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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

modogg said:
i have to find the source, but i was reading an article or something that was discussing how Chung will have a bigger role in this game. I can't remember what it is off the top of my head so this is probably the most useless post i have had in a long time, but if i can find it i will provide a little more detail. i think it had to do with him being more involved with the game planning, and thus having more tackle opportunities then usual
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he will.

he plays in their base defense but sits in a lot of subpackages (nickel, dime I think) because he sucks in coverage. Seattle is not going to force New England to use their nickel much, so that will mean more playing time for Chung.

He's still not going to be an everydown player, and if New England gets up early, he might not see a ton of time.

He's lined at 5.5 tackles in the game.

I looked at his tackles and # of snaps played all year. He put up 94 tackles in 953 snaps for an average of .1 tackles per snap. If he maintained that average, he'd need 60+ snaps to get to 6 tackles in the game. When you factor in that the Patriots played a ton of games in front of stat crews that tended to inflate the stats though, I think you can probably downgrade him a bit. He did play 60+ snaps in 7 games this year. He finished with 6 or more tackles in all of those games, but he also averaged over 3 assists/game.

I think he probably winds up with 4 or 5 tackles here with a small chance for 6. That's my hope anyway.

 
In 48 Superbowls the coin toss has been heads 24 times and tails 24 times. Heads and tails match up so well against each other it's basically a toss up. But, I think we go into this Superbowl head strong and heads wins it this year. Give me some on the head.

 
got_nugs said:
Hey Chainsizzle, you tell that birdy in your ear to keep chirping!
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Sup. Going back to the 2012 season, Suns 0-6 ATS L6 as the home favorite when they have a game the next night. They play in Oakland tomorrow. That includes a game last season when the Bulls came in as 8-point dogs on a B2B and won SU. This morning I thought the 5.5 looked good, since 5 is the key number in the NBA. I think they are overdoing the line since the Bulls had that 2OT game yesterday and I could see the ESPN ML fave parlay getting shot down in that second leg in Phoenix. I'm taking the 7 with the Bulls since I don't see any injuries that developed between the 5.5 this morning and the 7 it's at right now.

Also found that the Celtics just got back from a long road trip and are 0-5 SU and ATS returning home from a different time zone this season. I put a little something together with Houston and Chicago for some action-junkie action.

 
tonydead said:
In 48 Superbowls the coin toss has been heads 24 times and tails 24 times. Heads and tails match up so well against each other it's basically a toss up. But, I think we go into this Superbowl head strong and heads wins it this year. Give me some on the head.
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:bow:

 
Peyton Marino said:
TheGooRoo said:
Peyton Marino said:
Peyton Marino said:
Lebron expected to play tonight. Kyrie u26 -105 on Bovada.
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also think Motiejunas o12 is a decent play with Howard out and against the Celtics weak frontcourt. Motiejunas without Howard this season.
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Gotta be a little cautious with Jones back.
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Good point. Didn't account for that.
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Great call though. I was going to hammer it last game but pulled back when I saw Jones return. If his lines bump up in the 14.5 range, I'll be pounding the unders on the right match-ups.

 
Celtics 29th NBA in 3Q points allowed. I want to say the Rockets get 30.

Over 3Q 52 -120

if it wins will roll it into the FG under live during the 3Q/4Q commercial break

 
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from another board

I am writing this to urge prop betters to keep a close eye on the inactive list for the following reason:

Those of us who watch the Patriots play every week know that when the Pats go run-heavy -- as they did with Indy -- they activate Cameron Fleming to serve as an extra lineman on heavy sets. The thing is: if they don't plan on using that set, his roster spot goes to someone else (maybe an extra WR like Brian Tyms, or a special teamer like Chris White).

So before placing prop bets on several key rushing props, look at the inactive list.

If Fleming is active (I suspect he will, but only the Pats know for sure)

Blount Over 14.5 carries
Blount OVER rushing yards (forget the number off the top of head)

Edelman OVER .5 carries (they almost always run a reverse once defense starts biting toward the Fleming side of the line -- 11/16 games this year Edelman has a carry, and it is often out of this heavy set.)

Hooman -- over 6.5 yards receiving -- hooman will get a lot of snaps if they run heavy formation a lot.

Also, know that having these extra lineman was a key part of Belichick's inielgible, eligible stuff -- So I do suspect Fleming will be active.

But, if Fleming is inactive...

I would bet the UNDER on those Blount/Edelman rushing/carries stuff.
Plus, I will strongly consider betting :
OVER for Vereen carries
OVER Vereen yards
Over Vereen catches

as without the heavy set, he will get twice as many snaps, and thus, likely more yards, carries and catches.

I really think this provides an edge to close observers of the Pats -- and hopefully one the books are not too keen on -- that is the beauty of props (and hence the harsh maximum bet restrictions.

Pat's fans -- am I right here? Am I missing anything?

 
ChainsawU said:
Celtics 29th NBA in 3Q points allowed. I want to say the Rockets get 30.

Over 3Q 52 -120

if it wins will roll it into the FG under live during the 3Q/4Q commercial break
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We should start a list of all the teams we can't bet on. Rockets would be 1st on my list after that 2h last year. 9 points in the 3rd tonight? Dafuq?

 
I threw a $20 into the Bovada casino where you get the 100% bonus with a 25x rollover....started with $40, just cashed out $553. #propsfund

 
Has anyone seen Whiteside props yet? The guy is putting up sick numbers considering the perspective of where he was at the beginning of the season.

