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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

regularguy said:
lumpy19 said:
regularguy said:
[icon] said:
Cleavage grade at sports book is horse #### :lol: cost me a break even ish night. All in all down a couple units. I'll take it.
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It turns out Sportsbetting/BetOnline payed out both sides of the cleavage bet.
Dave Mason ‏@DaveMasonBOL 12h12 hours ago

I say DEFINITELY CLEAVAGE. Boss in Risk Management says NO CLEAVAGE. We paying out both sides as winners. To avoid Cleavage Gate both win.
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WTF is icon talking about then?

More than you ever wanted to know about cleavage(NSFW) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleavage_%28breasts%29
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Different grading by different sites. Sportsbook.ag graded it as cleavage. My quote was about BOL/sportsbetting.ag.
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They grade based on handle, I'd assume. Who really knows for sure? It's the business we're dealing in here.

 
SB taking their time grading the crotch grab bet.

Expecting a push here, I didn't see or hear that Lynch or Perry did it the entire game.

 
Was there a bet that Perry would grab her crotch? She was doing something down there when she was wearing the trash bag that looked like a feigned crotch grab, but didn't make sense in the context of what she was wearing. I'm out of the loop as to why she was doing/would do that though. Stuck out to me as being kind of weird though.

 
ChainsawU said:
Was there a bet that Perry would grab her crotch? She was doing something down there when she was wearing the trash bag that looked like a feigned crotch grab, but didn't make sense in the context of what she was wearing. I'm out of the loop as to why she was doing/would do that though. Stuck out to me as being kind of weird though.
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Not that I saw, the only one that I played was "Who would have more crotch grabs?" Perry -130 or Lynch -110 and I played Lynch. Still Pending for grading purposes, which has me nervous.

 
So that Baldwin celebration that they never showed why he was flagged was because he pretended to take a crap?

Brilliant move to do that in the Super Bowl...

 
swirvenirvin said:
Dan Lambskin said:
The Ref said:
Somehow I had a ton of money bet last night, it felt like I lost all of them and somehow I stayed under the envelope at RB.
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I had over 2K out there and ended up down $40. I'll take itAnd of course RB was the only book I took an overall loss at :lol:
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same on only book.. stupid amedola
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:goodposting: Same here on RB. I at least got in the black at Goobook to help offset the RB package. I had over 60 units in play and expect to finish at basically breakeven (pending over bets on viewers and Nevada handle).

In other news, I had a book cancel one of my Luke Wilson overs. :lmao: It's not a big book so hopefully nobody had the under.

 
lumpy19 said:
ArbyMelt said:
TheGooRoo said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Carroll provided some context around that last play, although I don't know if it really washes. They had extra receivers against NE's goal-line group, they had 3 downs, 1 TO. So they were going to do some combo of 2 runs and 1 pass with the remaining 3 downs.

It makes sense that you have some combo of 2 runs and a pass for the 3 remaining downs, but THAT throw does seem problematic. It's going to get HotTaked to death because the worst possible outcome occurred, but the chances of a pick there ARE pretty nil.

It may have made sense to run inside, TO if it doesn't get in, and then run a Wilson bootleg on 3rd down with a releasing TE. If the TE gets open, you have a pretty easy, low-risk throw. If it's not there, you have one of the fastest QBs in the league who can probably jog to the pylon. If someone does get a bead on him, maybe he gets knocked out and the clock stops. Even if he doesn't, you still have time to reset and try to plunge it in on 4th and short.

It's a bad call throwing into a tight spot, but I think the OMGZ YOU JUST HAND IT TO LYNCH!!11!!! analysis is a bit too simplistic.
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That whole last drive was weird to me. When Seattle had the ball with 2:02 I was thinking milk the clock, spread the D out, mix in a couple inside runs, maybe a Wilson run. 2:02 downfield to Lynch, 1:55 incomplete deep to Kearse, 1:50 incomplete deep to Matthews, 1:41 short pass, 1:14 deep to Kearse. It was obvious Wilson wanted to push it down and score FAST, with 1:00+ left. Even if they scored on that final play with :26, I'm pretty sure Brady could/would have gotten into fg range. Give him over 1:00 and Brady probably pushes it in for the 35-31 win. Good game nonetheless, congrats Pats guys!
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I still don't understand why Belichek didn't burn a timeout after the Lynch run to the 1. I believe SEA had one timeout left, so even if NE stops SEA, SEA can't get the ball back. Why not give you team another 30 seconds if SEA scores?
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Tough decision. He has to immediately call it IMO, once he lets a few ticks go off, forget it, roll with the def.

