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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Will either player celebrate by putting a shrimp on a barbie?

A player will celebrate by putting a shrimp on a barbie -155

A player will not celebrate by putting a shrimp on a barbie -105

 
'tjnc09 said:
'gussy said:
'gussy said:
Terrible day yesterday, but it seems like there were a lot of people wrong.Either way, haven't had much feel lately so I'm backing off a little on theunit side. 3 1/2 unit plays tonight:Loyola, MD -2 1/2-WINMarist +8 1/2-LOSSManhatten -10-WIN2012 Posted PicksCBB-54-45-1 (54.5%)NFL-4-0NBA-5-5-1CFB-1-0NHL-8-3
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.One of the gambling websites I go to confirmed today what I was alluding to yesterday when I said I don't have much of a feel lately. They said that it just feels like Vegas is really close on all of these spreads lately and he advises going smaller units until we get to the tournament which I will most likely be doing at this point. I will be playing 1/2 (or full for most of you degens) units going forward unless I otherwise note it.
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I don't know if it's "lately" - rather, all season. I've used a system watching line movements for a while too similar to bmj (and you), and in the past it has worked out well.I know GooRoo alluded to it in one post where he asked what happens if another reverse line movement comes in the opposite direction? Maybe it's my imagination, but it seems like that is happening more often than it ever has for me. If this is true, this could absolutely be a result of more efficient lines and sharks having to find smaller margins to bet on. If you have a very inefficient line, obviously the sharks will continue to move it in one direction because they see the same thing. IF the lines are sharper, the margins will have a greater chance on being on either side of the line. I normally don't play my picks until right before tip (which I do disagree with how you and bmj post) and there seems to be an overwhelming amount of picks I have that reverse 4 or 5 minutes before tip (as I am making the play too). I know for a fact that totals have been cleaned up tremendously. I was excited about Kurt's site having them, but haven't had many total plays at all this year.
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CBB lines typically get sharper when conference season arrives. IMO stil softer than any other major market lines but not as easy as Nov-Dec CBB lines.
 
'MarshallPlan said:
'lumpy19 said:
'MarshallPlan said:
'lumpy19 said:
I'm taking the +180 available now at bookmaker that the giants kickoff first, this moved too much.
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I just took +175, I agree this moved too much. We need the Gmen to win the toss though.
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bookmaker has moved all the way to +245 on this
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I just bet some more at +250, this is starting to go back down. Don't have a lot on it, but I think it's a very solid bet at +250. Pats will 100% kickoff so we lose this half the time right away. Gmen are 50/50 to me, so that puts us at +200. +250 has to be at worst breakeven. NYG did win the toss the last super bowl and they took the ball, so that worries me.
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Keep pounding away at +250 and then bet NE to win the toss at -101
 
'lumpy19 said:
'Raider Nation said:
lumpy!

:excited:

Can I punch out now?
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Yes, get some rest, I need you at full capacity for the over I bet in the pro bowl
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Funny you should mention that. I might have a better play. NFC -4.Hear me out.

The over in recent years has been in the mid-60s. Still some value at that number. Now, it's 74. That's pushing it. Only three times in the past 11 Pro Bowls have they hit 74 points. Not to mention that rain is expected.

Now look at the rosters. http://www.nfl.com/probowl/story/09000d5d82578253/article/2012-pro-bowl-rosters

I almost NEVER play a side in the Pro Bowl, but the NFC has the AFC crushed at every skill position. And even when Rodgers and Brees aren't in the game, who the hell is going to tackle Newton when he starts to run wild?

Rivers is the only AFC QB to worry about. Ben won't take any risks with that leg, and Dalton is Dalton.

:shrug:

 
Michigan +14 at Ohio State - This team/coaching match up rarely produces a 15 point + victory for either side. Michigan has been horrible on the road overall, but 14 is too high, this should be OSU -10.
 
'Pumpnick said:
anyone on team chara? Looks like the better team to me :shrug:
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:goodposting: Anything can happen, but I watched the draft and Alfredsson and Lundqvist kept on taking OTT, Swedish and even NYR Girardi before much better offensive players were taken. Giardi over Campbell for FLA is an AS game? Come on.I put 4U on Chara.
 
Wow - 19.5 Goals as the total in the NHL all star game?

:lmao:

Thats like a 136.5 total in a Football game.

I cant take the over..... but no way in hell I take the under.

 
'Garrett said:
Michigan +14 at Ohio State - This team/coaching match up rarely produces a 15 point + victory for either side. Michigan has been horrible on the road overall, but 14 is too high, this should be OSU -10.
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That shot with 22 seconds left was a f'ing dagger. :kicksrock:

 
'The Ref said:
Wow - 19.5 Goals as the total in the NHL all star game? :lmao: Thats like a 136.5 total in a Football game.I cant take the over..... but no way in hell I take the under.
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As crazy as it sounds the over seems to be the play. Since the lockout the total goals for all star games have been 21, 15, 23 and 21.
 
