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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

JaxBill said:
Perplexed that Jaguars-Texans is down to 9.5. Opened at 12 and thought it would go the other way.
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The last time the Texans laid ten points at home they lost SU to the Jags - last season in week 12. Going back to last season they have laid more than a TD four times and went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those four games.

 
Raider Nation said:
It would be appreciated if you guys could post any whispers you might hear about Romo's playing time this week. I could really use him in a 2QB league championship game this week, but the only reason winning would matter to them is if DET & GB tie later in the day. I can't see them risking their studs for such an unlikely event. But all week, Garrett and Jerry have stuck with the "there are no unimportant games!" mantra. Who knows.

Still, I'd rather play a much lesser player like Bortles who I know will play 60 minutes over a guy who may or may not play for three series.
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i heard that it doesnt matter for dallas at all unless GB and DET tie. Now that game is later so they wont know but hoping for a tie to get a bye and have seattle lose. Doesnt seem probable. Not sure how it will be played out tho

 
swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
It would be appreciated if you guys could post any whispers you might hear about Romo's playing time this week. I could really use him in a 2QB league championship game this week, but the only reason winning would matter to them is if DET & GB tie later in the day. I can't see them risking their studs for such an unlikely event. But all week, Garrett and Jerry have stuck with the "there are no unimportant games!" mantra. Who knows.

Still, I'd rather play a much lesser player like Bortles who I know will play 60 minutes over a guy who may or may not play for three series.
Click to expand...
i heard that it doesnt matter for dallas at all unless GB and DET tie. Now that game is later so they wont know but hoping for a tie to get a bye and have seattle lose. Doesnt seem probable. Not sure how it will be played out tho
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:oldunsure:

 
got_nugs said:
Saw does the almanac like the wiz/tics under tomorrow?
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Somebody, maybe quant dudes, liked the u203. Tell me a little more about the two teams and what stuck out to you to like the under.

Btw, I'm down for some 7PM NBA action. Plenty of time to watch the line, cover all the bases, and bet the right side of the total by the time tipoff rolls around.

 
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Doc, if I come up with anything you'll be the first to know. But I haven't been feeling these bowl games. My capping needs solid history to fall back on, stuff that's been repeated over and over that I can average out. Loser had some good notes on N Cackalacka Stackalacka tonight (stacking paper). It was his writeup, the line movement off of +3, and UCF with >60% public love is what made me pull the trigger on that game.

Everything I do on these bowl games comes back the opposite. My reasearch for NCSt was that since 2011 they were 14-4 SU and 7-11 ATS versus non-conference. As the dog: 0-4 SU and ATS losing SU by 30,14,14,21 against an average line of +6. And the ACC was 0-2 SU and ATS as the dog versus the American before tonight, losing SU by 27 and 29 against an average line of +3.5. So, going by what I dug up, UCF should have won by DD.

What I should really do is try to dig up a real angle on the game so you guys can fade it.

I'm reading up on the UT game for Monday. That's where it's at, IMO.

 
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I like UT Monday FWIW, also like my Sooners going away.

College Bowls are a #####, no doubt about it. the Navy/SDSU game is a normal example of the chaos, the WKU/CMU game was as bad a beat as sports gambling can offer. This is my time though, this is the stuff I love betting most. I bet in October and November to build my roll to get to where I can unload on the bowls. Four of the last five years I've won, but this is a challenging atmosphere. I have no feel or statistical evaluation that gives me any kind of lean tomorrow on the Cincy/Va Tech game, so I ask. Your numbers make sense of the unknown.

 
I'm leaning the VT TT over. Cincy has the 101st ranked defense, while playing that horrendous schedule. UCF showed us last night how a top AAC team could fare against a middling ACC foe. Only difference is their defense was highly ranked.

The Bearcats signature win was, what? East Carolina? At home. They gave up 46 in that one. No reason to think Beamer's boys won't put up more than the 24 or whatever this line will be. That said, if I do play it, it will be small.

ETA: Because it sounds pretty dumb betting on VT over anything...

 
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Raider Nation said:
swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
It would be appreciated if you guys could post any whispers you might hear about Romo's playing time this week. I could really use him in a 2QB league championship game this week, but the only reason winning would matter to them is if DET & GB tie later in the day. I can't see them risking their studs for such an unlikely event. But all week, Garrett and Jerry have stuck with the "there are no unimportant games!" mantra. Who knows.

Still, I'd rather play a much lesser player like Bortles who I know will play 60 minutes over a guy who may or may not play for three series.
Click to expand...
i heard that it doesnt matter for dallas at all unless GB and DET tie. Now that game is later so they wont know but hoping for a tie to get a bye and have seattle lose. Doesnt seem probable. Not sure how it will be played out tho
Click to expand...
:oldunsure:
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right, yeah I'm not good at reading past the first sentence sometimes

 
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Raider Nation said:
swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
It would be appreciated if you guys could post any whispers you might hear about Romo's playing time this week. I could really use him in a 2QB league championship game this week, but the only reason winning would matter to them is if DET & GB tie later in the day. I can't see them risking their studs for such an unlikely event. But all week, Garrett and Jerry have stuck with the "there are no unimportant games!" mantra. Who knows.

