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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

Not sure if I posted this before, but this guy is a good CFB follow.

He was one of the rare good cappers at Covers back in the day.

ETA: he's excellent with CBB totals.

 
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DirecTV is giving their all-inclusive NHL package for about another week. The SOG at the top of the screen next to the score has got to be a good sign. Might become a common deal like the R+H+E in baseball. Never noticed them having that before, but instantly thought of you guys when I saw it.

 
ChainsawU said:
DirecTV is giving their all-inclusive NHL package for about another week. The SOG at the top of the screen next to the score has got to be a good sign. Might become a common deal like the R+H+E in baseball. Never noticed them having that before, but instantly thought of you guys when I saw it.
Click to expand...
Haven't seen this. This is real?

 
Both hockey games I've seen so far this season have had SOG in addition to the score and game clock in the top left corner of the screen.

 
The Ref said:
Still working out the kinks on this one. i don't think there is as big an edge as SOG props but I think in the right situations there is some value here assuming you can get a bet in at -115. I got Pitt last night.... although I expected Crosby to take the draw and he didn't.

Opening faceoff

Columbus

Vancouver
Click to expand...
Ok so sitting at 2-1 after tonight.

Surprisingly it was Arcobbello that beat Sedin, but taking a road team is always going to be a bit risky. Going to be interesting tracing how often these plays blow up on the road vs at home.

 
ChainsawU said:
Temple 7-1 ATS on the road since last season (avg line 9.8). I know you're not supposed to take away games, but if you take away their 6-point effort at Notre Dame in week one last year, they have averaged 32 ±11 points per game in their seven road games since then. I like that the book is making you play their team total o21½ instead of the flat 21. Also, Sagarin only made Houston around a 1-point favorite in this game. Taking all those things into consideration, I figure if both teams reach 24 points I'll be good for an action junkie play in the late game after the hockey.

Temple/Houston o51 -130
Click to expand...
All we needed was Temple to run three or four hundred more plays inside the Houston 5 yard line and we would have got there......

Nice bet... this game should have sailed over.

 
The Ref said:
The Ref said:
Still working out the kinks on this one. i don't think there is as big an edge as SOG props but I think in the right situations there is some value here assuming you can get a bet in at -115. I got Pitt last night.... although I expected Crosby to take the draw and he didn't.

Opening faceoff

Columbus

Vancouver
Click to expand...
Ok so sitting at 2-1 after tonight.

Surprisingly it was Arcobbello that beat Sedin, but taking a road team is always going to be a bit risky. Going to be interesting tracing how often these plays blow up on the road vs at home.
Click to expand...
Are you familiar with the log5 formula? Really perfect for things like this.

 
Wondering if any of you guys ever parlay large dogs with the unders of games.

Example could have been Fresno/Boise tonight, taking Fresno at +17 and the under 62.

Now, I would only look into this if I were going to bet the under anyway, but basically if you ever plan to bet the under and the spread is high enough, do you throw the dog into it for a parlay for the hell of it if the spread is big enough?

Some of the spreads are so big the website I use won't allow a parlay betting the dog and the under (but of course they will let you parlay the under with the favorite, which would be insane since so few final scores would give you that win).

One example I see just glancing is the Tulane/UCF game. Spread 19.5 and the O/U is 43.5

If that game does go under, you gotta figure the chances of Tulane covering the 19.5 are enough above 50% to add it to the bet.

Just bored and spitballin

 
Good Posting Judge said:
The Ref said:
The Ref said:
Still working out the kinks on this one. i don't think there is as big an edge as SOG props but I think in the right situations there is some value here assuming you can get a bet in at -115. I got Pitt last night.... although I expected Crosby to take the draw and he didn't.

Opening faceoff

Columbus

Vancouver
Click to expand...
Ok so sitting at 2-1 after tonight.

Surprisingly it was Arcobbello that beat Sedin, but taking a road team is always going to be a bit risky. Going to be interesting tracing how often these plays blow up on the road vs at home.
Click to expand...
Are you familiar with the log5 formula? Really perfect for things like this.
Click to expand...
Nope...

 
ghostguy123 said:
Wondering if any of you guys ever parlay large dogs with the unders of games.

Example could have been Fresno/Boise tonight, taking Fresno at +17 and the under 62.

Now, I would only look into this if I were going to bet the under anyway, but basically if you ever plan to bet the under and the spread is high enough, do you throw the dog into it for a parlay for the hell of it if the spread is big enough?

Some of the spreads are so big the website I use won't allow a parlay betting the dog and the under (but of course they will let you parlay the under with the favorite, which would be insane since so few final scores would give you that win).

One example I see just glancing is the Tulane/UCF game. Spread 19.5 and the O/U is 43.5

If that game does go under, you gotta figure the chances of Tulane covering the 19.5 are enough above 50% to add it to the bet.

