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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Anyone see a problem with Jason Bay -110 most total bases vs. Ryan Howard?

Howard is going against one of the toughest lefties in the game.

Bay is going against.... Jamie Moyer. :goodposting:

Am I missing something?

 
Anyone see a problem with Jason Bay -110 most total bases vs. Ryan Howard?

Howard is going against one of the toughest lefties in the game.

Bay is going against.... Jamie Moyer. :goodposting:

Am I missing something?
you might want to look up the stats....howard doesn't have much trouble against santana7/23 with 3 of those 7 being HR.

 
Anyone see a problem with Jason Bay -110 most total bases vs. Ryan Howard?

Howard is going against one of the toughest lefties in the game.

Bay is going against.... Jamie Moyer. :eek:

Am I missing something?
you might want to look up the stats....howard doesn't have much trouble against santana7/23 with 3 of those 7 being HR.
Smaller sample size, but Bay is 3 for 8 with 1 HR against Moyer. I'll take my chances.Also took a small Philly +120/over 9 parlay just for S & G.

 
Anyone see a problem with Jason Bay -110 most total bases vs. Ryan Howard?

Howard is going against one of the toughest lefties in the game.

Bay is going against.... Jamie Moyer. ;)

Am I missing something?
you might want to look up the stats....howard doesn't have much trouble against santana7/23 with 3 of those 7 being HR.
Smaller sample size, but Bay is 3 for 8 with 1 HR against Moyer. I'll take my chances.Also took a small Philly +120/over 9 parlay just for S & G.
LOL. That "S & G" parlay will put me up a whopping $6.16 for the game if Howard defeats Bay. :rant:
 
Anyone see a problem with Jason Bay -110 most total bases vs. Ryan Howard?

Howard is going against one of the toughest lefties in the game.

Bay is going against.... Jamie Moyer. :mellow:

Am I missing something?
you might want to look up the stats....howard doesn't have much trouble against santana7/23 with 3 of those 7 being HR.
Smaller sample size, but Bay is 3 for 8 with 1 HR against Moyer. I'll take my chances.Also took a small Philly +120/over 9 parlay just for S & G.
LOL. That "S & G" parlay will put me up a whopping $6.16 for the game if Howard defeats Bay. :thumbup:
that is funny. I was just coming to congratulate you with joining the Phils and their bats heating up, but i forgot you had the other play against Moyer. He is really a tough one to bet with or against.
 
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?

 
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
dogs.
 
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
dogs.
Thanks. Do you have some data on this or is it just an educated guess?I hate to jinx it, but I have been flat betting every single MLB game for the past few weeks... I'm talking SILLY low amounts. No more than $50 a game. I sent $300, got it to well over $1,000 in just a few days (I mentioned the pay out I got a few days ago), and the balance is back up in that area again. I don't shoot my load on one game anymore. That's what used to hurt me. Even amounts across the board, so no one game crushes me. I study each pitcher's WHIP, average against, and ERA, and I take my best shot with either the fav -1½ or the dog SU.

But instead of all the daily research, I wondered if flat betting one OR the other every time might pay off.

 
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
dogs.
Thanks. Do you have some data on this or is it just an educated guess?I hate to jinx it, but I have been flat betting every single MLB game for the past few weeks... I'm talking SILLY low amounts. No more than $50 a game. I sent $300, got it to well over $1,000 in just a few days (I mentioned the pay out I got a few days ago), and the balance is back up in that area again. I don't shoot my load on one game anymore. That's what used to hurt me. Even amounts across the board, so no one game crushes me. I study each pitcher's WHIP, average against, and ERA, and I take my best shot with either the fav -1½ or the dog SU.

But instead of all the daily research, I wondered if flat betting one OR the other every time might pay off.
Educated guess. I could be wrong though.
 
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
dogs.
Thanks. Do you have some data on this or is it just an educated guess?I hate to jinx it, but I have been flat betting every single MLB game for the past few weeks... I'm talking SILLY low amounts. No more than $50 a game. I sent $300, got it to well over $1,000 in just a few days (I mentioned the pay out I got a few days ago), and the balance is back up in that area again. I don't shoot my load on one game anymore. That's what used to hurt me. Even amounts across the board, so no one game crushes me. I study each pitcher's WHIP, average against, and ERA, and I take my best shot with either the fav -1½ or the dog SU.

