Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thanks, loser. I'm reading that Boise's best player is out.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
dino259
Footballguy
If it's Drmic you're speaking of, he's been out since December 6. Boise hasn't scored over 65 in conference and they are the better team. UNLV is among the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, but Boise is ranked 325 out of 351 ncaa teams in offensive rebounding.
Pretty much just an action play for me. I probably wouldn't trust it.
Pretty much just an action play for me. I probably wouldn't trust it.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Do the Colts have any chance to win Sunday? It's off the 7 now.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Wichita -19
I almost liked LSU tomorrow too but then I remembered they're a really stupid team and we don't bet on stupid teams.
Also I'm fascinated to see what the SDSU/Wyoming total is. It might be under 100.
I almost liked LSU tomorrow too but then I remembered they're a really stupid team and we don't bet on stupid teams.
Also I'm fascinated to see what the SDSU/Wyoming total is. It might be under 100.
modogg
Footballguy
I joined you guys on this play in live betting at under 140. It isn't college basketball season until an under gets screwed by a 19 point ot.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
good job here, I was too cheap to go for the -1.5hagmania said:
Billy Bats
Footballguy
I have a hard time laying 1.5 in hockey in general, I'd much rather play the 60min win line than laying the pucks.Eta: for comparison sake, I had +110 on Preds 60 min last night.
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regularguy
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
hagmania
Footballguy
numb@billy I hardly play -1.5 ever but had a good feeling about last night with Miller out. Plus, the Preds score in droves every time my gf is at the game, so we had this one in the bag.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Killer 3rd period, nice hit. I would add that play to a parlay once in awhile, but my site doesn't allow anything over +150 on a parlay. The #### is that ####??
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Limited but with nice wong numbers for those who think the 2 chalks can win by at least 1 or 2 points.
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
MCW over on these
15.5 points
13 r,a (bigger)
28.5 p,r,a (bigger)
15.5 points
13 r,a (bigger)
28.5 p,r,a (bigger)
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I'm on both the suggested SI plays
Playoff system
ATS record of teams against the top-two seeds, since 2003
Criteria ATS Record Units Won ROI * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records.
** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,170 ($100 x 11.70 units) following the system.
*** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment.
Opp seed 1-2 44-25 (63.8%) +17.03 units +24.7%
Opp seed 1-2, <50% bets 27-9 (75%) +16.56 units +46%
Opp seed 1-2, <50% bets, Total 44.5-plus 20-2 (90.9%) +17.27 units +78.4%
Sports Insights' strict contrarian philosophy advocates betting against the public, and taking unpopular viewpoints that contradict the mainstream media's storyline. For example: Buy on bad news; sell on good. We take the underdog when the favorite is supposedly "a lock." When the public zigs, we zag.
On any given Sunday, the worst NFL team can upset the best NFL team. Recent wild-card team success further illustrates that point. Still, once playoff season hits, the general public clings to its support of the top-two seeds in each conference.
Recreational or "square" bettors tend to overreact to recent results, so oddsmakers will shade their opening lines and force those bettors to take teams at inflated numbers based purely on perception. These are the opportunities that sharp bettors look to exploit.
Conference championship system matches
Green Bay Packers (plus-7) at Seattle Seahawks
Aaron Rodgers may be the runaway favorite to win 2014 NFL MVP, but clearly bettors must be scared off by his late-season calf injury. How else can you explain why just 48 percent of spread bets are taking Green Bay as a touchdown underdog?
One possible explanation is the recent performance of the defending Super Bowl champs. The Seahawks have been the best home team against the spread (ATS) over the past decade and have the top-ranked rushing offense, in addition to the top-ranked passing defense. Seattle has won 10 of its past 11 games, including seven straight.
The betting public is loath to take a hobbled Rodgers yet elated to ride the Seahawks' hot streak, making this the perfect buy-low chance for opportunistic bettors.
Seven is the second-most significant key number for NFL bettors, trailing only three. Many offshore sportsbooks are offering Green Bay plus-7.5. With that in mind, we suggest that bettors shop for the best line and take the Packers in the NFC Championship Game.
Indianapolis Colts (plus-7) at New England Patriots
In last weekend's matchup with the Ravens, Bill Belichick again demonstrated why he plays chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers. Whether employing a four-man offensive line or dialing up a wide receiver pass, his deft play-calling proves why he's the winningest playoff coach of all time.
