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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

MP's annual play every prop in the world is making my head hurt. Anyone got anything for TONIGHT?

I'm done capping College Ball - little pricks cost me too much money.

 
'MarshallPlan said:
'lumpy19 said:
'MarshallPlan said:
All the Gronk numbers are off the board everywhere. I just bet these with my one local book who has them up, sportsbook still up. Worst case I have 50/50 bets. I still have him for MVP at 20:1 as a mini-hedge:Un 6.5 rec -150Un 81.5 yds -120Un 22.5 longest rec -115Un 9.5 1st rec +105 (smallest bet)
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Is there news that I'm missing?
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No I thought it was important pinny and Greek took his numbers down.
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I agree with that but can't find any news anywhere. I've faded him in every prop I can find already anyway but I would like to know what's going on.
 
'lumpy19 said:
'MarshallPlan said:
'lumpy19 said:
'MarshallPlan said:
All the Gronk numbers are off the board everywhere. I just bet these with my one local book who has them up, sportsbook still up. Worst case I have 50/50 bets. I still have him for MVP at 20:1 as a mini-hedge:Un 6.5 rec -150Un 81.5 yds -120Un 22.5 longest rec -115Un 9.5 1st rec +105 (smallest bet)
Click to expand...
Is there news that I'm missing?
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No I thought it was important pinny and Greek took his numbers down.
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I agree with that but can't find any news anywhere. I've faded him in every prop I can find already anyway but I would like to know what's going on.
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I faded him too. I don't think there's much to know right now. He hasn't practiced, but the boot is off. We'll hopefully know more in the next few days, obviously. New England is notoriously hush-hush on the injury front. If he does have a high ankle sprain, there is no way he's 100% by game time. That's not to say they can't shoot him up, wrap it, and re-wrap it during the game. If he goes off for 8/125/2 in this game, I'll be stunned and tip my cap.
 
'Man In The Box said:
Chad OchoCincoWill he have at least 1 reception- Must playYes +105No -135 :unsure:
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I am happy you posted this. One thing I day dream about is if Gronk is out that #85 has a big day. Not sure why I think this because he has been so out of sight all year and was inactive for a playoff game.It would be just like a bill b. thing to let a veteran who is playing in his last game whose father just died make a difference in the super bowl.
 
Passing this along from Rotoworld for those of you trying to figure out number of players having carries for NE:

Stevan Ridley has been informed that he will be active for the Super Bowl.

Ridley was a healthy scratch against the Ravens after fumbling in Week 17 and again in the Divisional round versus the Broncos. "This game I'm gonna be dressed and out on the field,"

 
Just a PSA for anyone who is going to bet MVP. Remember that Tom Brady still has a huge issue with cadalac who is the sponsor of the MVP award. It was widely speculated that it was impossible for Brady to win MVP of the Philly SB because of this rift and they ended up awarding it to Branch.

 
'The Ref said:
'Man In The Box said:
Chad OchoCincoWill he have at least 1 reception- Must playYes +105No -135 :unsure:
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I am happy you posted this. One thing I day dream about is if Gronk is out that #85 has a big day. Not sure why I think this because he has been so out of sight all year and was inactive for a playoff game.It would be just like a bill b. thing to let a veteran who is playing in his last game whose father just died make a difference in the super bowl.
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I agree. Although, the biggest reason I'm leaning towards betting Yes on this is that when he's been active, he usually makes a catch. Seems like it's low risk and a good # since it will be graded as no action if he's inactive.
 
Another one I like is that they'll re-wrap GRONK's ankle before half...with red tape. New England likes to use team colors and I have footage of them getting away from that last time against the Giants, they used white. I show them using red against the Rams in '02 and expect they'll get back to that. Max'd it at +220 at the greek and +245' at pinny but it's off the board now at both. Still see it up on sportsbook at +135, which is still a play imo, but a 50 limit. {/Marshall Plan}

 
'BRONG said:
Another one I like is that they'll re-wrap GRONK's ankle before half...with red tape. New England likes to use team colors and I have footage of them getting away from that last time against the Giants, they used white. I show them using red against the Rams in '02 and expect they'll get back to that. Max'd it at +220 at the greek and +245' at pinny but it's off the board now at both. Still see it up on sportsbook at +135, which is still a play imo, but a 50 limit. {/Marshall Plan}
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:lmao:
 
'BRONG said:
Another one I like is that they'll re-wrap GRONK's ankle before half...with red tape. New England likes to use team colors and I have footage of them getting away from that last time against the Giants, they used white. I show them using red against the Rams in '02 and expect they'll get back to that. Max'd it at +220 at the greek and +245' at pinny but it's off the board now at both. Still see it up on sportsbook at +135, which is still a play imo, but a 50 limit. {/Marshall Plan}
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middle the #### out of that one.
 