But instead of all the daily research, I wondered if flat betting one OR the other every time might pay off.
Nothing in sports betting is that easy. If there was a way to do no research and just grind it out and win the internet would be all over it.
 
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
The favorite +130 on the -1.5 run line has to happen only what? 10% of the time you see a +130 dog.
 
culdeus said:
Raider Nation said:
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
The favorite +130 on the -1.5 run line has to happen only what? 10% of the time you see a +130 dog.
Hey Culdy... I wasn't talking about in the same game. I meant grab the run line +130 in THIS game... take the dog +130 or more in THAT game, etc. Though it certainly does happen in the same game. We don't have a full slate tonight, but the Mets are +120 SU, while the Reds are +155 on the RL.
 
1 from each sport

Cavs -6

Anti zig-zag theory. I don't like this Boston team :goodposting:

Blackhawks -160

They'll bounce back

Cards -120

Love Garcia.....Blanton is a wild card. Better prices available on this now. Garcia will win ROY this year.

 
1 from each sportCavs -6Anti zig-zag theory. I don't like this Boston team :cry:Blackhawks -160They'll bounce backCards -120Love Garcia.....Blanton is a wild card. Better prices available on this now. Garcia will win ROY this year.
Guys that talk to me on the regular are so sick of hearing about Garcia. The guy is absolutely amazing. His groundball:flyball ratio is outstanding. Forget about hitting it out of the park, it is an accomplishment to hit it out of the infield on this guy. Carp, Wainwright, Garcia, Penny, thats tough.
 
1 from each sportCavs -6Anti zig-zag theory. I don't like this Boston team :mellow:Blackhawks -160They'll bounce backCards -120Love Garcia.....Blanton is a wild card. Better prices available on this now. Garcia will win ROY this year.
Guys that talk to me on the regular are so sick of hearing about Garcia. The guy is absolutely amazing. His groundball:flyball ratio is outstanding. Forget about hitting it out of the park, it is an accomplishment to hit it out of the infield on this guy. Carp, Wainwright, Garcia, Penny, thats tough.
St. L series bet looks nice at -130 too ;) . You get Garcia against Blanton, Wainwright against Hamels, and Penny against Kendrick.
 
culdeus said:
Raider Nation said:
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
The favorite +130 on the -1.5 run line has to happen only what? 10% of the time you see a +130 dog.
Hey Culdy... I wasn't talking about in the same game. I meant grab the run line +130 in THIS game... take the dog +130 or more in THAT game, etc. Though it certainly does happen in the same game. We don't have a full slate tonight, but the Mets are +120 SU, while the Reds are +155 on the RL.
ok, gotcha. I needed some ;)
 
Playing heavy on Rangers +128 tonight.Even heavier on Rangers OVER 4.
What do you see Hoot? I'm a Braden fan and Texas doesn't like to face lefties.
The thing that concerns me the most is Braden's last game where he admitted that the lost feeling in his two toes was really bothering him. Pitchers admitting to anything is never a good sign.Very limited sample size but against Braden:Vlad- 2/3Hamilton- 2/3Kinsler- 4/10Young- 4/13are at least inspiring. Harden doesn't have any history against the A's lineup, but is generally a good play the first couple months of the season before getting his first DL stint. His fastball is down a little this year though. I like Braden too, but he's not particularity fancy and could get himself into trouble if he tries to do too much. He needs some time off that foot. I think Texas's bullpen has righted itself and should be able to keep the A's in control even if Harden works himself to death early.
 
cripes.....I played maybe 5 props at betphoenix during the NBA playoffs so far. Perusing the numbers today and my limits are at $50. Pretty quick with the limits over there :shrug:

 
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MarshallPlan said:
Raider Nation said:
Question. If I were to flat-bet one or the other of these scenarios for the rest of the baseball season, which one do you think would cash more often?

EVERY underdog straight up which is getting +130 or better.

