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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?
ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.
Lump, thoughts/lean on the total?
Seems high for 2 teams with defenses this good
Playoffs have been interesting though for the Steelers. Look at that Baltimore game.
 
Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?
ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.
Lump, thoughts/lean on the total?
Seems high for 2 teams with defenses this good
Playoffs have been interesting though for the Steelers. Look at that Baltimore game.
What about it?
 
Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?
ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.
Got Pitt +3 (-120) at sportsbook. I'll just lock that in I guess.
I don't think they'll adjust it but sportsbook has -105 fridays.....usually when they have shaded NFL lines on the 3 they don't apply the -105 but it sure would be awesome if pit +3 -105 showed up at 12:01am friday.
 
Copied from another site.

Tom Silverstein, the Packers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal, was asked during an online chat about the number of carries Starks could expect to have against the Steelers.

This is what he said: A: Tom Silverstein - "... I think you're going to see a lot of Brandon Jackson and not so much Starks. I think you'll see the Packers spread the field early and see how the Steelers react. One thing that sticks in my mind is the first two plays of the last Steelers-Packers game when the Packers went three wides and the Steelers blitzed right up the middle both times, knocking Rodgers on his back both times. The back was Ryan Grant and he didn't do a good job of picking up the blitz. That's why I think you'll see a lot of Jackson."

 
I think when analyzing one game we have a 20 game sample size but we have to eliminate certain games and halves. For instance, I tossed out Pitt's first 4 games, Rodgers games he missed/was knocked out of, Pitt's 2h vs Jets, and Pitt's game against Balt.

 
If anyone is interested in some early soccer action I got a pretty good game that seems like a lockTuesday, February 15, 2011 (Times shown in Eastern Standard Time)12:00pUEFA Club Competitions - UEFA Europa LeagueAris Thessaloniki+450Manchester City-165Draw +260Even though Aris has been overperforming they wont be able to surprise Manchester City February 15.
Ha, I was watching Manchester City on gamecast all afternoon and just now realized that this game wont be played for 2 more weeks! I need to learn to read better, now I have money tied up in a silly fuutbawl game that could have been lost on the football game sunday.
 
1u Mississippi +6.5ytd 142-108 56.8% +28.85u
As far as NCAA Hoops goes, the Conference I follow closely enough to bet during the regular Season is the SEC, as I'm a HUGE Arkansas fan, as I've mentioned before. I took a long look at Ole' Miss at Kentucky, but a longer one at Vanderbilt +4.5 at Florida, which is where my action is tonight. Line has moved to +4, but I'd still take it - Vandy doesn't look like a Team that's going to lose 2 in a row in SEC play, and they are STINGING MAD after getting beaten soundly at home by the Hogs on Saturday. The Commodores are a legit Top 25 Team, who stumbled and will be looking to bounce back. So is Florida, coming off a hard fought road loss at Miss St, and prior to that struggled vs SEC doormat Georgia at home, winning in double OT. In my opinion, the Gators are descending, while the Commodores are ascending...one of these 2 is going to have lost 2 straight by the end of tonight, and I think it's more likely to be the Gators. Small play, 1u at most.
So, +4.5 cashed in, and +4 pushed...brush with disaster as the refs tried to give the game and the cover away in the final seconds of OT with an unbelievable no-call that would have put Vanderbilt's #2-in-the-nation free throw shooter at the line, shooting 3, and with a 1 point lead, which would have likely ended up in a straight up W, instead, had to sweat out the cover til the end...btw, nice cover bmj...Tonight's SEC: you can still get Arkansas +1, and +100 ML, playing at home tonight vs Georgia...it's absolutely absurd that Georgia is favored in this game, but the line is artificially low because they took Florida to 2OT before eventually losing at home, and then travelling to Kentucky and only losing by 6 to the #16 Wildcats......this is UGA's 2nd road game (back to back) in 5 days, and the trip to Arkansas is a long one, and the weather is not good, additional stress Meanwhile, Arkansas just beat Vanderbilt at Vandy, overcoming a significant hurdle by getting a tough SEC road W. The Hogs showed a rhythm and flow in that Game that has me thinking they have put it together on both sides of the court. Their remaining schedule, besides Alabama, Kentucky and @Miss St, is quite soft; they could literally go 7-3, so the @Vandy win was a big one, because at 14-6/4-3, winning all the games they should win would land them in the tournament...They know this, and this is a game they 'should' win, the 1st one playing with that mindset.Arkansas +1, Even, -1, whatever...this is a multi-unit play. Good Luck!
 
Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?
ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.
Got Pitt +3 (-120) at sportsbook. I'll just lock that in I guess.
I don't think they'll adjust it but sportsbook has -105 fridays.....usually when they have shaded NFL lines on the 3 they don't apply the -105 but it sure would be awesome if pit +3 -105 showed up at 12:01am friday.
They didn't this past Friday FWTIW
 
:) i'm in for a bit as well. this and tjnc's UNC Greensboro, nice and easy night hopefully
Apologies for the late posting as it cost you a W. I didn't think anyone was tailing after 3 plays.I have .5u on USC +1.5 1st Half. I limit my bets on the larger conference games so that's why I list it at .5u
 
What is a good book for college basketball totals? I never used to bet them but I'm trying to get into it and sportsbook, sportsbetting, and bodog barely offer any.

 
Two big ones.

Heath 1st grab ov 7.5 -125 and longest rec ov 14.5 -125 (more).

Looking at Heath's stats he averages over 12 ypc and he's went over 14.5 long rec in every game but 4.

Edit: I also took a shot at him for first td +1850 at 5dimes.

 
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1u Mississippi +6.5

ytd 142-108 56.8% +28.85u
As far as NCAA Hoops goes, the Conference I follow closely enough to bet during the regular Season is the SEC, as I'm a HUGE Arkansas fan, as I've mentioned before. I took a long look at Ole' Miss at Kentucky, but a longer one at Vanderbilt +4.5 at Florida, which is where my action is tonight. Line has moved to +4, but I'd still take it - Vandy doesn't look like a Team that's going to lose 2 in a row in SEC play, and they are STINGING MAD after getting beaten soundly at home by the Hogs on Saturday. The Commodores are a legit Top 25 Team, who stumbled and will be looking to bounce back. So is Florida, coming off a hard fought road loss at Miss St, and prior to that struggled vs SEC doormat Georgia at home, winning in double OT. In my opinion, the Gators are descending, while the Commodores are ascending...one of these 2 is going to have lost 2 straight by the end of tonight, and I think it's more likely to be the Gators. Small play, 1u at most.
So, +4.5 cashed in, and +4 pushed...brush with disaster as the refs tried to give the game and the cover away in the final seconds of OT with an unbelievable no-call that would have put Vanderbilt's #2-in-the-nation free throw shooter at the line, shooting 3, and with a 1 point lead, which would have likely ended up in a straight up W, instead, had to sweat out the cover til the end...btw, nice cover bmj...Tonight's SEC: you can still get Arkansas +1, and +100 ML, playing at home tonight vs Georgia...it's absolutely absurd that Georgia is favored in this game, but the line is artificially low because they took Florida to 2OT before eventually losing at home, and then travelling to Kentucky and only losing by 6 to the #16 Wildcats...

...this is UGA's 2nd road game (back to back) in 5 days, and the trip to Arkansas is a long one, and the weather is not good, additional stress Meanwhile, Arkansas just beat Vanderbilt at Vandy, overcoming a significant hurdle by getting a tough SEC road W. The Hogs showed a rhythm and flow in that Game that has me thinking they have put it together on both sides of the court. Their remaining schedule, besides Alabama, Kentucky and @Miss St, is quite soft; they could literally go 7-3, so the @Vandy win was a big one, because at 14-6/4-3, winning all the games they should win would land them in the tournament...

They know this, and this is a game they 'should' win, the 1st one playing with that mindset.

