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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

-So Air Force is a yard short.

-Wyoming scores a meaningless TD with 5 seconds left for one over, then gets the two pointer for the other over after the first attempt was incomplete but PI was called

-Tulsa muffs a punt, misses a FG because their QB gave a ten yard sack and then let BYU take it right down the field with 4 minutes left.

No use handicapping these games, it's all luck.

 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'nittanylion said:
Marcus Coker is Iowa's 1st-string RB (281/1384/15 + 21/157/0). A very respectable season, if you just look at the statistics in a vacuum. Two things inside the #'s : his 4.9 yards-per-carry average isn't special in comparison to other RB's who got the lions share of carries for their teams. Also, the combined average yards per carry given up by the opponents he faced was only 4.9 as well - meaning that Coker performed at a very average level given the quality of the defenses he faced. Yes, he put up a gaudy statistical season, but a truly special back, a difference maker, would have had a ypc average higher than the average ypr given up by his opponents. That's a very solid statistical key on which to 'true up' stats vs situations, which is a pretty valid predictor of impact and future performance.

Second, Iowa, especially under Ferentz, traditionally recruits and signs very solid RB's, carries a nice stable, and works to develop a succession plan at the position to offset injury/suspensions, early outs and graduations. Although relatively untested, its very reasonable to assume, given their history, that Coker's backups are solid enough to approximate Coker's production (which, when evaluated in relation to the rushing defenses he faced, was pretty much the definition of average) when given the opportunity.

So that's why I think Coker's absence, due to suspension, is over-rated in terms of it's impact on the game.
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Dunno, Coker was an absolute horse throughout the season and there are some pretty impressive games in here. Iowa's #2 and #3 RBs had 29 combined carries all year and 17 of them came in the opener vs Tennessee Tech. That tells me that neither was ready to play because in college football, you play every RB who is talented and ready for the chance.
2011 Game Log Rushing ReceivingDATE OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD9/3 Tennessee Tech W 34-7 11 41 3.7 8 0 2 19 9.5 13 09/10 @Iowa State L 44-41 35 140 4.0 18 2 2 4 2.0 4 09/17 Pittsburgh W 31-27 23 86 3.7 14 0 5 15 3.0 9 09/24 Louisiana-MonroeW 45-17 18 113 6.3 26 2 2 18 9.0 16 010/8 @Penn State L 13-3 18 74 4.1 16 0 3 23 7.7 13 010/15 Northwestern W 41-31 22 124 5.6 25 2 1 15 15.0 15 010/22 Indiana W 45-24 23 139 6.0 41 2 0 0 0.0 0 010/29 @Minnesota L 22-21 32 252 7.9 50 2 0 0 0.0 0 011/5 Michigan W 24-16 29 132 4.6 27 2 0 0 0.0 0 011/12 Michigan State L 37-21 21 57 2.7 11 1 3 24 8.0 13 011/19 @Purdue W 31-21 31 139 4.5 14 1 0 0 0.0 0 011/25 @Nebraska L 20-7 18 87 4.8 15 1 3 39 13.0 19 0Jaz Reynolds will be missed on the OU side but I will again say that it isn't a huge loss. OU's deepest team position is WR and Trey Franks and Kameel Jackson along with senior Dejuan Miller will pick up the slack. Broyles is the all-time FBS receptions leader, he's obviously a big loss but they played without him the last four games and have had a month to craft a gameplan without him. I am leaning under more and more in this game, can't believe as an OU fan I'd be considering an under 58 with a QB who is going to be a top 15 NFL pick. But Landry is inaccurate and losing Whaley has meant they depend more on the pass. Sooners also missing Brandon Williams who would supplant Clay as the Sooners #3 option next year behind Whaley and Finch (Clay is #2 tonight). OU's defense has something to prove and Stoops is playing his alma mater so I don't think OU will ghost this game, especially considering recent bowl performances. I think +14 is a solid play though by the numbers, but I also think it is a bit of a trap. Iowa TT under 21.5 or the game under seem like better plays IMO.
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It is just silly to assume, or especially place a bet, primarily on the opinion that Ferentz probably has depth at the rb position. Especially, when he rarely allowed that depth to even sniff the field this year. 1400 yards and 15 td's is impressive, period. Ray Rice and Arian Foster are producing near the NFL average at 4.4 ypc, Marshawn Lynch under the average at 4.2. Based on your rationale on Coker, do you consider Foster and Rice as average rb's and Marshawn Lynch below average? This isn't like the QB position where teams generally go with 1 guy. If Johnson was anywhere near ready to contribue even remotely on the level of Coker, he would have had more than the 17 carries to Coker's 281. Johnson didn't even touch the field in 8 games. I have also read that White may draw the start...the guy has a whopping 3 carries under his belt. I am not saying that Iowa is the wrong side, but I am saying that using reasoning like this to place a bet is similar to the Joe Bergeron reasoning with Texas, completely off base. Hopefully the end result is the same. As always, best of luck with your bet!
 
