FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (13 Viewers)

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Friday's Daily Sox Bet

Going out on a limb here... but I think Boston opens it up a bit tonight:

BOS -1.5 +110 - 1u

Sox Betting Record 6-2 : +4.8 units

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Bonus plays:

CHI/COL OVER 8.5 (-120) - 1u (tailing a buddy who's 3-0 on the week)

TEX/NYY OVER 9.5 (just moved) - 1u (two mashers playing in a whiffleball park - I think the Yanks get to Harrison)

 

[PatsFanCT]

NBA Playoff series lines are up...

Going pretty big on Portland +185. Dallas has played crappy basketball the past month and has struggled against teams above 500. Portland has split the series as it is and has been playing great ball. Getting them at almost double the amount is a great value pick. Not to mention fading the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs, not the dumbest move around.

Bulls at an insane -3000, Heat at -2000 and Lakers at -2000 to win their series are way too much juice to actually bet on. Times like those, wish I had 80K lying around. Portland vs Dallas is the only series bet I actually like. Hawks at +415 is good value but I still think they'll lose the series so it's throwing money away.

Even if you did it'd be tough to get that kind of money down. Parlay the big faves together

I just tried this for s&g's, and a $100 bet will pay you $4.55.

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

NBA Playoff series lines are up...

Going pretty big on Portland +185. Dallas has played crappy basketball the past month and has struggled against teams above 500. Portland has split the series as it is and has been playing great ball. Getting them at almost double the amount is a great value pick. Not to mention fading the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs, not the dumbest move around.

Bulls at an insane -3000, Heat at -2000 and Lakers at -2000 to win their series are way too much juice to actually bet on. Times like those, wish I had 80K lying around. Portland vs Dallas is the only series bet I actually like. Hawks at +415 is good value but I still think they'll lose the series so it's throwing money away.

Even if you did it'd be tough to get that kind of money down. Parlay the big faves together

I just tried this for s&g's, and a $100 bet will pay you $4.55.

Damn. Oh well, sticking with the Blazers in that case. Feel like I got some decent value on it as it is because when I bet the series it was +185 and it already has dropped to +170

 

[Man In The Box]

Every Mets game has gone over this year, with the exception of 1 push. Their rotation is awful. Their bullpen is even worse. I'm going to keep betting overs in their games until proven otherwise.

NYM/ATL over 8 -110 for 1.5 units

 

[BRONG]

Every Mets game has gone over this year, with the exception of 1 push. Their rotation is awful. Their bullpen is even worse. I'm going to keep betting overs in their games until proven otherwise.NYM/ATL over 8 -110 for 1.5 units

Broadcasters in the Mets game yesterday were talking about the disparity in night and day games these days. They were basically saying how baseball is putting out a ####ty product during daytime. They even went so far as to talk about how the players weren't using drugs as much, like amphetamines, or at least weren't using them like they did back in the day. Stuff like that. Ron Darling was one of the guys talking about this. And how players were sloppy or sleep-walking. Anyway, that was the gist of it. This of course, was while the Mets made error after error, letting the Rox explode one inning, haha.They didn't go into the numbers but they were referring to them so it was factually based.

 

[modogg]

Where's mo?

Go Phillies!! Hell, Go Sixers!!

It was just one of those games, i thought the Flyers outplayed them but Miller was standing on his head making saves. Could be an ugly series if the Flyers can't get to him next game, and ugly for the account balances as well with a few of the late night Flyers bets i put in to win the East

 

[zander_s]

Yeah I had the under salami also (can't believe Hilton doesn't take that bet) and it came in by 8 goals. Tomorrow the margin for error is gonna be a little tighter (15.5) but I'd still probably play that. Not sure if I'll get back before tomorrow night but all my prime plays were tonight. I like the under in the Flyers game and probably Sharks puckline. Going to the blackjack tables, glllll tomorrow all.

That made for a nice little parlay!! Thank you again sir!

I hope you took the ML and not the puckline. I actually didn't bet that because I had Sharks ML in the third leg of a parlay and didn't want to push it. Tomorrow: Rangers +150 and the Salami U 21

gllllllll

Yes, ML. Tailing again today! Keep 'em coming DD!

