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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (12 Viewers)

Numbers support:

Vernon Wells no k +140

Votto yes k -220 (slight edge)

mcgehee no run -170

Richard o 5 k's -130

eta:

forgot Cliff Lee o 102.5 pitches
How close were you onDunn U1.5 H -190

Hudson O5.5 K+BB -115

Loney U2.5 H+R+RBI -170

I had McGehee and Richard also...just trying to see where I might be going wrong on some of these...thanks Roo
Didn't get home from work until after 5

so I didn't know what Loney's prop was. u 2.5 against Wainwright sounds great to me. Had Hudson for exactly 6, and I thought I remembered Dunn being 2.5 h, r, rbi, not 1.5 h? I try to stay away from the 2.5's against dangerous hitters like Dunn, Cabrera, Pujols, Howard, etc, even against top flight pitchers, it just takes 1 swing and bullpens often come into play as well. Cliff Lee was a pretty lucky W but look at his pitch counts all season...how was that line 102.5? Vernon Wells doesn't K a whole lot and had 1 k in 26 AB against Guthrie, that was worth a swipe at +140 imo. Great job on those 3 wins!!!
I must have missed this announcement if it was made, but congrats on landing a job GR!!
 
Numbers support:

Vernon Wells no k +140

Votto yes k -220 (slight edge)

mcgehee no run -170

Richard o 5 k's -130

eta:

forgot Cliff Lee o 102.5 pitches
How close were you onDunn U1.5 H -190

Hudson O5.5 K+BB -115

Loney U2.5 H+R+RBI -170

I had McGehee and Richard also...just trying to see where I might be going wrong on some of these...thanks Roo
Didn't get home from work until after 5

so I didn't know what Loney's prop was. u 2.5 against Wainwright sounds great to me. Had Hudson for exactly 6, and I thought I remembered Dunn being 2.5 h, r, rbi, not 1.5 h? I try to stay away from the 2.5's against dangerous hitters like Dunn, Cabrera, Pujols, Howard, etc, even against top flight pitchers, it just takes 1 swing and bullpens often come into play as well. Cliff Lee was a pretty lucky W but look at his pitch counts all season...how was that line 102.5? Vernon Wells doesn't K a whole lot and had 1 k in 26 AB against Guthrie, that was worth a swipe at +140 imo. Great job on those 3 wins!!!
I must have missed this announcement if it was made, but congrats on landing a job GR!!
:thumbup: Thanks Z. No announcements or press releases, been back to the grind for a little over a month. 72 hours in the books last week (salary, not hourly), nearly all on my feet, not much fun. Doesn't leave a whole lot of time (or energy) for gambling, but I'm working, wife is happy at home with our son, that's all I'm concerned about. Looking forward to football!!!!!
 
Numbers support:

Vernon Wells no k +140

Votto yes k -220 (slight edge)

mcgehee no run -170

Richard o 5 k's -130

eta:

forgot Cliff Lee o 102.5 pitches
How close were you onDunn U1.5 H -190

Hudson O5.5 K+BB -115

Loney U2.5 H+R+RBI -170

I had McGehee and Richard also...just trying to see where I might be going wrong on some of these...thanks Roo
Didn't get home from work until after 5

so I didn't know what Loney's prop was. u 2.5 against Wainwright sounds great to me. Had Hudson for exactly 6, and I thought I remembered Dunn being 2.5 h, r, rbi, not 1.5 h? I try to stay away from the 2.5's against dangerous hitters like Dunn, Cabrera, Pujols, Howard, etc, even against top flight pitchers, it just takes 1 swing and bullpens often come into play as well. Cliff Lee was a pretty lucky W but look at his pitch counts all season...how was that line 102.5? Vernon Wells doesn't K a whole lot and had 1 k in 26 AB against Guthrie, that was worth a swipe at +140 imo. Great job on those 3 wins!!!
I must have missed this announcement if it was made, but congrats on landing a job GR!!
:P Thanks Z. No announcements or press releases, been back to the grind for a little over a month. 72 hours in the books last week (salary, not hourly), nearly all on my feet, not much fun. Doesn't leave a whole lot of time (or energy) for gambling, but I'm working, wife is happy at home with our son, that's all I'm concerned about. Looking forward to football!!!!!
Congrats, GR :thumbup:
 
screw the congrats, you better be back for college football!
:useless: wouldn't miss it for anything in the world :thumbup:
I've never had time to be a college football fan, Sundays was always my day. This year I'm trying to be more invovled in college football and it's just sooooo much information and it changes every year. Overwhelming but I got to start somehwere.
I think I actually enjoy watching/betting CFB more than the NFL. Never would have dreamed of making that statement a few years ago. I love when you are correctly dialed in to a CFB over, and neither defense even bothered taking the field. That's the most fun kind of bet to watch in ANY sport IMO.
 
