Not to take RN's Thunder, but I came across this and know there are a few of us who use this reading:
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 5 After winning Thursday night with their strong opinion on St. Louis as a home underdog vs. Arizona (driving an opening line of +3 down to +1.5 or +1 in a game that would yield a 17-3 outright victory). Sharps are now hoping for similar success with their early action in games for Sunday and Monday. Let's run through what Sharps are thinking about this weekend's action in rotational order.
Note that Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all have byes, so there are only 13 games on the NFL card.
ATLANTA AT WASHINGTON:
The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 52 has been bet down to 51. The team side line of Atlanta -3 has stood solid. We would expect Sharps to fade any public move off that critical number. But this is the kind of game that could divide the public too. Most Sharps would prefer the home dog on principle, but think the number is basically right on the money, barring any sort of surprise injury news over the weekend. Sharps are impressed with both Atlanta as a playoff threat, and with Washington as a dog with upset potential. That all cancels out at this line.
PHILADELPHIA AT PITTSBURGH:
Initial interest on the underdog here as Pittsburgh -4 was bet down to -3.5 There wasn't enough passion to bring the line down to the key number of three, however. Many Sharps had given Philly the best NFC Power Rating when the season was about to begin. Now the team now isn't even the top-rated side in Pennsylvania, with this line opening a point over the standard home field advantage. Sharps did like the Under though, as an opener of 44.5 is down to 43.
GREEN BAY AT INDIANAPOLIS:
This line opened Green Bay by 6.5…which is usually a sign that oddsmakers believe the "sharp" side is going to be the dog, and they're inviting the public to bet the line higher. Instead, Sharps stepped in and took the line to seven. Some of that is probably position-taking from Sharps hoping to buy back on the dog later at a better price, but there is a feeling from some that Green Bay is the much better team, given Indy's overall youth. There's also a contingent of Sharps who are betting the NFC over the AFC because of the relative strength shown thus far in the season (consistent with Philly money vs. Pittsburgh in the game above). The total hasn't drawn much interest yet.
CLEVELAND AT NY GIANTS:
Serious interest on the Browns here. That flies in the face of the NFC/AFC theory, but IS consistent with the general view that the Giants can't be trusted as big home favorites! You'll recall they almost lost outright to Tampa Bay on this field a few weeks ago as favorites of more than a TD. Here the line opened at -10.5, but has been bet down by Sharps to -9 or -8.5. Sharps also like betting rested teams at value prices. Cleveland hasn't played since last Thursday. A lot of good "intangible" reasons to take the dog at a double digit price. Stragglers will have to decide if all the value has been bet out now. No interest yet in the total.
TENNESSEE AT MINNESOTA:
Tennessee earned support at the opener of +6.5, largely because Sharps don't trust the Vikings as favorites, especially here at this price, in what Sharps figure to be a low scoring contest. Sharps generally lean dogwise anyway. Yes, Minnesota has taken out San Francisco and Detroit the last two weeks, but the game stats haven't matched the results. Tennessee is now +5.5. We've also seen a big move on the Under from a total of 45.5 down to 44 or even 43.5. This is an indoor game, so that's based on team matchups (like a new QB for Tennessee) rather than weather. Sharps mostly don't have a lot of respect for either of these offenses right now.
MIAMI AT CINCINNATI:
Miami has impressed in recent weeks, as this opening line of Cincinnati -5.5 was bet all the way down to -3. Normally you only see a move that big when a starting QB or star player is announced as "out." But that's not the case here. Sharps like what they've seen from Miami in terms of their "keeping it close" potential, against the likes of the NY Jets and Arizona the past two weeks, and were happy to grab any points above the field goal. The total has gone up a point from 44 to 45, which suggests good football weather for Sunday in Cincinnati.
BALITMORE AT KANSAS CITY:
Like Green Bay/Kansas City, the opener saw the road team laying -6.5. But, unlike that game, Sharps didn't drive the favorite up. They stepped in tentatively on the home dog to bring the number down to +6. Some of that is from old school guys who love getting points with KC in this stadium, which is always a challenging place to play for the visiting team. Still, Baltimore had extra time to prepare, and Kansas City's home field advantage isn't what it used to be, so some Sharps may be waiting to step in on the Ravens if the line drops any further.
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA:
Not much betting interest on this game either way. The home team is favored by three…and each team has a quarterback who Sharps are questioning right now in terms of having "the right stuff." Enthusiasm is fading for Wilson of Seattle after his struggles thus far, and Cam Newton's engines have cooled off dramatically since 2011. Sharps will fade any public move off the key number Sunday, but that's unlikely to materialize , as these aren't high profile teams in terms of public betting.
CHICAGO AT JACKSONVILLE:
Jacksonville joins the list of home dogs bettors are able to back this week. Sharps liked them at the opener of +5.5. We're now seeing +4.5 in many stores. Some of that is situational: Chicago is a road favorite playing on a short week after a road Monday Night game, historically a bad spot for teams. This line move is likely more anti-Chicago than pro-Jacksonville, as they lost badly last week on this same field.
DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND:
This will likely be the a heaviest bet game in Vegas sportsbooks because Peyton Manning is facing Tom Brady in the showcase matchup of the Sunday slate. We haven't seen much Sharp interest yet, though. New England opened at -6.5 and has stayed there. That suggests that Sharps DON'T like New England. Obviously if Sharps wanted Brady, they would've grabbed him at less than the touchdown . So we likely have the Sharps preferring the dog, but hoping they can get +7 or better on game day after the public steps in. The total is up from 51.5 to 52 or 52.5, suggesting decent game day weather for these two noted passers. Game day may see a tug-of-war between squares on New England -6.5, and Sharps on Denver +7.
BUFFALO AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The old school guys who like to take any double digit dog moved in on Buffalo at +10. We're now seeing +9.5 in most places. It's telling though that the move was only a half a point. This wasn't bandwagon support for the road dog, just line value support from a certain type of Sharp. The total is up a half a point from 44 to 44.5, keyed by the style of game Buffalo has been playing this year. They've had some very high scoring games thanks to a shaky defense and a turnover prone offense.
SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS:
This line opened at New Orleans -3. Sharps hit the favorite hard enough to move off the key number to -3.5 and -4 in some places. We've told you in the past that it takes a lot of interest (read M-O-N-E-Y) to move off a three. Sharps have spoken! Squares won't get to back a popular home favorite at that critical number on game night. Moral of the story - Act quickly if you like a favorite!
HOUSTON AT NY JETS:
Sharps have shown a lot of respect for Houston (particularly when healthy) this year and last, and they've shown a lot of disdain for the Jets. So, it was no surprise at all when this line opened at Houston -7 and got bet up to -8. The opener may have struck some as being high, but oddsmakers have the Texans to be at least 10 points better than the Jets on a neutral field right now…and Sharps had it more like 11 or better based on their quick investments here.
here's to the start of a winning streak!
good luck. i thought it was going to be a 9 point win, so you are already in a pleasant spot with that last score
Remember way way way back in time..... like an hour ago... when I said I neve rbet unders on teams "Like the Ducks"....... you know teams like West Virginia.......1 unit U 73.5
