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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

MarshallPlan said:
I may be an idiot from time to time and sides/totals are not usually my strength but no way in hell do math models favor the Steelers by over a td in this game. This game was played a month ago starting at Pitt +6 and closing 4. Jets won outright. Yes, no Polomalu/Heath - those guys are not worth 4 pts. No way does one game change 4 pts in which the previous game was won SU by the opposite team. If so, why was the previous line bet down?Jets just got done beating 2 HOF qbs in their own stadium and gaining a lot of confidence. Pitt looked very sluggish in a sloppy game (by both teams) against Balt. I wasn't impressed but they made enough plays to get the job done. I think Jets 1q, 1h may be better then the game. Not sure they can comeback if down DD in this one. Call me a square today but I am betting GB and NYJ. No mike wallace td -120 and -155 are big bets of mine too.
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I'm most concerned about the Jets having a let down after there "super bowl" last week.I'm just playing props this week...don't like any of the sides. Maybe...MAYBE CHI/GB O42.5
 
Clorox said:
MP - why are you so anti-Wallace today?
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He hasn't been scoring as many tds in the last few games. Very low total, Pitt TT at 21. Mendenhall big fav to score 1 td. That leaves 2 tds that I am likely up against. Cromartie a good matchup for Wallace with his speed, I'd expect a lot of man underneath and a safety over the top against Wallace. No need to worry about Revis on the other side against Ward. Jet cover corners really playing well and Wallace is for sure the #1 Pitt threat, I don't anticipate the Jets letting him being the guy beating them.
 
MarshallPlan said:
I may be an idiot from time to time and sides/totals are not usually my strength but no way in hell do math models favor the Steelers by over a td in this game. This game was played a month ago starting at Pitt +6 and closing 4. Jets won outright. Yes, no Polomalu/Heath - those guys are not worth 4 pts. No way does one game change 4 pts in which the previous game was won SU by the opposite team. If so, why was the previous line bet down?

Jets just got done beating 2 HOF qbs in their own stadium and gaining a lot of confidence. Pitt looked very sluggish in a sloppy game (by both teams) against Balt. I wasn't impressed but they made enough plays to get the job done.

I think Jets 1q, 1h may be better then the game. Not sure they can comeback if down DD in this one.

Call me a square today but I am betting GB and NYJ.

No mike wallace td -120 and -155 are big bets of mine too.
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I think there is some context around that game that you're ignoring. The Jets had just come off 2 embarrassing losses and were desperate for a win. Pittsburgh had just beaten Baltimore and Cincinnati and merely had to win 2 of 3 (Carolina and Cleveland were also on their schedule) to win the division at that point.That game meant a whole lot more to the Jets than the Steelers.

 
MarshallPlan said:
Clorox said:
MP - why are you so anti-Wallace today?
Click to expand...
He hasn't been scoring as many tds in the last few games. Very low total, Pitt TT at 21. Mendenhall big fav to score 1 td. That leaves 2 tds that I am likely up against. Cromartie a good matchup for Wallace with his speed, I'd expect a lot of man underneath and a safety over the top against Wallace. No need to worry about Revis on the other side against Ward.

Jet cover corners really playing well and Wallace is for sure the #1 Pitt threat, I don't anticipate the Jets letting him being the guy beating them.
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I agree with the bolded. Jets won't worry about Ward. They'll have all their safety help on Wallace. Maybe big day for Emmanuel Sanders?
 
Warehouse Nasty said:
MarshallPlan said:
I may be an idiot from time to time and sides/totals are not usually my strength but no way in hell do math models favor the Steelers by over a td in this game. This game was played a month ago starting at Pitt +6 and closing 4. Jets won outright. Yes, no Polomalu/Heath - those guys are not worth 4 pts. No way does one game change 4 pts in which the previous game was won SU by the opposite team. If so, why was the previous line bet down?

Jets just got done beating 2 HOF qbs in their own stadium and gaining a lot of confidence. Pitt looked very sluggish in a sloppy game (by both teams) against Balt. I wasn't impressed but they made enough plays to get the job done.

