Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yes, @ Seattle will help increase their value even though that's a game every NFL team might lose.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
would make sense to wait on the seattle loss.. however obvioulsy if they win......
Jalapanose
Footballguy
So vegas paid a ref to....make sure they lost more money since "more people bet on seattle"? Yeah, that makes loads of sense, wtf are you even talking about?!?ghostguy123 said:
I had access to SportsInsights data a few years ago (before BetLabs) and I know that was true for MLB dogs early.
I think Vegas sets early lines on what they see as preconceived notions and instead there will be lots of value in taking dogs because the majority of action is expected to come on the favorites. People see the names, but dont take into account the numerous offseason moves. Bender touched on it this year in the NFL - first few weeks fade what you think you know.
I use a similar strategy fading the largely public plays in the NBA the first week of the season.
lumpy19
Footballguy
most are small plays though.
Was u93.5 -115
Ott u86.5 -115
Nash u89.5 -115(opposite on this one based on number only, most sites in 81-84 area so I have to take under at 89.5)
Fla u80.5 -115
Det u97.5 -115
Ari u87.5 -115
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Yeah, right. We all prefer large sample sizes. So why even say that in your article? Because it's disreputable. This system is averaging about 38 plays per season (about 3% of games fall within these criteria). I don't like it. As Shakespeare would say, "the lady doth protest too much." Because their system is overfitted with very specific criteria that does not make logical sense. And the sample size is small, despite what they say.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Actually, their criteria fit 982 games over the last 9 seasons, so about 109 per year (incl. the lockout year).
They're layering several somewhat profitable angles to come together with a system which has produced a profit. I'm not saying that the books might adjust and squelch it.
Which angles that they've layered on do you take issue with? IMO this doesn't look like overfitting to me.
They're layering several somewhat profitable angles to come together with a system which has produced a profit. I'm not saying that the books might adjust and squelch it.
Which angles that they've layered on do you take issue with? IMO this doesn't look like overfitting to me.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
while you 2 figure that out I will be losing my $ on the o5.5 on BOS/PHI
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I got about 300 games that fit the criteria but my db only goes back to 2006. I don't like it because of how specific it is. I fiddled with it for a while and when I tried changing the criteria here and there I was left with returns of -20% or more a lot of the time. I couldn't "see" it or get a real feel for it and it didn't make sense to me. I don't know, man. And then trying to play all the games throughout the season - just finding them seems difficult, let alone playing all of them to make the system work. Add in the fact that the teams in that system are winning SU about 43% of the time and you can see the importance of having to get money down on all the games.
eta: my ROI with their system was +7.9% so I feel like I was seeing the same thing (which is why I chimed in).
eta: my ROI with their system was +7.9% so I feel like I was seeing the same thing (which is why I chimed in).
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
I think the days of rest angle is one that needs to be explored. The thing with today is that since it's opening day everyones' rest is set to "undefined" so I can't really dig into it. In the future though. Also, I didn't mean to comment against you bro. I didn't mean to come across like that, it was more of what I would say to the face of the author who wrote the article (which he would then probably explain to me that I was overreacting). Trends just too sensitive an issue for me to overcome right now.
I use days of rest a lot in my SOG/save prop wagering, but I do think it gets factored into the lines.
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
I never liked to bet SOG untill all teams have 20 games in.
but there are some teams that probably won't change much like the Kings, Devils, etc. as they play the same style, under the same coach, with the same players.
in general, I agree though.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
No worries, I didn't take it as an insult. If someone can critique something like that and either be able to validate or disprove it, it's going to make/save us all money. I agree on the days of rest thing, I'd want to parse that out in a bunch of different ways and see what (if any) trends emerge. Might do the BetLabs trial this weekend.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
I feel the opposite. Some of my strongest bets in all sports come in the very beginning of the season, when the oddsmakers are clueless, and still using averages from last season or whatever the hell they do. I suppose it depends on what you use to come up with plays (ie current season data), but early season is our best opportunity to be ahead of the line setters. It's also a shame to lose out on 1/4 of the season waiting for data.
got_nugs
Footballguy
Can the Wild win it all? I want to bet them based on how they played in the playoffs last year.
-i've been following pucks lightly for 2 years b/c of this thread and have no other insight or knowledge other than watching and reading you'ts. Maybe Minny sucks this year, I honestly do not know.