:useless: Thanks Z. No announcements or press releases, been back to the grind for a little over a month. 72 hours in the books last week (salary, not hourly), nearly all on my feet, not much fun. Doesn't leave a whole lot of time (or energy) for gambling, but I'm working, wife is happy at home with our son, that's all I'm concerned about. Looking forward to football!!!!!
Wow, I missed this too. You guys grow up so fast on me! Congrats GB.
 
screw the congrats, you better be back for college football!
:lmao: wouldn't miss it for anything in the world :)
Question, GR.If I sign up for the Super Duper 100 Star Premium CFB/NFL Goo Roo Special this year, what happens if SB cuts my limits like they did with the rest of you? If you feel more comfortable answering this via PM, that's fine.
You can either have your brother/sister/mom/dad/aunt/uncle/cousin/friend(s) sign up for an account to lend you a helping hand or ask me for a refund. All GR premium subscriptions are of the monthly variety, so you, the hard paying customer, are not left holding an empty bag...most subscribers are actually left with a rather full bag :thumbup: :thumbup:
 
screw the congrats, you better be back for college football!
:lmao: wouldn't miss it for anything in the world :)
Question, GR.If I sign up for the Super Duper 100 Star Premium CFB/NFL Goo Roo Special this year, what happens if SB cuts my limits like they did with the rest of you? If you feel more comfortable answering this via PM, that's fine.
You can either have your brother/sister/mom/dad/aunt/uncle/cousin/friend(s) sign up for an account to lend you a helping hand or ask me for a refund. All GR premium subscriptions are of the monthly variety, so you, the hard paying customer, are not left holding an empty bag...most subscribers are actually left with a rather full bag :thumbup: :thumbup:
Niiiice. Is SB the only book I should post up at as far as your props go?
 
I'm going to Vegas for the first time next weekend for my friends 21st. Staying in the Hard Rock and Bellagion, 2 nights, 3 days. Any must sees or must dos?

 
screw the congrats, you better be back for college football!
:lmao: wouldn't miss it for anything in the world :)
Question, GR.If I sign up for the Super Duper 100 Star Premium CFB/NFL Goo Roo Special this year, what happens if SB cuts my limits like they did with the rest of you? If you feel more comfortable answering this via PM, that's fine.
You can either have your brother/sister/mom/dad/aunt/uncle/cousin/friend(s) sign up for an account to lend you a helping hand or ask me for a refund. All GR premium subscriptions are of the monthly variety, so you, the hard paying customer, are not left holding an empty bag...most subscribers are actually left with a rather full bag :thumbup: :thumbup:
Niiiice. Is SB the only book I should post up at as far as your props go?
Somebody with a great knowledge of multiple books like Lump could answer that. Some of my associates are testing the family sites like Logans and Brobury now and I'm gathering information. 95% of my wagers are at SB, the other 5% sprinkled over Greek and Bodog.
 
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Somebody with a great knowledge of multiple books like Lump could answer that. Some of my associates are testing the family sites like Logans and Brobury now and I'm gathering information. 95% of my wagers are at SB, the other 5% sprinkled over Greek and Bodog.
Are you still in action at SB only because of alias accounts?
 
I'm going to Vegas for the first time next weekend for my friends 21st. Staying in the Hard Rock and Bellagion, 2 nights, 3 days. Any must sees or must dos?
I've been a few times. Once was with the ball and chain, and we saw shows and crap. :thumbup:I had my most fun when I went solo and met a buddy of mine who lives south of Los Angeles. We spent the whole week walking/driving up and down the strip in search of the best lines and the best steaks.Have fun. :thumbup:
 
