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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (12 Viewers)

Didn't tail but god call by Ref on the Fresnos.

Thanks to Saw and Ref for the tail win, not thanks to the jerks who suggested FSU 2h ruining my perfect weekend. :hot:

I kid. I'm rich #####es!!!!!!!!

 
Good job, Doc. Thanks for asking about the Fresno total or else never otherwise would have played it. Anyway, not to interrupt, but I been writing for a while and wanted to put this in before bed. Nice day today though, and congrats.

Okay, so it seems like Jeff Fisher has been the coach of the Rams for a while, right? This will be the first time they will have been lined the road favorite since he became head coach. They shut out the Raiders last week. Since last season, teams are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS (avg line -1.5) after shutting out their opponent in the previous game. And right now 94% of the money is on the Rams. However, I was ready to get down on the Redskins before trying out some new database stuff and finding this:

The Rams gained 15 first downs and were 1/8 on third down in that Raiders game. Since Fisher has been head coach, in the subsequent game after the Rams converted ≤ 1/3 of their third downs the Rams are 10-5-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (avg line 4.8) and 5-2-1 SU and 7-1 ATS (avg line 5.7) in those games on the road. Now, does that mean anything? Because usually when you are converting ≤ 1/3 of your third downs it means you are sucking. But they beat the Raiders 52-0. I've got some more stuff too, all gleaned from TeamRankings:

  • Miami averages 4.6 yards per rush (5th NFL).
  • Redskin QBs have a better combined completion percentage L3 games (65.66%) than Peyton Manning in his L3 games (64.23%).
  • Ravens are 5-1 O/U away
  • Tannehill is 3-1 SU and ATS in his career as the home favorite when he is laying 3 or less with 9 TD and 1 INT.
  • Cleveland leads the league in yards per completion (13.2) and only drop 2.7% of their passes (2nd NFL).
  • Rams' QBs are sacked 3.5 times per game on the road (31st NFL).
  • Oakland QBs are only sacked 0.4 times per game at home (1st NFL).
  • Oakland leads the league in 4th down conversions at 75% (9 of 12).
  • The Colts average 35.0 points per game away (1st NFL) and are 4-0-1 O/U away.
  • New England scores a touchdown 66% of the time once they reach the RZ: 56.25% of the time at home and 83.33% of the time on the road.
  • Pittsburgh scores touchdowns once they reach the RZ 30% of the time on the road (32nd NFL).
  • Washington allows 18.4 first downs per game (2nd NFL).
  • Carolina's average time of posession on the road is 33:41 (1st NFL).
  • Buffalo leads the league in both sacks per game (4.0) and road sacks per game (4.5).
  • Philly sacks the opposing QB 3.5 times per game (2nd NFL) and 4.8 times per game at home (1st NFL).
  • Cinci throws 1.5 picks per game at home (31st NFL).
  • Seattle commits 8.5 penalties per game (32nd NFL) and 10 penalties per game away (32nd NFL).
I'm still thinking about running with the above writeup and playing the Redskins for action junkie noon action. 'Night fellas.

 
ChainsawU said:
Good job, Doc. Thanks for asking about the Fresno total or else never otherwise would have played it. Anyway, not to interrupt, but I been writing for a while and wanted to put this in before bed. Nice day today though, and congrats.

Okay, so it seems like Jeff Fisher has been the coach of the Rams for a while, right? This will be the first time they will have been lined the road favorite since he became head coach. They shut out the Raiders last week. Since last season, teams are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS (avg line -1.5) after shutting out their opponent in the previous game. And right now 94% of the money is on the Rams. However, I was ready to get down on the Redskins before trying out some new database stuff and finding this:

The Rams gained 15 first downs and were 1/8 on third down in that Raiders game. Since Fisher has been head coach, in the subsequent game after the Rams converted ≤ 1/3 of their third downs the Rams are 10-5-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (avg line 4.8) and 5-2-1 SU and 7-1 ATS (avg line 5.7) in those games on the road. Now, does that mean anything? Because usually when you are converting ≤ 1/3 of your third downs it means you are sucking. But they beat the Raiders 52-0. I've got some more stuff too, all gleaned from TeamRankings:

  • Miami averages 4.6 yards per rush (5th NFL).
  • Redskin QBs have a better combined completion percentage L3 games (65.66%) than Peyton Manning in his L3 games (64.23%).
  • Ravens are 5-1 O/U away
  • Tannehill is 3-1 SU and ATS in his career as the home favorite when he is laying 3 or less with 9 TD and 1 INT.
  • Cleveland leads the league in yards per completion (13.2) and only drop 2.7% of their passes (2nd NFL).
  • Rams' QBs are sacked 3.5 times per game on the road (31st NFL).
  • Oakland QBs are only sacked 0.4 times per game at home (1st NFL).
  • Oakland leads the league in 4th down conversions at 75% (9 of 12).
  • The Colts average 35.0 points per game away (1st NFL) and are 4-0-1 O/U away.
  • New England scores a touchdown 66% of the time once they reach the RZ: 56.25% of the time at home and 83.33% of the time on the road.
  • Pittsburgh scores touchdowns once they reach the RZ 30% of the time on the road (32nd NFL).
  • Washington allows 18.4 first downs per game (2nd NFL).
  • Carolina's average time of posession on the road is 33:41 (1st NFL).
  • Buffalo leads the league in both sacks per game (4.0) and road sacks per game (4.5).
  • Philly sacks the opposing QB 3.5 times per game (2nd NFL) and 4.8 times per game at home (1st NFL).
  • Cinci throws 1.5 picks per game at home (31st NFL).
  • Seattle commits 8.5 penalties per game (32nd NFL) and 10 penalties per game away (32nd NFL).
I'm still thinking about running with the above writeup and playing the Redskins for action junkie noon action. 'Night fellas.
Click to expand...
yeah, but can you explain why?

 
Watching A Football Life on Roger Staubach. Great show.

My uncle went to the academy with him (2 years his junior) and tells stories of his greatness as a person.

Nothing NFL for me tomorrow, gonna ride the 20 bet teaser streak.

 
ChainsawU said:
Rivers is 28-19-1 (.596) ATS as the underdog in his career (avg line 4.1). When he is getting +4 or more he is 15-7 (.682) ATS. He is also 22-26 (.458) SU in his career as the underdog. Rivers ranks 5th in the NFL in passer rating, helped out by his receivers, who have dropped 10 balls in 362 targets (2.8% drop rate; 2nd in the NFL behind Cleveland at 2.7%).
Click to expand...
He is now 23-26 (.469) SU and 29-19-1 (.604) ATS as the underdog in his career with a 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS record as the home dog in those games. He is 5-8 SU and 7-5-1 ATS as the underdog after winning the previous game as the underdog and 3-2 SU and ATS in that situation at home. But a bigger deal than that, check this out: The Patriots are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS since last season when playing on grass. The average score for the Pats in those games was 21 ±6. The average opponent score in those games was 29 ±6 link. I wouldn't go autobetting the Pats SU, ATS, or team total today, even if they have been in San Diego since Wednesday.

 
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ChainsawU said:
ChainsawU said:
Rivers is 28-19-1 (.596) ATS as the underdog in his career (avg line 4.1). When he is getting +4 or more he is 15-7 (.682) ATS. He is also 22-26 (.458) SU in his career as the underdog. Rivers ranks 5th in the NFL in passer rating, helped out by his receivers, who have dropped 10 balls in 362 targets (2.8% drop rate; 2nd in the NFL behind Cleveland at 2.7%).
Click to expand...
He is now 23-26 (.469) SU and 29-19-1 (.604) ATS as the underdog in his career with a 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS record as the home dog in those games. He is 5-8 SU and 7-5-1 ATS as the underdog after winning the previous game as the underdog and 3-2 SU and ATS in that situation at home. But a bigger deal than that, check this out: The Patriots are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS since last season when playing on grass. The average score for the Pats in those games was 21 ±6. The average opponent score in those games was 29 ±6 link. I wouldn't go autobetting the Pats SU, ATS, or team total today, even if they have been in San Diego since Wednesday.
Click to expand...
See this kinda stuff I like. Stats and numbers that correlate to the players currently playing, that are also recent trends for each side.

That said, I don't think I will be touching this game. If I did would probably bet small on the Chargers moneylin(+170 right now I see)

 
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ghostguy123 said:
ChainsawU said:
ChainsawU said:
Rivers is 28-19-1 (.596) ATS as the underdog in his career (avg line 4.1). When he is getting +4 or more he is 15-7 (.682) ATS. He is also 22-26 (.458) SU in his career as the underdog. Rivers ranks 5th in the NFL in passer rating, helped out by his receivers, who have dropped 10 balls in 362 targets (2.8% drop rate; 2nd in the NFL behind Cleveland at 2.7%).
Click to expand...
He is now 23-26 (.469) SU and 29-19-1 (.604) ATS as the underdog in his career with a 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS record as the home dog in those games. He is 5-8 SU and 7-5-1 ATS as the underdog after winning the previous game as the underdog and 3-2 SU and ATS in that situation at home. But a bigger deal than that, check this out: The Patriots are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS since last season when playing on grass. The average score for the Pats in those games was 21 ±6. The average opponent score in those games was 29 ±6 link. I wouldn't go autobetting the Pats SU, ATS, or team total today, even if they have been in San Diego since Wednesday.
Click to expand...
See this kinda stuff I like. Stats and numbers that correlate to the players currently playing, that are also recent trends for each side.