-i've been following pucks lightly for 2 years b/c of this thread and have no other insight or knowledge other than watching and reading you'ts. Maybe Minny sucks this year, I honestly do not know.
biggest question is goaltending, but they are pretty stacked up front. the West is also really deep but I think they have a chance.
probably only a small number of teams that are legit contenders and I think they are in that group (CHI, LAK, BOS, PIT, STL, MIN, ANA, NYR with SJ and TB maybe)
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
This is interesting odds here. So he has 7 through 4 games and needs 11 in his last 12 to break it. at 1.5 to 1 there appears to be some value in no. Always an injury and Welker missed two early games right i know not a huge threat but he did have a 3 td game week 1
WEEK 6 SPECIAL - Will Julius Thomas break the Single Season TD record by a Tight End of 17?
2014 Regular Season
WEEK 6 SPECIAL - Will Julius Thomas break the Single Season TD record by a Tight End of 17?
2014 Regular Season
11:00p
Yes-200
No+150
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I spent a lot of today reading Behindthenet. Good stuff.
For hockey guys, is there a general time remaining/goals behind change of pace "switch"?
For example, down 2 goals with 10 minutes left or down 1 going into the 3rd period. A "switch" when the team behind starts a furious pace while the winning team tries to control the clock.
It seems like teams would generally play at a consistent pace up to a certain point where they are desperate to win or simply in preventive mode.
For hockey guys, is there a general time remaining/goals behind change of pace "switch"?
For example, down 2 goals with 10 minutes left or down 1 going into the 3rd period. A "switch" when the team behind starts a furious pace while the winning team tries to control the clock.
It seems like teams would generally play at a consistent pace up to a certain point where they are desperate to win or simply in preventive mode.
It probably varies by team, but I think most teams with a lead in the 3rd period would tend to play more defensively and vice versa. Also, probably just gets elevated in the last 10 minutes or so.
In hockey, if the game is tied late in the 3rd, you will often see both teams get more conservative as they play for a tie and guarantee themselves each at least a point.
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Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Watching a replay of UFC bout between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson. If you want to get somebody hooked on UFC, have them watch this fight.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
how do you track the tackles? Been digging around PFF and noticed they do them also. This was week 5
Tm Total Solo AssistCAR 133 75 58DAL 134 102 32DEN 96 89 7DET 113 92 21GB 130 92 38IND 134 90 44JAX 111 93 18NE 146 80 66NO 127 90 37NYG 163 112 51PHI 120 108 12SD 128 103 25SF 119 90 29TEN 137 93 44WAS 133 71 62We’re continuing to see huge numbers from the Giants crew. Week 5 marks the second time they’ve topped 160 total tackles, and they awarded a season-high 1.77 tackles per opportunity. It’s no surprise that we saw big tackle performances out of Kemal Ishmael (14), Paul Worrilow (14), Jacquian Williams (14), Prince Shembo (14), and Antrel Rolle (11). The Giants are on the road the next two weeks and then head into their bye. We won’t see them home again until Week 9 when they face Indy. Upgrade Jerrell Freeman andD’Qwell Jackson in that one.
Besides New York, San Diego and Dallas stick out as the most favorable IDP venues in Week 5. The numbers were a bit spread out among the players in the Cowboys win over Houston, but this is a great indication of the IDP floor in this venue. In San Diego, we saw both David Harris and Dawan Landry top 10 tackles, so we’ll want to continue to exploit this crew for IDP purposes. The Chargers are home again next week against the Chiefs. Josh Mauga anyone?
Tennessee also appears to be a favorable crew. This makes George Wilson and Avery Williamsonespecially appealing fliers going forward.
Carolina, New England, and Washington remain extremely assist-heavy venues, with all three awarding solos on less than 60 percent of their total tackles. Fortunately, Luke Kuechly wasn’t impact much this time around, as 11 of his 15 total tackles were solos. But that’s more of an anomaly, and we should expect assist-heavy lines from players in these venues.
We’re going to see solo-heavy lines from players in Philly, Jacksonville, and Denver. While their total tackles numbers remain on the lowest end of the spectrum, we can still get strong fantasy performances in these venues. Paul Posluszny and Johnathan Cyprien both topped double-digits in Week 5. Likewise, T.J. McDonald managed 11 total tackles (10 solo) against the Eagles. The Denver crew is a little concerning. They’re currently among the league’s most stingy crews, which could impact Danny Trevathan going forward. The Broncos are on the road this week, but then have back-to-back home games, so keep that in mind.
