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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

love the divisional idea. i tossed out road teams and tried to find the best spot to use teams like NE, GB etc. pretty sure i am jinxing myself, but % wise you get more value saving the other teams for other weeks.

 
'Johnny Detroit said:
'Raider Nation said:
Need a quick opinion. Is it a good idea to buy a half point to get Notre Dame down to 3?I hate laying 3.5 on the road, and I suspect this line will go to 4 before it goes to 3.
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NEVER. NO. NEVER. NO.3 and 7 are not 3 and 7 like in the NFL.
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I disagree, that's why the books don't charge the same(as the NFL) for buying on to or off of the 3/7 in college. The numbers I've seen show the books have it priced right in college and it's no better or no worse buying the 1/2 point. that's also why teasers don't work on most college games.
 
i am going by the math dating back to 1996. push-rate for a 3 in CFB is only 6.1%, so the true value is only 13 cents. 7 is 4.7%, 10 4.8%, 14 3.9% and 24 4.4%.

in the nfl since 1996, 3 is 9.5%, 7 is 5.7%, 10 5.6% and 12 5.1%.

the value on 13 years of data is not equal to what they charge you. not sure how anyone can argue it makes sense?

 
'Johnny Detroit said:
i am going by the math dating back to 1996. push-rate for a 3 in CFB is only 6.1%, so the true value is only 13 cents. 7 is 4.7%, 10 4.8%, 14 3.9% and 24 4.4%.

in the nfl since 1996, 3 is 9.5%, 7 is 5.7%, 10 5.6% and 12 5.1%.

the value on 13 years of data is not equal to what they charge you. not sure how anyone can argue it makes sense?
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It's only 10 cents to go from -3.5(-110) to -3(-120) on the notre dame game at betonline which is the first book i opened.ETA: pinny charges 19 cents, bookmaker is 10 cents

 
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we are both right actually. some books usually charge -130, other -120. with a value of 13 cents and getting it for 10 cents do it. my places charge -130 or 20 cents so i lose 7 cents.

 
'Johnny Detroit said:
we are both right actually. some books usually charge -130, other -120. with a value of 13 cents and getting it for 10 cents do it. my places charge -130 or 20 cents so i lose 7 cents.
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Actually it's kind of eye opening to me that pinny charges 19 cents and bookmaker only 10 cents, that's a pretty big difference. Those are the 2 books I tend to trust the most and they're way off.
 
i always follow the pinnacle rule :) they reject a bet and another place allows it, bet it. if they charge X and another Y, bet it.

'lumpy19 said:
'Johnny Detroit said:
i am going by the math dating back to 1996. push-rate for a 3 in CFB is only 6.1%, so the true value is only 13 cents. 7 is 4.7%, 10 4.8%, 14 3.9% and 24 4.4%.

in the nfl since 1996, 3 is 9.5%, 7 is 5.7%, 10 5.6% and 12 5.1%.

the value on 13 years of data is not equal to what they charge you. not sure how anyone can argue it makes sense?
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It's only 10 cents to go from -3.5(-110) to -3(-120) on the notre dame game at betonline which is the first book i opened.ETA: pinny charges 19 cents, bookmaker is 10 cents
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Peyton Manning never misses an NFL game. Point spreads never move nine points in the NFL. Apparently, there is a first time for everything.Never before has the likely absence of one player moved a line nine points - but this is Peyton Manning and the fastest growing sportsbook in the US, BetOnline.com, says that changes the game significantly."Never in the history of the NFL has one player's absence had such a huge impact on the point spread," says Dave Mason at BetOnline. "Usually when a star quarterback is expected to miss a game, the spread will move somewhere between three to five points; never has it been anywhere near nine points. Maybe if half the squad was injured, or arrested the night before...."Since entering the NFL back in 1998, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has never missed a start. However, now thanks to lingering soreness from off-season neck surgery, his streak of 208 consecutive regular season starts will most likely come to an end this Sunday as his Colts visit the Houston Texans. In full anticipation of Manning carrying a clipboard Sunday, BetOnline currently has the Colts as nine-point underdogs; that's a nine point move from where they originally opened at a "pick 'em".Why such a drastic move? "Take a look at the Colts and what else do they have? Their defense is average... their running back is a glorified third down back... sure they have a nice receiver corps, but will 38-year old Kerry Collins--Manning's back-up--be able to get them the ball consistently? Doubtful," Mason explains.The Colts are always a team that the betting public loves to back, but don't expect that to be the case this year if Manning isn't healthy. In fact, their odds to win the Super Bowl have plummeted from 9-1 all the way down to 18-1 at BetOnline. "That's as long of a long shot that the Colts have been in years," Mason says. "Take those odds and if Manning comes back strong, you've got a nice little lottery ticket in your pocket."
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'Raider Nation said:
Peyton Manning never misses an NFL game. Point spreads never move nine points in the NFL. Apparently, there is a first time for everything.Never before has the likely absence of one player moved a line nine points - but this is Peyton Manning and the fastest growing sportsbook in the US, BetOnline.com, says that changes the game significantly."Never in the history of the NFL has one player's absence had such a huge impact on the point spread," says Dave Mason at BetOnline. "Usually when a star quarterback is expected to miss a game, the spread will move somewhere between three to five points; never has it been anywhere near nine points. Maybe if half the squad was injured, or arrested the night before...."Since entering the NFL back in 1998, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has never missed a start. However, now thanks to lingering soreness from off-season neck surgery, his streak of 208 consecutive regular season starts will most likely come to an end this Sunday as his Colts visit the Houston Texans. In full anticipation of Manning carrying a clipboard Sunday, BetOnline currently has the Colts as nine-point underdogs; that's a nine point move from where they originally opened at a "pick 'em".Why such a drastic move? "Take a look at the Colts and what else do they have? Their defense is average... their running back is a glorified third down back... sure they have a nice receiver corps, but will 38-year old Kerry Collins--Manning's back-up--be able to get them the ball consistently? Doubtful," Mason explains.The Colts are always a team that the betting public loves to back, but don't expect that to be the case this year if Manning isn't healthy. In fact, their odds to win the Super Bowl have plummeted from 9-1 all the way down to 18-1 at BetOnline. "That's as long of a long shot that the Colts have been in years," Mason says. "Take those odds and if Manning comes back strong, you've got a nice little lottery ticket in your pocket."
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I think his injury is significant enough to effect every season win total that indy plays. At least the first 4 weeks of games when i'm 95% confident he'll be out a tough game is now a much easier game.
 
