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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

They are 8 games up In the loss column for a playoff spot with 8 games to go. A win today and they are in. Hope they don't open the flood gates today in the name of warping it up.

 
hagmania said:
got_nugs said:
I'm taking a flier on Julio over 125 yds and 150 yds. I'll be watching every second cause i'm a sucker.
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Tailed you imo. :hifive:

(also thanks to Tiger Fan for pointing it out in the first place)
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We did it!

Funny thing is I tried everywhere to get Douglas yardage props, only thing I found was his TD/ATL wins +500 prop. I'd rather be lucky....

 
I have a whole mess of high stakes national contest entries going this year, got tied up submitting lineups last week, late to the NFL posting party last week. Congrats and condolences all around, especially to anyone who hit on Cardinals, Texans, Eagles/Colts over, Eagles ML, and missed on the Lions.

This is interesting, from Dr. Bob's blog:

Play UNDER a total of greater than 42 points if the home team won their home opener the previous week and allowed less than 30 points in that win. This trend works for weeks 2, 3 and 4.

50-15 UNDER

****************

This is now 51-15, because the Chiefs/Broncos hit comfortably last week, totaling 41 points against an O/U of 51

So, by this system, there are 4 Teams to keep an eye on, approaching the weekend:

Buffalo won their home opener last week, Dolphins only scored 10, O/U is currently 45.5, well over the 42 point cutoff...

Cincinnati won their home opener last week, Falcons only scored 10, O/U is currently 42.5, just over the 42 point cutoff, this one might drop out of the zone...

Cleveland won their home opener last week, Saints only scored 24, O/U is currently 41, just under the 42 point cutoff, probably not likely it's going to go up 1-1.5...

Carolina won their home opener last week, Lions only scored 7, O/U is currently 42, right on the 42 point cutoff, I think this one could move either way

Considering the Bills total is 3.5 over the cutoff, and they are playing the Chargers at 10 AM San Diego time (over-rated, I know, I completely disregarded that betting Arizona vs the Giants last week), and Chargers are down Ryan Mathews (again, not sure this is a big enough deal, as Donald Brown/Woodhead ought to be able to approximate Mathews/Woodhead's projected #'s), I'm going to consider using that total as the foundation leg of some teasers this week.

Took a look at what's falling within the Wong Window right now, and the only one that jumps out at me as an immediate play is Packers +2.5, so I'll take a speculative shot:

Packers +8.5 / Chargers-Bills U51.5, 1.5u

I'm also in on the Colts -6.5, 3u

Still looking...

 
NIU Kicker said:
Raider Nation said:
If the New Orleans team total is 31 or less this week, put your first-born on the over. Judging by the spread and game total, we should be right in the neighborhood. The Saints are going for 40+ IMO.
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Looking like it will open around 34.5?
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Ehhhhh.... obviously, that number is a lot less appealing.

The books suck the way they shade these TT overs. With a line like -10 and 50, that implies a final score of 30-20.

Whatever, saves me from trying to find a way to spread several grand around on this. Most books have low TT limits.

 
Raider Nation said:
NIU Kicker said:
Raider Nation said:
If the New Orleans team total is 31 or less this week, put your first-born on the over. Judging by the spread and game total, we should be right in the neighborhood. The Saints are going for 40+ IMO.
Click to expand...
Looking like it will open around 34.5?
Click to expand...
Ehhhhh.... obviously, that number is a lot less appealing.

The books suck the way they shade these TT overs. With a line like -10 and 50, that implies a final score of 30-20.

Whatever, saves me from trying to find a way to spread several grand around on this. Most books have low TT limits.
Click to expand...
No idea where NIU got 34.5?

Number is 29 at 5dimes.

 
MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
NIU Kicker said:
Raider Nation said:
If the New Orleans team total is 31 or less this week, put your first-born on the over. Judging by the spread and game total, we should be right in the neighborhood. The Saints are going for 40+ IMO.
Click to expand...
Looking like it will open around 34.5?
Click to expand...
Ehhhhh.... obviously, that number is a lot less appealing.

The books suck the way they shade these TT overs. With a line like -10 and 50, that implies a final score of 30-20.

Whatever, saves me from trying to find a way to spread several grand around on this. Most books have low TT limits.
Click to expand...
No idea where NIU got 34.5? Number is 29 at 5dimes.
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My own bad memory. I thought the total was 55,not 50.

 
John Bender said:
Why is this USF/Uconn line so fishy?

Uconn SUCKS

-2.5 says "Here fishy, fishy fishy....we gave you the hook. Come and bite on it now"
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I have the same feeling. The books are just begging for USF money here.

I already punched USF for a unit but I wouldn't be the least bit suprised with a UCONN win.