Still, I'd rather play a much lesser player like Bortles who I know will play 60 minutes over a guy who may or may not play for three series.
Click to expand...
i heard that it doesnt matter for dallas at all unless GB and DET tie. Now that game is later so they wont know but hoping for a tie to get a bye and have seattle lose. Doesnt seem probable. Not sure how it will be played out tho
Click to expand...
:oldunsure:
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FWIW, I saw this in a DFS column earlier this week:

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON

Having locked up the NFC East, the Cowboys will host their first playoff game, but the round that game takes place in is still up in the air. The Cowboys have lots of routes to get to a bye, which is the best motivation a team can have, as the NFL bye is undefeated. They even have scenarios where they lock up home-field advantage for the extent of the NFC playoffs. As to those scenarios … (eyes glaze over) … they’re a bit confusing. Sometimes they want Seattle to lose, and sometimes not. Sometimes they want Green Bay and Detroit to tie, and sometimes not. They always want Arizona to lose, but sometimes a tie is good enough. Fortunately, every game that matters to them is after theirs, so it’ll be an Al Davis, “Just Win, Baby,” scenario for them.Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, ($8,900 each), both cost a pretty penny, but are both probably worth an ugly nickel. How ‘bout them Cowboys!
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link.

 
anyone have reg season NFL props grading this weekend?

Whatcha got?

LOSS

Foles > Dalton TDs

WIN

o9.5 Wins Colts

Colts to win AFC South

deciding today

2H WINS

u5 Cardinals

is a WIN with a loss and a PUSH with a win

2H WINS

o3.5 NYGiants

is a WIN with a WIN and LOSS with a loss

o9 wins Eagles

is a WIN with a WIN a PUSH with a loss

 
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Doctor Detroit said:
Tomorrow:

Arizona State/Duke UNDER 66 1.5u AUTOPLAY

South Carolina +3.5 1.5u AUTOPLAY

BC -2.5

Nebraska +7

Hopefully Derek comes by with a Cincy/Va Tech play.
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Tailing SC and Nebraska
 
This guys puts out a parlay card every year and then fades the lopsided ones.

10-2 ATS and 7-5 ATS respectively the last 2 years

Here are the most disparaging results from this years Cards:

209. South Alabama -3 (17-1). PLAY ON BOWLING GREEN +3

224. North Carolina -3 (26-3). PLAY ON RUTGERS +3

228. Cincinnati -3 (31-5). PLAY ON VA TECH +3

230. Arizona State -8. (41-4). PLAY ON DUKE +8

236. Southern Cal -7 (52-5). PLAY ON NEBRASKA +7

240. Oklahoma -3. (48-4). PLAY ON CLEMSON +3

242. Arkansas -6. (37-8). PLAY ON TEXAS +6

246. Georgia -7. (40-7). PLAY ON LOUISVILLE +7

250. TCU -3. (49-4). PLAY ON OLE MISS +3

256. Auburn -7. (37-12) I PLAY ON WISCONSIN +7

272. Washington -6 (27-6). PLAY ON OKLAHOMA STATE +6

 
ChainsawU said:
got_nugs said:
Saw does the almanac like the wiz/tics under tomorrow?
Click to expand...
Somebody, maybe quant dudes, liked the u203. Tell me a little more about the two teams and what stuck out to you to like the under.

Btw, I'm down for some 7PM NBA action. Plenty of time to watch the line, cover all the bases, and bet the right side of the total by the time tipoff rolls around.
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I did thorough research and by thorough I mean that I went to the Celtics game a few weeks back when they played the Wizards and both teams had trouble scoring. I'm a little like the wagering Stugotz...the last thing I saw was the most important thing i've ever seen...hence the question. You provide more perspective and since you got that cheater code I thought i'd ask. Celtics played a high scoring game yesterday vs the Nets and them Wiz 102 vs the Knicks on Christmas but both teams are top 5 in giving up points/game.

I cap NBA based on what I see instead of detailed statistical analysis. I donate to books. It's my thing. Your thing is winning. I prefer winning. Whatchoo got?

 
Raider Nation said:
It would be appreciated if you guys could post any whispers you might hear about Romo's playing time this week. I could really use him in a 2QB league championship game this week, but the only reason winning would matter to them is if DET & GB tie later in the day. I can't see them risking their studs for such an unlikely event. But all week, Garrett and Jerry have stuck with the "there are no unimportant games!" mantra. Who knows.

Still, I'd rather play a much lesser player like Bortles who I know will play 60 minutes over a guy who may or may not play for three series.
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They still get a bye if Seattle and Arizona loses without the tie. Both of those games are afternoon.

 
No idea what to expect in Pinstripe Bowl. Neither BC nor Penn State shows much offense. On one hand, I think BC running game is a LOT more reliable than Hackenburg, but you never know when Hackenburg might have his switch set to "Good". Does teh time to prepare favor Franklin?

If this were a regular season game, I'd be going BC. But throw in the time off and the pressure on PSU to win a bowl game, I'm leaning Penn State.

 
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