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modogg
Footballguy
ohh, i got a list of fights to watch if you want some good one's. Just let me know. It all depends what you like, but Anthony Pettis or Mark Hunt are good places to start
modogg
Footballguy
So for that survivor pool i am in, this week coming up looks tricky. I can choose any team except for Denver, San Diego and Seattle. Last week only eliminated 27 people, so 675 left. The obvious picks people may gravitate too are Cincy (-7) over Carolina and Tenn (-6) over Jax. I don't really like either. Maybe people will back off of Cincy now with AJ being hurt, but I have to see more from that game last week to see if that was more of Carolina winning or Chicago losing. Cincy should come back and roll this week, but if that game was more of Carolina clicking to come back and win, i think staying away might be what i do there. So the one's i am thinking about are:
Arizona over Washington - In Arizona. This was my first instinct to play the Cards here, but i wonder how much the injuries to their defense will hold them back (no Patrick Peterson could really hurt, but Calais Campbell being out definitely hurts). Palmer and Stanton being iffy like they are makes me worried.I think Palmer will start, but who knows if he isn't re-injured in the 2nd Q, and logan Thomas is in the rest of the game. Washington has also looked good. People made a big deal out of their slaughter by NYG, but i have read a bunch about how tired they were after the Eagles game.
Atlanta over Chicago - In Atlanta. that's a biggie, finally home again. I worry about their defense and OL, but Matt Ryan still seems to be surviving. So again, is this Chicago coming up limp a few weeks in a row and showing some significant holes, or were they just unlucky? Chicago should come out like bats out of hell, like they did against Carolina. I definitely am leaning toward staying away, unless i hear some good news about Atlanta.
Green Bay over Miami - Game is in Miami, with them coming off a bye. But green Bay seems to be clicking now. 2 teams i do not know enough about to feel too confident, but Green Bay would seem to be a consideration.
Maybe Detroit over Minny in Minny, but that would have me scared the whole game. SF should beat up on STL on Monday night, but i don't trust SF for anything still. the rest of the games are a bunch on intra-divisional games. I like Philly over NYG, but can hardly depend on this team right now. Indy-Hou and Pitt-Cle are not games i feel good picking at all.
Arizona over Washington - In Arizona. This was my first instinct to play the Cards here, but i wonder how much the injuries to their defense will hold them back (no Patrick Peterson could really hurt, but Calais Campbell being out definitely hurts). Palmer and Stanton being iffy like they are makes me worried.I think Palmer will start, but who knows if he isn't re-injured in the 2nd Q, and logan Thomas is in the rest of the game. Washington has also looked good. People made a big deal out of their slaughter by NYG, but i have read a bunch about how tired they were after the Eagles game.
Atlanta over Chicago - In Atlanta. that's a biggie, finally home again. I worry about their defense and OL, but Matt Ryan still seems to be surviving. So again, is this Chicago coming up limp a few weeks in a row and showing some significant holes, or were they just unlucky? Chicago should come out like bats out of hell, like they did against Carolina. I definitely am leaning toward staying away, unless i hear some good news about Atlanta.
Green Bay over Miami - Game is in Miami, with them coming off a bye. But green Bay seems to be clicking now. 2 teams i do not know enough about to feel too confident, but Green Bay would seem to be a consideration.
Maybe Detroit over Minny in Minny, but that would have me scared the whole game. SF should beat up on STL on Monday night, but i don't trust SF for anything still. the rest of the games are a bunch on intra-divisional games. I like Philly over NYG, but can hardly depend on this team right now. Indy-Hou and Pitt-Cle are not games i feel good picking at all.
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
I was always a huge boxing fan growing up, but the sport is so dirty now, I stopped watching it for the most part about 15 years ago. (this coming from a vato) UFC has piqued my interest in the past couple of years, and I find that I like it more and more as time goes on.I would like to watch more great matches and would greatly appreciate any recommendations. Thanks.
modogg
Footballguy
I was a big boxing fan too, but just kind of lost interest, and yeah as i got to know more about the sport, the more i disliked about it. I still try to follow, but i just don't have the passion like i used to.