In Andrew Luck's three career starts against the Patriots, the Colts have lost by the following scores: 42-20 (Nov. 16, 2014), 43-22 (Jan. 11, 2014) and 59-24 (Nov. 18, 2012). With that level of domination, it's amazing New England isn't an even larger favorite.
Indianapolis opened as a seven-point underdog and, at the time of publication, was receiving just 40 percent of spread bets. Despite that lopsided betting, the Colts had dropped from plus-7 to plus-6.5 at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. That reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money likes the road dog in this matchup.
Considering the knee injury to Patriots rookie center Bryan Stork and the early-season struggles of the offensive line, New England may be more vulnerable than bettors would care to believe. Much like the Green Bay-Seattle matchup, this game is the perfect buy-low, sell-high opportunity. We'll follow early sharp money and gladly take Indy plus-7 in the AFC Championship Game.
Playoff system
ATS record of teams against the top-two seeds, since 2003
Criteria ATS Record Units Won ROI * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records.
** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,170 ($100 x 11.70 units) following the system.
*** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment.
Opp seed 1-2 44-25 (63.8%) +17.03 units +24.7%
Opp seed 1-2, <50% bets 27-9 (75%) +16.56 units +46%
Opp seed 1-2, <50% bets, Total 44.5-plus 20-2 (90.9%) +17.27 units +78.4%
Why does this work?Sports Insights' strict contrarian philosophy advocates betting against the public, and taking unpopular viewpoints that contradict the mainstream media's storyline. For example: Buy on bad news; sell on good. We take the underdog when the favorite is supposedly "a lock." When the public zigs, we zag.
On any given Sunday, the worst NFL team can upset the best NFL team. Recent wild-card team success further illustrates that point. Still, once playoff season hits, the general public clings to its support of the top-two seeds in each conference.
Recreational or "square" bettors tend to overreact to recent results, so oddsmakers will shade their opening lines and force those bettors to take teams at inflated numbers based purely on perception. These are the opportunities that sharp bettors look to exploit.
Conference championship system matches
Green Bay Packers (plus-7) at Seattle Seahawks
Aaron Rodgers may be the runaway favorite to win 2014 NFL MVP, but clearly bettors must be scared off by his late-season calf injury. How else can you explain why just 48 percent of spread bets are taking Green Bay as a touchdown underdog?
One possible explanation is the recent performance of the defending Super Bowl champs. The Seahawks have been the best home team against the spread (ATS) over the past decade and have the top-ranked rushing offense, in addition to the top-ranked passing defense. Seattle has won 10 of its past 11 games, including seven straight.
The betting public is loath to take a hobbled Rodgers yet elated to ride the Seahawks' hot streak, making this the perfect buy-low chance for opportunistic bettors.
Seven is the second-most significant key number for NFL bettors, trailing only three. Many offshore sportsbooks are offering Green Bay plus-7.5. With that in mind, we suggest that bettors shop for the best line and take the Packers in the NFC Championship Game.
Indianapolis Colts (plus-7) at New England Patriots
In last weekend's matchup with the Ravens, Bill Belichick again demonstrated why he plays chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers. Whether employing a four-man offensive line or dialing up a wide receiver pass, his deft play-calling proves why he's the winningest playoff coach of all time.
In Andrew Luck's three career starts against the Patriots, the Colts have lost by the following scores: 42-20 (Nov. 16, 2014), 43-22 (Jan. 11, 2014) and 59-24 (Nov. 18, 2012). With that level of domination, it's amazing New England isn't an even larger favorite.
Indianapolis opened as a seven-point underdog and, at the time of publication, was receiving just 40 percent of spread bets. Despite that lopsided betting, the Colts had dropped from plus-7 to plus-6.5 at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. That reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money likes the road dog in this matchup.
Considering the knee injury to Patriots rookie center Bryan Stork and the early-season struggles of the offensive line, New England may be more vulnerable than bettors would care to believe. Much like the Green Bay-Seattle matchup, this game is the perfect buy-low, sell-high opportunity. We'll follow early sharp money and gladly take Indy plus-7 in the AFC Championship Game.
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I just don't see how the Pats don't win by double digits
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
I just can't imagine how Rodgers is going to be effective against that D, on the road, while being virtually stationary. I know that Lacy has a better Yards Per Carry average out of shotgun, which is what Rodgers was in for every snap last weekend, but without being to roll out at least occasionally, not to mention not being able to move around the pocket, I really like the SEA ML. I also think Sea covers, but 7+ could be too big a number. At least we have the rest of the week to debate this.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
I'm not expecting to see it, but I really hope they post a Rodgers rushing prop.
