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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

Yeh, knew it was going to be a long night so had to pace. Have my big draft tomorrow which is about 12 hours of debauchary. So can't really over do it

 
How far can the Baylor Bears go this season? It starts with a matchup against SMU on Sunday at Floyd Casey Stadium (7:30pm, FOX Sports 1).

Line: Baylor -33, Total: 74.5

Line movements: Baylor opened as a comically large favorite at -31.5 and the spread has grown even larger. The total opened up at 73, 73.5 and it's been bet up to 74.5 and even 75.

Trends that matter: Baylor is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games. Dating back to 1989, SMU has never won or covered against Baylor.

SMU masochists: The Mustangs have suffered a lifetime of beatings at the hands of the Baylor Bears. With a couple of small exceptions, SMU has been dominated by Baylor, often losing to the Bears by double-digits and many times by more than 30 points.

Does the 49-3 Baylor win in 1989 have any tangible effect on this opening-day matchup on Sunday? Of course not. However, with each team having off-season time to prepare for each other, both schools know where the all-time series stands.

On offense, quarterback Garrett Gilbert is gone, and sophomore Neal Burcham looks to get the nod to replace him. Burcham did get to start a couple of games at the end of last season so he isn't coming in completely green, but the results were mixed.

Points-a-plenty: Art Briles is going to make sure his team scores points, a lot of points. With Heisman hopeful QB Bryce Petty returning (not to mention WR Antwan Goodley), Baylor is bound to have another fantastic season on the offensive side of the ball. Baylor scored 70 or more points four times last year. Exactly one year ago before this Sunday's game on August 31, the Bears defeated Wofford, 69-3.

Obviously, this is why the spread has climbed. Last season, six out of Baylor's first seven games had them listed as a 28.5 to 34.5-point favorite and they covered all of them. This squad has proven that it can come into a situation where they are the far superior team, illustrate it on the field, and then add on another 20 points or so for fun.

Baylor faces similarly weak competition to start off 2014 as they did in 2013. But after covering its first four games and eight of its first nine, Baylor finished the season on a 1-3 ATS run, indicating that its rating caught up with them. A season ago, the Bears went 4-0 to the OVER in their first four games. But sports books’ adjustments have been sharp, as they went a middling 4-4-1 O/U during their last nine games.

When the spreads start getting tighter later this season and the competition stiffens, the story could certainly be different on the Baylor Bears. Early in the year, there's no reason to think that Baylor has any other plans than to just light it up

 
do you guys still burn cds I still burn a lot of cds a 50-pack spindle of blank discs? it's only when you reach the end of a 50-pack spindle of blank discs and you are like where did they all go

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
Reverse line movements food for thought this morning:

UCLA @ Virginia: 75% on UCLA line going from -23 to -19 Vegas line, my local showing -18.5 right now

Nebraska: 73% on Nebraska line going from -23.5 to -21.5 Vegas line, my local showing -21 right now

Washington @ Hawaii: 83% on Hawaii line going from -19.5 to -17. This was at 91% on Washington two hours ago.

OSU @ Navy: 70% on OSU line going from -17 to -14, this one is obviously understandable.

Have a good season folks.
Click to expand...
2-2 for these four. been following a lot of you guys over the years, never posted since like a lot of others don't wanna chill the joint. I had good success playing these trends and since they are not actually my picks i'll post these every Saturday and track how it goes. The trend is there for NFL too, but have been noticing College games are much better. when you have a ranked team on the road against a non-ranked team with one of these trends, it's been money in the bank. UCLA and Washington were both that and both covered the other way as expected.

