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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
modogg
Footballguy
Ok. Last week I went against the thread liking falcons and I tried it here too. I think I won't try that again
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Todd Fuhrman @ToddFuhrman 8m8 minutes ago
That AJ Green TD means this is the 10th straight #NFL primetime game to go over the total. Last game that didn't? Ravens vs Steelers Week 2
That AJ Green TD means this is the 10th straight #NFL primetime game to go over the total. Last game that didn't? Ravens vs Steelers Week 2
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
In 14 games as a Bill, E.J. Manuel had zero 300-yard games. In one game as a Bill, Kyle Orton has one 300-yard game.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
ESPN Insider's group of betting experts helps analyze Monday's game.
After last week's disastrous 45-14 loss to the New York Giants, Washington is back on national television. The opponent only gets tougher in the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
The camp supporting the idea that Kirk Cousins is actually better than Robert Griffin III took a big hit last week, as Cousins suffered through a dreadful game, throwing four interceptions and telegraphing passes all game. Consider this: After winning his first game as a starter as a rookie in 2012, Cousins has lost his last five.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
Seattle is the best team in the NFL, and will have to continue to navigate through a brutal schedule. After playing Green Bay, San Diego and Denver, teams that are a combined 6-2 in games against opponents other than Seattle, the Seahawks now make the first of their three cross-country trips this season (they also have road games against Carolina and Philadelphia).
(Also intriguing this week: ESPN's Jon Gruden will be broadcasting a game coached by his brother Jay. The always-enthusiastic Jon just might have some extra-special insight.)
According to ESPN PickCenter, the public is backing Seattle at a 72 percent rate. Considering the impression Washington left in its last game, this is hardly a surprise.
Let's get some analysis from some of the finest minds Las Vegas has to offer.
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
Spread: Seattle -7
Total: Opened and currently at 45.5
Jay Kornegay says: We posted Seattle at minus-6.5 over the Redskins last Sunday night and the Seahawks were up to minus-7.5 after two hours of wagering. In the early part of the week, we received some Washington money and the line dropped to minus-6.5 by Thursday. Later that day, more Seahawks support came in and we moved back to minus-7, where it currently stands. Obviously we have a few differing opinions on this one, and the books certainly don't want to see a seven-point victory by Seattle. I think there will be support on the Redskins, as this is a good spot for a maximum effort after that debacle against New York last week.
Picks
Erin Rynning says: The Redskins find themselves in a similar situation as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Redskins were thoroughly embarrassed last week by the Giants, much like the Buccaneers were dominated by the Atlanta Falcons the previous week. Well, the Buccaneers bounced back last weekend with an upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers as a seven-point underdog. Expect Kirk Cousins to bounce back from his five-turnover performance against the Giants; after all, he did throw for 427 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles the previous week. The key for the Redskins will be to rely on their power run game and Alfred Morris as the best method to beat the Seahawks' defense. The Seahawks are allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, but it's worth noting the teams they've faced have struggled to run the football against other teams as well.
ATS pick: Take the value and the Redskins
MadduxSports says: The public is clearly all over Seattle, but before you think the Seahawks are free money, just stop and think about what league we're talking about here. Teams can look like Tampa Bay did against Atlanta one week and then go out and beat Pittsburgh the next week. Seattle does qualify as good coming off a bye-week situation that is 54-17 ATS, but Washington qualifies in a number of good bounce-back situations based off last week's 45-14 blowout loss. My numbers make this game Seattle minus-7, so the line looks fair to me. If you find plus-7.5 at -110, betting on Washington is the way I'd go.
ATS pick: Redskins if you can get 7.5 (-110) or more.
Wunderdog says: The Seahawks remain the best team in the NFL, and were they at home, I'd have a tough time taking an over in a game involving their defense. But this game is on the road, where the defense takes a marked step back. In the Seahawks' lone road game this season, San Diego torched their defense for 30 points. The Redskins don't have that kind of offense, but they will score here. Let's not forget they put up 41 and 34 already in games this season. The Redskins' defense, however, has allowed 37 and 45 in its past two games, andRussell Wilson & Co. will have no problem getting into the end zone. For some reason, this Seahawks offense continues to be underrated. They won a Super Bowl last season and have averaged 28 points per game this year. Take this one to go over the total.
ATS pick: Over
Dave Tuley says: I love home underdogs, but not even I, the dog-or-pass bettor, can make a case for Washington here. Its best performance was its spread-covering loss against Philadelphia.