 

[Cawbird]

Going with the parlay that Vancouver and Nashville BOTH go up 2-0 in their series tonight. The Hawks woke up after the 1st period on Wednesday, but Vancouver is too deep. I think that Anaheim can't figure out how to get around Nashville's trap game and will be down 2-0 after tonight. -180 and +130 isn't too bad.

 

[bmj87]

1u wash +111

1u arizona -107

Ytd. 12-4 +9.46u

 

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Anyone worried the poker seizure will affect sportsbooks as well? I've put in a request to cash out 80% of my roll to be safe... not sure why the feds wouldn't be able to do the same thing to a major online book or two... no?

 

[Angry Beavers]

Icon- I agree.. better safe than sorry.

 

[Raider Nation]

Anyone worried the poker seizure will affect sportsbooks as well? I've put in a request to cash out 80% of my roll to be safe... not sure why the feds wouldn't be able to do the same thing to a major online book or two... no?

If the FBI is successful at taking down these businesses, analyzing the player data in order to levy IRS fines on Americans who dared to play a bit of online poker can’t be far behind.

 

[Raider Nation]

First time in history a 2-10 team is a -220 favorite???

I'm on the Bruins at the new series price of -120. They just need to wake up.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

1-2 tonight, added Canucks/Hawks over late and was traveling so couldn't get here.

Tomorrow:

Sharks/Kings over 5 (-120)-I think these games should be 5.5 as the Sharks can have periods they score at will. I think even if you like the Kings this is at worst a push.

I like the Boston and Flyers MLs but both are really expensive so I will probably parlay those. Detroit is also too expensive and I'm off that game so I can just watch my team. I wish I had a strong feeling on the total there, but I don't.

 

[bmj87]

1u Pitt +140

YTD 13-5 +9.50u

 

[zander_s]

1u Pitt +140YTD 13-5 +9.50u

I'm in!

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

I guess this as good of a place to ask as any other, but how legitimate of a chance do you guys think it will be for the Justice Department to go after the Offshore sportsbooks? I asked one of the livechat representatives at BookMaker and she gave me an overly optimistic answer (which i expected) but they must be scared as hell about all of this.

 

[TheGooRoo]

Collage Bases

Ucla Bruins -140

 

[sts911911]

I guess this as good of a place to ask as any other, but how legitimate of a chance do you guys think it will be for the Justice Department to go after the Offshore sportsbooks? I asked one of the livechat representatives at BookMaker and she gave me an overly optimistic answer (which i expected) but they must be scared as hell about all of this.

I'm scared as hell about all of this as well... I'll be pulling a huge chunk of my bankroll from my current betting site tonight. What are others thinking?

 

[lumpy19]

I guess this as good of a place to ask as any other, but how legitimate of a chance do you guys think it will be for the Justice Department to go after the Offshore sportsbooks? I asked one of the livechat representatives at BookMaker and she gave me an overly optimistic answer (which i expected) but they must be scared as hell about all of this.

Based on what I've read I'm not pulling my money out of the sports sites. The poker sites were breaking the UIGEA by processing payments in the US, sports sites don't do that. When I get bankwires or checks from sports sites they're always drawn on a bank from a foreign country, not much the US can do about that. In addition to that, the largest poker sites were working together and funneling all the payments thru a few small banks, the sports sites are smaller operations and less likely to be working together IMO. There's always a chance that something could happen, if you can't afford to lose what you have offshore then i'd definitely get paid.

 

[lumpy19]

1u Pitt +140YTD 13-5 +9.50u

Didn't have time to post yesterday when I saw this....I think you stated that you're handicapping is 95% numbers based so it wouldn't matter but Pitt is one of the worst road teams in MLB. I'm not sure they won back-to-back road games all last season(they were coming off a road win fri night)2010 40-41 H 17-64 A2009 40-41 H 22-58 A2008 39-42 H 28-53 AThey're almost bad enough you could blindly bet against them on the road and on them at home at any + number. Either way thanks for posting and keep up the good work, didn't miss a beat from NCAAB to MLB.

