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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

So this is year 3 of my bowl system. It was 5-2 in year one and 6-4 last year(I said it was 6-3 a few days ago but there was another loss).

Basically I ran all the games through a formula with several variables I used to predict sides then totals. Once I did that I figured out the mean number and then the variance to come up with a point total standard deviation. From there I found anything beyond 3.5 points either way was an outlier on sides (2nd straight year I came up with this number), and anything beyond 4 was an outlier for totals. I will bet all the sides and overs now but hold off on all the unders since the public tends to like overs, those might become more favorable closer to gametime (lessons learned from the first two years).

Nevada +1 AUTOPLAY
Rice/Fresno St OVER 59 AUTOPLAY
Duke/Arizona State UNDER 68 AUTOPLAY
South Carolina +3 AUTOPLAY

TAMU +3.5 AUTOPLAY

Michigan State/Baylor UNDER 72.5 AUTOPLAY

Oregon/FSU UNDER 71.5 AUTOPLAY

Ohio State +9.5 AUTOPLAY

I would consider these games below strong leans, not autoplays. If any of them move in my favor I would not hesitate to play them, but for one reason or the other, I am holding putting money out on them for now.

Utah State/UTEP OVER 49 (autoplay at 48)

NIU +11

WKU -3 (autoplay at -2.5)

USC -6
Louisville +6.5

Ga Tech +7
Pitt -3 (autoplay at -2.5)

 
Doctor Detroit said:
So this is year 3 of my bowl system. It was 5-2 in year one and 6-4 last year(I said it was 6-3 a few days ago but there was another loss).

Basically I ran all the games through a formula with several variables I used to predict sides then totals. Once I did that I figured out the mean number and then the variance to come up with a point total standard deviation. From there I found anything beyond 3.5 points either way was an outlier on sides (2nd straight year I came up with this number), and anything beyond 4 was an outlier for totals. I will bet all the sides and overs now but hold off on all the unders since the public tends to like overs, those might become more favorable closer to gametime (lessons learned from the first two years).

Nevada +1 AUTOPLAY

Rice/Fresno St OVER 59 AUTOPLAY

Duke/Arizona State UNDER 68 AUTOPLAY

South Carolina +3 AUTOPLAY

TAMU +3.5 AUTOPLAY

Michigan State/Baylor UNDER 72.5 AUTOPLAY

Oregon/FSU UNDER 71.5 AUTOPLAY

Ohio State +9.5 AUTOPLAY

I would consider these games below strong leans, not autoplays. If any of them move in my favor I would not hesitate to play them, but for one reason or the other, I am holding putting money out on them for now.

Utah State/UTEP OVER 49 (autoplay at 48)

NIU +11

WKU -3 (autoplay at -2.5)

USC -6

Louisville +6.5

Ga Tech +7

Pitt -3 (autoplay at -2.5)
Click to expand...
THANKS DD!~@!~

 
Doctor Detroit said:
So this is year 3 of my bowl system. It was 5-2 in year one and 6-4 last year(I said it was 6-3 a few days ago but there was another loss).

Basically I ran all the games through a formula with several variables I used to predict sides then totals. Once I did that I figured out the mean number and then the variance to come up with a point total standard deviation. From there I found anything beyond 3.5 points either way was an outlier on sides (2nd straight year I came up with this number), and anything beyond 4 was an outlier for totals. I will bet all the sides and overs now but hold off on all the unders since the public tends to like overs, those might become more favorable closer to gametime (lessons learned from the first two years).

Nevada +1 AUTOPLAY

Rice/Fresno St OVER 59 AUTOPLAY

Duke/Arizona State UNDER 68 AUTOPLAY

South Carolina +3 AUTOPLAY

TAMU +3.5 AUTOPLAY

Michigan State/Baylor UNDER 72.5 AUTOPLAY

Oregon/FSU UNDER 71.5 AUTOPLAY

Ohio State +9.5 AUTOPLAY

I would consider these games below strong leans, not autoplays. If any of them move in my favor I would not hesitate to play them, but for one reason or the other, I am holding putting money out on them for now.

Utah State/UTEP OVER 49 (autoplay at 48)

NIU +11

WKU -3 (autoplay at -2.5)

USC -6

Louisville +6.5

Ga Tech +7

Pitt -3 (autoplay at -2.5)
Click to expand...
:blackdot:

 
Action Junkie 5PM EST: Youngstown State +14 -110

Since 2006 the SEC is 3-11 ATS (avg line -11.9) versus the Horizon League when they lay 6 points or more (0-7 ATS L7 since 2010).

Action Junkie 6PM EST: MEM +2 -110, ML 120

It's their 3rd meeting in just over 12 months. They went 1-1 SU and ATS L2 with a 5-point win at home as 6-point dogs and a 21-point loss @OKST as 9.5-point dogs. This total today, 132, is about 30 points less than the previous two (159,162). Memphis was ranked 21 and OkSt #5 last time they met. Going back to that game I got OkSt 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS non-conference roadies (avg line -5) and 5-15-1 ATS L21 away.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Action Junkie 7PM EST: Northern Iowa +7½ -110

Northern Iowa still has all five starters that beat VCU 77-68 last year. Miss Valley Conference is 11-6 ATS versus the A10 since 2012 against an average line of 7.4.

 
all my players are dead with the 3 teams I have in the playoffs.

Have Lacy in 2 and Julio in 2, Jennings in the same one I have Lacy and Julio in. Plus I have Julio for most receiving yards.

DUMB :(

 
Doctor Detroit said:
So this is year 3 of my bowl system. It was 5-2 in year one and 6-4 last year(I said it was 6-3 a few days ago but there was another loss).

Basically I ran all the games through a formula with several variables I used to predict sides then totals. Once I did that I figured out the mean number and then the variance to come up with a point total standard deviation. From there I found anything beyond 3.5 points either way was an outlier on sides (2nd straight year I came up with this number), and anything beyond 4 was an outlier for totals. I will bet all the sides and overs now but hold off on all the unders since the public tends to like overs, those might become more favorable closer to gametime (lessons learned from the first two years).

Nevada +1 AUTOPLAY

Rice/Fresno St OVER 59 AUTOPLAY

Duke/Arizona State UNDER 68 AUTOPLAY

South Carolina +3 AUTOPLAY

TAMU +3.5 AUTOPLAY

Michigan State/Baylor UNDER 72.5 AUTOPLAY

Oregon/FSU UNDER 71.5 AUTOPLAY

Ohio State +9.5 AUTOPLAY

I would consider these games below strong leans, not autoplays. If any of them move in my favor I would not hesitate to play them, but for one reason or the other, I am holding putting money out on them for now.

Utah State/UTEP OVER 49 (autoplay at 48)

NIU +11

WKU -3 (autoplay at -2.5)

USC -6

Louisville +6.5

Ga Tech +7

Pitt -3 (autoplay at -2.5)
Click to expand...
FWIW, PM is on the same side as you for Nevada, ASU/Duke u, Fres/Rice o, MSU/Bay u - for all at least a half unit. They're on WVU(.2u) and Miami (.1u) for a very "light" plays.

 
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