ATS pick: Pass (pool play: Seahawks)
After last week's disastrous 45-14 loss to the New York Giants, Washington is back on national television. The opponent only gets tougher in the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
The camp supporting the idea that Kirk Cousins is actually better than Robert Griffin III took a big hit last week, as Cousins suffered through a dreadful game, throwing four interceptions and telegraphing passes all game. Consider this: After winning his first game as a starter as a rookie in 2012, Cousins has lost his last five.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
Seattle is the best team in the NFL, and will have to continue to navigate through a brutal schedule. After playing Green Bay, San Diego and Denver, teams that are a combined 6-2 in games against opponents other than Seattle, the Seahawks now make the first of their three cross-country trips this season (they also have road games against Carolina and Philadelphia).
(Also intriguing this week: ESPN's Jon Gruden will be broadcasting a game coached by his brother Jay. The always-enthusiastic Jon just might have some extra-special insight.)
According to ESPN PickCenter, the public is backing Seattle at a 72 percent rate. Considering the impression Washington left in its last game, this is hardly a surprise.
Let's get some analysis from some of the finest minds Las Vegas has to offer.
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
Spread: Seattle -7
Total: Opened and currently at 45.5
Jay Kornegay says: We posted Seattle at minus-6.5 over the Redskins last Sunday night and the Seahawks were up to minus-7.5 after two hours of wagering. In the early part of the week, we received some Washington money and the line dropped to minus-6.5 by Thursday. Later that day, more Seahawks support came in and we moved back to minus-7, where it currently stands. Obviously we have a few differing opinions on this one, and the books certainly don't want to see a seven-point victory by Seattle. I think there will be support on the Redskins, as this is a good spot for a maximum effort after that debacle against New York last week.
Picks
Erin Rynning says: The Redskins find themselves in a similar situation as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Redskins were thoroughly embarrassed last week by the Giants, much like the Buccaneers were dominated by the Atlanta Falcons the previous week. Well, the Buccaneers bounced back last weekend with an upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers as a seven-point underdog. Expect Kirk Cousins to bounce back from his five-turnover performance against the Giants; after all, he did throw for 427 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles the previous week. The key for the Redskins will be to rely on their power run game and Alfred Morris as the best method to beat the Seahawks' defense. The Seahawks are allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, but it's worth noting the teams they've faced have struggled to run the football against other teams as well.
ATS pick: Take the value and the Redskins
MadduxSports says: The public is clearly all over Seattle, but before you think the Seahawks are free money, just stop and think about what league we're talking about here. Teams can look like Tampa Bay did against Atlanta one week and then go out and beat Pittsburgh the next week. Seattle does qualify as good coming off a bye-week situation that is 54-17 ATS, but Washington qualifies in a number of good bounce-back situations based off last week's 45-14 blowout loss. My numbers make this game Seattle minus-7, so the line looks fair to me. If you find plus-7.5 at -110, betting on Washington is the way I'd go.
ATS pick: Redskins if you can get 7.5 (-110) or more.
Wunderdog says: The Seahawks remain the best team in the NFL, and were they at home, I'd have a tough time taking an over in a game involving their defense. But this game is on the road, where the defense takes a marked step back. In the Seahawks' lone road game this season, San Diego torched their defense for 30 points. The Redskins don't have that kind of offense, but they will score here. Let's not forget they put up 41 and 34 already in games this season. The Redskins' defense, however, has allowed 37 and 45 in its past two games, andRussell Wilson & Co. will have no problem getting into the end zone. For some reason, this Seahawks offense continues to be underrated. They won a Super Bowl last season and have averaged 28 points per game this year. Take this one to go over the total.
ATS pick: Over
Dave Tuley says: I love home underdogs, but not even I, the dog-or-pass bettor, can make a case for Washington here. Its best performance was its spread-covering loss against Philadelphia.
ATS pick: Pass (pool play: Seahawks)
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
My next billion-dollar wager is going on Dee Ford UNDER whatever his tackle number is. Check out this sweet backpedal (#55).
WTF?
WTF?
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Deadspin doesn't have the video to this one anymore it looks like, but this is amazing:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1846416-andrea-bargnani-plays-embarrassing-defense-against-the-spurs
Note that Manu's also wide-open in the corner.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
hagmania
Footballguy
we run this
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
So saw has seattle in blowout tonight?
Wonder if I should position the props this way!
Wonder if I should position the props this way!
The Ref
Footballguy
So all of these hit (even thought Cle shifted over to a dog), and guess who decided to roll them all into a parlay......and added the Saitns -10?
