MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?
EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.
EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
dogs.
MP turned us on to this years ago. I still use it with mixed success.MLB betting system
First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.
Second, eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so. If the odds are any higher than this, there’s undoubtedly a good reason, most probably that the underdogs are seriously out-manned. So scratch such games and move on.
Third, eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). While various newspapers and Internet Web sites can provide you with ERA statistics, I strongly encourage you to use the adjusted (or “normalized”) ERA rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin® and displayed on USA Today’s Web site at
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm
in which Sagarin uses somewhat complicated data to assign each pitcher in the league a number for what his ERA “should be.” He determines an ERA for every pitcher as compared to other pitchers’ performances from 1946-1999, resulting in a stat he has dubbed an NPERA (or “normalized predicted earned-run average”).
When you go the USA Today’s site, you’ll notice that it lists the American and National Leagues separately, and also that it breaks pitchers into categories according to number of innings pitched. For each pitcher ranked, there is much information included, but you’re primarily interested in the first 5 columns, which list the pitcher’s rank in the entire league, his name, his team, whether he’s a righty or a lefty, and his NPERA:
Rank Name Team R/L NPERA
#1 Mike Mussina NYY R 1.99
Because ranked pitchers are broken into categories according to number of innings pitched, make sure you don’t overlook a pitcher who’s been injured or just moved from a reliever to a starter role or otherwise hasn’t racked up enough innings to make the primary list. He still could be among the league’s better pitchers yet is ranked highly in a category of lesser innings pitched further down the screen. This applies mostly early in the season.
Following the 3 primary criteria, on a day with a full slate of as many as 15 games, you should be left with between 3 and 9 underdogs on which to wager. Using our example Formula, you will put $20 on each game’s moneyline.
Don’t forget that all bettors should have access to more than one sportsbook -- local bookies and/or online gambling sites -- and it’s never more important than when betting on the moneyline. Odds can vary wildly from one bookie or site to the next, and you should shop around for the ones giving you the best possible odds on any particular game. For instance, if you’re betting 5 games on a particular day, you may want to spread those wagers over 2 Web sites and 3 local bookies, depending on who’s giving the best odds on each underdog.
The Goal
The simple objective is to bet only on baseball underdogs that haven’t lost 3 or more games in a row and are playing against favorites that haven’t won 3 or more games in a row and are starting mediocre pitchers.
The Series
Unlike in most of my Programs, there is no set Series for this System. Instead, your bets will be based on a percentage of your Personal Betting Bankroll, the Formula for which is below. Of course, the percentage will increase as your Bankroll builds.
The Formula
The simple Formula for setting the Series Amounts in The Baseball Underdog System is
.0125 x your Bankroll = Series Amount.
This means you bet 1.25% of your Bankroll on every game. So, if your Bankroll is $1,600, you would bet $20 on every game. By playing an average of 5 games per day, that means you’ll be betting $100 a day.
This protects your Personal Betting Bankroll in the same way as dividing it into 4 Betting Blocks. In fact, you would have to go 0 wins and 80 losses -- or 16 days without a win -- to entirely deplete your Bankroll.
If you think this starting Series Amount is too low -- and, frankly, with a $1,600 Bankroll, it may be -- you can raise it to 2.5% of your Bankroll. This means you would have to go 0 wins and 40 losses -- or 8 days without a win -- to go through your whole Bankroll.
The Rules
1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.
2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers’ daily MLB standings.)
3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin® on USA Today’s Web site (see above for a further explanation).
4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.
6) Before making the next day’s bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.
Under the Gun (and the Total) With Two Great Pitchers
When betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league -- always on the “under” total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these “pitchers duels” often go under the total set by oddsmakers, usually somewhere between 7.5 and 9 runs.
To help you see how this works, I’ve included them in the real-life examples below, which feature an entire week from an actual MLB season using The Baseball Underdog System.