What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (15 Viewers)

Do you guys actually watch games like this? I either follow online or watch it with no sound (while still on the computer).

I had the sound on for about 5 mins and Jaws/Gruden were complimenting these players and teams like they were the '85 Bears.

 
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
If this 13 holds what's the 2h total going to be? 17.5?
Click to expand...
Dude, just get a good night's sleep. It's foolish betting hard-earned money on this garbage.
Click to expand...
I got money on the under and I'm trying to figure how I'm going to play it. I'm not going to loose any sleep I promise you.
Click to expand...
Sit on your under bet. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Put half on the over 17.5 as insurance and to play for a wide middle.
Click to expand...
What's the game total?
Click to expand...
39.5 and 41.5 (live betting)
 
'Raider Nation said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Four days, 15 hours and 55 minutes until bowl season kicks off. :excited: :banned:
Click to expand...
I'm really leaning on you the entire three weeks. I lose a FORTUNE annually on Bowl games.
Click to expand...
If not for a HUGE bet on War Eagle last year, I would have lost ten units. Unfortunately being good at regular season CFB doesn't always translate to bowl games (in fact it rarely does).Have to get BRONG's opinion on the Wyoming/Temple game and am still trying to figure out what kind of team ULL is before these Saturday games. Big fan of the Ohio/Utah State over, that is the only one I have locked in for the weekend. Also a fan of the USC/Nebraska under, a multi-unit play for me.
 
OK. Relax and gather oneself. 6 points in the 4th quarter to cover teaser O31. Feel like I might be asking alot the way this one is going. :bag:

 
'MarshallPlan said:
Do you guys actually watch games like this? I either follow online or watch it with no sound (while still on the computer). I had the sound on for about 5 mins and Jaws/Gruden were complimenting these players and teams like they were the '85 Bears.
Click to expand...
You're exaggerating more than they did. Besides, it's their job. And going into half, they were flat-out saying how ugly the football was."Guys, coming to you from Seattle tonight, please turn the channel now. Thanks, and have a good night with the Kardashians".I for one, am enjoying this; it's still football.
 
'mquinnjr said:
OK. Relax and gather oneself. 6 points in the 4th quarter to cover teaser O31. Feel like I might be asking alot the way this one is going. :bag:
Click to expand...
Lot of money rolled in on the over 7 4Q, but I dont know how much of that was insurance/middle money. Anything between 5 and 12 points would just make this weekend complete.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'mquinnjr said:
'The Ref said:
'mquinnjr said:
OK. Relax and gather oneself. 6 points in the 4th quarter to cover teaser O31. Feel like I might be asking alot the way this one is going. :bag:
Click to expand...
Lot of money rolled in on the over 7 4Q, but I dont know how much of that was insurance/middle money. Anything between 5 and 12 points would just make this weekend complete.
Click to expand...
1 more FG. :football:
Click to expand...
Fine by me. Rams need three scores so they would have to kick it if they got in fourth and long.
 
So the book said that was his worst week. EVER. And catching up in here just now, yesterday was an orgy, so that jibes with what he was saying.

I bet things reverse this week, right as bowl season hits. Probly great week to go contrarian.

I would be careful to not give it all back, playing with house money.

 
Brandon F*****g Lloyd! Thank you, sweet prince, for putting the Rams into FG range.

Bradford, you make it onto my "People to Kill On-Site" list if you effed this up into a turnover at the goal line after the commercial break.

 
'Raider Nation said:
'mquinnjr said:
'The Ref said:
'mquinnjr said:
OK. Relax and gather oneself. 6 points in the 4th quarter to cover teaser O31. Feel like I might be asking alot the way this one is going. :bag:
Click to expand...
Lot of money rolled in on the over 7 4Q, but I dont know how much of that was insurance/middle money. Anything between 5 and 12 points would just make this weekend complete.
Click to expand...
1 more FG. :football:
Click to expand...
One small problem: neither team will kick another FG.
Click to expand...
he he he...... Ref bailed us out.... maybe
 
I may be overthinking this, but won't Temple have some issues playing the game at elevation? Wyoming plays all their games in the mountains, I think this might be a factor to consider. I am leaning to Temple, but Wyoming seems like they might have some regional advantages here.

I do think I like the under though. Temple's defense is actually one of the best in the country (at least as far as mid majors).

 
'The Ref said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
If this 13 holds what's the 2h total going to be? 17.5?
Click to expand...
Dude, just get a good night's sleep. It's foolish betting hard-earned money on this garbage.
Click to expand...
I got money on the under and I'm trying to figure how I'm going to play it. I'm not going to loose any sleep I promise you.
Click to expand...
Sit on your under bet. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Put half on the over 17.5 as insurance and to play for a wide middle.
Click to expand...
:hot: :rant: :X At least I laid off half.
 
Spagnolly, nice coaching guy. You are 6 inches from the goal line and you throw the ball twice with your gimpy, not-sharp QB. Until Steven Jackson has to yell at you to pull your head out of your ###.

Then, because you don't have the right system in place on how to challenge (welcome to 2012, genius), you throw away a TO. If that's not enough, you take advice from your kicker.

:lmao: I love it. Another great night in the Wagering Thread, boys. :banned:

 
Ok serious question here. Are the Packers going to win the SB? Whats the best way to play it? Packers +150?

I'm starting to think that +150 isn't all that bad a price considering how good they look.

 
'The Ref said:
Ok serious question here. Are the Packers going to win the SB? Whats the best way to play it? Packers +150? I'm starting to think that +150 isn't all that bad a price considering how good they look.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't touch it until I'm positive Jennings will be back. He's their second-best offensive player.
 