Somebody with a great knowledge of multiple books like Lump could answer that. Some of my associates are testing the family sites like Logans and Brobury now and I'm gathering information. 95% of my wagers are at SB, the other 5% sprinkled over Greek and Bodog.
Are you still in action at SB only because of alias accounts?
I'm sure alias accounts are strictly prohibited, I would never try such a thing. I've taught the magical formula to a relative instead and he places wagers on my behalf :lmao:
 
screw the congrats, you better be back for college football!
:lmao: wouldn't miss it for anything in the world :lmao:
Question, GR.If I sign up for the Super Duper 100 Star Premium CFB/NFL Goo Roo Special this year, what happens if SB cuts my limits like they did with the rest of you? If you feel more comfortable answering this via PM, that's fine.
You can either have your brother/sister/mom/dad/aunt/uncle/cousin/friend(s) sign up for an account to lend you a helping hand or ask me for a refund. All GR premium subscriptions are of the monthly variety, so you, the hard paying customer, are not left holding an empty bag...most subscribers are actually left with a rather full bag :lmao: :lmao:
Niiiice. Is SB the only book I should post up at as far as your props go?
RN up in here asking all the right questions!!GR with all the right answers! You are a good dude GR!!

When should we (assuming RN and myself) be starting subscription??

 
Congrats on the job GR!!! A happy wife and home life will make you even better.

I want to kick Ozzie Guillen in the nards right about now. Leaves Jenks in when it was obvious he has/had nothing today in the bottom of the ninth. 6-3 lead he gone!!! 7-6 loss. Horrible call leaving him in.

 
Okay, so those books came that I ordered at Amazon last week.

- Sharp Sports Betting; Stanford Wong (recommended by lumpy)

- Weighing The Odds In Sports Betting; King Yao

- How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Point Spread; J.R. Miller

As I searched around various gambling forums, those three books were consistently the most mentioned as being worthwhile. I've been betting sports for over 25 years with varying degrees of success. Easily more failure than success, however. I didn't need a book to tell me how to gamble. I needed a book to tell me how not to gamble. I had to address my biggest weakness (by FAR).... money management.

Wong's book is ####### amazing. I am not prepared to give a summary on it just yet, as there is a ton of data yet to digest.

The book by Miller contains almost no betting strategies, other than stuff we've all heard. Rather, the entire book is one big money management seminar. The recurring theme - one he stresses time and again - is that you should never, EVER EVER vary the size of your bet. ALWAYS 2% of your bankroll. Period.

If your bankroll is $3,000, each bet should be $66 to win $60.

If your bankroll is $11,000, each bet should be $220 to win $200.

Only when your bankroll reaches the next-highest level on the chart he displays do you increase your standard wager size. For example, when that $11,000 stake becomes $15,000, each play is now $330 to win $300.

Miller says that most people go broke not by picking losers, but rather by having wild swings in their betting patterns. His says gamblers assume they will hit 5.3 out of every 10 bets. Or 53 out of every 100 bets (for the targeted 53% win rate). But that sample size is too small. Miller says by keeping your wagers uniform, you'll survive bad streaks and stay alive long enough to hit 530 out of 1000 bets. Slow and steady. The problem, again, is that he offers no solid handicapping tips. It's as if we will ALL magically hit 53% just by staying in action long enough to increase the amount of bets placed. Still, some eye-opening things are in the book.

You mean I'm NOT supposed to bet $1,000 on a game when I only have $2,000 left in my account?

:hifive:

Oh, Miller has a "no-think" system for NFL totals.

Bet OVER any line of 37 or lower, and bet UNDER any line of 51 or higher. He showed a 10-year sample where this system went 195-111-1.

King Yao's book is really excellent. He spends a lot of time preaching about +EV, how to achieve it in your betting, and how to always avoid -EV wagers. His money management plan is similar to Miller's, but even more conservative. Yao suggests betting only 1% of your entire bankroll on each bet, and saving the 2% bets for the ones which have the most edge. (Again, Miller says to never have one bet that you "like" more than another one -- same wager amount all the time.) Yao's book touches on everything you can imagine: props, scalping, hedging, 1st half betting, March Madness pools, horce racing, etc.

If anyone has thoughts on any of this, I'd love to hear them.

 
Okay, so those books came that I ordered at Amazon last week.

- Sharp Sports Betting; Stanford Wong (recommended by lumpy)

- Weighing The Odds In Sports Betting; King Yao

- How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Point Spread; J.R. Miller

As I searched around various gambling forums, those three books were consistently the most mentioned as being worthwhile. I've been betting sports for over 25 years with varying degrees of success. Easily more failure than success, however. I didn't need a book to tell me how to gamble. I needed a book to tell me how not to gamble. I had to address my biggest weakness (by FAR).... money management.

Wong's book is ####### amazing. I am not prepared to give a summary on it just yet, as there is a ton of data yet to digest.