EVERY favorite -1½ on the run line when they are grabbing +130 or better?
dogs.
MP turned us on to this years ago. I still use it with mixed success.MLB betting system

First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.

Second, eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so. If the odds are any higher than this, there’s undoubtedly a good reason, most probably that the underdogs are seriously out-manned. So scratch such games and move on.

Third, eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). While various newspapers and Internet Web sites can provide you with ERA statistics, I strongly encourage you to use the adjusted (or “normalized”) ERA rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin® and displayed on USA Today’s Web site at

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm

in which Sagarin uses somewhat complicated data to assign each pitcher in the league a number for what his ERA “should be.” He determines an ERA for every pitcher as compared to other pitchers’ performances from 1946-1999, resulting in a stat he has dubbed an NPERA (or “normalized predicted earned-run average”).

When you go the USA Today’s site, you’ll notice that it lists the American and National Leagues separately, and also that it breaks pitchers into categories according to number of innings pitched. For each pitcher ranked, there is much information included, but you’re primarily interested in the first 5 columns, which list the pitcher’s rank in the entire league, his name, his team, whether he’s a righty or a lefty, and his NPERA:

Rank Name Team R/L NPERA

#1 Mike Mussina NYY R 1.99

Because ranked pitchers are broken into categories according to number of innings pitched, make sure you don’t overlook a pitcher who’s been injured or just moved from a reliever to a starter role or otherwise hasn’t racked up enough innings to make the primary list. He still could be among the league’s better pitchers yet is ranked highly in a category of lesser innings pitched further down the screen. This applies mostly early in the season.

Following the 3 primary criteria, on a day with a full slate of as many as 15 games, you should be left with between 3 and 9 underdogs on which to wager. Using our example Formula, you will put $20 on each game’s moneyline.

Don’t forget that all bettors should have access to more than one sportsbook -- local bookies and/or online gambling sites -- and it’s never more important than when betting on the moneyline. Odds can vary wildly from one bookie or site to the next, and you should shop around for the ones giving you the best possible odds on any particular game. For instance, if you’re betting 5 games on a particular day, you may want to spread those wagers over 2 Web sites and 3 local bookies, depending on who’s giving the best odds on each underdog.

The Goal

The simple objective is to bet only on baseball underdogs that haven’t lost 3 or more games in a row and are playing against favorites that haven’t won 3 or more games in a row and are starting mediocre pitchers.

The Series

Unlike in most of my Programs, there is no set Series for this System. Instead, your bets will be based on a percentage of your Personal Betting Bankroll, the Formula for which is below. Of course, the percentage will increase as your Bankroll builds.

The Formula

The simple Formula for setting the Series Amounts in The Baseball Underdog System is

.0125 x your Bankroll = Series Amount.

This means you bet 1.25% of your Bankroll on every game. So, if your Bankroll is $1,600, you would bet $20 on every game. By playing an average of 5 games per day, that means you’ll be betting $100 a day.

This protects your Personal Betting Bankroll in the same way as dividing it into 4 Betting Blocks. In fact, you would have to go 0 wins and 80 losses -- or 16 days without a win -- to entirely deplete your Bankroll.

If you think this starting Series Amount is too low -- and, frankly, with a $1,600 Bankroll, it may be -- you can raise it to 2.5% of your Bankroll. This means you would have to go 0 wins and 40 losses -- or 8 days without a win -- to go through your whole Bankroll.

The Rules

1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers’ daily MLB standings.)

3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin® on USA Today’s Web site (see above for a further explanation).

4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.

6) Before making the next day’s bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.

Under the Gun (and the Total) With Two Great Pitchers

When betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league -- always on the “under” total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these “pitchers duels” often go under the total set by oddsmakers, usually somewhere between 7.5 and 9 runs.

To help you see how this works, I’ve included them in the real-life examples below, which feature an entire week from an actual MLB season using The Baseball Underdog System.

 
Tuesday MLB:

Parlay

CUBS -160 + GIANTS -175 ... pays a little more than 1.5 to 1.