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In the spirit of collaboration:

I am

8-2 on sides this bowl season

2-6-1 on totals

0-3 on ML

Down less than a unit overall but those backdoors have cost me really big, a 4+ unit swing.

That said, fade all my total plays with extreme confidence. :thumbup:

 
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Why do I feel like that snake that took on the honey badger?

Licking my wounds after that debacle, piling on what looked like the better team. Had one play live betting on byu +10.5 for a unit. Lost about 7 on tulsa. They were the better team, we were all right. Punter did us in, how often can you say that(sean landeta).

 
'Doctor Detroit said:
In the spirit of collaboration:I am 8-2 on sides this bowl season2-6-1 on totals0-3 on MLDown less than a unit overall but those backdoors have cost me really big, a 4+ unit swing. That said, fade all my total plays with extreme confidence. :thumbup:
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8 unit swing. Good thing I no longer have to balance my checkbook. :bag:
 
I ####### hate betting on college football. Pretty sure I've never had a winning day, week, season, year or decade.

Would rather spend time trying to handicap the number of cocks my ex wife sucked while we were married.

 
MSU -7 1u

Iowa -14 1u

Action Parlay

MSU -7, MSU u49, Iowa +14 1u to win 6u (I'm clearing chasing a losing day here, but I'll be up all night drinking, so WTF)

 
Playing small .5U on the dogs tonight in UFC, feel if 1 hits I'll be near even out of these four, make the fights a little more interesting.

Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko +250

Johny Hendricks +175

Nate Diaz +200

Brock Lesnar +115

:boxing:

 
Can I bet any of these ####ty props tonight?

Landry Jones over 349.5 yards

Landry Jones over 28.5 completions

McNutt 6.5 catches

Stills 6 catches

I dont like a side and I have sucked on totals today.

 
'derek245583 said:
Can I bet any of these ####ty props tonight?

Landry Jones over 349.5 yards

Landry Jones over 28.5 completions

McNutt 6.5 catches

Stills 6 catches

I dont like a side and I have sucked on totals today.
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NcNutt is the Truth, but 6.5 is alot of catches considering they will key on him.
 
Is there a comprehensive article somewhere detailing which NFL teams are "motivated" to play this week?

Week 17's can often be a goldmine if you find the inspired team vs. the team that already has the bus started.

 
'Raider Nation said:
Is there a comprehensive article somewhere detailing which NFL teams are "motivated" to play this week?Week 17's can often be a goldmine if you find the inspired team vs. the team that already has the bus started.
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Simmons article on grantland actually gives a pretty good idea
 
Tomorrow is a pretty dreadful slate of games. Here is what I'm

thinking for Monday's games. Lemme know if any are ill-advised plays.

Houston -7 vs. Penn State

Have you SEEN Penn State's offense? And the game is in Dallas.

=====

Georgia -3.5 vs. Michigan State

75% home crowd (?) for UGA in Tampa, and I think they're just better.

=====

Oregon -6 vs. WISC

SPEED, and too much of it.

=====

Stanford/OK State under 73.5

I know the Pokes offense is a machine, but Luck will have them seated most of the day.

 
'cstu said:
Thoughts on this teaser:Falcons -4.5 vs. BucsBroncos +4 vs. ChiefsPatriots -3 vs. Bills
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If the Lions beat the Packers at 1:00, Atlanta has absolutely nothing to play for at 4:00. And they certainly won't want any of their stars to get hurt, as they would have to head right back to New Orleans next week.
 
Throwing some of the UFC winnings onto a CFB teaser tomorrow. I know, never tease CFB. The lines have been so sharp lately, I'm feeling good about taking a chance for a small stake.

Utah +8

Vanderbilt +4½

Illinois +3

Virginia +9

 
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