The book by Miller contains almost no betting strategies, other than stuff we've all heard. Rather, the entire book is one big money management seminar. The recurring theme - one he stresses time and again - is that you should never, EVER EVER vary the size of your bet. ALWAYS 2% of your bankroll. Period.

If your bankroll is $3,000, each bet should be $66 to win $60.

If your bankroll is $11,000, each bet should be $220 to win $200.

Only when your bankroll reaches the next-highest level on the chart he displays do you increase your standard wager size. For example, when that $11,000 stake becomes $15,000, each play is now $330 to win $300.

Miller says that most people go broke not by picking losers, but rather by having wild swings in their betting patterns. His says gamblers assume they will hit 5.3 out of every 10 bets. Or 53 out of every 100 bets (for the targeted 53% win rate). But that sample size is too small. Miller says by keeping your wagers uniform, you'll survive bad streaks and stay alive long enough to hit 530 out of 1000 bets. Slow and steady. The problem, again, is that he offers no solid handicapping tips. It's as if we will ALL magically hit 53% just by staying in action long enough to increase the amount of bets placed. Still, some eye-opening things are in the book.

You mean I'm NOT supposed to bet $1,000 on a game when I only have $2,000 left in my account?

:hifive:

Oh, Miller has a "no-think" system for NFL totals.

Bet OVER any line of 37 or lower, and bet UNDER any line of 51 or higher. He showed a 10-year sample where this system went 195-111-1.

King Yao's book is really excellent. He spends a lot of time preaching about +EV, how to achieve it in your betting, and how to always avoid -EV wagers. His money management plan is similar to Miller's, but even more conservative. Yao suggests betting only 1% of your entire bankroll on each bet, and saving the 2% bets for the ones which have the most edge. (Again, Miller says to never have one bet that you "like" more than another one -- same wager amount all the time.) Yao's book touches on everything you can imagine: props, scalping, hedging, 1st half betting, March Madness pools, horce racing, etc.

If anyone has thoughts on any of this, I'd love to hear them.
So, in summary, do you recommend all 3? Have you formed an opinion on which management style is better between Miller and Yao?
 
So, in summary, do you recommend all 3? Have you formed an opinion on which management style is better between Miller and Yao?
No sense in getting Miller's book. I pretty much just gave away the entire plot.Definitely would recommend the other two without hesitation. Again, the MM style of Miller & Yao are very similar.
 
So, in summary, do you recommend all 3? Have you formed an opinion on which management style is better between Miller and Yao?
No sense in getting Miller's book. I pretty much just gave away the entire plot.Definitely would recommend the other two without hesitation. Again, the MM style of Miller & Yao are very similar.
Thanks, i'm on Amazon getting Wong's book now.Very interesting on the static over/under rule for NFL totals from Miller. Seems too easy no??
 
AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate.

My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :hifive: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.

 
So, in summary, do you recommend all 3? Have you formed an opinion on which management style is better between Miller and Yao?
No sense in getting Miller's book. I pretty much just gave away the entire plot.Definitely would recommend the other two without hesitation. Again, the MM style of Miller & Yao are very similar.
Thanks, i'm on Amazon getting Wong's book now.
Gotta love getting books for between $3 and $8. LOL.
 
AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate. My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :hifive: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I happen to agree with everything you just wrote.... BUT, that thinking has gotten me nowhere.
 
AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate. My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :whistle: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I happen to agree with everything you just wrote.... BUT, that thinking has gotten me nowhere.
A lot of it depends on you and your personality. Varying your bet sizes doesn't work well for people that tend to go on tilt easily or don't have the patience/discipline/ability to withstand the inevitable bad beats and losing streaks. It also won't work if you can't correctly determine which of your bets have more EV than others. Flat betting helps you control your emotions because no game is more important than any other. In terms of maximizing profit, it's not optimal, but it's not a huge mistake either.
 
AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate.

My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :whistle: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I happen to agree with everything you just wrote.... BUT, that thinking has gotten me nowhere.
A lot of it depends on you and your personality. Varying your bet sizes doesn't work well for people that tend to go on tilt easily or don't have the patience/discipline/ability to withstand the inevitable bad beats and losing streaks. It also won't work if you can't correctly determine which of your bets have more EV than others. Flat betting helps you control your emotions because no game is more important than any other. In terms of maximizing profit, it's not optimal, but it's not a huge mistake either.
Flat betting is clearly for me, since you described my gambling persona to a T in your first paragraph.
 
AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate.