I know sportsbooks have been discussed many times here, specifically Betjamaica, 5dimes (Heritage now?), sportsbook.com, The Greek, etc. but I'd like recommendations on where to start one up since my local now gives me my own special lines. My criteria is pretty simple-I'd like a place that's easy to get money in and out of from the US. I don't do much live betting and I don't often bet props so that's not a concern.

I've had BetUS for a while and had success drawing money out from them but have heard many nightmare stories. I actually had a sportsbook.com account when they were Aces.com and had good success with them.

Thanks in advance for the feedback.

 
'Warehouse Nasty said:
I know sportsbooks have been discussed many times here, specifically Betjamaica, 5dimes (Heritage now?), sportsbook.com, The Greek, etc. but I'd like recommendations on where to start one up since my local now gives me my own special lines. My criteria is pretty simple-I'd like a place that's easy to get money in and out of from the US. I don't do much live betting and I don't often bet props so that's not a concern.I've had BetUS for a while and had success drawing money out from them but have heard many nightmare stories. I actually had a sportsbook.com account when they were Aces.com and had good success with them. Thanks in advance for the feedback.
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They are all about the same to get money to and from now...you have CC's and moneygram/western union to get money in and most do checks out or wire transfers. I prefer checks myself.5dimes is the one I trust the most along with The Greek. I believe the Greek is now heritage now 5dimes.My 2 cents.
 
greek is greek and closed bet jamaica. heritage is own company and been around forever. spiro is taking pinnacle route. tons of $ and not worth messing with the feds.

 
'Warehouse Nasty said:
I know sportsbooks have been discussed many times here, specifically Betjamaica, 5dimes (Heritage now?), sportsbook.com, The Greek, etc. but I'd like recommendations on where to start one up since my local now gives me my own special lines. My criteria is pretty simple-I'd like a place that's easy to get money in and out of from the US. I don't do much live betting and I don't often bet props so that's not a concern.I've had BetUS for a while and had success drawing money out from them but have heard many nightmare stories. I actually had a sportsbook.com account when they were Aces.com and had good success with them. Thanks in advance for the feedback.
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5dimes is the answer unless you want to bet NFL teasers. They shade just like your local.I'd go with sportsbook.com if you're going to bet NFL teasers.
 
Anyone in pigskin pickem leagues where you have to pick every NFL game? I'm in one and am looking for some leans on all games.

:thanks:

 
What do you guys think of my parlay card?

3 teams ($5) pays 6:1

- Titans +3

- Raiders +3

- Bills/Chiefs UNDER 40

5 teams + previous 3 bets ($10) pays 20:1

- Steelers +2

- 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 39

10 teams + previous 5 bets ($5) pays 200:1 (9 out of 10 pays, 50 to 1)

- Lions/Bucs OVER 41

- Panthers/Cardinals UNDER 37

- Eagles - 6

- Chargers - 9

- Cowboys/Jets OVER 41

 
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'Tiger Fan said:
Anyone in pigskin pickem leagues where you have to pick every NFL game? I'm in one and am looking for some leans on all games.

