me chose the AL tonight.

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
ChainsawU said:
NL A.McCutchen hits+runs+RBI -145* vs AL D.Jeter hits+runs+RBI 145/100

Cutch is hot right now. Dude single-handedly moosed the Reds twice the other night. Also this price at 5d is 15 cents better than the same prop at Bovada. Fading Jeter and the AL pitching staff. Cutch leading off tonight.
Click to expand...
What about NL SS over AL SS in TB? Alexei's been in the tank lately, and Tulo + Castro seems a lot more solid.
Click to expand...
I just know that Cutch hit the game-tying home run in the top of the 9th inning to send it to extras on Saturday night like a savior. And then he hit what would be the game-winning home run in his next at-bat in the top of the 11th. And then, in the bottom of the 11th - as Cutch was visibly praying to God for his shaky reliever to bring home the win with a dude on base and two outs - he caught the line-drive to center field that ended the game, and then looked up and thanked God. And that was like three days ago. He is hot right now.

 
ChainsawU said:
Good Posting Judge said:
ChainsawU said:
NL A.McCutchen hits+runs+RBI -145* vs AL D.Jeter hits+runs+RBI 145/100

Cutch is hot right now. Dude single-handedly moosed the Reds twice the other night. Also this price at 5d is 15 cents better than the same prop at Bovada. Fading Jeter and the AL pitching staff. Cutch leading off tonight.
Click to expand...
What about NL SS over AL SS in TB? Alexei's been in the tank lately, and Tulo + Castro seems a lot more solid.
Click to expand...
I just know that Cutch hit the game-tying home run in the top of the 9th inning to send it to extras on Saturday night like a savior. And then he hit what would be the game-winning home run in his next at-bat in the top of the 11th. And then, in the bottom of the 11th - as Cutch was visibly praying to God for his shaky reliever to bring home the win with a dude on base and two outs - he caught the line-drive to center field that ended the game, and then looked up and thanked God. And that was like three days ago. He is hot right now.
Click to expand...
angle here thought could be Jeter might not get subbed for in his last AG game. more plate appearances

 
Tiger Fan said:
ChainsawU said:
Good Posting Judge said:
ChainsawU said:
NL A.McCutchen hits+runs+RBI -145* vs AL D.Jeter hits+runs+RBI 145/100

Cutch is hot right now. Dude single-handedly moosed the Reds twice the other night. Also this price at 5d is 15 cents better than the same prop at Bovada. Fading Jeter and the AL pitching staff. Cutch leading off tonight.
Click to expand...
What about NL SS over AL SS in TB? Alexei's been in the tank lately, and Tulo + Castro seems a lot more solid.
Click to expand...
I just know that Cutch hit the game-tying home run in the top of the 9th inning to send it to extras on Saturday night like a savior. And then he hit what would be the game-winning home run in his next at-bat in the top of the 11th. And then, in the bottom of the 11th - as Cutch was visibly praying to God for his shaky reliever to bring home the win with a dude on base and two outs - he caught the line-drive to center field that ended the game, and then looked up and thanked God. And that was like three days ago. He is hot right now.
Click to expand...
angle here thought could be Jeter might not get subbed for in his last AG game. more plate appearances
Click to expand...
cant believe he came out so early.

Was pissed cause Ripken was in the whole game and Travis Fryman never got in

 
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Dan Lambskin said:
I had never heard of Josh Harrison before today, yet somehow he's an Allstar? Neat sport
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That's on you, bro. Dude is a playmaker. Take a look at this (there might be an ad before the video): link

It was the first time I had ever seen a man successfully avoid a rundown. He didn't score that inning, but he would eventually win the game with a walk-off double in the eleventh. I had the Pirates +104 and +327 live. The line closed at -145.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Wainwright admitted to grooving pitches into Jeter.

What a #######
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He had a funny look on his face as he was applauding Jeter as he got to home plate. How are you going to join the crowd in standing ovation to the guy who, in two seconds, will be trying to steal from you. That's not how you compete. <_<

 
Good Posting Judge said:
ChainsawU said:
NL A.McCutchen hits+runs+RBI -145* vs AL D.Jeter hits+runs+RBI 145/100

Cutch is hot right now. Dude single-handedly moosed the Reds twice the other night. Also this price at 5d is 15 cents better than the same prop at Bovada. Fading Jeter and the AL pitching staff. Cutch leading off tonight.
Click to expand...
What about NL SS over AL SS in TB? Alexei's been in the tank lately, and Tulo + Castro seems a lot more solid.
Click to expand...
F'in Wainwright.

 
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