'The Ref said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
If this 13 holds what's the 2h total going to be? 17.5?
Click to expand...
Dude, just get a good night's sleep. It's foolish betting hard-earned money on this garbage.
Click to expand...
I got money on the under and I'm trying to figure how I'm going to play it. I'm not going to loose any sleep I promise you.
Click to expand...
I know I am relatively new here, but when I play NFL unders I always play them for the 1st half. When I play overs, I play the full game.I've never understood why Vegas doesn't make an adjustment to 1st half NFL totals. For example, if you bet CBB totals, they are typically = full game total x 50% - 5 pts. A big reason is late game intentional free throws. Maybe someone knows here for NFL.The biggest factor I consider is that defensive lines wear down. A good pass rush can stop the run and mask weak secondaries. When they tire late in the game, it opens up running lanes, tackles are missed, and QBs have a lot more time. If you are like a Detroit, it really exposes their weak secondary when their pass rush begins to soften.Other factors include overtime and when a team is down, hurry up offenses for teams who normally don't, and going for TDs/4th downs when they normally don't. You also see teams happy to go into the locker room up/down X points like they did tonight in the 1st half. They were ready to mail it in after the Lynch fumble. I've never thought of a good reason to bet a full game NFL under when the 1st half is available. Yes, the occasional special teams TD/defensive TD screws you over, but that's rare enough. I don't have full historical data because I don't have easy access to a database with the actual halftime scores, but for my bets, I've won more betting 1st half unders than if I would have bet that same game full game under.Just my 2c. :nerd:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'tjnc09 said:
'The Ref said:
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
If this 13 holds what's the 2h total going to be? 17.5?
Click to expand...
Dude, just get a good night's sleep. It's foolish betting hard-earned money on this garbage.
Click to expand...
I got money on the under and I'm trying to figure how I'm going to play it. I'm not going to loose any sleep I promise you.
Click to expand...
I know I am relatively new here, but when I play NFL unders I always play them for the 1st half. When I play overs, I play the full game.I've never understood why Vegas doesn't make an adjustment to 1st half NFL totals. For example, if you bet CBB totals, they are typically = full game total x 50% - 5 pts. A big reason is late game intentional free throws. Maybe someone knows here for NFL.The biggest factor I consider is that defensive lines wear down. A good pass rush can stop the run and mask weak secondaries. When they tire late in the game, it opens up running lanes, tackles are missed, and QBs have a lot more time. If you are like a Detroit, it really exposes their weak secondary when their pass rush begins to soften.Other factors include overtime and when a team is down, hurry up offenses for teams who normally don't, and going for TDs/4th downs when they normally don't. You also see teams happy to go into the locker room up/down X points like they did tonight in the 1st half. They were ready to mail it in after the Lynch fumble. I've never thought of a good reason to bet a full game NFL under when the 1st half is available. Yes, the occasional special teams TD/defensive TD screws you over, but that's rare enough. I don't have full historical data because I don't have easy access to a database with the actual halftime scores, but for my bets, I've won more betting 1st half unders than if I would have bet that same game full game under.Just my 2c. :nerd:
Click to expand...
The books know all this too. I'm not disagreeing with your thoughts but making a halftime line for football is completely different than for basketball. Basketball has distributed scoring, football is 7's and 3's, you can't just cut a number in half and subtract like in basketball.
 
Any early leans on the Bowls? I'm in a net points office pool. You take a team with the spread and you accrue the points you win/lose. So you not only want winners, you want big winners. Must pick 20 out of 35 bowls. A lot of times the key is to pick the early bowl games correctly with a blowout. Also, the line is set, anybody see a line they think will move in the next couple weeks?

My early leans

Temple -7 (Think Temple is better-coached and has a better defense)

FIU - 4.5 (Really just fading Marshall)

TCU - 10.5 (Horned Frogs not adverse to put 50 on the board)

FSU -3 (Really just fading ND)

Ohio St +2 - Gators had to beat Furman (barely) to be bowl-eligible

UGA -4 - Dawgs have plenty of speed and a good QB

ORE -6 - If Ducks can contain Ball (easier said then done) and turn it into a track meet, could be sizable win.

 
'Raider Nation said:
'The Ref said:
Ok serious question here. Are the Packers going to win the SB? Whats the best way to play it? Packers +150? I'm starting to think that +150 isn't all that bad a price considering how good they look.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't touch it until I'm positive Jennings will be back. He's their second-best offensive player.
Click to expand...
Jennings only out 2-3 weeks - he will be fine for GB's first playoff game.
 
'Raider Nation said:
If you blindly bet every NFL underdog this year, you'd be rolling in it.NFL pups are 296-139 ATS = 68.05%
Click to expand...
I'm sure I am just in the wrong spot or reading something wrong - but the covers.com link you gave has the dogs ATS at 101-99-8 (50.5%). Are you finding this info somewhere else?
 
Math in a gambling thread.

13 weeks of games for each team. 16 games a week. 208 possible games to bet on in the regular season.

Even for a complete year including pre-season you can only get to 320 possible games. 296+139 = 435.

???

 
Hockey tonight:

Wings/Pens U 5.5 -115

Pens are without their top three offensive players, are at home and will play this close to the vest.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
Texas floods
2
Replies
59
Views
3K
fatness
fatness
scorchy
Any banking guys that can offer solutions to a vexing issue?
Replies
31
Views
544
Mrs. Rannous
Mrs. Rannous
BLOCKED_PUNT
list index
Replies
16
Views
630
El Floppo
El Floppo

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 12 (members: 0, guests: 12)
Back
Top