NBA

DET +9 NY 1-9 ATS as fave. 1U

DEN -1 7-3 SU on road. Mem not shooting well right now. 2U

SAC/GS O199 Two bad D's GS shooting well 2U

added 4pt tease parlay on above for 1.5U

 
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'Man In The Box said:
I faded him too. I don't think there's much to know right now. He hasn't practiced, but the boot is off. We'll hopefully know more in the next few days, obviously. New England is notoriously hush-hush on the injury front. If he does have a high ankle sprain, there is no way he's 100% by game time. That's not to say they can't shoot him up, wrap it, and re-wrap it during the game. If he goes off for 8/125/2 in this game, I'll be stunned and tip my cap.
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What do they shoot up on a high ankle sprain? I'm no doctor, what can they inject for that injury?
 
In case anyone was wondering, Sportsbook made good giving me the $50 and threw in an extra $20. I had told them I was going to let it go after getting the same answer 5 times from 4 different people.

 
'lumpy19 said:
'Man In The Box said:
I faded him too. I don't think there's much to know right now. He hasn't practiced, but the boot is off. We'll hopefully know more in the next few days, obviously. New England is notoriously hush-hush on the injury front. If he does have a high ankle sprain, there is no way he's 100% by game time. That's not to say they can't shoot him up, wrap it, and re-wrap it during the game. If he goes off for 8/125/2 in this game, I'll be stunned and tip my cap.
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What do they shoot up on a high ankle sprain? I'm no doctor, what can they inject for that injury?
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Depends. I'm no doctor either. They've probably already injected cortisone if there is any kind of bone bruise. I was more referring to them injecting him with a pain killer on game day.
 
A close friend of mine was an athletic trainer for the Redskins for several years, through Turner, Schottenheimer, Spurrier, Gibbs and Zorn, and continues to privately train about a dozen players currently on the roster...according to him, there's no 'shooting up' a high ankle sprain, because you can take away the pain all you want, but that does nothing to have a positive effect on weak and unstable ligaments. Removing the pain from an injury like that is, if anything, the worst thing you could do, because minus the pain, a player would be encouraged to move on those ligaments in ways that would most likely tear them, and quite possibly result in a more serious injury like a fracture once the ligament support collapses.

Personally, I think it's somewhat of a waste of time, spending time being concerned about Gronkowski's status affecting the outcome of the Super Bowl. Props are a different story, but Gronk being healthy or not, in my opinion, has no effect on how I'm seeing this, handicapping from a statistical analysis standpoint. From my point of view, even with a healthy Gronkowski, the Giants should be favored, and as long as they are a dog of any sort, they're a very solid play, IMO. I have some +3.5, I have some +3, and I have some moneyline, which together amounts to plenty, and if late money comes in on the Pats to move the odds down from -3/-130 and +115, I'll buy even more.

SEC stuff:

lumpy is absolutely right about how much tighter lines get once conference play begins, and it shows in my efforts, which haven't been very successful. However, since falling to 3-9 over the 1st 12 games I wagered, I've gone 6-6 over the last 12, and of my 15 losses, I've been on the right SIDE of 10 betted favorites, as in, the right team won, but not by enough to cover, which keeps me optimistic. Unfortunately, my heavier plays have resulted in a 2-4 record, so looking at things from a blatantly honest point of view, 9-15 overall, which is pretty damn bad, is absolutely worse than it looks...

...but given that recently things are improving, I'm going to keep trying.

Tonight:

7PM: Kentucky (-15.5) vs Tennessee - Money is POURING in on the Vols. I've watched this thing fall a point over the last hour. I think Calipari has finally gotten into the heads of the overwhelmingly talented Wildcats, as seen Saturday in a complete dismantling of LSU. Tennessee is pesky though, and finds a way to keep things close. Still, I'm not betting against Kentucky on their own floor for anything less than a 20 point spread. Better to just stay off, rather than winding up with the right side, wrong cover again. That's getting way too old.

9PM: Vanderbilt (-2) @ Arkansas - I have a love affair with the Razorbacks. That's common knowledge, so I think it says something when I'm actually betting against them, and even moreso when they are playing at home where they're 13-1 on the year. Mike Anderson is a good coach ascending to greatness. This is a scrappy, talented squad, and Bud Walton is a nightmare court to travel to...but Vandy is a deep and talented veteran squad playing at their best right now, and their rotation is an absolute matchup nightmare for the Hogs, especially a vastly improved Festus Ezely in the paint. Getting basically a moneyline here is a steal, I think. The Hogs have some quality wins left in them, but this isn't the night for one of those. I'm pounding this.