Jalapanose
Footballguy
I am sure there were some garbage trends favoring Nola as well, just like for every other NFL team on any given day
I wouldn't call it garbage, but IIRC they Saints had covered their last 9 in a row at home. Moral of the story is I should have played them one off and not parlayed
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Having a hard time seeing anything that stands out for tonight.
Just one play on play on the fact the redskins are not very atheltic at all, but dont want to double up on the yards too in case he pulls a 1 target game again.
Harvin over 5 +110
Will prob play these also for super small for action since its fun to be a degenerate...
Morris under 66.4
Jackson under 59.5
Lynch under 15.5 receiving
Harvin over 57.5
Just one play on play on the fact the redskins are not very atheltic at all, but dont want to double up on the yards too in case he pulls a 1 target game again.
Harvin over 5 +110
Will prob play these also for super small for action since its fun to be a degenerate...
Morris under 66.4
Jackson under 59.5
Lynch under 15.5 receiving
Harvin over 57.5
Just curious, why the over 5 instead of the over 57.5. I would think that if he hits 5 catches, the 57.5 would be hit as well....and he has the chance to get the 57.5 on fewer than 5 catches. Not doubting, just wondering aobut thought process
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
He's averaging about 7 yards per catch. Seattle tries to get him the ball in space, alot of plays near the line of scrimmage, little screens, high completion percentage passes, but plays where he might need some blocking or to break a tackle to gain yardage. At his current yards per catch, he'd need 8-9 catches to go over 57'. I'm passing on Harvin but if you're gonna play receptions or yards, data says you play receptions.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Meh, wouldn't look at it too hard.
Oliver is what happened.
Jets run D has been pretty good. Oliver just tore them up and got SD out in front a good deal couple with the bigger deal that Jet's couldn't do anything and Rivers didn't need to throw too much
hagmania
Footballguy
Hindsight is a good teacher in some regards though.
Probably should have been laying off the bet, not picking a side one way or the other because NYJ's performance was a wildcard that directly affected how many times Rivers threw the ball. He had a 73% completion rate weeks 2-4, which held to a T with his 20/28 performance yesterday.
edit: I understand your point though - Rivers threw it 39 times vs the Jags. Just learning and calibrating.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
buffalo game was in toronto....kind of an away game for both teams, bills got SMOKED that day
comfortably numb
Footballguy
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
I like that three of the four were in the Eastern time zone. And that the margin of victory in those four games was 33,12,23,23, respectively.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Jalapanose
Footballguy
Moral of the story is that you will never win playing garbage team trends. Guess what, for every trend you show for/against a team, I can produce likewise for their opponent.
You're trying to use a mousetrap to kill something that people with atomic bombs can't kill.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
its hard sometimes. You can according to the stats and still lose. Offesnes were calling a pass play 67% of the time vs the Jets coming into that game, but when it turns into a blowout that is going to change. Look at the Jags they blow and get blown out but QB's were still torching them up until last week. Wheaton killed me in draftkings and on the prop bet.
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
Can you show us anything you have contributed to the thread besides personal opinion before calling other dudes' info "garbage?" What the hell, dude. TF was just telling you a story about his day yesterday.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Going to wait one more week but may be on to something with PFF WR/CB matchup where we can have automatic plays on receiving under's for WR's. Looks like if a WR is going against a guy who is 39 or lower (lower is good) there is a 69% chance the WR will be under 45 yards.
Exceptions which are listed below have been the stud WR's and of course all my losses (bolded) on unders from wk 4 and 5. Sample size so far is 35 players
Hilton, Benjamin, James Jones, R. White, A. Hurns week 4
Watkins, Julio and Em Sanders, Jordy, Ter Williams, week 5
Exceptions which are listed below have been the stud WR's and of course all my losses (bolded) on unders from wk 4 and 5. Sample size so far is 35 players
Hilton, Benjamin, James Jones, R. White, A. Hurns week 4
Watkins, Julio and Em Sanders, Jordy, Ter Williams, week 5
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hagmania
Footballguy
In my very brief history of trend diving I try to think like an average Joe and then aim to prove/disprove it. Playing trends against Vegas/public instead of trends against teams. I don't find very much lol, though I think I'll hold onto that Week 3 nugget til next year.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I post my leans, but generally don't back them up with stats unless I have them. Guys in here doing the lord's work pouring over stats and trends that are meaningful and have won over time, don't dismiss their hard work in here please.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Here's a fun stat: Carroll 10-1 on MNF. Redskins 1-11 last dozen
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
If Calvin sits next week take Stafford under. Historically his numbers are extremely piss poor without him as we have seen the past two weeks, and in 2013
lumpy19
Footballguy
Trends are a huge waste of time. They may be interesting to read but they're useless for betting purposes IMO.