Just bored and spitballin
Click to expand...
This is a really great idea.... unfortunately this something called a correlated parlay and 99.9% of sportsbooks wont take action on a large dog and an under or a large favorite and a over.

 
We have been spoiled with the college football season so far with all the great games around the clock. Unfortunately the Noon schedule tomorrow looks like crap. OU vs K-State is about it.... maybe Baylor WVU if you want to watch a video game.

 
Another thing I do when I see games where it makes sense..........1st half (generally only college applies)

I will see a 1st half spread of like 26.5 and the O/U is like 32.

I will place something on the dog at +26.5, and then a separate bet on the OVER.

Basically if the dog scores ANY POINTS it's impossible to lose both bets.

If the dog is shut out the only way you can lose both is if the score is exactly 27 thru 31 scored by the favorite. I suppose also you push one and lose one if it is 32-0.

I usually see 1-2 games like this each week (though none this week I believe). I have been betting every one of these that I see and definitely coming out on top overall with them. Probably like 25-30 total games between last year and this year. One of these days I will go back and look at all the bets to see just how many won/lost/push.

More boredom spitballin

 
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The Ref said:
ghostguy123 said:
Wondering if any of you guys ever parlay large dogs with the unders of games.

Example could have been Fresno/Boise tonight, taking Fresno at +17 and the under 62.

Now, I would only look into this if I were going to bet the under anyway, but basically if you ever plan to bet the under and the spread is high enough, do you throw the dog into it for a parlay for the hell of it if the spread is big enough?

Some of the spreads are so big the website I use won't allow a parlay betting the dog and the under (but of course they will let you parlay the under with the favorite, which would be insane since so few final scores would give you that win).

One example I see just glancing is the Tulane/UCF game. Spread 19.5 and the O/U is 43.5

If that game does go under, you gotta figure the chances of Tulane covering the 19.5 are enough above 50% to add it to the bet.

Just bored and spitballin
Click to expand...
This is a really great idea.... unfortunately this something called a correlated parlay and 99.9% of sportsbooks wont take action on a large dog and an under or a large favorite and a over.
Click to expand...
Right. Now, tonight, my website DID allow both of these parlays. I didnt do it cause I bet the over, but had I wanted the under I would have definitely inclused Fresno at +17.5 at the time I made the bet.

I am not sure how large of a spread they allow for this though. And as for sportsbooks like in vegas or whatever, who knows what their limitations are for this.

 
The Ref said:
Good Posting Judge said:
The Ref said:
The Ref said:
Still working out the kinks on this one. i don't think there is as big an edge as SOG props but I think in the right situations there is some value here assuming you can get a bet in at -115. I got Pitt last night.... although I expected Crosby to take the draw and he didn't.

Opening faceoff

Columbus

Vancouver
Click to expand...
Ok so sitting at 2-1 after tonight.

Surprisingly it was Arcobbello that beat Sedin, but taking a road team is always going to be a bit risky. Going to be interesting tracing how often these plays blow up on the road vs at home.
Click to expand...
Are you familiar with the log5 formula? Really perfect for things like this.
Click to expand...
Nope...
Click to expand...
Here's the equation. I think most calculators can do this? I'm not sure, I'm pretty stupid as far as math goes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5

 
Which website do you use, gg123?

I'd bet them as much as possible, for normal amounts, and then plead ignorance if they shut you down/get pissed. Correlated parlays are pretty much free money, though.

ghostguy123 said:
Another thing I do when I see games where it makes sense..........1st half (generally only college applies)

I will see a 1st half spread of like 26.5 and the O/U is like 32.

I will place something on the dog at +26.5, and then a separate bet on the OVER.

Basically if the dog scores ANY POINTS it's impossible to lose both bets.

If the dog is shut out the only way you can lose both is if the score is exactly 27 thru 31 scored by the favorite. I suppose also you push one and lose one if it is 32-0.

I usually see 1-2 games like this each week (though none this week I believe). I have been betting every one of these that I see and definitely coming out on top overall with them. Probably like 25-30 total games between last year and this year. One of these days I will go back and look at all the bets to see just how many won/lost/push.

More boredom spitballin
Click to expand...
I think this one's a bit less foolproof. If a team is +26.5 for the half, there's too good of a chance that they will score 0 points in 1H.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Which website do you use, gg123?

I think this one's a bit less foolproof. If a team is +26.5 for the half, there's too good of a chance that they will score 0 points in 1H.
Click to expand...
topbet.com

Reputable I guess, I have been paid out a few times over the last couple years. If I ever get over a certain amount I take the 40 dollar cash out hit, just to make sure I dont get money frozen overseas or wherever the hell they are.

And while I agree the other one is less foolproof, it has worked well for me to this point over the course of 25-30 games which is a good enough sample size for me to think it's a good idea to keep doing it. It's by no means some big money maker, but it makes money. The chances of hitting BOTH are so much greater than losing both that it makes it worth losing 5% of the bet amounts for all the times you split. Cause generally it splits a pretty high percentage of the time.