Arkansas +1, Even, -1, whatever...this is a multi-unit play. Good Luck!
This is why shopping for the best line is so important, hope you got +1
 
Thoughts on any more movement on the line and o/u on the SB?
ML GB -145spread GB -2.5 -120Total 44.5Those are pretty much the widely available numbers. you can probably find pit +3 at square shops but i think this is where the line is going to stay. It'll take piles of money to get pit +3 -110 widely available and these are 2 really public teams, money seems pretty split right now.
I personally think the Pitt ML numbers are going to start to go away. Many Pitt bettors will just take the ML and not worry about the points. I'd be SHOCKED to see +130 WA on gameday. I've seen this before, square shops like bodog won't even post a ML on the game. SIA already giving -135 for the Pack ML. Pack bettors will lay the pts and Pitt bettors will take ML, it's inevitable. If Giants backers from 2007 took +350-+400 on the ML with a spread of 13 then you know for sure Pitt backers will be taking ML. I highly doubt I will but the smart play will be to take Pack -130 ml and take 3 -120 with Pitt.
 
What is a good book for college basketball totals? I never used to bet them but I'm trying to get into it and sportsbook, sportsbetting, and bodog barely offer any.
5dimes.comthegreek.comboth post totals on every CBB gamebookmaker.com posts tv totals overnight and then all totals right before gametimethere are a few others but those are the 3 that are easiest to deposit and withdraw.
 
Haven't seem much on "first TD". Other then Jennings and Mendenhall, the Field is the next in terms of price. I think that speaks volumes to the fact that it could really be anyone this year.

 
Is this going to be an off the charts record watched Super bowl?

I don't think so - Under 46 Nielsen Rating is a bet for me.

Past ratings:

2010 45.0 (Ind, NO)

2009 42.0 (Pit, Ari)

2008 43.1 (NE. NYG)

2007 42.6 (Chi, Ind)

2006 41.6 (Sea, Pit)

2005 41.1 (Phi, NE)

2004 41.1 (Car, NE)

2003 40.7 (TB, Oak)

2002 40.4 (STL, NE)

2001 40.4 (Bal, NYG)

2000 43.3 (STL, Ten)

1999 40.2 (ATL, Den)

 
Is this going to be an off the charts record watched Super bowl?I don't think so - Under 46 Nielsen Rating is a bet for me.Past ratings:2010 45.0 (Ind, NO)2009 42.0 (Pit, Ari)2008 43.1 (NE. NYG)2007 42.6 (Chi, Ind)2006 41.6 (Sea, Pit) 2005 41.1 (Phi, NE)2004 41.1 (Car, NE)2003 40.7 (TB, Oak)2002 40.4 (STL, NE)2001 40.4 (Bal, NYG)2000 43.3 (STL, Ten)1999 40.2 (ATL, Den)
Careful... 1) Bad Winter = Lots of people staying indoors2) PItt / Green Bay = Two of the biggest fan bases in the NFL w/ widespread mass appeal3) Notice the trend? (bottom to top)
 
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Is this going to be an off the charts record watched Super bowl?I don't think so - Under 46 Nielsen Rating is a bet for me.Past ratings:2010 45.0 (Ind, NO)2009 42.0 (Pit, Ari)2008 43.1 (NE. NYG)2007 42.6 (Chi, Ind)2006 41.6 (Sea, Pit) 2005 41.1 (Phi, NE)2004 41.1 (Car, NE)2003 40.7 (TB, Oak)2002 40.4 (STL, NE)2001 40.4 (Bal, NYG)2000 43.3 (STL, Ten)1999 40.2 (ATL, Den)
Careful... 1) Bad Winter = Lots of people staying indoors2) PItt / Green Bay = Two of the biggest fan bases in the NFL w/ widespread mass appeal3) Notice the trend? (bottom to top)
Agree on all, but even back in the 80's when the super bowl was at it's high it never went over a 46.It's an exotic with a $50 max, if they set a record this year then so be it.
 
What is a good book for college basketball totals? I never used to bet them but I'm trying to get into it and sportsbook, sportsbetting, and bodog barely offer any.
5dimes.comthegreek.comboth post totals on every CBB gamebookmaker.com posts tv totals overnight and then all totals right before gametimethere are a few others but those are the 3 that are easiest to deposit and withdraw.
Thank you sir.
 