End of the night I added 10% to my bankroll which is fantastic but oh so close to adding 20-30% if seattle wins. Hell even if seattle pulls off a safety after the INT I'm covering my 2H bet of Sea +2.5 and full game bet of Seattle +3(-130)

Awesome game.
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Man, but they're at the 1 with three downs. I'm against letting them walk in, but at the same time it's unreasonable to expect holding a power-running team three times. Then again he's Belichick.

 
PFF handed out tackles this way:

McDaniel - 3 (on 29 snaps)
Wagner - 13 (on 76 snaps)
Wright - 12 (on 76 snaps)
Chancellor - 7 (on 76 snaps)
Thomas - 8 (on 76 snaps)

Wilfork - 2 (on 40 snaps)
Ninkovich - 4 (on 54 snaps)
Hightower - 4 (on 54 snaps)
Collins - 9 (on 54 snaps)
Chung - 2 (on 41 snaps)
McCourty - 4 (on 53 snaps)

based on that, Collins could have gone over but Ninkovich and McCourty would have stayed under.

biggest thing I didn't expect was the Seattle defense to be on the field that much in the game.

the crew trends held up pretty well.

SEA defense had 57 tackle opportunities in the game and got 61 total tackles (1.07 tackles/opp). Just sucked that they basically all went to the top-4 guys (Wagner, Wright, Chancellor, Thomas) instead of being spread out more. I think unders here were 2-4.

NE defense had 44 tackle opportunities in the game and got 47 total tackles (1.07 tackles/opp). They were more spread out, but Ninkovich and McCourty wound up going over their numbers and everyone else was under (6-2 if you played them all).

There were 22 assists given out in the game. It was on the higher end for Arizona but not really an outlier.

Overall, IDP tackle unders went 8-6 in the game. Rough night to end the year. Sorry for those who tailed.

 
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I didn't play any tackle props yesterday, but I did throughout the year on occasion. Nice work on that Rud, appreciate all those posts and info.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
lumpy19 said:
ArbyMelt said:
TheGooRoo said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Carroll provided some context around that last play, although I don't know if it really washes. They had extra receivers against NE's goal-line group, they had 3 downs, 1 TO. So they were going to do some combo of 2 runs and 1 pass with the remaining 3 downs.

It makes sense that you have some combo of 2 runs and a pass for the 3 remaining downs, but THAT throw does seem problematic. It's going to get HotTaked to death because the worst possible outcome occurred, but the chances of a pick there ARE pretty nil.

It may have made sense to run inside, TO if it doesn't get in, and then run a Wilson bootleg on 3rd down with a releasing TE. If the TE gets open, you have a pretty easy, low-risk throw. If it's not there, you have one of the fastest QBs in the league who can probably jog to the pylon. If someone does get a bead on him, maybe he gets knocked out and the clock stops. Even if he doesn't, you still have time to reset and try to plunge it in on 4th and short.

It's a bad call throwing into a tight spot, but I think the OMGZ YOU JUST HAND IT TO LYNCH!!11!!! analysis is a bit too simplistic.
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That whole last drive was weird to me. When Seattle had the ball with 2:02 I was thinking milk the clock, spread the D out, mix in a couple inside runs, maybe a Wilson run. 2:02 downfield to Lynch, 1:55 incomplete deep to Kearse, 1:50 incomplete deep to Matthews, 1:41 short pass, 1:14 deep to Kearse. It was obvious Wilson wanted to push it down and score FAST, with 1:00+ left. Even if they scored on that final play with :26, I'm pretty sure Brady could/would have gotten into fg range. Give him over 1:00 and Brady probably pushes it in for the 35-31 win. Good game nonetheless, congrats Pats guys!
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I still don't understand why Belichek didn't burn a timeout after the Lynch run to the 1. I believe SEA had one timeout left, so even if NE stops SEA, SEA can't get the ball back. Why not give you team another 30 seconds if SEA scores?
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Tough decision. He has to immediately call it IMO, once he lets a few ticks go off, forget it, roll with the def.