Flat run line play

NATIONALS -1½ (+175)

Flat money line plays

CARDINALS -135

REDS -133

BLUE JAYS -130

ANGELS +165

TIGERS +111

 
Tuesday MLB:

Flat money line plays

CARDINALS -135

REDS -133

BLUE JAYS -130

ANGELS +165

TIGERS +111
I like the Cards and Jays as well. What do you like about the Reds?? What about TB at -130?
Any time I play a game, it's only because I perceive a pitching advantage. No different with Cincy.Arroyo has a high ERA, but he looked like he found his groove last time out, going into the 7th inning with a shutout. He kills David Wright (4 for 22 career), and the entire Mets lineup, in 175 lifetime at-bats, is hitting a remarkable .183 vs. Arroyo. He seems to own them.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=4416

<From ESPN>

Arroyo has won four consecutive starts against the Mets while posting a 2.32 ERA, and threw a four-hitter the last time he faced them -- a 3-0 win July 10 in New York.

All of that, plus John Maine BLOWS. http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6041

As far as the Rays game, their lineup is certainly better than Seattle's, but I want no part of betting against Vargas at home.

 
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I usually nose around in cycling betting this time of year. The Giro starts up this weekend. A few thoughts/

I pulled this off a british website which lists best odds with their OTB sites over there. No idea how that translates to the onlines. It's usually not far off.

The list of possible winners IMO are

Cadel Evans at 2.70 (17.10) with PaddyPower

Ivan Basso at 6.00 (5/1) with Bet365 and Sportingbet

Carlos Sastre at 6.00 (5/1) with PaddyPower and Unibet

Alexandre Vinokourov at 10.00 (9/1) with Blue Square

Vincenzo Nibali at 13.00 (12/1) with Bet365

Michele Scarponi at 26.00 (25/1) with William Hill

Bradley Wiggins at 34.00 (33/1) with Blue Square

Stefano Garzelli at 34.00 (33/1) with Blue Square

I am writing off Evans and Basso due to age. Vino may not finish, or perhaps even start.

Sastre is solid and has done well in this event. His team has no sprinter to worry about in the first week and a half so he could have protection where Evans and Basso do not have that luxury. At 5 or 6 to 1 it's not huge value though.

Nibali continues to show some promise and it is his time to put something down.

Two climbers at high odds Scarponi and Garzelli are worth value if the race breaks down and they get some big time gains in an early mountain stage.

There is a climbing time trial this year which really favors Scarpoini and Garzelli, but the last time trial they'd need a few minutes on a solid top flight contender. Hold a gun to my head and I take Sastre here.

:kicksrock:

 
Tuesday MLB:

Flat money line plays

CARDINALS -135

REDS -133

BLUE JAYS -130

ANGELS +165

TIGERS +111
I like the Cards and Jays as well. What do you like about the Reds?? What about TB at -130?
Any time I play a game, it's only because I perceive a pitching advantage. No different with Cincy.Arroyo has a high ERA, but he looked like he found his groove last time out, going into the 7th inning with a shutout. He kills David Wright (4 for 22 career), and the entire Mets lineup, in 175 lifetime at-bats, is hitting a remarkable .183 vs. Arroyo. He seems to own them.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=4416

<From ESPN>

Arroyo has won four consecutive starts against the Mets while posting a 2.32 ERA, and threw a four-hitter the last time he faced them -- a 3-0 win July 10 in New York.

All of that, plus John Maine BLOWS. http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6041

As far as the Rays game, their lineup is certainly better than Seattle's, but I want no part of betting against Vargas at home.
Nice! Great info RN...I didn't get to research that game.
 
The day before the season began, I threw $50 on the Twins to win the ALCS (13-1) and $50 on the Twins winning the World Series (26-1).

I'm a dreamer.

 
Going heavy on the Cubs and Jays tonight.

Lucked out last night with the Smoak's solo in the 9th to give me the push on the Texas run line. Braden was hittable but didn't give up any free bases.