My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :rolleyes: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I happen to agree with everything you just wrote.... BUT, that thinking has gotten me nowhere.
A lot of it depends on you and your personality. Varying your bet sizes doesn't work well for people that tend to go on tilt easily or don't have the patience/discipline/ability to withstand the inevitable bad beats and losing streaks. It also won't work if you can't correctly determine which of your bets have more EV than others. Flat betting helps you control your emotions because no game is more important than any other. In terms of maximizing profit, it's not optimal, but it's not a huge mistake either.
Flat betting is clearly for me, since you described my gambling persona to a T in your first paragraph.
I would agree with that :) Try it out and see how it feels. I think you'll find that you won't live and die with the games as much because they are all equally important. And if you aren't as emotionally invested, it keeps you from tilting and betting half your account on one game.
 
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AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate.

My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :rolleyes: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I happen to agree with everything you just wrote.... BUT, that thinking has gotten me nowhere.
A lot of it depends on you and your personality. Varying your bet sizes doesn't work well for people that tend to go on tilt easily or don't have the patience/discipline/ability to withstand the inevitable bad beats and losing streaks. It also won't work if you can't correctly determine which of your bets have more EV than others. Flat betting helps you control your emotions because no game is more important than any other. In terms of maximizing profit, it's not optimal, but it's not a huge mistake either.
Flat betting is clearly for me, since you described my gambling persona to a T in your first paragraph.
I would agree with that ;)
Current odds of me sticking to flat betting: 1,000,000 to 1.Especially when GR releases a 640 star lock. :)

 
AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate. My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :rolleyes: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I happen to agree with everything you just wrote.... BUT, that thinking has gotten me nowhere.
A lot of it depends on you and your personality. Varying your bet sizes doesn't work well for people that tend to go on tilt easily or don't have the patience/discipline/ability to withstand the inevitable bad beats and losing streaks. It also won't work if you can't correctly determine which of your bets have more EV than others. Flat betting helps you control your emotions because no game is more important than any other. In terms of maximizing profit, it's not optimal, but it's not a huge mistake either.
I agree with both of you here. If someone tells me they flat bet everything they likely are not willing to take risk and/or when they take risks they tend to tilt easily like Tribe said. Or they cannot recognize good value when they see it, like Lumpy said. I think this trait of mine has gotten very good over the last few years. I understand what is good value and bet a lot on those bets. I also can recognize when I am probably on the wrong side, GB/AZ playoffs when I laid 2 with GB and make those plays "action" plays. Good example of this last nfl season was the Wash/NYG Monday night game in like week 12. Wash +3 -110 was on a bunch of Del. Park parlay cards of mine that already won. Wash +3 was pretty much worth $1700 or so (don't remember the exact amount). I could have easily bet NYG -2 which was available everywhere and guaranteed a pretty nice profit. Instead, of betting the NYG I kept betting Wash +3 -110 at SIA - like $500 bets at a time, I had like $4500 or so on the Skins. I then kept betting NYG -2 -110 at other books but for like $2000 or so, way less then the Wash bets. Of course the Giants hammer the Skins by like 30 and I ended up losing a few grand, but to me the Skins were value and I couldn't pass up +3 -110 (and even some -105 IIRC). I could have played "smart" hedged some NYG money and sat back content, but I went for the home run and struck out.
 
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AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate. My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point :thumbup: ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I totally agree with this. But be careful betting "mistakes". If its a true mistake by the book, they may cut you off. But I believe Lumpy is not talking about that. I never flat bet, but then again, I am probably a much more discplined bettor. If I see Bourn NO RBI at -170, I am certainly not gonna flat bet that, I'm gonna hammer it, as the true line should be -500 or -600. If and when you start playing props, you'll find its easier to increase your bets after you have locked in some nice profit. I have only been betting props/futures for last 3-4 months. Probably not the smartest idea, but if I make big bets, I make several different bets. The lines aren't moving much these days, so I don't think SB is out there looking to cut limits right now. That may all change come football season. Baseball has been very profitable for me just playing props.
 
