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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

Feel good about my plays this week. Here goes:

CFB

Navy -7

I call this The Who game... as in I won't get fooled again. EVERY GD YEAR, no matter how much Army looks like they may have turned the corner a bit, they soil their panties against Navy. As soon as the clock hit 0:00 last year, I vowed to be on the Middies this time. Seven is a reasonable price. Anything more than 10 and I would hesitate.

NFL

Titans +3.5

Call it a hunch. Prime letdown spot for the Saints. Just one unit.

Chiefs +9

This one will be ugly. KC's D has quietly been playing lights-out. If they don't turn the ball over, they'll hang around.

Texans +3

Not much analysis needed. They are the better team, they have been playing like the better team, and I'm getting a FG.

Giants/Cowboys over 48.5

Similar to how I felt about the Packers/Giants game last week, both offenses should have their way.

Packers -11

Packers over their Team Total (figures to be about 32 or so based on the math)

Raiders/Packers over 52.5

Those three plays are BIG, BIG, BIG. I am heavily invested in the PACK this week. We aren't rushing the passer, and our secondary is playing terribly. As if Rodgers needed any more help. They can name the score in this one. I see something like 48-17.

 
'JerseyToughGuys said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Frostillicus said:
Vandy -1 in hoops tomorrow. If it's not at -2 tomorrow morning I'll be stunned. Grab it now.
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giggity
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good post
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Agreed. Thanks Bender. Had them keyed in a few parlays and hit two (2 teamer and 3 teamer) and have a six teamer pending with the blackhawks tomorrow. Thanks to who ever gave W. Carolina +24 against purdue too.In regards to your comment about the martingale system. I've been doing something along these lines with the blackhawks games with the over/unders. I'll play the overs on two or three game stretches and then play the under. If I lose, I double up next game on under......etc. over unders are almost always 5.5. The hawks are streaky hot offensively, but they seem to go into a lull for a game here and there. Once you get your under, rinse and repeat playing overs for a couple of games. Its been working, not sure how much i have won, but i know its been profitable.
 
Bodog Week 14 Specials:

Rushing TD Leader at end of season:

McCoy 1/1

ADP 7/1

Newton 4/5

Rice 12/1

Wells 20/1

Love me ADP @ 7/1 if he's back starting in week 14. :banned:

 
'mquinnjr said:
Bodog Week 14 Specials:

Rushing TD Leader at end of season:

McCoy 1/1

ADP 7/1

Newton 4/5

Rice 12/1

Wells 20/1

Love me ADP @ 7/1 if he's back starting in week 14. :banned:
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(TheHuddle) Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) was unable to practice Wednesday, Dec. 7.

Analysis: The high ankle sprain, for lack of better terms, sucks. He's reportedly not close to 100% and will probably get a chance to test the ankle in tomorrow or Friday's practice, so we won't know anything on his playing status til then. Stay tuned.
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The prop I think is a gimme is season passing yards. Brees is +125 and Brady is +150. The only other guy with a chance to win it is Rodgers and the Packers will likely rest him down the stretch.

 
I like Ryan Mathews at +1500 for total rushing yard week 14. Mathews is getting hot and the Bills run defense is pathetic.

 
'cstu said:
The prop I think is a gimme is season passing yards. Brees is +125 and Brady is +150. The only other guy with a chance to win it is Rodgers and the Packers will likely rest him down the stretch.
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FWIW, if GB is chasing perfection and given GB's history of not resting players down the stretch, I don't think it is even close to "likely" that Rodgers is going to get rested down the stretch. He may miss a half or something, but even then, I would think that is not likely to happen unless GB losses and has no chance at the perfect season.
 
'Angry Beavers said:
'cstu said:
The prop I think is a gimme is season passing yards. Brees is +125 and Brady is +150. The only other guy with a chance to win it is Rodgers and the Packers will likely rest him down the stretch.
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FWIW, if GB is chasing perfection and given GB's history of not resting players down the stretch, I don't think it is even close to "likely" that Rodgers is going to get rested down the stretch. He may miss a half or something, but even then, I would think that is not likely to happen unless GB losses and has no chance at the perfect season.
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They will get rest during their bye week.Why sit him/them out week 17 and have them not play for 3 weeks?
 