 
MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
NIU Kicker said:
Raider Nation said:
If the New Orleans team total is 31 or less this week, put your first-born on the over. Judging by the spread and game total, we should be right in the neighborhood. The Saints are going for 40+ IMO.
Click to expand...
Looking like it will open around 34.5?
Click to expand...
Ehhhhh.... obviously, that number is a lot less appealing.

The books suck the way they shade these TT overs. With a line like -10 and 50, that implies a final score of 30-20.

Whatever, saves me from trying to find a way to spread several grand around on this. Most books have low TT limits.
Click to expand...
No idea where NIU got 34.5? Number is 29 at 5dimes.
Click to expand...
5 dimes indeed! :)

Think Tony will let me lay that much on it?

 
Dan Lambskin said:
NIU Kicker said:
lumpy19 said:
Hey Dee Gordon, quick favor, don't steal anymore bases

thanks!
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And while we are at it, no more triples.Also - absolutely NO reason for Kershaw to toss a complete game today. Save him for the playoffs boys.
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I don't think we should have to worry about this since they're playing the cubs but if he goes 8 and the cubs somehow win (and don't bat in 9th) that counts as a CG
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Looks like you won't have to sweat this one out today!

 
ChainsawU said:
Since 2012 the Braves are 19-6 SU at home after a day off: 11-5 SU coming home from the road and 8-1 SU (7-0 SU since 2013) after a day off between two home games. The next time they have a day off between two home games will be Sep 19 at home versus the Mets. The line will be around -160, but it will be Friday. You will have the opportunity to build a two-team, cross-sport parlay with a big NCAA favorite. So mark your calendar.
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The 49ers fell into an 0-17 or some such trend (ATS) of teams playing B2B prime-time games last week (which I think excluded Thursday Night Football). And now the Bears fall into that same trend this week.

 
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ScoobySnack said:
Dan Lambskin said:
NIU Kicker said:
lumpy19 said:
Hey Dee Gordon, quick favor, don't steal anymore bases

thanks!
Click to expand...
And while we are at it, no more triples.Also - absolutely NO reason for Kershaw to toss a complete game today. Save him for the playoffs boys.
Click to expand...
I don't think we should have to worry about this since they're playing the cubs but if he goes 8 and the cubs somehow win (and don't bat in 9th) that counts as a CG
Click to expand...
Looks like you won't have to sweat this one out today!
Click to expand...
We dodged the bullet on this big time. He's got one more start and he will face SF and the division could be on the line. I wouldn't think the will keep him out for 100+, but if he has a great start we could be in trouble.

Considering he had his 6th CG a month ago and has played some real base teams and hasn't got to 7 I consider ourselves lucky.

 
Locking in the Iowa system now that it is +7 at some books and either 47 or 46.5 at all.

ETA

Not official plays I dont think but am busy tomorrow with the wedding so making the close ones for smaller

Utah St +2.5 +48 and Mississppi St +9.5 +47.5

 
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The salmon fillet I brought home weighed 2.8 lbs before I baked it. And I ate all of it. The definition of a glutton still remains the dude who eats all the fried chicken he can eat but wakes up in the middle of the night with a breast in each hand wanting another piece. Do you know why they call it a piece - because you can never get the whole thing. Going on two weeks of gym and school without drinking. I want to bet Connecticut tonight +1.5 -105 on my last sober night before my buddy comes into town and we go prowlin'. I grew up with the dude but don't see him very often. He is crazier than I am. He gets here at noon tomorrow and doesn't leave until Monday morning. Just to be safe I completed all my assignments that are due before next Thursday. Cheers dudes.

 
Also you can get a 50-pack of assorted slap-brcelets on Amazon for eleven dollars, so if you see any random women wearing slap bracelets either downtown or in random gentlemens' clubs then you know I am somewhere close by handing them out. Thank you.

 
Chain gets to go out and bang whores by the bucketful. I get to stay home and watch the best of the AAC and babysit my daughter while the better half goes out to see Margaret Cho.

Someone shoot me.

 
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oh and a WTF $20 "system" parlay

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies09/19/14
07:10PM909Over 10½ -105
J Lyles ® - C Anderson ® Listed
San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills - Week 309/21/14
12:00PM452Buffalo Bills -2½ -115
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh U - ESPNU09/20/14
11:00AM313Iowa +7 -110
 
Ref

Do you manage your own stocks via an online company?

I know I've picked your brain before - was hoping to ask you 1 or 2 more brief questions if you're free tonight? Nothing major, I don't want to be a nudge.

 
Market didn't move a cent for Colorado. All the games moved .5 runs for the LA series, had moved until AZ sat most their lineup yesterday (still went over). I'm not playing it, gl to you all

 
Panda Express is the Olive Garden of Chinese food, but GD is their Kung Po chicken good! :wub: I got three huge containers of it (family size).... just gonna keep it warm in the crock all weekend.

Goo, I see you lurking. Check your PM please.

 
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