Is this going to be an off the charts record watched Super bowl?I don't think so - Under 46 Nielsen Rating is a bet for me.Past ratings:2010 45.0 (Ind, NO)2009 42.0 (Pit, Ari)2008 43.1 (NE. NYG)2007 42.6 (Chi, Ind)2006 41.6 (Sea, Pit) 2005 41.1 (Phi, NE)2004 41.1 (Car, NE)2003 40.7 (TB, Oak)2002 40.4 (STL, NE)2001 40.4 (Bal, NYG)2000 43.3 (STL, Ten)1999 40.2 (ATL, Den)
Careful... 1) Bad Winter = Lots of people staying indoors2) PItt / Green Bay = Two of the biggest fan bases in the NFL w/ widespread mass appeal3) Notice the trend? (bottom to top)
Agree on all, but even back in the 80's when the super bowl was at it's high it never went over a 46.It's an exotic with a $50 max, if they set a record this year then so be it.
I think Icon is saying the number is going up simply because our country is getting larger and more people are hence tuning into the game.I would agree with the ref though and bet un 46 especially at + odds. Only thing about that is you are rooting for a boring game.
 
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Is this going to be an off the charts record watched Super bowl?I don't think so - Under 46 Nielsen Rating is a bet for me.Past ratings:2010 45.0 (Ind, NO)2009 42.0 (Pit, Ari)2008 43.1 (NE. NYG)2007 42.6 (Chi, Ind)2006 41.6 (Sea, Pit) 2005 41.1 (Phi, NE)2004 41.1 (Car, NE)2003 40.7 (TB, Oak)2002 40.4 (STL, NE)2001 40.4 (Bal, NYG)2000 43.3 (STL, Ten)1999 40.2 (ATL, Den)
Careful... 1) Bad Winter = Lots of people staying indoors2) PItt / Green Bay = Two of the biggest fan bases in the NFL w/ widespread mass appeal3) Notice the trend? (bottom to top)
Agree on all, but even back in the 80's when the super bowl was at it's high it never went over a 46.It's an exotic with a $50 max, if they set a record this year then so be it.
:thumbup: I'm certainly not saying don't place the bet... I'm just saying it could be close. That said at + odds I might throw a little cash on it.ETA: 40 cent line... ouch. No way I'm touching that:Over 46 Nielsen Rating -120 Under 46 Nielsen Rating -120
 
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I think Icon is saying the number is going up simply because our country is getting larger and more people are hence tuning into the game.
Ratings = Share = Percentage of viewership. Doesn't matter about the nation getting bigger.. it's just what percentage of households are tuned to the game.
 
I think Icon is saying the number is going up simply because our country is getting larger and more people are hence tuning into the game.
Ratings = Share = Percentage of viewership. Doesn't matter about the nation getting bigger.. it's just what percentage of households are tuned to the game.
So why has it gone up every year? Has the nfl become more popular? Is our country and culture more technology based? TVs, internet, etc?
 
Agree on all, but even back in the 80's when the super bowl was at it's high it never went over a 46.
Well, not being at it's max kind of helps it go over 46... fewer big parties where everyone is at one place watching it will result in a higher percentage of TVs tuned to it :goodposting:
 
I think Icon is saying the number is going up simply because our country is getting larger and more people are hence tuning into the game.
Ratings = Share = Percentage of viewership. Doesn't matter about the nation getting bigger.. it's just what percentage of households are tuned to the game.
So why has it gone up every year? Has the nfl become more popular? Is our country and culture more technology based? TVs, internet, etc?
It doesn't matter how many TVs there are. That is calculated annually and then share is extrapolated based on that sample size.
The most commonly cited Nielsen results are reported in two measurements: ratings points and share, usually reported as: "ratings points/share". As of September 1, 2010, there are an estimated 115.9 million television households in the United States. A single national ratings point represents one percent of the total number, or 1,159,000 households for the 2010–11 season.[2] Nielsen re-estimates the number of TV-equipped households each August for the upcoming television season.
 
everything so far. I'm actually not in too bad of shape compared to last year. I made 5 more bets at this time last year then this year. Sportsbook cutting me to $100 max props has limited what I can get down money-wise. Still not too many great, great bets like I had last year. Only dud I think is GB un 4 rushers +130. I'd certainly like a re-do on that one.

