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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
The Ref
Footballguy
Now at 33 -155, guess they didnt want to go 33.5 and have peole play for the middle.I just realized that 3 of my 9 units was o 31.5
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
What a massive whiff that Avs SOG was, Christ.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
29 shots with 7 minutes left. Should go over.
The Ref
Footballguy
34 shots - even the guys who got in real late at 33 -155 get paid. Good thing they called that power play otherwise only the over 30.5 would have paid. It always nice to have a team get out of the gate late and still manage to go over. Red wings was the same story today.My buddy also likes the Habs over 32.5 tonight, but as a two star play at the current price (-135). It was a three star at -115 this am.As for props Phill Kessel over 4 Shots + points. Aparently Kessel avgs 4.3 shots at home and you have a good chance at picking up a point along the way to boot - now it's at -120 though.29 shots with 7 minutes left. Should go over.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
So yeah, thanks Ref. I checked in a couple of times is all. Towards the end of the first -- 5 shots, ouch. Then I looked around the middle of the 2nd -- 11 shots, not good at all. I figured it was a good time for the ol' reverse jinx and that I might enjoy a jacuzzi more. Which I did.
I come back, click on the screen and what do I see? 30 shots! 
I find the game on satellite and there is stoppage for a high stick. Like 10 seconds later, Colorado's shoving the puck around the front of the net. 2 shots, winner. A thing of beauty, thanks.
I come back, click on the screen and what do I see? 30 shots!
I find the game on satellite and there is stoppage for a high stick. Like 10 seconds later, Colorado's shoving the puck around the front of the net. 2 shots, winner. A thing of beauty, thanks.nittanylion
Footballguy
Silver lining: At 0-3 on the day with 2u bets, given 'our man's' winning percentage, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor that one, and very good that both, of his remaining 2 2u plays, come in winners.Toledo +9 tips off at 7, Tenn St -6 tips off at 8. Lay a strong wager on the 7PM game, and watch the 1st half closely. Based on what you see, you'll have the time and info to have a pretty good idea what do do with that 8PM start.Play the odds, roll the dice, break the rules...but always play the percentages.Let's see how it works out!
nittanylion
Footballguy
Since I'm the one who suggested the experiment, let the record state that I've lost all 3 of those plays today, and that I just doubled down on Toledo.
Phrase that pays...? LET'S DO THIS!!!
Phrase that pays...? LET'S DO THIS!!!
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Just took CSU, had to, totally bias but don't care. I've actually bet against 'em a few times this season where I figured they'd come back down to earth finally. Only to watch them win outright.But for you sickos, know that BYU has owned us, so I wouldn't hesitate to bet them. But also realize that THE WHALE (Moby) WILL BE ROCKIN!!! It's not like that usually, so this is an edge they don't often get...it will get loud in smaller, smaller jam-packed arena. As such, it will be real important for CSU to keep the crowd in it, no doubt. Just heard a great story on the MTN network while I was typing. When CSU won that tourney, beating Southern Miss (and Ol' Miss) in Cancun, they got a certificate for winning. On every certificate was a crossed out "SOUTHERN MISS".
####### officials. They were saying how the team is feeding off stuff like that -- how that's how they went into UNLV and won, still getting no respect.Anyway, I'm obviously fired up. GLTA!nittanylion
Footballguy
2nd Half, 1:49 remaining, Toledo +9 is down 10...with 9 minutes to play, they were down 2, and then Ball St started to put some distance between the two...Tenn St tipoff was actually 8:30, not 8, and then was moved to 8:45, and then 9...
...again, given 'our man's' winning percentage, with game 4 in peril, the odds are still good that Game 5 will hit...astronomically so if Game 4 does not cash in...
...with NCAA Football being over, I'm bored, so, it's time to TRIPLE DOWN on Tennessee St -6...WHOO-HOO!!!
...again, given 'our man's' winning percentage, with game 4 in peril, the odds are still good that Game 5 will hit...astronomically so if Game 4 does not cash in...