 
Tiger Fan said:
so

swirvenirvin said:
Good read here on NCAAF dogs who are good rushing teams in low scoring games

http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/good-rushing-teams-undervalued-low-scoring-college-football-games/
Click to expand...
:thumbup:

Summary: Bet the visiting team that avg >125 rushing yards/game when the game total is u47 @ spread is b/w 3-19
Click to expand...
Quick look at the top 10 rushing teams, 7 of them on the road next week

Air Force @ Wyoming

Indiana @ BG

N.Ill @ NW

Pitt @ BC

Navy @ Temple

Zona @ UTSA

 
Raider Nation said:
NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports new Bills QB Kyle Orton will make $5 million this season.As Chris Wesseling points out, that's as much as Josh McCown is making for the Bucs. The Bills have clearly lost faith in E.J. Manuel, and appear ready to turn to Orton at a moment's notice. Manuel will keep his job to begin the season as Orton gets up to speed on the playbook, but has no room for error
Click to expand...
:popcorn:
Click to expand...
that under 3200 looks even better if still available

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
Pigskin Fanatic said:
Reverse line movements food for thought this morning:

UCLA @ Virginia: 75% on UCLA line going from -23 to -19 Vegas line, my local showing -18.5 right now

Nebraska: 73% on Nebraska line going from -23.5 to -21.5 Vegas line, my local showing -21 right now

Washington @ Hawaii: 83% on Hawaii line going from -19.5 to -17. This was at 91% on Washington two hours ago.

OSU @ Navy: 70% on OSU line going from -17 to -14, this one is obviously understandable.

Have a good season folks.
Click to expand...
2-2 for these four. been following a lot of you guys over the years, never posted since like a lot of others don't wanna chill the joint. I had good success playing these trends and since they are not actually my picks i'll post these every Saturday and track how it goes. The trend is there for NFL too, but have been noticing College games are much better. when you have a ranked team on the road against a non-ranked team with one of these trends, it's been money in the bank. UCLA and Washington were both that and both covered the other way as expected.
Click to expand...
look forward to them

 
Tiger Fan said:
Tiger Fan said:
so

swirvenirvin said:
Good read here on NCAAF dogs who are good rushing teams in low scoring games

http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/good-rushing-teams-undervalued-low-scoring-college-football-games/
Click to expand...
:thumbup:

Summary: Bet the visiting team that avg >125 rushing yards/game when the game total is u47 @ spread is b/w 3-19
Click to expand...
Quick look at the top 10 rushing teams, 7 of them on the road next week

Air Force @ Wyoming

Indiana @ BG

N.Ill @ NW

Pitt @ BC

Navy @ Temple

Zona @ UTSA
Click to expand...
So there are 87 teams right now avg more than 125 yards a game

 
swirvenirvin said:
Tiger Fan said:
Tiger Fan said:
so

swirvenirvin said:
Good read here on NCAAF dogs who are good rushing teams in low scoring games

http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/good-rushing-teams-undervalued-low-scoring-college-football-games/
Click to expand...
:thumbup:

Summary: Bet the visiting team that avg >125 rushing yards/game when the game total is u47 @ spread is b/w 3-19
Click to expand...
Quick look at the top 10 rushing teams, 7 of them on the road next week

Air Force @ Wyoming

Indiana @ BG

N.Ill @ NW

Pitt @ BC

Navy @ Temple

Zona @ UTSA
Click to expand...
So there are 87 teams right now avg more than 125 yards a game
Click to expand...
yeah, might just have to cut it off at the top tier for week 1

 
Raider Nation said:
How far can the Baylor Bears go this season? It starts with a matchup against SMU on Sunday at Floyd Casey Stadium (7:30pm, FOX Sports 1).

Line: Baylor -33, Total: 74.5

Line movements: Baylor opened as a comically large favorite at -31.5 and the spread has grown even larger. The total opened up at 73, 73.5 and it's been bet up to 74.5 and even 75.

Trends that matter: Baylor is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games. Dating back to 1989, SMU has never won or covered against Baylor.

SMU masochists: The Mustangs have suffered a lifetime of beatings at the hands of the Baylor Bears. With a couple of small exceptions, SMU has been dominated by Baylor, often losing to the Bears by double-digits and many times by more than 30 points.

Does the 49-3 Baylor win in 1989 have any tangible effect on this opening-day matchup on Sunday? Of course not. However, with each team having off-season time to prepare for each other, both schools know where the all-time series stands.

On offense, quarterback Garrett Gilbert is gone, and sophomore Neal Burcham looks to get the nod to replace him. Burcham did get to start a couple of games at the end of last season so he isn't coming in completely green, but the results were mixed.