That said, I don't think I will be touching this game. If I did would probably bet small on the Chargers moneylin(+170 right now I see)
Click to expand...
You have your own nfl gambling thread now.

GTFO imo

 
Peter King says:

1 Alabama.

2 Oregon.

3 Florida State.

4 Ohio State.

:confused: So TCU just gets bumped?

Eta: Vegas thinks so too:

Alabama, Oregon, Florida St & Ohio St are favored (-300) to be the four CFB playoff teams. Any other four teams pays +200 (via TopBetSports)

7:59am - 7 Dec 14

 
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First of all, Thanks for all the plays yesterday. Great evening with Baylor, OSU, .. just wish I had tailed the NBA and MMA...

Not a lot I like today but did take the Balt/MIA O, INDY/CLE O, Wash +3, NYG 1.5

I was on the Browns getting rolled today earlier this week, but now that INDY is out both starting Corners today ( See Silva's Rotoworld Article), I am not so sure. I do see a bunch of points being scored there however.... probably cause I am going and I want to see a shootout! :homer: :banned: GLTA AB

 
ghostguy123 said:
someone needs a hug
Click to expand...
Sorry. I just don't get the whole shtick of acting like a tool, Crying like a little girl that this thread is full of ######### and it's impossible to talk nfl gambling in it, starting your own thread for NFL gambling only, yet coming back over here to talk nfl gambling in spite of all the #########You're quite the attention whuooooor

 
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ghostguy123 said:
someone needs a hug
Click to expand...
Breaking the balls and mocking an entire thread before you start posting in it isn't the best introduction you can make.

Just saying.

If your willing to sort through the occasional Cricket or Trampoline lean I think you will find this thread goodish.

 
Billy Bats said:
Peter King says:

1 Alabama.

2 Oregon.

3 Florida State.

4 Ohio State.

:confused: So TCU just gets bumped?

Eta: Vegas thinks so too:

Alabama, Oregon, Florida St & Ohio St are favored (-300) to be the four CFB playoff teams. Any other four teams pays +200 (via TopBetSports)

7:59am - 7 Dec 14
Click to expand...
Wow that's quite surprising

 
Lions have been favored by a TD or more twice since last season and they lost them both SU, one of which was a home game (-7.5) v TB in W12 last season. Since their week 7 bye, TB is yielding the least yards per pass in entire NFL and all 6 of those games have gone under the total. Tampa has outgained opponents 4 of last 5 games and have led in the 4Q in 6 of their last 9 games. The Lions have laid 9 or more twice in the last 4 years and six times since 1996; they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those L4 games in that situation link.

TB 400

TB +10½ -110

 
ChainsawU said:
Okay, so it seems like Jeff Fisher has been the coach of the Rams for a while, right? This will be the first time they will have been lined the road favorite since he became head coach. They shut out the Raiders last week. Since last season, teams are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS (avg line -1.5) after shutting out their opponent in the previous game. And right now 94% of the money is on the Rams.

  • Redskin QBs have a better combined completion percentage L3 games (65.66%) than Peyton Manning in his L3 games (64.23%).
  • Rams' QBs are sacked 3.5 times per game on the road (31st NFL).
  • Washington allows 18.4 first downs per game (2nd NFL).
Click to expand...
Redskins 140

Redskins +3 -120

 
EPL

Going with Aston Villa at home and the over

-Last 3 meetings have seen 13 total goals

-Leicester captain is suspended for the game

-On flip side, road team has won each of last 3 meetings

 
NCAA Division I - College Football Playoff

Sun 12/7 28149 Florida State makes 4 team playoff -25000 12:30PM

28150 Not selected for 4 team playoff -999999

Sun 12/7 28151 Ohio State makes 4 team playoff -195 12:30PM

28152 Not selected for 4 team playoff +155

Sun 12/7 28153 TCU makes 4 team playoff +168 12:30PM

28154 Not selected for 4 team playoff -225

Sun 12/7 28155 Baylor makes 4 team playoff +1500 12:30PM

28156 Not selected for 4 team playoff -4500

 
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Tiger Fan said:
Billy Bats said:
Dan Lambskin said:
not liking a lot today

Cincy -3 and Saints -9.5 so far
Click to expand...
I've been wondering all week how the Saints don't destroy Carolina. And people seem to be lighting up the Panthers, was 11.5 yesterday.
Click to expand...
The Saints are so damn Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde this year its ridiculous. I think they cover, but I don't trust them at all
Click to expand...
Absolutely agreed, they've burned me once or twice this year. But Carolina is that bad, their o-line is a joke and they can't stop nobody.