 
Nice, a lot of stuff in this thread for tonight. I got one that looks pretty good to me so far in NBA:

Utah Jazz 1st Q +2 points - I think Utah will run with LA pretty well tonight, and the +5.5 is tempting as well. But LA starts off slow a lot, and i did pretty well during NBA season with betting against LA for the 1st half, and taking them in the second half (especially when they were home). i did it off an on, but i know i won a lot more than i lost. This one looks pretty good for tonight

 
Going heavy on the Cubs and Jays tonight.Lucked out last night with the Smoak's solo in the 9th to give me the push on the Texas run line. Braden was hittable but didn't give up any free bases.
I'll tail ya again. I was actually already on the Rangers last night when you posted but made it a 4x bet after your post.Let's win some dough
 
modogg -

Big UFC event this weekend. Really tough card to handicap with Semtex being a dog. Let's hash this out tonight, I'll be around.

Just posting the ones of interest to me, feel free to bring anything new into the fold:

Tom Lawlor (-600) vs. Joe Doerksen (+400) - Still thinking on this one. Probably add Lawlor in on a parlay with Semtex to maximize value. Just a small play.

Marcus Davis (-600) vs. Jonathon Goulet (+400) - A lot of juice for his 2nd fight in the UFC, don't you think? Goulet is horrid but he's a very seasoned veteran. Then again, their careers seem to be arcing in different directions and Davis probably trained much harder for this. I'll probably stay away but I think -600 is insane for Big Baby

Kimbo (-115) vs. Matt Mitrione (-115) - I'm really excited for this fight. I really don't know, I'm leaning Kimbo right now.

Josh Koscheck (-225) vs. Paul Daley (+185) - I really hope Kos gets KTFO. Can't stand the guy. I know I was on Kos early, but starting to buy into Daley's hands. Kos has the ability though to out wrestle him and keep him on the ground. If this goes longer than round 1, i think Kos has it in the bag as well. I dunno, really tough fight to handicap

Machida (-185) vs. Rua (+155) - Leaning Machida, but after the judges let me down last fight, I'm really nervous because this will almost certainly be a decision and who knows what in the hell the judges will botch up. Very nervous to bet this one. I wish I could find a prop that the fight goes to decision because I'd be all over it.

 
modogg -

Big UFC event this weekend. Really tough card to handicap with Semtex being a dog. Let's hash this out tonight, I'll be around.

Just posting the ones of interest to me, feel free to bring anything new into the fold:

Tom Lawlor (-600) vs. Joe Doerksen (+400) - Still thinking on this one. Probably add Lawlor in on a parlay with Semtex to maximize value. Just a small play.

Marcus Davis (-600) vs. Jonathon Goulet (+400) - A lot of juice for his 2nd fight in the UFC, don't you think? Goulet is horrid but he's a very seasoned veteran. Then again, their careers seem to be arcing in different directions and Davis probably trained much harder for this. I'll probably stay away but I think -600 is insane for Big Baby

Kimbo (-115) vs. Matt Mitrione (-115) - I'm really excited for this fight. I really don't know, I'm leaning Kimbo right now.

Josh Koscheck (-225) vs. Paul Daley (+185) - I really hope Kos gets KTFO. Can't stand the guy. I know I was on Kos early, but starting to buy into Daley's hands. Kos has the ability though to out wrestle him and keep him on the ground. If this goes longer than round 1, i think Kos has it in the bag as well. I dunno, really tough fight to handicap

Machida (-185) vs. Rua (+155) - Leaning Machida, but after the judges let me down last fight, I'm really nervous because this will almost certainly be a decision and who knows what in the hell the judges will botch up. Very nervous to bet this one. I wish I could find a prop that the fight goes to decision because I'd be all over it.
I didn't know they put more lines up, nice. I have some plays for now, and go into some detail in the MMA wagering thread:Matt Mitrione - Still has value at -115, but i hit him pretty hard when he opened at +160, and again at +135. I think this is closer to what the value should be, but, I do think that Mitrione wins this more than 50% of the time, i think closer to 70% or something (really, is Kimbo going to outpoint Mitrione, or sub him? His chance of winning is KO). I do feel Kimbo has truly trained and improved, but he was 36 or something when he got into this. I am not sure of his conditioning, and his stand-up is not very technical. And if Seth Petruzeli KO'd Kimbo, Mitrinoe can. Definate multi-unit play

Sam Stout -200 - This is a well set line, but i like Stout to win this. I got 1 unit on him

Alan belcher -125: I like Belcher's chances, though Cote has been improving nicely. A big factor here is if Belcher has continued to mature mentally with his fights. He has gotten arrogant in the past, and thrown his gameplan out the window screwing around. If he has his act together and fights like he should, I think he will win based on another overwhelming factor, Cote's ring rust.