I post my leans, but generally don't back them up with stats unless I have them. Guys in here doing the lord's work pouring over stats and trends that are meaningful and have won over time, don't dismiss their hard work in here please.
VA703
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
2013
5 at GB L 9-22 25 40 62.5 262 1 0 17 at MIN L 13-14 22 33 66.7 217 1 0 2014
4 at NYJ W 24-17 24 34 70.6 293 2 0 5 BUF L 14-17 18 31 58.1 221 1 1
VA703
Footballguy
linemakers:
Playing against Washington at home on Monday Night Football has long been a profitable angle. Since 1997, Washington is just 2-12 straight-up and against the spread on Mondays at FedEx Field. From Norv Turner to Steve Spurrier to Joe Gibbs to Jim Zorn to Mike Shanahan, Monday-night woes have a constant for Washington.
But rarely has Washington (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) been as big a home underdog as it is against Seattle, which is favored by about a touchdown. This is only 14th time Washington has been a home underdog of 7-plus points since 1978. And it’s a role the franchise has played well. Washington is 8-5 against the spread getting a touchdown or more at home, though just 3-10 straight-up.
The 2-1 Seahawks, for their part, are 1-1 against the number and 2-0 straight-up as road favorites of 7-plus points in Pete Carroll’s time as head coach, winning and covering at the Giants (-9) and winning but failing to cover at the Rams (-14) last season.
And since we’re on a real history kick, here’s another Seattle stat: since 1978, road favorites of 7-plus points are 18-19 against the spread in Monday-night games.
How this all relates to a game played on the first Monday night in October in 2014? As always, that’s for the handicappers to decide.
The Line: Seahawks -7 (-120), Total: 45.5
Line movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -6.5, but the spread was bet up to -7.5 the following day. The line has since been bouncing between 7 and 7.5 around Las Vegas, and the total is between 45.5 and 46.
The Linemakers' lean: The Redskins have lost 11 of their last 12 games, but we're expecting more out of this team. Ranked No. 12 in the Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings, Washington has the talent to improve under Jay Gruden. Our numbers give Seattle a 5.5-point edge on a neutral field, so this looks like way too big a number for the Seahawks to be laying on the road. We'll also look for these teams to continue trending OVER (they are 5-2 O/U combined this season). Washington +7.5, OVER 45.5 are the plays
Playing against Washington at home on Monday Night Football has long been a profitable angle. Since 1997, Washington is just 2-12 straight-up and against the spread on Mondays at FedEx Field. From Norv Turner to Steve Spurrier to Joe Gibbs to Jim Zorn to Mike Shanahan, Monday-night woes have a constant for Washington.
But rarely has Washington (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) been as big a home underdog as it is against Seattle, which is favored by about a touchdown. This is only 14th time Washington has been a home underdog of 7-plus points since 1978. And it’s a role the franchise has played well. Washington is 8-5 against the spread getting a touchdown or more at home, though just 3-10 straight-up.
The 2-1 Seahawks, for their part, are 1-1 against the number and 2-0 straight-up as road favorites of 7-plus points in Pete Carroll’s time as head coach, winning and covering at the Giants (-9) and winning but failing to cover at the Rams (-14) last season.
And since we’re on a real history kick, here’s another Seattle stat: since 1978, road favorites of 7-plus points are 18-19 against the spread in Monday-night games.
How this all relates to a game played on the first Monday night in October in 2014? As always, that’s for the handicappers to decide.
The Line: Seahawks -7 (-120), Total: 45.5
Line movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Seattle -6.5, but the spread was bet up to -7.5 the following day. The line has since been bouncing between 7 and 7.5 around Las Vegas, and the total is between 45.5 and 46.
The Linemakers' lean: The Redskins have lost 11 of their last 12 games, but we're expecting more out of this team. Ranked No. 12 in the Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings, Washington has the talent to improve under Jay Gruden. Our numbers give Seattle a 5.5-point edge on a neutral field, so this looks like way too big a number for the Seahawks to be laying on the road. We'll also look for these teams to continue trending OVER (they are 5-2 O/U combined this season). Washington +7.5, OVER 45.5 are the plays
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Russell Wilson to score 1st TD +1500
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Also over 45.5