Points-a-plenty: Art Briles is going to make sure his team scores points, a lot of points. With Heisman hopeful QB Bryce Petty returning (not to mention WR Antwan Goodley), Baylor is bound to have another fantastic season on the offensive side of the ball. Baylor scored 70 or more points four times last year. Exactly one year ago before this Sunday's game on August 31, the Bears defeated Wofford, 69-3.

Obviously, this is why the spread has climbed. Last season, six out of Baylor's first seven games had them listed as a 28.5 to 34.5-point favorite and they covered all of them. This squad has proven that it can come into a situation where they are the far superior team, illustrate it on the field, and then add on another 20 points or so for fun.

Baylor faces similarly weak competition to start off 2014 as they did in 2013. But after covering its first four games and eight of its first nine, Baylor finished the season on a 1-3 ATS run, indicating that its rating caught up with them. A season ago, the Bears went 4-0 to the OVER in their first four games. But sports books’ adjustments have been sharp, as they went a middling 4-4-1 O/U during their last nine games.

When the spreads start getting tighter later this season and the competition stiffens, the story could certainly be different on the Baylor Bears. Early in the year, there's no reason to think that Baylor has any other plans than to just light it up
Click to expand...
While this is very solid matchup analysis, I feel that it neglects to analyze the effect of how CRAIG JAMES KILLED 5 HOOKERS WHILE AT SMU when pricing the flux in the point spread and the total.

 
so is sportsbook out of the real prop stuff now? They didnt post any player props for the season, and their gb sea game they have the bull#### ones

 
Truck, what say you? Man, i've been playing at 5d for a long time now under the reduced juice plan and just now for the 1st time realized that I need to click into the reduced juice section to get that benefit. It's an easy hundo.

 
So much vodka on a Labor Day Sunday night:

Pending 13 Team Parlay Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26012 ATL regular season wins under 9½ -395* vs ATL regular season wins over 9½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26032 BUF regular season wins under 7½ -227* vs BUF regular season wins over 7½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26059 CHI regular season wins over 7½ -360* vs CHI regular season wins under 7½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26072 CLE regular season wins under 7½ -270* vs CLE regular season wins over 7½ Pending 9/7/14 8:30pm Props Football 26099 DEN regular season wins over 10½ -237* vs DEN regular season wins under 10½ Pending 9/4/14 8:30pm Props Football 26119 GB regular season wins over 9½ -220* vs GB regular season wins under 9½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26149 JAX regular season wins over 3½ -610* vs JAX regular season wins under 3½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26169 MIA regular season wins over 6½ -273* vs MIA regular season wins under 6½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26189 NE regular season wins over 9½ -475* vs NE regular season wins under 9½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26199 NOR regular season wins over 8½ -600* vs NOR regular season wins under 8½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26239 PHI regular season wins over 8½ -195* vs PHI regular season wins under 8½ Pending 9/4/14 8:30pm Props Football 26279 SEA regular season wins over 10½ -165* vs SEA regular season wins under 10½ Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 26312 WAS regular season wins under 8½ -267* vs WAS regular season wins over 8½ @ 48-1 odds.

 
Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25301 New England Patriots win AFC East -325* vs Field wins AFC East

Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25321 Indianapolis Colts win AFC South -165* vs Field wins AFC South

Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25331 Denver Broncos win AFC West -360* vs Field wins AFC West

Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25344 Field wins NFC East -355* vs New York Giants win NFC East

Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25418 Cleveland Browns won't make playoffs -600* vs Cleveland Browns make playoffs Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25458 Minnesota Vikings won't make playoffs -850* vs Minnesota Vikings make playoffs Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25468 Tampa Bay Buccaneers won't make playoffs -450* vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers make playoffs Pending 9/7/14 1:00pm Props Football 25471 Seattle Seahawks make playoffs -360* vs Seattle Seahawks won't make playoffs

100 to win 780

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Week 1, getting this ish started!

2 team 6-pointer chalk teaser for 1U:

Bears -0.5

Broncos -1.5

Also playing SF/Dal O49 for a couple units.

Action across 1/4/SNF :excited:

 
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