...with NCAA Football being over, I'm bored, so, it's time to TRIPLE DOWN on Tennessee St -6...WHOO-HOO!!!
lumpy19
Footballguy
this should end well
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
The Ref
Footballguy
My buddy is so money... Cant make time to brush his teeth in the AM but he sure knows how to cap hockey props.34 shots - even the guys who got in real late at 33 -155 get paid. Good thing they called that power play otherwise only the over 30.5 would have paid. It always nice to have a team get out of the gate late and still manage to go over. Red wings was the same story today.My buddy also likes the Habs over 32.5 tonight, but as a two star play at the current price (-135). It was a three star at -115 this am.As for props Phill Kessel over 4 Shots + points. Aparently Kessel avgs 4.3 shots at home and you have a good chance at picking up a point along the way to boot - now it's at -120 though.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I know thats awesome, always seem to tail late and not get here in time! DOHMy buddy is so money... Cant make time to brush his teeth in the AM but he sure knows how to cap hockey props.34 shots - even the guys who got in real late at 33 -155 get paid. Good thing they called that power play otherwise only the over 30.5 would have paid. It always nice to have a team get out of the gate late and still manage to go over. Red wings was the same story today.My buddy also likes the Habs over 32.5 tonight, but as a two star play at the current price (-135). It was a three star at -115 this am.As for props Phill Kessel over 4 Shots + points. Aparently Kessel avgs 4.3 shots at home and you have a good chance at picking up a point along the way to boot - now it's at -120 though.
The Ref
Footballguy
Yeah the Avs had a handfull of shots at the end of the first to make it interesting then came out in the second and did little again to the point where I was ready to rip up the ticket... of course they came out and went crazy at the end of the second half with two short handed shots and two more last second garbage shots. So they only needed 9 shots to go over 30.5 going into the third - and they had 7 of them in the first 10 minutes. Thing is they had one shot from the ten minute mark till when you tuned in. Thats why that double minor saved our tails.So yeah, thanks Ref. I checked in a couple of times is all. Towards the end of the first -- 5 shots, ouch. Then I looked around the middle of the 2nd -- 11 shots, not good at all. I figured it was a good time for the ol' reverse jinx and that I might enjoy a jacuzzi more. Which I did.I come back, click on the screen and what do I see? 30 shots!
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Anyone looking at Forte or Starks longest rush they are at 17.5 and 16.5 at sportsbook.
modogg
Footballguy
All i can say is tomorrow is another day, hopefully NFL pays off like a champ for all of usETA: Jesus H i need to go back to 2nd grade math. Pretty happy that 71-65 is a 6 point differrence, and not a 7-point difference like i first thought
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The Ref
Footballguy
Still feel the same way here. Can't find anything I really like.
modogg
Footballguy
I hate sportsbook, with every ounce of hate i can muster. Does anybody know any other book that has NHL props, especially shots on goal?
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Jets/Steelers 38
Bears/Pack 42.5
Where we sitting here? Bears/Packers has dropped and I think that is in over territory now. Thoughts?
Bears/Pack 42.5
Where we sitting here? Bears/Packers has dropped and I think that is in over territory now. Thoughts?
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ceo3west
Footballguy
You have these reversed..I like both unders, so they are sure to fly over the totals
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Fixed it, thanks. Yeah a lot of people on the unders this week but both are probably pushing the reasonable doubt stage. I think if either drops another half a point, I'm going over.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Guessing line will open 33.5-34.5. My number suggests 35. Under these scenarios, no play for me.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
I'm gonna beleive this guy. I miss making money on his plays
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I like the under 42.5 in the GB/CHI game. I've never had much luck playing totals, but I think this is a little high. In for 3 units.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Save the advice sir, nobody will listen to it (even though your correct).
lumpy19
Footballguy
I'd be slightly concerned about balances in sportsbook.com
Over the last few months I had a check withdrawal delayed over a month, I had a bank wire that they claimed they sent disappear and I had a usemywallet withdrawal cancelled because of some bogus reason. Despite their awful history I've always felt good about having funds their and I can no longer say that. Something is going on over there.
Over the last few months I had a check withdrawal delayed over a month, I had a bank wire that they claimed they sent disappear and I had a usemywallet withdrawal cancelled because of some bogus reason. Despite their awful history I've always felt good about having funds their and I can no longer say that. Something is going on over there.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
In the last month I've had a check delayed 1 week and a wire with no problem. Monday I'll do another check and post the results.
The Ref
Footballguy
Opened 33.5 and hasnt moved. A Tip of my cap to the sportsbook odds maker on this one.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I got one check last week very promptly and it cleared. Hoping it continues until after the Super Bowl.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
for those with sia money. Lots of good "no" TD bets there. Looks like I'll be rooting for no tds today.
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Insoxicated
When I was following GooRoo plays I had thrown a 10u play down on a big "lock" play... ####ed it up and picked the wrong side, so I threw 20u on the other side
GDB playing drunk
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
And YOU'RE also correct. However, what reason is there exactly, for a post like this? A smug reply, then an insult to a group (even though it ain't me). It's why people hate you. It's better (for YOU) to just shut the trap on stuff like that and instead offer insight = everyone's happy.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Usually good bets because public like the other side so we get good lines.
yes 3 unanswered scores
Un 3.5 fgs
No both teams wont make 33+ yd fg
No ST/def td
yes 3 unanswered scores
Un 3.5 fgs
No both teams wont make 33+ yd fg
No ST/def td
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I've offered plenty of insight.