End of the night I added 10% to my bankroll which is fantastic but oh so close to adding 20-30% if seattle wins. Hell even if seattle pulls off a safety after the INT I'm covering my 2H bet of Sea +2.5 and full game bet of Seattle +3(-130)

Awesome game.
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Man, but they're at the 1 with three downs. I'm against letting them walk in, but at the same time it's unreasonable to expect holding a power-running team three times. Then again he's Belichick.
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I don't have the data to back it up but I remember hearing more than once that Seattle struggled in short yardage situations this year. No idea if it's true and I'm too lazy to look it up.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
PFF handed out tackles this way:

McDaniel - 3 (on 29 snaps)

Wagner - 13 (on 76 snaps)

Wright - 12 (on 76 snaps)

Chancellor - 7 (on 76 snaps)

Thomas - 8 (on 76 snaps)

Wilfork - 2 (on 40 snaps)

Ninkovich - 4 (on 54 snaps)

Hightower - 4 (on 54 snaps)

Collins - 9 (on 54 snaps)

Chung - 2 (on 41 snaps)

McCourty - 4 (on 53 snaps)

based on that, Collins could have gone over but Ninkovich and McCourty would have stayed under.

biggest thing I didn't expect was the Seattle defense to be on the field that much in the game.

the crew trends held up pretty well.

SEA defense had 57 tackle opportunities in the game and got 61 total tackles (1.07 tackles/opp). Just sucked that they basically all went to the top-4 guys (Wagner, Wright, Chancellor, Thomas) instead of being spread out more. I think unders here were 2-4.

NE defense had 44 tackle opportunities in the game and got 47 total tackles (1.07 tackles/opp). They were more spread out, but Ninkovich and McCourty wound up going over their numbers and everyone else was under (6-2 if you played them all).

There were 22 assists given out in the game. It was on the higher end for Arizona but not really an outlier.

Overall, IDP tackle unders went 8-6 in the game. Rough night to end the year. Sorry for those who tailed.
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Yep,

Biggest reason the SEA IDP props crapped the bed was the SEA O being unable to move the ball most of the 1st H

We move on!

 
lumpy19 said:
Good Posting Judge said:
lumpy19 said:
ArbyMelt said:
TheGooRoo said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Carroll provided some context around that last play, although I don't know if it really washes. They had extra receivers against NE's goal-line group, they had 3 downs, 1 TO. So they were going to do some combo of 2 runs and 1 pass with the remaining 3 downs.

It makes sense that you have some combo of 2 runs and a pass for the 3 remaining downs, but THAT throw does seem problematic. It's going to get HotTaked to death because the worst possible outcome occurred, but the chances of a pick there ARE pretty nil.

It may have made sense to run inside, TO if it doesn't get in, and then run a Wilson bootleg on 3rd down with a releasing TE. If the TE gets open, you have a pretty easy, low-risk throw. If it's not there, you have one of the fastest QBs in the league who can probably jog to the pylon. If someone does get a bead on him, maybe he gets knocked out and the clock stops. Even if he doesn't, you still have time to reset and try to plunge it in on 4th and short.

It's a bad call throwing into a tight spot, but I think the OMGZ YOU JUST HAND IT TO LYNCH!!11!!! analysis is a bit too simplistic.
Click to expand...
That whole last drive was weird to me. When Seattle had the ball with 2:02 I was thinking milk the clock, spread the D out, mix in a couple inside runs, maybe a Wilson run. 2:02 downfield to Lynch, 1:55 incomplete deep to Kearse, 1:50 incomplete deep to Matthews, 1:41 short pass, 1:14 deep to Kearse. It was obvious Wilson wanted to push it down and score FAST, with 1:00+ left. Even if they scored on that final play with :26, I'm pretty sure Brady could/would have gotten into fg range. Give him over 1:00 and Brady probably pushes it in for the 35-31 win. Good game nonetheless, congrats Pats guys!
Click to expand...
I still don't understand why Belichek didn't burn a timeout after the Lynch run to the 1. I believe SEA had one timeout left, so even if NE stops SEA, SEA can't get the ball back. Why not give you team another 30 seconds if SEA scores?
Click to expand...
Tough decision. He has to immediately call it IMO, once he lets a few ticks go off, forget it, roll with the def.