I think there is a good chance they will knock Rodgers out of the game. He was a statue last weekend and the Seattle pass rush is a LOT better than the Cowboys. Plus, home vs road differences and tight coverage on his primary WRs.
Just feels like a huge mismatch to me.
hagmania
Footballguy
I haven't bet anything yet, I've taken this thread's input to a good season of betting, I'd be remiss to stop now.
I punched SEA -6.5 and -7 early so I guess I can play something like that to lock in some profits and shoot for a middle.
the main thing for me is nobody knew how badly Rodgers was hurt prior to last week's game. Then we saw him completely unwilling to run or step into his throws all game. He's damaged goods. I guess the line already reflects that, but gllll if you have to count on Matt Flynn in the second half.
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
yeah, but after the way he looked, it should be much lower this week. anything under 5 feels like a strong play.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
no blitz vs him but he was 15-20 in 2nd half. Not sure why Dallas didnt blitz. He didnt do anything to aggravate it and supposedly better this week than where it was last week at this time
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hagmania
Footballguy
re: Rodgers
Granted, I don't know what you think of the guy, but Trent Dilfer was on the radio last night talking about Rodgers' injury. When asked if Dallas made a mistake by not blitzing him, Dilfer replied something along the lines of "They did the right thing by dropping 8. If I were a D coordinator I would want to make him move in the pocket looking for the open man... blitzing him makes his decisions a lot easier and he just has to worry about his reads."
Take that with a Trent Dilfer sized grain of salt.
Granted, I don't know what you think of the guy, but Trent Dilfer was on the radio last night talking about Rodgers' injury. When asked if Dallas made a mistake by not blitzing him, Dilfer replied something along the lines of "They did the right thing by dropping 8. If I were a D coordinator I would want to make him move in the pocket looking for the open man... blitzing him makes his decisions a lot easier and he just has to worry about his reads."
Take that with a Trent Dilfer sized grain of salt.
lumpy19
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
personally I think Dilfer is on the dumbest analysis guys out there from some of the things I have said. Guy was 15-20 in second half obviously whatever they did in that situation didnt work.re: Rodgers
Granted, I don't know what you think of the guy, but Trent Dilfer was on the radio last night talking about Rodgers' injury. When asked if Dallas made a mistake by not blitzing him, Dilfer replied something along the lines of "They did the right thing by dropping 8. If I were a D coordinator I would want to make him move in the pocket looking for the open man... blitzing him makes his decisions a lot easier and he just has to worry about his reads."
Take that with a Trent Dilfer sized grain of salt.
hagmania
Footballguy
I think blitzing him is more likely to knock him out, so I'd probably try to do that lol. But I just like to gamble, I'm not very good at actual sportsball type deals.personally I think Dilfer is on the dumbest analysis guys out there from some of the things I have said. Guy was 15-20 in second half obviously whatever they did in that situation didnt work.re: Rodgers
Granted, I don't know what you think of the guy, but Trent Dilfer was on the radio last night talking about Rodgers' injury. When asked if Dallas made a mistake by not blitzing him, Dilfer replied something along the lines of "They did the right thing by dropping 8. If I were a D coordinator I would want to make him move in the pocket looking for the open man... blitzing him makes his decisions a lot easier and he just has to worry about his reads."
Take that with a Trent Dilfer sized grain of salt.
The main problem Dallas had in the second half (IMO) was missed tackles. Even if they wanted to blitz him, who were they going to send? That defense didn't have a lot of options.
PFF graded them with 11 missed tackles on defense.
for comparison
GB: 5
NE: 2
BAL: 9
IND: 5
DEN: 6
SEA: 15
CAR: 16
PFF graded them with 11 missed tackles on defense.
for comparison
GB: 5
NE: 2
BAL: 9
IND: 5
DEN: 6
SEA: 15
CAR: 16
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Bovada is up. Grabbed these 3 first
Blount over 9.5 carries
Blount over 42.5 rushing
Herron over 4.5 catches
Blount over 9.5 carries
Blount over 42.5 rushing
Herron over 4.5 catches
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Had 16.5 myself.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=516869&p=17673289But by the way he looked I was thinking they wouldn't post anything.
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Anything look good on the ice tonight?
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Jumping on providence -3.5