:thanks:
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I don't know if this will help, but we have an NFL pick 'em game started in the FFA (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=606652) and you can probably check some things out there. off the top of my head i went: GB, ATL, Buff, Houston, STL (over my beloved Birds :cry: ), Detroit, Pitt (but not much confidence here, basic coinflip), Tenn, Cle, WAS, Minnesota, SF, Carolina (i think it was over 7 so i went on a limb here), NYJ, NE, and Oakland.

I think i like Cle, NYJ, Atl the best (but again off the top of my head as I am falling asleep, so take it with a grain of salt)

 
'lumpy19 said:
FBG sending an email that manning requires another neck surgery, good enough for me, betonline left Indy's reg season win total up, I'm on it, U10 -160
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Easiest 1k I've ever made :banned:Mort reporting another surgery and out 2-3 months
 
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Thursday Night Game

Drew Brees U26 completions LOSS

Ryan Grant NO TD WIN

Jermichael Finley 1st Rec O8.5 yards WIN

James Jones U3 receptions WIN

Devery Henderson Longest Rec U20.5 yards LOSS

Sproles U 35.5 yards rushing (sportsbetting) WIN

Graham O29.5 yards receiving (sportsbetting) WIN

Sunday

Ray Rice O82.5 yards rushing+receiving

Berrian O8.5 yards on first reception

Wells O3.5 yards on 1st carry

Jaguars O17.5 completions

Chris Johnson U108.5 rushing yards

Owen Daniels O3.5 recptions

Monday

Hernandez O8.5 yards on 1st reception

Branch U4 receptions

Ochocinco U4 receptions

Brady O21.5 receptions

ETA -

Romo over 21.5 completions

 
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A guy in my local survivor league is taking GB as his pick. His reason is that the defending Super Bowl winner is 11-0 in their first game of the season since 2000. I think he's nuts. :mellow:

 
'TheWick said:
'Man In The Box said:
'TheWick said:
Sproles U 35.5 yards rushing (sportsbetting)Graham O29.5 yards receiving (sportsbetting)
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:lmao: Are these still up? God I miss SportsBetting. I may have to make a deposit just to bet these.
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They were at 43.5 for Sproles and 27.5 for Graham this morning...I got money in as fast as I could.
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Yeah, I checked just for goofs, and Graham was at 34.5 with crazy juice, and Sproles was off the board completely.
 
I love home teams in the first few weeks of the season, especially home dogs. But tonight I really like New Orleans. Green Bay was 8-6 last year, then caught fire and went on an incredible roll in the playoffs. All anyone remembers is how great their offense looked during that stretch.

Following an off-season of partying, that was uninterrupted by OTAs, there's no way Green Bay picks up right where they left off. I think this game is a toss-up and so love getting the 4.5 points. Two units on the Saints.

 
I think most of you are in trouble - layed down 10 units on various stuff on tonights game and every single bet was wagered in the same direciton by someone in here.

I also have 2 units on Ok St and Zona. 70 might not be enough.

 
I'll try to talk you out of it, Bender:

Team Defense differential is going to play a HUGE role in outcome of probably at least the first four weeks of THIS NFL Season, due to the whacky preseason. Green Bay and the Saints have comparable offenses, but the Packers is at least a shade better. Also, Saints are without a key piece in Lance Moore, although Sproles and a year more experienced Jimmy Graham help out...but there's a GLARING difference between the two defenses, with the Packers having an advantage. The Saints were crap against the run in the preseason. Now starting DE Will Smith will sit tonight, starting a two-game suspension. No Sharper either for the Saints, who was the heart and soul of that unit...

...add back in Finley and Ryan Grant for GB offense. Grant/Starks combo is very solid way to balance their offense and keep the Defense honest...Packers can be counted on to score high at home, but you have to count on the Saints being able to score at least 21 points to cover here - doesn't sound like much, but when playing from behind, vs a superior defense, vs an offense who can run the ball vs their weak run defense, which will bleed time off the clock and reduce Saints opps in increase their risk of error, it's just not good juju...Packers are very good at home, while Saints are a below-average road team...

Green Bay should win this by a touchdown, unless turnovers play a role in the Saints favor, which they shouldn't because the Packers shouldn't have do anything risky on Offense - their high-percentage stuff should be enough to build a lead, and then kick in their running game to bleed time, and force the Saints to play high-risk catch up, vs Woodson and the secondary. With a solid home team playing at home vs a below avg road team, and the home team having a slightly better offense, and a MUCH better defense, and a solid home running game vs a weak road run defense, it's very tough for me to see New Orleans keeping up here.

I'm not playing GB heavy, but I'm playing 'em for sure. Good luck!

 
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