I think Jets 1q, 1h may be better then the game. Not sure they can comeback if down DD in this one.

Call me a square today but I am betting GB and NYJ.

No mike wallace td -120 and -155 are big bets of mine too.
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I think there is some context around that game that you're ignoring. The Jets had just come off 2 embarrassing losses and were desperate for a win. Pittsburgh had just beaten Baltimore and Cincinnati and merely had to win 2 of 3 (Carolina and Cleveland were also on their schedule) to win the division at that point.That game meant a whole lot more to the Jets than the Steelers.
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Okay let's take that into account. Even though I don't really agree the Jets were desperate for a win so they "tried" harder. I can understand the Steelers not trying as hard, but it was a national tv game. So let's say that game should have been +6. What do you make today's game?

 
I really don't think "the public" bets a lot of props.

My card for today:

GB -3.5 (-105) 1u

Bears +9 Jets +9.5 1u

Bears +9.5 Jets +9.5 1u

Jets ML +170 1u

Jets +3.5 2u

Both game overs (38 and 42.5) for .5u each for action

 
Warehouse Nasty said:
MarshallPlan said:
Clorox said:
MP - why are you so anti-Wallace today?
Click to expand...
He hasn't been scoring as many tds in the last few games. Very low total, Pitt TT at 21. Mendenhall big fav to score 1 td. That leaves 2 tds that I am likely up against. Cromartie a good matchup for Wallace with his speed, I'd expect a lot of man underneath and a safety over the top against Wallace. No need to worry about Revis on the other side against Ward.

Jet cover corners really playing well and Wallace is for sure the #1 Pitt threat, I don't anticipate the Jets letting him being the guy beating them.
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I agree with the bolded. Jets won't worry about Ward. They'll have all their safety help on Wallace. Maybe big day for Emmanuel Sanders?
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Yes, I would be pro Sanders and Brown. Maybe Heath as well. I am not playing any of them though.
 
CHi +3.5/O

Pitt ML/O is one parlay

Also teased CHI +10.5, Pitt +3, NYJ/Pitt O 31

I think PIt and NYJ puts up some points. PITT wins, but does not cover - just a gut feeling;

CHI keeps this closer due to special teams than people realize, IMHO.

GLTA

AB

 
I know NOTHING about college hoops so I figured I would ask the board. What do you think about the Indy under 138 today? Another buddy of mine likes it.

 
I have the same gut feeling on PIT winning and not covering. Too bad that margin of victory odds are terrible bets usually. PIT 1-3 is +450.

I'm on GB -3.5 and under 42.5 as a parlay and separate bets. Also did a GB ML/Under parlay. No idea what I'm doing later. I may play the PIT ML depending on how I do in the first game. GL guys.

ETA: Adding CHI TT under 20.5(-115) and Knox over 3.5 rec(-125).

 
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Just added Sachez U 205.5 yards for a unit - based on the same weather numbers as the Patriots game. it's 18 right now and feels like 7 according to weather.com.

 
I played Sanchez U19.5 completions. Also on H. Miller O3.5 receptions, H. Miller yes TD, and B. Edwards O3.5 receptions. Don't tail me, I'm a donk. Also thinking about hitting some M. Wallace overs ;)

Adding Wallace O3.5 and Sanders O3. Banking on everyone but Ward having a decent game, LOL.

 
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MP, do you do any research on the no defensive/special teams TD? Or do you bet it blind? Just wondering since I see you play it a lot. I see it's -165 for the GB game.

 
OK my hockey buddy has his picks in. He has one three star play - Buffalo over 33.5 -125, and one "two and a half" star Florida Under 29.5 -125.

On both for two units, might go an extra one of buff if I can't find anything else on the NFL. Bad way to look at it I know...

