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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
One astute FFAWT poster once told me, "the bigger the write-up, the less I trust it." I think a lot of it has to do with people trying to talk themselves into bets with flimsy data. Saw is a guy who does research and posts great write-ups, but besides him a sentence or two might be all I need to tail. But if I see Rude post a hockey prop, mo post a MMA, or frosty post a bases pick I don't need reasoning. I only bet CFB, NFL teasers, and hockey. People know I'm hot and cold, but that my reasoning is usually solid.
Then his thread might not be for you
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well just curious then, who is on GT over FSU??
And who is on Wisc over OSU?
Parlay in, both moneylines, pays 3:1.
And who is on Wisc over OSU?
Parlay in, both moneylines, pays 3:1.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I did start another..............................maybe some day it will turn into what it was intended to be
modogg
Footballguy
speaking of MMA, good UFC card tonight. Wish I had the chance to break some of these down more, but have been busy. I like some of the big favorites, but tail those at your own risk. out of the big boys, I like these the best:
Browne -330
Fergusson -250
Faber -450
Anthony Pettis -220
Pettis is a bit of an emotion play cause I am a huge fan of the guy. The other 3 are one's I am very confident in winning those fights. All depends on how much you want to risk. I haven't been hitting as good lately as I used to. Variety of reasons for that, but I don't want to list too many big favorites and cost anybody money if I don't do the needed work to make sure it is a good play. I think if I have to choose 1 of those above to take I may like Browne the most. but all are good bets.
For those who like a little better ROI, I am on these as well:
Pennginton +165
Hobar +260
Lawlor +180
Some of these have moved. I like Hobar the least out of those 3. If I had to choose 3 fights to ride with tonight I would say Lawlor +180, Pennington +165, and Browne -330. if we push 4 I think I would take Faber because that guy simply doesn't lose fights in the top 10-15. if you get him a championship fight though, fade away. Fergusson should really light up Truhillo as well, but Abe could land a solid shot and make it a tougher fight
Lol, see Ghostguy. This friggin' post is already longer then it should be and I really didn't even break down any of the fights.
It has been a long time since I have had a clean sweep of a card (I think)
Browne -330
Fergusson -250
Faber -450
Anthony Pettis -220
Pettis is a bit of an emotion play cause I am a huge fan of the guy. The other 3 are one's I am very confident in winning those fights. All depends on how much you want to risk. I haven't been hitting as good lately as I used to. Variety of reasons for that, but I don't want to list too many big favorites and cost anybody money if I don't do the needed work to make sure it is a good play. I think if I have to choose 1 of those above to take I may like Browne the most. but all are good bets.
For those who like a little better ROI, I am on these as well:
Pennginton +165
Hobar +260
Lawlor +180
Some of these have moved. I like Hobar the least out of those 3. If I had to choose 3 fights to ride with tonight I would say Lawlor +180, Pennington +165, and Browne -330. if we push 4 I think I would take Faber because that guy simply doesn't lose fights in the top 10-15. if you get him a championship fight though, fade away. Fergusson should really light up Truhillo as well, but Abe could land a solid shot and make it a tougher fight
Lol, see Ghostguy. This friggin' post is already longer then it should be and I really didn't even break down any of the fights.
It has been a long time since I have had a clean sweep of a card (I think)
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
Pretty much everything Dr. D said up above, but also, if you think Vegas is underestimating the impact at -4, why not take the spread? Why bet the moneyline there. Makes no sense to me. But please, by all means bet Wisco.
Cardale is good dude. He's big, he can run, he has a strong arm, and he can jump over dudes. Not to mention Urban Meyer is the QB whisperer.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
And if you want reasoning just ask someone, I don't think people would be offended.
I like Ohio State because I think they are the more complete team, and Jones will be given a package of plays that incorporate the things he does best.
I like Baylor because they are much faster than K-State sideline to sideline, the game is in Waco, and K-State has been fairly fortunate this year in games they should have lost.