Steelers Team Total over 27.5

The hook worries me a little bit, but they should turn Cleveland over enough that it shouldn't matter.

 
I am still trying to get a feel for NCAA basketball this year; haven't placed one bet yet just watching and learning. Has anyone noticed any over/under rated teams in conferences they follow closely so far?

My genetic/geographical DNA has my mind wrapped around the Indiana-Kentucky game this Saturday at Assembly Hall. See what happens, but a fair line would be Indiana +7. +10 or more and I would be all over Indiana. +5 or less and Kentucky is a great bet. See what they post it at Friday. I'll be there at the game.

 
Here's my LSU/Bama breakdown:

Re LSU/Bama: It’s absolutely eerie how similar these teams are. My prognosis doesn’t change much from the first game. I think LSU -1 is the play here. When you look at the #s the 2 biggest things that stick out is the favor for LSU on Special Teams and Turnover Margin. This was huge in the first game, and I don’t see it being any different now.

Biggest difference since that game is that Jarrett Lee won’t be starting for LSU. He turned the ball over twice against Bama. There are a lot of Jefferson critiques out there, but he does take care of the ball. It was a different game when he was in against Bama. Now sure Saban has a month to plan for that, but Miles has proven an excellent coach in big games with long times to prepare during his LSU tenure. Additionally, Kenny Hillard has emerged as an excelled power back and has a lot more playing time under his belt, so LSU will always be able to play one of their 4 RBs fresh at any time in the game, which is a huge plus against the Bama defense.

While it won’t be a Tiger Stadium type crowd, the crowd will still be LSU favored. All signs to me point to an LSU win.

All that being said, where I’ve won my big money on all SEC (specifically Bama and LSU) teams this year is on the halftime bets. Both of these guys are 2nd half teams b/c the depth they have is just sick compared to pretty much every team they’ve faced so far. It’s a shame (selfishly) that they have to play each other.

Quote

Offense: UA - LSU

PPG 36.0 – 38.5

Total Offense - 375

Rushing Off. 220 - 215

Passing Off. 213 - 160

First downs 260 - 264

3rd down conv % 47.1 – 44.3

Penalty yards 404 – 651

Punt Return ydg 12.2 – 13.7

FG % rank 91 - 1

Defense: UA - LSU

Scoring Def. 8.8 – 10.5

Total Defense 191 - 252

Rushing Def. 75 - 85

Rush def. ypc 2.5 – 2.6

Pass Defense 116 - 166

Opp.1st down 10.5 – 14.7

Opp. 3rd conv. 25% - 35%

Turnover marg- +6 - +22

Opp Punt return yardage 5 - .35

 
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'Garrett said:
I am still trying to get a feel for NCAA basketball this year; haven't placed one bet yet just watching and learning. Has anyone noticed any over/under rated teams in conferences they follow closely so far?My genetic/geographical DNA has my mind wrapped around the Indiana-Kentucky game this Saturday at Assembly Hall. See what happens, but a fair line would be Indiana +7. +10 or more and I would be all over Indiana. +5 or less and Kentucky is a great bet. See what they post it at Friday. I'll be there at the game.
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I haven't seen much of Indiana, but I think you will get closer to 10 or more than to the 7 or less. I do think Crean has them going the right way, but it is still against Kentucky an easy top 5 school.
 
I'm holding this and the by 3's for the same

Win12/8/11 8:25pm NFL Football 102 Pittsburgh Steelers -9 +110* vs Cleveland Browns

Pending12/11/11 1:00pm NFL Football 107 Houston Texans +8 +115* vs Cincinnati Bengals

Pending12/11/11 4:15pm NFL Football 110 Green Bay Packers -6 +110* vs Oakland Raiders

Pending12/11/11 1:00pm NFL Football 119 New England Patriots -3 +105* vs Washington Redskins

An extra 1u on the Pitt/GB/NE

1/2 unit on GB -11

 
What the hell? I was checking on the Iowa/Iowa State game and Roy Marble's kid is playing? Damn I feel old.

 
Army/Navy under 57.5

Army gonna slow it down if they can with three yard dives and these two teams know each other intimately. Only once in the past five years has this game gone over 41 points, and that was 48 last year.

 
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