And there is value in the lines they posted today. Pretty strange how they set them. No way Hague should be -260, no way Davis should be -600, and some of the others. The Joker (Guymon) at +235 seems like a good possible bet and maybe TJ Grant at +300. I got to look some more into these, but these lines are off.

And I'm pretty sure I will cave and lay the chalk for my man Eddie Alvarez for this Thursday's bellator card. A homer pick, and I think this could be a hell of a fight and there is value in Neer as an underdog. Hopefully I can hold out and now put a play on this fight, but if anybody has Fox Sports this will be on Thursday and should be a very good fight.

 
modogg -Big UFC event this weekend. Really tough card to handicap with Semtex being a dog. Let's hash this out tonight, I'll be around.Just posting the ones of interest to me, feel free to bring anything new into the fold:Tom Lawlor (-600) vs. Joe Doerksen (+400) - Still thinking on this one. Probably add Lawlor in on a parlay with Semtex to maximize value. Just a small play.Marcus Davis (-600) vs. Jonathon Goulet (+400) - A lot of juice for his 2nd fight in the UFC, don't you think? Goulet is horrid but he's a very seasoned veteran. Then again, their careers seem to be arcing in different directions and Davis probably trained much harder for this. I'll probably stay away but I think -600 is insane for Big BabyKimbo (-115) vs. Matt Mitrione (-115) - I'm really excited for this fight. I really don't know, I'm leaning Kimbo right now.Josh Koscheck (-225) vs. Paul Daley (+185) - I really hope Kos gets KTFO. Can't stand the guy. I know I was on Kos early, but starting to buy into Daley's hands. Kos has the ability though to out wrestle him and keep him on the ground. If this goes longer than round 1, i think Kos has it in the bag as well. I dunno, really tough fight to handicapMachida (-185) vs. Rua (+155) - Leaning Machida, but after the judges let me down last fight, I'm really nervous because this will almost certainly be a decision and who knows what in the hell the judges will botch up. Very nervous to bet this one. I wish I could find a prop that the fight goes to decision because I'd be all over it.
Some other thought i just noticed. 1. You're thinking of Marcus Jones instead of Marcus Davis. This Marcus Davis is "The Irish Hand Gernade". I think Goulet has a chance here, but i'm not sure how big of one. "Big Baby" actually retired after his fight with Mittrione. 2. I would like to see Semtex win too, and i think he has a chance too. I have to imagine after seeing Hardy get wrestled throughout the fight, that Semtex has been preparing some takedown defense (though comparing GSP and Kos i still think is a sin). i'll likely go a small play on Semtex, depending on how everything else pans out. and i agree with Machida-Rua. I grabbed a little on Rua at +160, for the basic thought that i thought money would come flying in on Machida. I honestly have no idea who wins this one.
 