End of the night I added 10% to my bankroll which is fantastic but oh so close to adding 20-30% if seattle wins. Hell even if seattle pulls off a safety after the INT I'm covering my 2H bet of Sea +2.5 and full game bet of Seattle +3(-130)

Awesome game.
Click to expand...
Man, but they're at the 1 with three downs. I'm against letting them walk in, but at the same time it's unreasonable to expect holding a power-running team three times. Then again he's Belichick.
Click to expand...
I don't have the data to back it up but I remember hearing more than once that Seattle struggled in short yardage situations this year. No idea if it's true and I'm too lazy to look it up.
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read lynch had 5 carries from the 1 this year.

negative on 2

zero yards on 2

Td on 1

 
Pretty small sample though, and NE's run defense in short-yardage situations hasn't been great.

The tackle that Hightower had to stop Lynch at the 1 was absolutely nuts, and it was only the third-most nuts thing in like a two-minute span.

 
I will probably lay low until tourney time

Although Kentucky Derby prep season is underway so there's always horse racing to blow my money on

 
I'm also perplexed by NE defense on the last play of the first half. Sea was on the 12 yard ilne with 6 sec left. If I'm NE, I play tight bump and run coverage and just grab the guy and throw him on the ground. Sure, you get the 5 yard penalty but time runs off the clock and SEA has to kick the FG on the next play. Instead they give the tall WR about 10 yards cushion and they throw it up and he catches it. NE called a timeout before the play. I thought for sure they'd do it.

Teams do similar stuff when taking an intentional safety, all the lineman just hold their man to get as much time off the clock as possible. Its a safety either way.

 
ArbyMelt said:
I'm also perplexed by NE defense on the last play of the first half. Sea was on the 12 yard ilne with 6 sec left. If I'm NE, I play tight bump and run coverage and just grab the guy and throw him on the ground. Sure, you get the 5 yard penalty but time runs off the clock and SEA has to kick the FG on the next play. Instead they give the tall WR about 10 yards cushion and they throw it up and he catches it. NE called a timeout before the play. I thought for sure they'd do it.

Teams do similar stuff when taking an intentional safety, all the lineman just hold their man to get as much time off the clock as possible. Its a safety either way.
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Was thinking the same thing. I would have sworn the DB's were told to just tackle a guy if need be.

 
did they change any stats? I feel like Russell Wilson rush yards -27.5 vs Vereen +27.5 was graded a winner last night but now it's a loser. Gamebook shows Wilson with 39 and Vereen with 13 so it was very close.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
did they change any stats? I feel like Russell Wilson rush yards -27.5 vs Vereen +27.5 was graded a winner last night but now it's a loser. Gamebook shows Wilson with 39 and Vereen with 13 so it was very close.
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was it bovada? They had wilson at 32 rushing for the 2nd half yesterday and graded that wrong, but then fixed it to 15 an hour later.

 
gmbacm said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
did they change any stats? I feel like Russell Wilson rush yards -27.5 vs Vereen +27.5 was graded a winner last night but now it's a loser. Gamebook shows Wilson with 39 and Vereen with 13 so it was very close.
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was it bovada? They had wilson at 32 rushing for the 2nd half yesterday and graded that wrong, but then fixed it to 15 an hour later.
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this was sportsbetting.ag

I guess if the stats didn't change, maybe they just graded it wrong initially and fixed it later, but I wasn't sure.

I know Lumpy went big on it. Don't remember what exact line he got though.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
gmbacm said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
did they change any stats? I feel like Russell Wilson rush yards -27.5 vs Vereen +27.5 was graded a winner last night but now it's a loser. Gamebook shows Wilson with 39 and Vereen with 13 so it was very close.
Click to expand...
was it bovada? They had wilson at 32 rushing for the 2nd half yesterday and graded that wrong, but then fixed it to 15 an hour later.
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this was sportsbetting.agI guess if the stats didn't change, maybe they just graded it wrong initially and fixed it later, but I wasn't sure.

I know Lumpy went big on it. Don't remember what exact line he got though.
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I played it at 17.5.....was a winner

 
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