 
Have Eagles/Seahawks tix today.

Protestors planning to stage a "die-in" and lie down at the intersection of Broad and Pattison after the game - that's pretty much the only way out of the area. Could back up traffic for literally hours upon hours if that goes down

WTF

 
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Reginald Cornsilks said:
Have Eagles/Seahawks tix today.

Protestors planning to stage a "die-in" and lie down at the intersection of Broad and Pattison after the game - that's pretty much the only way out of the area. Could back up traffic for literally hours upon hours if that goes down

WTF
Click to expand...
It would be great if someone would run over/through a bunch of them. Bet that would end this form of protest.

 
The Ref said:
Reginald Cornsilks said:
Have Eagles/Seahawks tix today.

Protestors planning to stage a "die-in" and lie down at the intersection of Broad and Pattison after the game - that's pretty much the only way out of the area. Could back up traffic for literally hours upon hours if that goes down

WTF
Click to expand...
It would be great if someone would run over/through a bunch of them. Bet that would end this form of protest.
Click to expand...
I really question whether or not drunk Eagles fans would take it. 4:25 game means people are going to be extremely drunk. Might be interesting enough to still go.

 
Bender go east towards the river away from broad to third or there's a back road behind the stadium, under 95, to get to 95 south.

 
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BAL vs MIA

Landry over 4.5 -150

St. Smith under 62.5 -115

Tannenhill over 23 -125

Miller under 62.5 -115

Wallace over 4.5 -125

PIT vs CIN

Miller under 4 -130

Bell under 85.5 -105

Bell over 4 -135

Gio under 2.5 receptions -115

Gio under 72.5 rush.rec -115

CAR vs NO

Benjamin under 70.5 -115

Benjamin under 5 -125

Olsen under 56.5 -115

Ingram under 85.5 -115

Graham over 5 -125

Graham over 62.5 -125

IND vs CLE

Hilton under 85.5 -105

Gordon over 6 -120

DET vs TB

Tate over 5 -130

Martin under 45.5 -115

WAS vs STL

Morris under 75.5 (E)

Reed under 57.5 -105

S. Hill under 20.5 -115

McCoy over 20 -115

Mason under 67.5 -115

Mason under 19.5 receiving -115

TEN vs NYG

Sankey under 55.5 -115

Walker over 3.5 -150

Beckham over 5.5 (E)

JAX vs HOU

D. Robinson under 55.5 -115

Hurns under 40.5 -115

Hopkins over 74.5 -115

A. Johnson over 5 (E)




 
RB

Bet Unit

Rush Under 1.8 1.4

Rush Over 0.7 0.8

Rush+Rec Over 0.7 0.8

Rush+Rec Under 1.3 1.1

Receptions Over 0.7 0.9

Receptions Under 1.8 1.4

Receiving Over 0.5 0.7

Receiving Under 1.3 1.1

WR

Bet Unit

Receptions Over 1.1 1.0

Receptions Under 1.1 1.1

Receiving Over 1.0 1.0

Receiving Under 1.1 1.1

QB

Bet Unit

Passing Over 1.1 1.1

Passing Under 1.1 1.0

Completion Over 1.0 1.0

Completion Under 1.6 1.3

Rushing Over 0.6 0.8

Rushing Under 1.6 1.3

TE

Bet Unit

Receptions Over 1.0 1.0

Receptions Under 1.3 1.1

Receiving Over 0.5 0.7

Receiving Under 2.0 1.5

 
swirvenirvin said:
BAL vs MIA

Landry over 4.5 -150

St. Smith under 62.5 -115

Tannenhill over 23 -125

Miller under 62.5 -115

Wallace over 4.5 -125

PIT vs CIN

Miller under 4 -130

Bell under 85.5 -105

Bell over 4 -135

Gio under 2.5 receptions -115

Gio under 72.5 rush.rec -115

CAR vs NO

Benjamin under 70.5 -115

Benjamin under 5 -125

Olsen under 56.5 -115

Ingram under 85.5 -115

Graham over 5 -125

Graham over 62.5 -125

IND vs CLE

Hilton under 85.5 -105

Gordon over 6 -120

DET vs TB

Tate over 5 -130

Martin under 45.5 -115

WAS vs STL

Morris under 75.5 (E)

Reed under 57.5 -105

S. Hill under 20.5 -115

McCoy over 20 -115

Mason under 67.5 -115

Mason under 19.5 receiving -115

TEN vs NYG

Sankey under 55.5 -115

Walker over 3.5 -150

Beckham over 5.5 (E)

JAX vs HOU

D. Robinson under 55.5 -115

Hurns under 40.5 -115

Hopkins over 74.5 -115

A. Johnson over 5 (E)
Click to expand...
Top 3-5 plays here?

 
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