modogg -Big UFC event this weekend. Really tough card to handicap with Semtex being a dog. Let's hash this out tonight, I'll be around.Just posting the ones of interest to me, feel free to bring anything new into the fold:Tom Lawlor (-600) vs. Joe Doerksen (+400) - Still thinking on this one. Probably add Lawlor in on a parlay with Semtex to maximize value. Just a small play.Marcus Davis (-600) vs. Jonathon Goulet (+400) - A lot of juice for his 2nd fight in the UFC, don't you think? Goulet is horrid but he's a very seasoned veteran. Then again, their careers seem to be arcing in different directions and Davis probably trained much harder for this. I'll probably stay away but I think -600 is insane for Big BabyKimbo (-115) vs. Matt Mitrione (-115) - I'm really excited for this fight. I really don't know, I'm leaning Kimbo right now.Josh Koscheck (-225) vs. Paul Daley (+185) - I really hope Kos gets KTFO. Can't stand the guy. I know I was on Kos early, but starting to buy into Daley's hands. Kos has the ability though to out wrestle him and keep him on the ground. If this goes longer than round 1, i think Kos has it in the bag as well. I dunno, really tough fight to handicapMachida (-185) vs. Rua (+155) - Leaning Machida, but after the judges let me down last fight, I'm really nervous because this will almost certainly be a decision and who knows what in the hell the judges will botch up. Very nervous to bet this one. I wish I could find a prop that the fight goes to decision because I'd be all over it.
Some other thought i just noticed. 1. You're thinking of Marcus Jones instead of Marcus Davis. This Marcus Davis is "The Irish Hand Gernade". I think Goulet has a chance here, but i'm not sure how big of one. "Big Baby" actually retired after his fight with Mittrione. 2. I would like to see Semtex win too, and i think he has a chance too. I have to imagine after seeing Hardy get wrestled throughout the fight, that Semtex has been preparing some takedown defense (though comparing GSP and Kos i still think is a sin). i'll likely go a small play on Semtex, depending on how everything else pans out. and i agree with Machida-Rua. I grabbed a little on Rua at +160, for the basic thought that i thought money would come flying in on Machida. I honestly have no idea who wins this one.
You're absolutely right, scratch my write up Marcus Davis lol. I know exactly who he is, I think he wins this easily. No wonder the line seemed so out of whack to me.
 
Tuesday MLB:

Parlay

Flat money line plays

CARDINALS -135
I was on the Phils tonight. I really wish I wasn't relying on Lidge right now. :unsure: Thank you Lidge. Regardless of the outcome of this game, i was glad to see he looked okay tonight. I'm really hoping he is back to his 2008 form

 
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Question:

All day, the Dodgers were -200 over the Brewers. I kept watching it but didn't bet it. Five minutes before first pitch, the line plunged to Dodgers -175. Very unusual. Sure enough, Milwaukee is leading 9-0 in the 2nd inning. :popcorn:

What in the world could someone have known which would have made the line take a nose dive like that? There were no last-minute lineup changes, and the starting pitchers didn't change either.

 
Nice UFC info.I need the Rays to salvage my night.Had the Giants, Cards, Jays, and Wings.
Glad you laid off the Reds. The Mets beat 'em in their last at-bat. :(
I was real close but already had my plays set (in mind)..didn't want to go against first instincts. Thanks though..that was/is useful stuff to be posting here.
From now on, I am only going to post underdogs who I think have a real chance of winning based on pitching matchups.1, because nobody cares.... and 2, because anyone can say they like Sabathia -260. That doesn't really help anybody.
 
Lakers -3½ (1H)Time to send an early message.
Alright buddy, what do you think the halftime line will be and which way will you go there? My Jazz +2 1st Q flopped by the run the Lakers had there (i thik the score was 20-18 Jazz with 2:20 left, and the 1st Q ends with 27-23 LAL. Arghh). i think the Lakers make sense for the play if it is close to even or something, right?EDIT: didn't realize the score was 58-44 now, ouch. I have to think the LAL may even be + points at the half.
 
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Lakers -3½ (1H)Time to send an early message.
Alright buddy, what do you think the halftime line will be and which way will you go there? My Jazz +2 1st Q flopped by the run the Lakers had there (i thik the score was 20-18 Jazz with 2:20 left, and the 1st Q ends with 27-23 LAL. Arghh). i think the Lakers make sense for the play if it is close to even or something, right?EDIT: didn't realize the score was 58-44 now, ouch. I have to think the LAL may even be + points at the half.
I'm not great at predicting these. I'd say Utah will be -2 for the 2H.
 
Lakers -3½ (1H)Time to send an early message.
Alright buddy, what do you think the halftime line will be and which way will you go there? My Jazz +2 1st Q flopped by the run the Lakers had there (i thik the score was 20-18 Jazz with 2:20 left, and the 1st Q ends with 27-23 LAL. Arghh). i think the Lakers make sense for the play if it is close to even or something, right?EDIT: didn't realize the score was 58-44 now, ouch. I have to think the LAL may even be + points at the half.
I'm not great at predicting these. I'd say Utah will be -2 for the 2H.
Pk em my guess.
 

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