Good Luck!

Also banging Michigan State (-1) pretty hard. Illinois doesn't have another Ohio State game in them, methinks. They won't be able to keep up with the Spartans scorers.

Good Luck!!!

 
Devils tie the game with under 1:00 left after the puck took a bad bounce off the boards. LOL.

I'd like to bet my LIFE on the Devils in OT please.

 
'modogg said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Hockey is back! Bet the New York metro area! NJ/NYR U5 -110Islanders +110chalk parlay: Bruins/Flyers/Shartsglllllllllll
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Add Quack +107
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If the Flyers lose this game I will simply weep. they have been in the Winnipeg zone for practically the whole 3rd period
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I played the under in that game then I posted today, "not sure what I was thinking last night on that under." That was a better play than the stupid under in the Rangers game where Lundqvist sat for the first time in four years vs NJ. Like 22 straight starts or something, stupid.
 
This is kind of interesting, a podcast interview with Michael Perry, the GM over at Sportsbook.ag from this week. Notice he says that team to receive the first kickoff opened at +150/-180. OK buddy. :lmao:

My link

 
'Raider Nation said:
Devils tie the game with under 1:00 left after the puck took a bad bounce off the boards. LOL.I'd like to bet my LIFE on the Devils in OT please.
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Wow - and the Devils go on to "shut out" the Rangers for 5 minutes 4-4. I would have sold you my under bet for .10 on the dollar.
 
'Good said:
This is kind of interesting, a podcast interview with Michael Perry, the GM over at Sportsbook.ag from this week. Notice he says that team to receive the first kickoff opened at +150/-180. OK buddy. :lmao:

My link
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Survey Said....

XXX

9) BET ID=374908986

Straight Wager 01/23/12 14:36

105.00 to win 100.00

Result: Pending

Super Bowl XLVI - Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off

Giants Patriots 02/05/12(18:30 ET)

Giants -105

 
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'The Ref said:
'Good said:
This is kind of interesting, a podcast interview with Michael Perry, the GM over at Sportsbook.ag from this week. Notice he says that team to receive the first kickoff opened at +150/-180. OK buddy. :lmao:

My link
Click to expand...
Survey Said....

XXX

9) BET ID=374908986

Straight Wager 01/23/12 14:36

105.00 to win 100.00

Result: Pending

Super Bowl XLVI - Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off

Giants Patriots 02/05/12(18:30 ET)

Giants -105
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:goodposting:
 
for the sake of pondering/discussion:

When Gronkowski returned to the Baltimore game and played injured, what did he do? Did he have any catches?

ETA: nm, found the play by play. no catches in the 4th.

 
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'JerseyToughGuys said:
for the sake of pondering/discussion:When Gronkowski returned to the Baltimore game and played injured, what did he do? Did he have any catches?ETA: nm, found the play by play. no catches in the 4th.
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I want to say no. I'm not positive though. Officially making OchoCinco yes reception +105 a play for 1 unit. I hate the two week wait for this game. 16 ### #### units on this game and it's only Wednesday.
 
'JerseyToughGuys said:
for the sake of pondering/discussion:

When Gronkowski returned to the Baltimore game and played injured, what did he do? Did he have any catches?

ETA: nm, found the play by play. no catches in the 4th.
Click to expand...
Point about this return....during a game with the adrenaline flowing it's much easier to come back into the game than a day or 2 later when you know what the damage is.I have a lot of money wrapped up in anti-gronk props, I really think he's not going to be ready and if he plays he's not going to be effective. The better question at this point is who's going to benefit, NE doesn't have another TE that they can slide into his spot NE roster We're looking at an entirely different offense

 
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'lumpy19 said:
'JerseyToughGuys said:
for the sake of pondering/discussion:

When Gronkowski returned to the Baltimore game and played injured, what did he do? Did he have any catches?

ETA: nm, found the play by play. no catches in the 4th.
Click to expand...
Point about this return....during a game with the adrenaline flowing it's much easier to come back into the game than a day or 2 later when you know what the damage is.I have a lot of money wrapped up in anti-gronk props, I really think he's not going to be ready and if he plays he's not going to be effective. The better question at this point is who's going to benefit, NE doesn't have another TE that they can slide into his spot NE roster We're looking at an entirely different offense
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I figure they are going to shoot him up, run him out there and have him be a decoy for the first few series. Maybe attempt a seem route, but I can't imagine him being a serious Brady target. I think yesterday's "no boot" drama was all just a show.Rothlisburger was a shell of himself when he was battling his ankle injury. And all he had to do was move laterally in the pocket.

Screen passes. I bet that's how they are going to try to fill the void. :shrug:

 
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