Like I said, I only bet about 25-30 of them over a year and a half span of college football (once with NFL last year when Denver played the Jags), so I only do it when it makes total sense, and will do it every time from here on out. Not big amounts.

As far as the parlays, the site will tell you right away when you hit the parlay button if they will allow you to include the bets you have picked.

I have no idea how big of spreads they will allow with certain unders to this point though. Impossible to tell really.

 
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Ok. It would not allow a parlay on the NC State/Louisville game of under NC State +17.5 and under 48.5

Will not allow a parlay of +12.5 and under 46..............but for a different game it WILL allow +12.5 and under 44

It WOULD allow the Fresno State +17.5 and under 62 from earlier.

It will also allow +20.5 and under 64.5.....and also will allow +21 and under 62........................but NOT allow +22 and under 64.......

Also not allowing +20 and under 56.

Seems to not be a formula, just kind of a "we just wont allow this one" kinda thing they got goin on

 
Hmm, this topbet.com site doesnt have a ton of props really, but this one I find interesting.

Betting on which division will win the Super Bowl.

The NFC east is 15-1. So 15-1 and you get both Dallas and Philly (and of course the outside shot with the Giants).

I am thinking that calls for SOME sort of action

 
hmm, and it makes no sense cause right now on the site in another section the Cowbows are 12-1 by themselves and Philly is 16-1. i smell a glitch

 
Intellivision is where it was at back in the day. Numbered key pads with overlays and a disc as a joystick?? Gold. :thumbup:

It matched perfectly with the 70's tv cabinet:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/66/Intellivision-Console-Set.jpg

Then they got hip and spiced it up for intellivision II:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Intellivision-II-Console-Set.jpg

George Plimpton was a pimp for them, look how much better the graphics were!!! :lol:

http://www.intellivisionlives.com/bluesky/media/media_pix/plimpton.gif

.

 
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Billy Bats said:
Intellivision is where it was at back in the day. Numbered key pads with overlays and a disc as a joystick?? Gold. :thumbup:

Then they got hip and spiced it up for intellivision II:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Intellivision-II-Console-Set.jpg
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, I had that one. Loved some of those games. My brother still has our system somewhere I believe.

The football game was great. Even had more plays than tecmo super bowl. But it was like 4 players on each team, kinda odd.

I remember a golf game that was nearly impossible. Some tank shooting game. The first game ever that talked, something like B-52 Bomber or something.

haha, some of the game has these funny little inserts you put over the numbers so you knew what the buttons did.

yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 
ghostguy123 said:
Billy Bats said:
Intellivision is where it was at back in the day. Numbered key pads with overlays and a disc as a joystick?? Gold. :thumbup:

Then they got hip and spiced it up for intellivision II:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Intellivision-II-Console-Set.jpg
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, I had that one. Loved some of those games. My brother still has our system somewhere I believe.

The football game was great. Even had more plays than tecmo super bowl. But it was like 4 players on each team, kinda odd.

I remember a golf game that was nearly impossible. Some tank shooting game. The first game ever that talked, something like B-52 Bomber or something.

haha, some of the game has these funny little inserts you put over the numbers so you knew what the buttons did.

yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Click to expand...
:lol: So awesome!

Football was 5v5, only so many bytes to go around:

http://www.mobygames.com/images/shots/l/50197-nfl-football-intellivision-screenshot-lining-ups.gif

Armor Battle! Spent hours on end on this one:

http://static.giantbomb.com/uploads/original/0/347/1307393-armorbattle_tanks2.png

 
Look at those Spartans at -17 now. Is Don Diamont's 160 lb son going to be able to finish the game? Who is Indiana's 4th string qb??

 
The Ref said:
We have been spoiled with the college football season so far with all the great games around the clock. Unfortunately the Noon schedule tomorrow looks like crap. OU vs K-State is about it.... maybe Baylor WVU if you want to watch a video game.
Click to expand...
perfect have the football, soccer, golf lineup going from 10-5

 
I really liked The Legend of Zelda. One of my 3 dads who I wasn't living with tried to make up for not being around by buying my brother and I the Nintendo right when it came out. For whatever reason (I think the introduction of green into my life had a lot to do with it) but the games that sucked my life the most were Final Fantasy 7 and The Pizza Hut sampler (free playstation sample games). At one point in time I seriously think I could outscore anybody in the states on the 1st level of Tony Hawk pt 1. It was great in that the game took 2 minutes so if we had 20+ people hanging around my house everyone could play relatively quick with 2 players at a time and 2 minutes a turn. I bought the Tony Hawk game but we usually just played the sampler for some reason. Remember that Bond 007 game? I spent a lot of time of that, too. Now I occasionally play the zombie part of Call of Duty with my kiddo..about it though. Not a huge gamer these days. Maybe I should poke more smot.

 
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