I liked the under in the TCU game today because I've watched Iowa State's offense this year, because TCU was going to be aggressive on both sides of the ball, and that there was a good chance they'd sit on the ball in the 4th with a big lead knowing Patterson (they took a knee at the ISU 5 on 4th down with 4 minutes left!).
I liked the Zona/Ducks under yesterday based on Oregon's issues with Zona's 335 D over the past two meetings, the crappy surface at Levi, and the fact Arizona has a frosh QB.
NIU bet was because they are a superior team who was giving less than a TD on a neutral field, almost no thought beyond that.
I like Ohio State because I think they are the more complete team, and Jones will be given a package of plays that incorporate the things he does best.
I like Baylor because they are much faster than K-State sideline to sideline, the game is in Waco, and K-State has been fairly fortunate this year in games they should have lost.
I liked the under in the TCU game today because I've watched Iowa State's offense this year, because TCU was going to be aggressive on both sides of the ball, and that there was a good chance they'd sit on the ball in the 4th with a big lead knowing Patterson (they took a knee at the ISU 5 on 4th down with 4 minutes left!).
I liked the Zona/Ducks under yesterday based on Oregon's issues with Zona's 335 D over the past two meetings, the crappy surface at Levi, and the fact Arizona has a frosh QB.
NIU bet was because they are a superior team who was giving less than a TD on a neutral field, almost no thought beyond that.
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
At the very least, props to Ghostguy for at least having a book and not coming in asking "where is the best place to place bets online." I'm playing OSU o27 because of the total jumping this morning and because this Championship game has averaged 80 points per game, with Wisconsin giving up 31,39 in two of them.
p.s. Nobody else wanted to #### that linesman working the CUSA Championship game this morning?
p.s. Nobody else wanted to #### that linesman working the CUSA Championship game this morning?
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
That 3rd down pass is incomplete you go from game over from kneeling on the ball to punting now with 45 seconds left and other team only needing a FG
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Saw>what do the numbers say on the MWC game tonight? Looking for a lean there, especially on the total. TIA.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I still wish Tech would have punted instead of trying a 50-yarder. Also.. Also.. The Marshall kicker missing the field goal to end the 1H, only to have an extra shot at it because the Tech coach called a timeout. All my beef is with the Tech coach. Other things like the timeout before the punt from the opposing team's 45-yard line? Take the five-yard delay of game penalty. Dude also missed a reviewable play that would have gotten them off the 1-yard line. But in his defense, he did challenge that one play that resulted in a turnover.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Last year's championship went under; a 24-17 game that was lined at 61. If I get more I'll let you know. L-Tech got me sad. Lots of time though so hopefully a gym sesh and then this late game will get me turnt up to do some balls-out style data mining that you only read about in books.
I need more inspiring angles than just championship game, 23-point spread, 70-point total.. and haven't done any reading on the matchup yet
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The Ref
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
this is so typically in my wheelhouse, but i just can't see Mizzou doing anything
ETA: went for .5u like a #####
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Boise is 4-11 ATS in conference play since 2012 when they lay more than 10. Those ATS wins came versus Wyoming (3x) and Hawaii. Since 2007 (entire db) Fresno lined as the dog with a total of 63 or more is 0-7-1 O/U against an average total of 67.3. And then you have the "last game of the night factor" as well. I bet we could get Ref to bet the under with us in honor of Nevada being part of the MWC and going 8-4 to the under this season, since they don't have a game for us to bet tonight.
got_nugs
Footballguy
MO! Just saw these. Tailed. Sorry, i'll be acting like an ### watching them Noles but i'll check in to the prelims too. Thanks for posting posty.
modogg
Footballguy
if you shop around you can probably find good lines. i only checked RB, but some of them moved significantly
got_nugs
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Here is my DK lineup that I am jinxing myself with after bragging how awesome I am doing
Tannenhill
Gore
Mathews
Gordon
Charles Johnson
Hopkins
Cobb
Wright
Broncos
Tannenhill
Gore
Mathews
Gordon
Charles Johnson
Hopkins
Cobb
Wright
Broncos
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Baylor under
Big 10 over
Noles -3.5
Big 10 over
Noles -3.5
Clorox
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