Got a bank wire last week (from HollywoodSports - same ownership). Took the usual 5 business days, no problem.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I know you idiot, that's why I pointed it out. Follow me now: THAT PART WAS A COMPLIMENT.He still gets it wrong, always.
Last post, BIG DAY! 
nittanylion
Footballguy
Conference Championship Games in General:
Since 1970, when laying less than 10 points the SU winner in these games is 66-1-2 ATS. Ironically, the one loss came last year when NO failed to cover against the Vikings. Typically, however, the spread has not mattered.
Also, the team with the better defense in this game defined by points allowed per game during the regular season is now 51-26-1 ATS. That would apply to Pittsburgh and Green Bay.
Steelers, Steelers, Steelers, Steelers, Steelers...yes, even if the line has moved to -4. Keep on buying!!!
Let's start with the line - Math models forecasted by some of the most respected cappers that I know have this game anywhere from Steelers -7.5 to -9. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I'm very confident this line was set up artificially low to convince people that these Teams are closer than they are, to encourage people
to bet on the Jets right out of the gate. If it had been set higher, Vegas is basically admitting how much better the Steelers really are, the betting would have been pretty one sided probably up to 7-7.5. At 3.5, it at least got some early action money on the Jets to serve as insurance to offset an expected Pittsburgh win.
Now, let's look at the Jets, who are right where they were this time last year: on the road in a Conference Championship Game. This year's Jets, from a statistical standpoint, are worse than last years Team, and the Steelers are a better Team than last year's Colts. Jet's offense is below average, going against a very solid, and trending upward defense, which is a significant mismatch, and a much bigger disparity than the Steelers good offense vs the Jets very good defense. Jets have a Special Teams advantage, but it's neutralized by the Steelers projected turnover advantage.
Last week, everyone watched as the Jets traveled to Foxboro and took out Belichick, Brady and the Pats, the week after traveling to Indy to take out Manning and the Colts. The Colts were a Team in trouble ripe for an upset, so that wasn't a surprise, but the W over the Pats was impressive, legit, and not at all flukey. BUT...
Teams that win their Divisional Round Playoff Game as an underdog of 7 points or more, are just 3-8 as road dogs of less than 10 in the Conference Championship Game...
...and Championship Game road Teams with a winning percentage of less than .800 are just 12-30 ATS over the last 30 years...
...add to this that the Jets beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh 22-17 earlier in the Season, and we have another situation that plays in the Steelers favor: Playoff Teams in a 'revenge situation' (rematch on the same field where the earlier loss occured) are 39-21 ATS...
Let's look at that Game: Steelers were without Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller, and the Jets 'manufactured' 9 points via a Kickoff Return TD and a Safety. The Steelers outgained the Jets significantly in both Total Yards and Average Yards per Play. That loss also occured in Week 15, so it's still relatively fresh in people's minds, which impacts their betting mentality.
Steelers are playing only their 3rd Game in 31 Days, which gives that excellent Defense a chance to rest, and the Steelers aren't a Team that doesn't stay sharp during long layoffs - Tomlin doesn't allow it. They held the Ravens offense, which is statistically better than the Jets offense, to an astonishing 2.4 yards per play last week after a week of rest. In Week 6, coming off their bye and facing Cleveland in Pittsburgh for 'The Return of Big Ben' off the suspension (a big game following a week of rest), the Steelers absolutely humiliated the Browns.
Yes, the Jets have played close games vs Playoff Teams this year, but especially the last 2 week, they beat defenses significantly worse than the Steelers D. Steelers have the better offense, especially passing offense, the better defense, and the situation is in their favor as a favorite of less than 7 playing at home in a Conf Champ Game, in a revenge situation.
The one mitigating factor for the Jets is their Special Teams play returning Kickoffs and Punts - IF they are allowed to play the majority of their possessions on a short field, things could turn in their favor, but playing the Steelers as a favorite of 3 or less is a very, very solid play, and as a favorite of less than 7 is still a play worth placing strong consideration on.
I have nothing on the other Game.
Good Luck, all!
Since 1970, when laying less than 10 points the SU winner in these games is 66-1-2 ATS. Ironically, the one loss came last year when NO failed to cover against the Vikings. Typically, however, the spread has not mattered.
Also, the team with the better defense in this game defined by points allowed per game during the regular season is now 51-26-1 ATS. That would apply to Pittsburgh and Green Bay.
Steelers, Steelers, Steelers, Steelers, Steelers...yes, even if the line has moved to -4. Keep on buying!!!