'Raider Nation said:
'lumpy19 said:
'Raider Nation said:
lumpy!

:excited:

Can I punch out now?
Click to expand...
Yes, get some rest, I need you at full capacity for the over I bet in the pro bowl
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Funny you should mention that. I might have a better play. NFC -4.Hear me out.

The over in recent years has been in the mid-60s. Still some value at that number. Now, it's 74. That's pushing it. Only three times in the past 11 Pro Bowls have they hit 74 points. Not to mention that rain is expected.

Now look at the rosters. http://www.nfl.com/probowl/story/09000d5d82578253/article/2012-pro-bowl-rosters

I almost NEVER play a side in the Pro Bowl, but the NFC has the AFC crushed at every skill position. And even when Rodgers and Brees aren't in the game, who the hell is going to tackle Newton when he starts to run wild?

Rivers is the only AFC QB to worry about. Ben won't take any risks with that leg, and Dalton is Dalton.

:shrug:
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Now 5.5 ...Just sayin'.

 
Iowa at Indiana UNDER 150.5 - This isn't the SEC and Indiana's defense has been better recently. 150.5 is an overreaction to the last few games from both teams.

 
On NFC, at -5...given the prohibitive rules placed on the defenses, there's already a big margin between NFC (Rodgers, Brees, Newton) and AFC (Ben, Rivers, Dalton)...I'm going to play the angle that the reduced pressure doesn't lessen the gap, but rather widens it, in the sense that it cheapens the value of the Revis/Bailey led AFC DB's.

Tailing on the Hawks as well, just to have something to play.

 
Two team 6 point teaser...

Select #1 : NFL Football for Game

AFC 1/29/2012 4:00 PM - (PST)

Spread +11½ for Game

Select #2 : NFL Football for Game

New York Giants 2/5/2012 3:30 PM - (PST)

Spread +9 for Game

 
The Beavers/Ducks total went from 154 overnight to 151 now.

Do we ride the wave and play the under here? Big rivalry... lots of nerves, etc.

 
The NBA game that just finished(closing lines)

Miami TT 97.5

Chi TT 93.5

Game Total 191

Miami -4.5

Final score Miami 97 - Chi 93 :tinfoilhat:

 
'lumpy19 said:
The NBA game that just finished(closing lines)Miami TT 97.5Chi TT 93.5Game Total 191Miami -4.5Final score Miami 97 - Chi 93 :tinfoilhat:
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How about Montana -3 against Portland State...Montana was up 64-53 with 3:02 remaining.They win 69-67. Four turnovers and four missed FTs in the last three minutes.
 
And speaking of Tennis, you would not believe what just happened on 18 at Torrey Pines. Dude had a meltdown and blew a 3-shot lead. They're now in sudden death or whatever. Great drama still going on...tune in.

 
'BRONG said:
And speaking of Tennis, you would not believe what just happened on 18 at Torrey Pines. Dude had a meltdown and blew a 3-shot lead. They're now in sudden death or whatever. Great drama still going on...tune in.
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What an approach from Sneddy out of a divot.Stanley has to chip it down the hill towards the water, should be fun.
 
'derek245583 said:
'BRONG said:
And speaking of Tennis, you would not believe what just happened on 18 at Torrey Pines. Dude had a meltdown and blew a 3-shot lead. They're now in sudden death or whatever. Great drama still going on...tune in.
Click to expand...
What an approach from Sneddy out of a divot.Stanley has to chip it down the hill towards the water, should be fun.
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AND WE MOVE ON (to 16).Great chip there. Glad they both made those testers there.That was where Tiger made that long putt to tie Rocko and end up winning his last major in an 18-hole playoff. Stanley got so screwed on his first approach on 18 today, did you see that? Too much spin and it ended up rolling off the green and somehow kept going to the water. Looked like it was going to stop, not once, but twice. Then the meltdown. Poor guy didn't deserve that. Hope he wins it.
 
'BRONG said:
'derek245583 said:
'BRONG said:
And speaking of Tennis, you would not believe what just happened on 18 at Torrey Pines. Dude had a meltdown and blew a 3-shot lead. They're now in sudden death or whatever. Great drama still going on...tune in.
Click to expand...
What an approach from Sneddy out of a divot.Stanley has to chip it down the hill towards the water, should be fun.
Click to expand...
AND WE MOVE ON (to 16).Great chip there. Glad they both made those testers there.That was where Tiger made that long putt to tie Rocko and end up winning his last major in an 18-hole playoff. Stanley got so screwed on his first approach on 18 today, did you see that? Too much spin and it ended up rolling off the green and somehow kept going to the water. Looked like it was going to stop, not once, but twice. Then the meltdown. Poor guy didn't deserve that. Hope he wins it.
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Ya, same hole different pin for the Tiger putt.Kyle Stanley has no career wins...still...its tough to get that first one. Good player though, finished solo 2nd one time last year I believe.
 
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