 
Saw, I like the Bulls plus the points tonight. I'm nuts right? Suns are explosive and the Bulls have played a couple of OTs in a row.

 
got_nugs said:
Saw, I like the Bulls plus the points tonight. I'm nuts right? Suns are explosive and the Bulls have played a couple of OTs in a row.
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Sweet dude. Me too. Earlier I left out that the Bulls are 3-0 SU and ATS L3 as the road dog on zero rest this season.

 
ChainsawU said:
got_nugs said:
Hey Chainsizzle, you tell that birdy in your ear to keep chirping!
Click to expand...
Sup. Going back to the 2012 season, Suns 0-6 ATS L6 as the home favorite when they have a game the next night. They play in Oakland tomorrow. That includes a game last season when the Bulls came in as 8-point dogs on a B2B and won SU. This morning I thought the 5.5 looked good, since 5 is the key number in the NBA. I think they are overdoing the line since the Bulls had that 2OT game yesterday and I could see the ESPN ML fave parlay getting shot down in that second leg in Phoenix. I'm taking the 7 with the Bulls since I don't see any injuries that developed between the 5.5 this morning and the 7 it's at right now.

Also found that the Celtics just got back from a long road trip and are 0-5 SU and ATS returning home from a different time zone this season. I put a little something together with Houston and Chicago for some action-junkie action.
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haha just saw this man. Ok then we're on the Bulls together brohemian!

 
Raider Nation said:
ChainsawU said:
modogg said:
Angry Beavers said:
Thanks. It happens. Just needed a place to vent.
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:goodposting: this is the best place to do it. i tried once, a few years ago, to explain to my wife why i was pissed about a CBB game. Learned quick only people who care/understand are others who gamble quite a bit
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:heart: you guys
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:yes:

It's also why we ALL hate Mike's girlfriend in Rounders.

"So instead of coming home, you were out all night playing cards with some judge???"

Yes. I WAS OUT ALL NIGHT PLAYING CARDS INSTEAD OF COMING HOME TO YOUR DUMB ASS!!!
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A couple times this week I had a mental picture about someone asking if you guys bet any money on the Super Bowl yet and asking what team you are rooting for. I could totally see someone in here with the 30-40 prop bets, but not having played a side yet trying to answer that question.

 
Quick question. I'm giving away the appliances that were in the place when I bought it. They are in great shape but they are ugly. My buddy is coming for the slide-in gas range tomorrow. I already unplugged it, slid it away from the wall and turned the valve off behind the range to stop the gas flow. I'll also shut off the main gas line at the furnace when we unhook the flex hose with a wrench, but at some point I'm gonna need to turn the main gas back on so the crib has heat. Am I gonna be blown to bits if I light a match or something? Even though the valve in the kitchen is at that 90 degree (OFF) angle, I'm concerned about a leak since it won't be attached to anything. The new range isn't due to come until next week. Help?

 
Will the team win the coin toss win the game? YES -115

Pats and Seahawks are a combined 18-2 when they win the coin toss, a combined 10-6 when they lose. Both teams love to defer. Also, the coin toss winner has won 4 of the last 5 super bowls.

 
Raider Nation said:
Quick question. I'm giving away the appliances that were in the place when I bought it. They are in great shape but they are ugly. My buddy is coming for the slide-in gas range tomorrow. I already unplugged it, slid it away from the wall and turned the valve off behind the range to stop the gas flow. I'll also shut off the main gas line at the furnace when we unhook the flex hose with a wrench, but at some point I'm gonna need to turn the main gas back on so the crib has heat. Am I gonna be blown to bits if I light a match or something? Even though the valve in the kitchen is at that 90 degree (OFF) angle, I'm concerned about a leak since it won't be attached to anything. The new range isn't due to come until next week. Help?
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Speaking of dangerous gas leak, how's the new diet coming along?

 
Haven't bet since nCAA Title. Making one bet, can't defise the unit amount... Strictly on hate for the Seahawks.

Pats

Although if an atomic bomb lands in AZ on Sunday and there are no refunds, I'll take the loss.

 
Shane Vereen OVER 3.5 Receptions +125

Shane Vereen OVER 27.5 yards receiving -115

Marshawn Lynch OVER 19 rushing attempts -115

Patriots first scoring play: Field Goal +125

Seahawks first scoring play: Touchdown Run +250

First penalty: offsides/encroachment/Neutral zone +250

Those are my props. I'm sure I'll tail some others posted here, but I liked all of those.

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
Raider Nation said:
I was thinking of you guys in here the other day and had to laugh while listening to Mike Francesa, who as most of you know, is wrong about everything.

A guy calls up asking Mike about Super Bowl props. He goes on this rant about how props are sucker bets and you cannot beat them. :lmao: Yeah, pretty close. Props are the ONLY thing you can beat. It must actually be quite soothing to go through life with an empty head.
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I never get tired of him.
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So, of course, after screaming on Wednesday about how props bets are sucker bets, he spends an entire segment today giving us his Super Bowl prop bets. These come after five seconds of exhaustive research. He starts us off with the "Supabow MVP awds." This entire clip is pure gold.

[thinks to himself out loud] ... "Edelman, 6 and a half..... Edelman, 6 and a half...... YES!"

Yes WHAT?

 
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