 

[bmj87]

1u Florida +183

1u Chi Cubs +112

1u Seattle +111

YTD 13-6 +8.50u

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Canucks/B'Hawks Over 5

 

[hooter311]

The books aren't going anywhere, for now.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Tough push on that game today, so many chances for that sixth goal.

Tomorrow I like the Bruins, Flyers and the over Salami. glllll

 

[modogg]

Tough push on that game today, so many chances for that sixth goal.Tomorrow I like the Bruins, Flyers and the over Salami. glllll

I think i'll join you with the salami and the Flyers, but it may be a little too ballsy for me to take the B's. They still look shell-shocked from their loss to the Flyers last playoff series, you have to think they put it all on the line tomorrow because they know have to, but i just have a hard time thinking they can do anything

 

[Raider Nation]

Bulls by 30 tonight. I don't see how the Pacers overcome that devastating loss in game 1.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Bulls by 30 tonight. I don't see how the Pacers overcome that devastating loss in game 1.

Hmmm, I was kinda leaning that way myself. Bulls by 22 or more is +500...

 

[lumpy19]

Just looking through my spreadsheet trying to figure out why I can no longer win.....some interesting numbers(interesting to me at least)

GooRoo introduced props to the FBG wagering thread in late 2008(that i know of). I joined the party hardcore in Mar 2009. From Mar 2009 to Sept 2010 not a single losing month. In the beginning all I bet was props, burned out all my options there so the last months of that streak were all sides/totals etc.

Oct 2010 my first losing month in 20 months....from oct 2010 to current day break even. 7 months of busting my ### to break even. I would say at least 6000(~210 days x ~30bets/day) bets during that period. Considering how strong NFL teasers were in december it's been a pretty ugly 2011. This "hobby" is a complete and total mind F_____

OK back at it, just wanted to get that off my chest. It's a crap load of work to win at this hobby.

 

[TheWick]

Lump - you broke even when including teasers?

 

[optionmaven]

Just looking through my spreadsheet trying to figure out why I can no longer win.....some interesting numbers(interesting to me at least)GooRoo introduced props to the FBG wagering thread in late 2008(that i know of). I joined the party hardcore in Mar 2009. From Mar 2009 to Sept 2010 not a single losing month. In the beginning all I bet was props, burned out all my options there so the last months of that streak were all sides/totals etc.Oct 2010 my first losing month in 20 months....from oct 2010 to current day break even. 7 months of busting my ### to break even. I would say at least 6000(~210 days x ~30bets/day) bets during that period. Considering how strong NFL teasers were in december it's been a pretty ugly 2011. This "hobby" is a complete and total mind F_____OK back at it, just wanted to get that off my chest. It's a crap load of work to win at this hobby.

The stock market can do the same things to you. Bust your nut looking for an edge, study charts and companies financials, and in the end, you still may be on the wrong side of the fence. Keep pluggin, you know as well as anyone its a grind. Its more like warfare.

 

[culdeus]

It is really, really windy in Texas today. I'm sure the books have that covered up but I thought you should know if you want to know why the tex/laa total looks off.

 

[lumpy19]

Lump - you broke even when including teasers?

yup...i won 67k in december alone....i've lost all of that back over the last 4 months. Pretty awful. Like optionmaven said above, in the stock market you can do all the right things and still lose. After the 20 month run i had this is definitely the correction. Just tough to have confidence in myself after such a rough patch.Plus we're looking at the possibility of a shortened NFL and NBA season this year, boooooo!

 

[modogg]

Lump - you broke even when including teasers?

yup...i won 67k in december alone....i've lost all of that back over the last 4 months. Pretty awful. Like optionmaven said above, in the stock market you can do all the right things and still lose. After the 20 month run i had this is definitely the correction. Just tough to have confidence in myself after such a rough patch.Plus we're looking at the possibility of a shortened NFL and NBA season this year, boooooo!

yeah, that blows bud. but these things can go up and down, and your still in better shape then the majority of gamblers if you can at least say you broke even. I know you have done real well with baseball in the past, i think especially in that '09 year with a lot of your baseball props, so hopefully those can start to heat up for you once the early season jitters go away for the baseball teamsETA: and all you got to do is take whatever you have and put it on the Flyers tonight. Guaranteed win right there, you can double up whatever you have laying around

 

[TheWick]

Lump - you broke even when including teasers?

yup...i won 67k in december alone....i've lost all of that back over the last 4 months. Pretty awful. Like optionmaven said above, in the stock market you can do all the right things and still lose. After the 20 month run i had this is definitely the correction. Just tough to have confidence in myself after such a rough patch.Plus we're looking at the possibility of a shortened NFL and NBA season this year, boooooo!