 
The Ref said:
OK my hockey buddy has his picks in. He has one three star play - Buffalo over 33.5 -125, and one "two and a half" star Florida Under 29.5 -125.On both for two units, might go an extra one of buff if I can't find anything else on the NFL. Bad way to look at it I know...
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Hold the phone - just got an updated call. By buddy is upgrading the Florida pick to a 4 star.
 
modogg said:
Alright, before the football game:

Flyers +105 - coming off a loss to the Devils and playing a shell of the team they faced in the Cup last year. They'll be motivated here
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:popcorn: feel free to put your money on the Flyers to win the cup nowETA: The Blackhawks gay song when they score absolutely makes my ears bleed

 
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Clorox said:
facook said:
Clorox said:
facook said:
GB -3.5GB Under 42.5Pitt -3.5GB/Pitt ML parlay
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Curiosity is getting the best of me - why are you posting this now?
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Really no reason other than I came in to post it earlier this morning and thought I did, but it never came up (computer issue, I guess). I'm the public. :lmao:
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Sorry man, douchey post on my part. Let's go Steelers!
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No sweat to me, and I didn't take it as douchey. And yeah, :lmao:
 
lumpy19 said:
steelers-3 -130-3.5 -110-1952nd leg of teaser +3.5suck it jets!!
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If the Steelers win by 4-10 (and I do well on the two remaining GR props, plus the few I played), it's going to be an epic day. I almost feel like I should hedge on the Jets, but just can't seem to do it. I want to add more to the Steelers....................................
 
Clorox said:
lumpy19 said:
steelers-3 -130-3.5 -110-1952nd leg of teaser +3.5suck it jets!!
Click to expand...
If the Steelers win by 4-10 (and I do well on the two remaining GR props, plus the few I played), it's going to be an epic day. I almost feel like I should hedge on the Jets, but just can't seem to do it. I want to add more to the Steelers....................................
Click to expand...
Just out of curiosity, can I ask what are the two remaining GR props you're tailing?
 
facook said:
Clorox said:
lumpy19 said:
steelers-3 -130-3.5 -110-1952nd leg of teaser +3.5suck it jets!!
Click to expand...
If the Steelers win by 4-10 (and I do well on the two remaining GR props, plus the few I played), it's going to be an epic day. I almost feel like I should hedge on the Jets, but just can't seem to do it. I want to add more to the Steelers....................................
Click to expand...
Just out of curiosity, can I ask what are the two remaining GR props you're tailing?
Click to expand...
Can I post them, GR?
 
facook said:
Clorox said:
lumpy19 said:
steelers-3 -130-3.5 -110-1952nd leg of teaser +3.5suck it jets!!
Click to expand...
If the Steelers win by 4-10 (and I do well on the two remaining GR props, plus the few I played), it's going to be an epic day. I almost feel like I should hedge on the Jets, but just can't seem to do it. I want to add more to the Steelers....................................
Click to expand...
Just out of curiosity, can I ask what are the two remaining GR props you're tailing?
Click to expand...
Ben u 250.5 yds and LT longest rush u 13.5
 
TheGooRoo said:
facook said:
Clorox said:
lumpy19 said:
steelers-3 -130-3.5 -110-1952nd leg of teaser +3.5suck it jets!!
Click to expand...
If the Steelers win by 4-10 (and I do well on the two remaining GR props, plus the few I played), it's going to be an epic day. I almost feel like I should hedge on the Jets, but just can't seem to do it. I want to add more to the Steelers....................................
Click to expand...
Just out of curiosity, can I ask what are the two remaining GR props you're tailing?
Click to expand...
Ben u 250.5 yds and LT longest rush u 13.5
Click to expand...
Interesting. Good luck to you guys!
 
The Ref said:
TheGooRoo said:
The Ref said:
NHL Prop warning for tomorrow. Atlanta give up the second most shots in the NHL + Tampa is in the top 4 of shots taken + Tampa is very good at home = Tampa Over shots.If this line opens less then 31, pound it. It should open 33.5.
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Guessing line will open 33.5-34.5. My number suggests 35. Under these scenarios, no play for me.
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Opened 33.5 and hasnt moved. A Tip of my cap to the sportsbook odds maker on this one.
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Should have bet it anyway... 36 with 11 mintues left.
 
pinnacle has a super bowl line up, GB pk -110 at open and quickly went to -123

eta: back down to -110

 
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