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AFTER you've convinced yourself you can win $$ betting on sports I completely disagree with Miller. If I see a line that's a mistake I bet as much as I can tolerate. My current unit is $300, I've wagered as much as $3300 on sporting event(I lost but that's not the point <_< ). I adjust my bet size by the edge I think I have when placing a bet. Staring at lines everyday you can get a good feel for how "off" a line may be. Or if a book is slow to move a line I hammer away. It keeps betting fun when you throw a large bet in every once in a while.
I totally agree with this. But be careful betting "mistakes". If its a true mistake by the book, they may cut you off. But I believe Lumpy is not talking about that. I never flat bet, but then again, I am probably a much more discplined bettor. If I see Bourn NO RBI at -170, I am certainly not gonna flat bet that, I'm gonna hammer it, as the true line should be -500 or -600. If and when you start playing props, you'll find its easier to increase your bets after you have locked in some nice profit. I have only been betting props/futures for last 3-4 months. Probably not the smartest idea, but if I make big bets, I make several different bets. The lines aren't moving much these days, so I don't think SB is out there looking to cut limits right now. That may all change come football season. Baseball has been very profitable for me just playing props.
I can confirm that SB cuts for playing "mistake" lines. One of our own on this board played Podsednik yes hit at +150 or something directly at the open. Within 10 minutes the line was otb and he was cut. To my knowledge he's the only person that I know that's been cut during baseball, and we took them for almost 50 units as a group and I've tacked on another 25 units onto that in the last month. Lately I've been betting at about 6 o'clock, zero line movement after $300-500 bets, they completely let their guard down in the evening.
 
The biggest botched line on SB that GooRoo alerted his subscriber to was that Manny Alexander line (I think that was his name - guard from Michigan)

I maxed it out Sportsbook and they honored. I also luckily had a local that was stupid enough to take it too and really built my betting bankroll on that one mistake line.

Not only did I not get cut, they honored the payout. I think it was o/u 24.5 assists+rebounds for a point guard! That was the greatest day of my betting career.

 
The biggest botched line on SB that GooRoo alerted his subscriber to was that Manny Alexander line (I think that was his name - guard from Michigan)I maxed it out Sportsbook and they honored. I also luckily had a local that was stupid enough to take it too and really built my betting bankroll on that one mistake line. Not only did I not get cut, they honored the payout. I think it was o/u 24.5 assists+rebounds for a point guard! That was the greatest day of my betting career.
Manny Harris. Cannot believe they didn't catch that one. Obviously intended on pts+reb, they lined it asst+reb and burned hard :ptts:
 
Sportsbook had a line reversed a few weeks ago, someone NO 2B/3B/HR +160, not only did they not pull the line they let the bet go thru. It sat there all day at the reversed line and didn't get touched. They made a similar mistake the next day and it got pulled immediately.

They still cut but you can prolong your account by not betting a large # of props and by giving them lots of other action on sides/totals/not props.

If you do get cut by sportsbook do not just open another acct and access it from your home computer, they do IP track.

 
Sportsbook had a line reversed a few weeks ago, someone NO 2B/3B/HR +160, not only did they not pull the line they let the bet go thru. It sat there all day at the reversed line and didn't get touched. They made a similar mistake the next day and it got pulled immediately.

They still cut but you can prolong your account by not betting a large # of props and by giving them lots of other action on sides/totals/not props.

If you do get cut by sportsbook do not just open another acct and access it from your home computer, they do IP track.
I think that was Casey McGehee against Wainwright or Carp...I couldn't believe that one either.
 
Monday:

Ichiro yes hit -280 risk 500

Polanco no rbi -150 risk 400

Barmes no run -180 risk 250

Sandoval no run -170 risk 120

eta non prop:

Texas Ranger +109

 
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Byrd NO RUN +210 ...who wants to bet it and possibly get their limits cut?

ETA: Already bet down to +200....someone is betting it.

 
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Lupe said:
Byrd NO RUN +210 ...who wants to bet it and possibly get their limits cut?ETA: Already bet down to +200....someone is betting it.
He's probably going to score, Wesley Wright isn't much of a MLB pitcher
 
WSox -125

Rays (-1.5) -125

Tor -106

RedSox O4

SEA U3.5 -130

CLE O4 -115

DET U4.5 -125

PHILS U3.5 -125

PIT U4.5 -130

Braden U4 K's -120

Dempster U6.5 K's -130

 
1 Members: TheGooRoo :lmao: :lmao:
nothing too hot tonight....played huge juice in Dejesus yes hit -300 and Braun yes hit -280. Also played the Rangers again, -145.
I'll jump on, thanks. You can only imagine what Ichiro did to me last night. What a roller-coaster. Most agonizing nickel I ever won. 0 - 2 in his last AB...single up the middle! Couldn't believe it. The worst was when CBS (online) gave him an infield hit earlier in the game, only to change the scoring like 15 seconds later, to an error. Brutal. Line drive out also stung.
 

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