Thats tough Lump...it is so difficult to just stick to what you are best at and just hammer it. To just bet the biggest edge would be ideal but nearly impossible. I know exactly what you mean by losing confidence...I get gun shy way to easy. Hopefully they get this NFL straightened out. I may not read every post in this thread everyday but I make sure and always catch yours. Keep bangin.

 

[lumpy19]

Lump - you broke even when including teasers?

yup...i won 67k in december alone....i've lost all of that back over the last 4 months. Pretty awful. Like optionmaven said above, in the stock market you can do all the right things and still lose. After the 20 month run i had this is definitely the correction. Just tough to have confidence in myself after such a rough patch.Plus we're looking at the possibility of a shortened NFL and NBA season this year, boooooo!

yeah, that blows bud. but these things can go up and down, and your still in better shape then the majority of gamblers if you can at least say you broke even. I know you have done real well with baseball in the past, i think especially in that '09 year with a lot of your baseball props, so hopefully those can start to heat up for you once the early season jitters go away for the baseball teamsETA: and all you got to do is take whatever you have and put it on the Flyers tonight. Guaranteed win right there, you can double up whatever you have laying around

1-1

 

[modogg]

1-1

game has me nervous, really looking like it can go either way. Glad the Flyers got the 2-1 cushion for now, but certainly not a lead the Flyers can feel safe with. Happy Boooosh is looking good

 

[MarshallPlan]

Just looking through my spreadsheet trying to figure out why I can no longer win.....some interesting numbers(interesting to me at least)GooRoo introduced props to the FBG wagering thread in late 2008(that i know of). I joined the party hardcore in Mar 2009. From Mar 2009 to Sept 2010 not a single losing month. In the beginning all I bet was props, burned out all my options there so the last months of that streak were all sides/totals etc.Oct 2010 my first losing month in 20 months....from oct 2010 to current day break even. 7 months of busting my ### to break even. I would say at least 6000(~210 days x ~30bets/day) bets during that period. Considering how strong NFL teasers were in december it's been a pretty ugly 2011. This "hobby" is a complete and total mind F_____OK back at it, just wanted to get that off my chest. It's a crap load of work to win at this hobby.

If I worked that hard for that long and broke even I'd probably take my ball and go home. It's not going to get any easier, the market is always evolving and getting better. I'm very fortunate to still have almost all of my outs still available for props, correlated parlays, etc but like you if I was limited to just sides/totals I'd struggle to break even as well.

 

[Raider Nation]

Bulls by 30 tonight. I don't see how the Pacers overcome that devastating loss in game 1.

God, I'm terrible at this.I hope the Pacers win SU at this point.

 

[lumpy19]

If I worked that hard for that long and broke even I'd probably take my ball and go home. It's not going to get any easier, the market is always evolving and getting better. I'm very fortunate to still have almost all of my outs still available for props, correlated parlays, etc but like you if I was limited to just sides/totals I'd struggle to break even as well.

I've had those limitations for about a year now....it's just the last 4 months that have been a struggle.I'm cutting back the sides and totals and focusing on smaller stuff for now.I'm not ready to take my ball and go home, I have a really good understanding of how all this offshore sports stuff works. I built a legitimate bankroll once and I think I can do it again.The crushing thing was hitting a 4 month losing streak at the same time I had to pay the tax man.

 

[nittanylion]

lumpy, when I hit a bad patch like that, (and I hit one earlier this year before I started posting here, right about the same time you did, although my numbers weren't quite in the same ball park as yours), it always helps my perspective to take an afternoon to rewatch the movie 'Rounders'. Whatever it is, after watching that flick, I always feel like as long as I can be patient, maintain my self control and stick with what I know, I can dig myself out of any deficit, I've managed to get myself in. It just takes time, and a willingness to grind, and not be tempted by the Big Win (which is usually where I lose my self control when I'm up big). Always seems takes a lot less time to lose the bankroll than to build it!