Over 42' -115

Wild Card team wins SB -115

Pitt +3' -145

1q un 10 -125

GB rec. opening kick -105

Raji 1st td 20000

National anthem ov 1:50 -120

National anthem ov 1:50 -140

National anthem ov 1:52 -120

National anthem ov 1:53 -125

MVP not a qb 250

Obama picks Pitt to win -140

Obama picks Pitt to win -182

Driver +.5 rec over Ward 1h -130

Player to do Lambeau Leap 200

Carey Price saves over B. Jackson rush/rec 100

Orl/Bos greater MOV then Super Bowl -115

Masthay no TB -210

Kuhn ov 4' long rec -115

Wallace ov 24' long rec -115

Harrison ov 6 tackles -120

Redman un 3' rush att -160

Redman un 3' yds 1st att -135

Un 4 Packers to have rush att 130

Over 3 Steelers to score -160

Under 7.5 Steelers have a rec -180

James Jones un 10 rec yds 800

Jason Richardson pts -4.5 over SB MOV -115

Rondo pts/reb/### +7.5 over Jones rec yds -115

Rodgers ints +.5 over Ovechkin pts -145

Ovechkin shots +.5 over sacks 100

2q pts over Griffin rebs -115

Randle el ov 1 rec -115

Randle el un 15.5 rec yds -120

Over 2.5 Brett Favre references -125

Shortest fg ov 21.5 yds -115

Wallace 1st rec ov 7.5 yds -115

Game will not be tied -120

Jackson more rec then Quarless 115 and 120

Raji un .5 sacks -105

Ben un 1 int 105

Ben un 1 int -115

Rodgers un 2 td passes -125

shortest rush td ov 1.5 yds 125

Ben ov 1.5 pass tds 110

Ben un 1.5 tds 115

Ben un 1.5 tds 115

Ben un 1.5 tds 100

Ben un 1.5 tds 110

Wallace un 4 rec -115

3s by Miami/LAC over length of 1st td pass -115

Ben +4.5 comp over Rodgers -105

Hines 1st rec ov 7.5 yds -115

Heath longest rec over Quarless -175

Clay un 4.5 tackles 102

Redman un 1 rec -300

Heath ov 38.5 yds -130

Heath 1st rec ov 7.5 -130

Masthay long ov 54.5 -120

Masthay longer punt then Kapinos -135

no scoreless quarter -270

Jackson un 6 longest rush -140

Heath longest rec ov 14.5 yds -125

Heath 1st rec ov 7.5 -125

Rodgers ov 34.5 attempts -125

Rodgers ov 33.5 attempts -120

Nelson ov 3 rec -133

Nelson ov 3.5 rec 105

 
Not sure how much this will impact things but espn ran this story about the refs:

link
Gotta be good for defenses. Maybe bet penalties under? If no penalties are going to be called (or less then usual) advantage to the defense who can maul WRs.
Who is responsible for PI calls? What are the numbers like of the remainder of the staff?
I don't think they go into detail on every guy. They are using an all-star crew so the back judge who is responsible for PI, defensive holding may be from a different crew. I don't think they track things like that. And I should refute my statement, since it's an all-star crew no way of telling if the other referee's call a lot of penalties or not. It may be good to fade my thought above.

 
Hockey prop time.

Three Stars Toronto over team 29.5 and Two stars O Grabovski 3 P&S, O Kessel 3.5 S.

Guess he likes Toronto at home.

 
Road team outperformed in the 2nd half in 3 early games moved because of weather. Hopefully can find more games from previous years to see if this is credible.

Creighton 25, Bradley 25

Creighton 36, Bradley 44

Baylor 39, Oklahoma 34

Baylor 27, Oklahoma 39

Toledo 37, Buffalo 42

Toledo 21, Buffalo 39

 
Road team outperformed in the 2nd half in 3 early games moved because of weather. Hopefully can find more games from previous years to see if this is credible. Creighton 25, Bradley 25Creighton 36, Bradley 44
Fwiw, Creighton has been getting outperformed in the 2nd half all season regardless of whether they're on the road or at home.
 

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