Let's start with the line - Math models forecasted by some of the most respected cappers that I know have this game anywhere from Steelers -7.5 to -9. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I'm very confident this line was set up artificially low to convince people that these Teams are closer than they are, to encourage people
to bet on the Jets right out of the gate. If it had been set higher, Vegas is basically admitting how much better the Steelers really are, the betting would have been pretty one sided probably up to 7-7.5. At 3.5, it at least got some early action money on the Jets to serve as insurance to offset an expected Pittsburgh win.
Now, let's look at the Jets, who are right where they were this time last year: on the road in a Conference Championship Game. This year's Jets, from a statistical standpoint, are worse than last years Team, and the Steelers are a better Team than last year's Colts. Jet's offense is below average, going against a very solid, and trending upward defense, which is a significant mismatch, and a much bigger disparity than the Steelers good offense vs the Jets very good defense. Jets have a Special Teams advantage, but it's neutralized by the Steelers projected turnover advantage.
Last week, everyone watched as the Jets traveled to Foxboro and took out Belichick, Brady and the Pats, the week after traveling to Indy to take out Manning and the Colts. The Colts were a Team in trouble ripe for an upset, so that wasn't a surprise, but the W over the Pats was impressive, legit, and not at all flukey. BUT...
Teams that win their Divisional Round Playoff Game as an underdog of 7 points or more, are just 3-8 as road dogs of less than 10 in the Conference Championship Game...
...and Championship Game road Teams with a winning percentage of less than .800 are just 12-30 ATS over the last 30 years...
...add to this that the Jets beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh 22-17 earlier in the Season, and we have another situation that plays in the Steelers favor: Playoff Teams in a 'revenge situation' (rematch on the same field where the earlier loss occured) are 39-21 ATS...
Let's look at that Game: Steelers were without Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller, and the Jets 'manufactured' 9 points via a Kickoff Return TD and a Safety. The Steelers outgained the Jets significantly in both Total Yards and Average Yards per Play. That loss also occured in Week 15, so it's still relatively fresh in people's minds, which impacts their betting mentality.
Steelers are playing only their 3rd Game in 31 Days, which gives that excellent Defense a chance to rest, and the Steelers aren't a Team that doesn't stay sharp during long layoffs - Tomlin doesn't allow it. They held the Ravens offense, which is statistically better than the Jets offense, to an astonishing 2.4 yards per play last week after a week of rest. In Week 6, coming off their bye and facing Cleveland in Pittsburgh for 'The Return of Big Ben' off the suspension (a big game following a week of rest), the Steelers absolutely humiliated the Browns.
Yes, the Jets have played close games vs Playoff Teams this year, but especially the last 2 week, they beat defenses significantly worse than the Steelers D. Steelers have the better offense, especially passing offense, the better defense, and the situation is in their favor as a favorite of less than 7 playing at home in a Conf Champ Game, in a revenge situation.
The one mitigating factor for the Jets is their Special Teams play returning Kickoffs and Punts - IF they are allowed to play the majority of their possessions on a short field, things could turn in their favor, but playing the Steelers as a favorite of 3 or less is a very, very solid play, and as a favorite of less than 7 is still a play worth placing strong consideration on.
I have nothing on the other Game.
Good Luck, all!
modogg
Footballguy
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I may be an idiot from time to time and sides/totals are not usually my strength but no way in hell do math models favor the Steelers by over a td in this game. This game was played a month ago starting at Pitt +6 and closing 4. Jets won outright. Yes, no Polomalu/Heath - those guys are not worth 4 pts. No way does one game change 4 pts in which the previous game was won SU by the opposite team. If so, why was the previous line bet down?
Jets just got done beating 2 HOF qbs in their own stadium and gaining a lot of confidence. Pitt looked very sluggish in a sloppy game (by both teams) against Balt. I wasn't impressed but they made enough plays to get the job done.
I think Jets 1q, 1h may be better then the game. Not sure they can comeback if down DD in this one.
Call me a square today but I am betting GB and NYJ.
No mike wallace td -120 and -155 are big bets of mine too.
Jets just got done beating 2 HOF qbs in their own stadium and gaining a lot of confidence. Pitt looked very sluggish in a sloppy game (by both teams) against Balt. I wasn't impressed but they made enough plays to get the job done.
I think Jets 1q, 1h may be better then the game. Not sure they can comeback if down DD in this one.
Call me a square today but I am betting GB and NYJ.
No mike wallace td -120 and -155 are big bets of mine too.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
they FINALLY straightened out my last withdraw, but it took about 3 weeks.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
what "public" bets these props?