Everyone enjoys your work and commentary here, and it's a safe bet that we all empathize with your situation, and are looking forward to seeing you get it all back, and then some, in time.

 

[MarshallPlan]

If I worked that hard for that long and broke even I'd probably take my ball and go home. It's not going to get any easier, the market is always evolving and getting better. I'm very fortunate to still have almost all of my outs still available for props, correlated parlays, etc but like you if I was limited to just sides/totals I'd struggle to break even as well.

I've had those limitations for about a year now....it's just the last 4 months that have been a struggle.I'm cutting back the sides and totals and focusing on smaller stuff for now.I'm not ready to take my ball and go home, I have a really good understanding of how all this offshore sports stuff works. I built a legitimate bankroll once and I think I can do it again.The crushing thing was hitting a 4 month losing streak at the same time I had to pay the tax man.

Would it be better for you to simply focus on football and scale back on the other sports? Then, scale up and bet more on football?

 

[PatsFanCT]

I kinda like the Canucks at -1.5 (+220) tonight. The Blackhawks are down 3-0 and are absolutely desperate for a win. I think I like the best team in the league playing comfortably than a the team that has to play balls out desperate. Canucks are going to capitalize on Chicago's mistakes.

Of course I am ALWAYS wrong, so I wouldn't advise tailing.

 

[lumpy19]

Would it be better for you to simply focus on football and scale back on the other sports? Then, scale up and bet more on football?

I don't think so, there are only 512 NFL games, that's like 1 month of baseball. Volume of bets with small edges has always been what I've done, even with props and the lower limits the answer was to just bet everything with even the tiniest edge.Fla -195....they can't lose to pittsburgh....just won't happen

 

[Cawbird]

NHL........Gotta go with the road teams, just like last night.

I think it was a wake up call with San Jose getting shut out the last game against the Kings on Saturday night. The Sharks only gave up 19 shots and I see them taking back home ice tonight. The Hawks could be completely deflated from game 3 on Sunday. Vancouver still hasn't played their best game and..........Seabrook has been ruled out for tonight. Bolland is back, but he may be pretty rusty from not playing since March 9th.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Tough push on that game today, so many chances for that sixth goal.Tomorrow I like the Bruins, Flyers and the over Salami. glllll

Salami O10.5 and Blackhawks +115 tonight.glllllll

 

[optionmaven]

NHL........Gotta go with the road teams, just like last night.I think it was a wake up call with San Jose getting shut out the last game against the Kings on Saturday night. The Sharks only gave up 19 shots and I see them taking back home ice tonight. The Hawks could be completely deflated from game 3 on Sunday. Vancouver still hasn't played their best game and..........Seabrook has been ruled out for tonight. Bolland is back, but he may be pretty rusty from not playing since March 9th.

I'm in agreement with the board sentiment about the hawks. They look tired and lethargic (canucks helping make them look that way,by far best team in nhl this yr), and seem to want this season to end. The whole yr they looked like they were tired due to the short offseason. They looked like they were still hungover from the parade at many points too. Easily had the talent still to get a decent seed in the playoffs, (4 or 5 would have been fine) they just failed on many occasions to do the little things you have to do to win. They are ready for the offseason imo. No bet for me.

 

[bmj87]

1u Arizona +145

YTD 14-8 +7.61u

 

[Joe Summer]

Is there a line for over/under free throw attempts for Portland tonight? Because whatever it is, I would bet the over. Nate McMillan asked David Stern how much he would have to pay to get Danny Crawford to referee Game 2 (since Crawford calls lots of fouls on Dallas) and Stern said "Oh, about $35,000."

 

[TheGooRoo]

Is there a line for over/under free throw attempts for Portland tonight? Because whatever it is, I would bet the over. Nate McMillan asked David Stern how much he would have to pay to get Danny Crawford to referee Game 2 (since Crawford calls lots of fouls on Dallas) and Stern said "Oh, about $35,000."

Only thing I see is o/u 16' made fts.