So for MMA, one of the good things about it is the diversity. best place to start is http://mmaversus.com. Starting out by catching fights with good stand-up is a good way to start. I am so biased though, that i am not sure how good i can pick some of these. Watching a fight like Mart Hunt-Stefan Struve or Mark Hunt vs. Bigfoot Silva is great if you love the heavyweights. Guys with good boxing skills are like a Nick Diaz maybe if you want to see his fights. let me make this simple, here is a quick list to start with:
Anderson Silva-Forrest Griffin (watching what Anderson can do is just beautiful)
Mark Hunt -Bigfoot Silva (just a battle of 2 monsters, pure heart)
Mark Hunt - Stefan Struve (i think i love these so much because i know the guys, but still great fight)
Pat Berry - Chieck Kongo
Scott Smith - Pete Sell
Eddie Alvarez - Mike Chandler
there are just so many, and with MMA being so diverse, it depends on what you like. Try those and let me know what you think, but you have a whole world to look at yet for some good one's. I actually am going to check out that Sell-Smith fight again, pretty sweet.
John Bender
Footballguy
A few Clay Guida bouts I'd put in there too if you want a good mix.
His fight versus Diego Sanchez from about 5 years ago comes to mind?
modogg
Footballguy
here is Scott Smith-Pete Sell. Not one i would put as the top of the list for greatest fights in the UFC, but just fun to watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXFXvaE49YA
probably better quality video out there somewhere too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXFXvaE49YA
probably better quality video out there somewhere too.
modogg
Footballguy
Yeah i was thinking Diego fights like the one against BJ or Gil Melendez. Guida's earlier fights were a little better, his fight against BJ Penn is a real good one to watch. Avoid Guida-Maynard at all costs though
John Bender
Footballguy
Also would add
If you wanna show someone how awesome striking in the UFC can be, you gotta find a Liddell fight. Maybe Liddell vs Silva?
ETA: Wanderlei that is
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modogg
Footballguy
Yup, that was what i was thinking too. I was thinking of Chuck Liddell vs. Babalu (Renato Sobral) or I think Chuck vs. Tito 1 was good. The Chuck-Wandy fight I think didn't work for me because my expectations were so high.
But going that route, check out something like Rashad vs. Chuck (sad), and then watch Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida.
But speaking of Wandy, a good one is Wandy Silva vs. Brian Stann. There are other one's too, but that one stands out to me
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John Bender
Footballguy
Chuck vs Wanderlei was amazing because both were big boys.
Both were older
Both of them had possibly the two toughest chins in the business and they did nothing but the punch the #### out of each other for the entire match
The 2nd half of round 2 was insane. I remember standing watching it. Just when you think Wanderlei was about to be knocked out, he comes back from the dead with a combination that rocks Liddell, and then Liddell counters when it looks like he's about to hit the mat.
Found a link
http://mmavstemp.blogspot.com/2013/11/wanderlei-silva-vs-chuck-liddell-fight.html
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
Denny'sfightsdotcom
comfortably numb
Footballguy
wait a minute
vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?
Thats been my go to for the last couple years
vodka and cranberry is a girlie drink?
Thats been my go to for the last couple years
modogg
Footballguy
Ok, pulling my inner-Chainsaw here: Bengals are 11-0 straight up and against the spread in their last 11 regular season home games. Throw in the extra motivation from getting kicked around Sunday night, and i think this team is veteran enough to not sink into their shell or lose a ton of confidence after that loss, and bounce back with a win. Taking Cincy for my survivor pool, until someone else can convince me otherwise 
John Bender
Footballguy
hagmania
Footballguy
Even minus AJ Green?Ok, pulling my inner-Chainsaw here: Bengals are 11-0 straight up and against the spread in their last 11 regular season home games. Throw in the extra motivation from getting kicked around Sunday night, and i think this team is veteran enough to not sink into their shell or lose a ton of confidence after that loss, and bounce back with a win. Taking Cincy for my survivor pool, until someone else can convince me otherwise
comfortably numb
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
u1.5 1P
SJ/LA
VAN/CGY
SJ/LA
VAN/CGY
Billy Bats
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
That is so weird because I let my one nut hang out of my pants at school today. Kings are 9-1 SU L10 at home versus the Sharks. I took the Kings. And the over in Calgary. Action junkie.
modogg
Footballguy
also joined the kings to make up for the cash i lost on the Flyers 
John Bender
Footballguy
Me too
But it was to make up for the cash I just lost playing poker heads up vs Otis again
ugh
