FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (12 Viewers)

[Arizona Ron]

It's at 84% Pat 16% Miami. Should move again before it starts.

 

[culdeus]

It's at 84% Pat 16% Miami. Should move again before it starts.

meaningless stat

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm all about Miami +7

I can't figure out how they're gonna score, brah. You saw glimpses of the Pats' upgraded D in the preseason. Just wait til the hounds get unleashed for real.

 

[Arizona Ron]

It's at 84% Pat 16% Miami. Should move again before it starts.

meaningless stat

XThe Books like the bets even on both sides. When the games are THIS lopsided, they move the number to get more people to take the dog.

 

[culdeus]

It's at 84% Pat 16% Miami. Should move again before it starts.

meaningless stat

XThe Books like the bets even on both sides. When the games are THIS lopsided, they move the number to get more people to take the dog.

How do you know the money is not even? What does this stat tell you? 5000 guys making min bets one one side vs 1000 rolling dimes and it's money weighted 66/33 Miami, but they post 16/84. And those don't take into account money line weight which can be easily 10:1 dog on a game like this.

 

[Arizona Ron]

It's at 84% Pat 16% Miami. Should move again before it starts.

meaningless stat

XThe Books like the bets even on both sides. When the games are THIS lopsided, they move the number to get more people to take the dog.

How do you know the money is not even? What does this stat tell you? 5000 guys making min bets one one side vs 1000 rolling dimes and it's money weighted 66/33 Miami, but they post 16/84. And those don't take into account money line weight which can be easily 10:1 dog on a game like this.

Because that number is money not number of bets.

 

[culdeus]

It's at 84% Pat 16% Miami. Should move again before it starts.

meaningless stat

XThe Books like the bets even on both sides. When the games are THIS lopsided, they move the number to get more people to take the dog.

How do you know the money is not even? What does this stat tell you? 5000 guys making min bets one one side vs 1000 rolling dimes and it's money weighted 66/33 Miami, but they post 16/84. And those don't take into account money line weight which can be easily 10:1 dog on a game like this.

Because that number is money not number of bets.

Most sites that publish this data like wagerline, or most of the betting sites like bodog are posting number of bets.

 

[nittanylion]

You know, one thing I'd give a nut or a kidney to know: what sides/totals action the big sportsbooks/casinos/houses play...because we know they DO play, damn them.

 

[Arizona Ron]

It's at 84% Pat 16% Miami. Should move again before it starts.

meaningless stat

XThe Books like the bets even on both sides. When the games are THIS lopsided, they move the number to get more people to take the dog.

How do you know the money is not even? What does this stat tell you? 5000 guys making min bets one one side vs 1000 rolling dimes and it's money weighted 66/33 Miami, but they post 16/84. And those don't take into account money line weight which can be easily 10:1 dog on a game like this.

Because that number is money not number of bets.

Most sites that publish this data like wagerline, or most of the betting sites like bodog are posting number of bets.

I got this number from my friend who works at MGM sports book in Vages. Whenever there is lopsided money, he'll give me call/text.

 

[Angry Beavers]

First couple of plays this season:

NE-1/Oak +9/ NE/MIA U 52

NE -1/Oak +9/ Det -2

I can't see how MIA keeps this close with Chad Henne at the controls and obviously think NE wins but everyone and their brother liking MIA is enough to make me not want to just blindly take NE. I just don't see those squads getting to 52 points either. I could be wrong here with all of the overs that happened yesterday (Early season phenomona with the lockout and lack of hitting in the preseason practices.. who knows? Could be something to watch for in coming weeks)

OAK could win outright IMHO. OAK played really well down the stretch last year and being a divisional game anything can happen. Laugh if you want, but Campbell is underrated IMHO. I think McFadden and CO. will be too much for DEN and if nothing else, like OAK + a boatload of points

I added DET looking ahead to next Sunday. KC is really banged up with the loss of their SS and their offense is a mess since Weis left. FWIW, NO technically falls into teaser territory as well at -7, but with Colston hurt and that D not looking great on Thursday, I am not sure that CHI does not go into NO and wins outright next Sunday. I may put a little on that CHI ML by Sunday.

GLTA

AB

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I played miami +7

I'm all about Miami +7

in

 

[Raider Nation]

NE-1/Oak +9/ NE/MIA U 52

Love this.Also, I'm looking at the Oak/Den under. This isn't the Josh McDaniels offense in Denver anymore. It's John Fox's 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense. That will certainly run some clock, and the Broncos' defense looks to be much improved as well.

 

[Arizona Ron]

Miami +8 for 2

Miami +8 & Over 47 for 1

Mia/NE Over 47 for 2

 

[nittanylion]

I'd sure like to put my hand up Fergie's dress.

 

[Arizona Ron]

DAMN! MIAMI LOOKING GOOD

 

[modogg]

loving the patriots -7 tonight.

You know what the problem is? I love the Patriots tonight. So does my Wagering pal. So does my barber and my doorman. Everybody loves the Patriots tonight. So why is the line "only 7".Last game like this was the AFC Divisional round when it was Jets +4 and we all know how that turned out

Another one i wish i would have saw earlier, very good points. I feel like i played the squarest of the square plays this week, not even sure how it ended up that way, but this NE game does seem to have a Miami win written all over it

 

[Johnny Detroit]

1) no % feed is money. it is all % of bets. 100% sure on this. i have the feeds for a handful of books (posted the one below from sports interaction)

2) teasers are not sucker bets IF you go thru 3 and 7 and do not overpay on juice.

3) public is not moving MNF drastically. or hardly at all. reason all books have the same line. book can have 100% of the bets on one side and if CRIS or GREEK move, they are moving or at the very least weighting the juice. i did a recap on this here: http://snd.sc/oqzWUS

<bettingtrendsfeed><eventcategory id="2"><name>American Football</name><eventtype id="25"><name>NFL</name><game id="351379"><name>Oakland at Denver</name><event id="2120758"><date>2011-09-13 03:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8721587" percentage="45" nssnumber="481">Oakland</runner><runner id="8721588" percentage="55" nssnumber="482">Denver</runner></event><event id="2120757"><date>2011-09-13 03:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8721585" percentage="84" nssnumber="481">Over</runner><runner id="8721586" percentage="16" nssnumber="482">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355254"><name>Chicago at New Orleans</name><event id="2162649"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858789" percentage="38" nssnumber="197">Chicago</runner><runner id="8858790" percentage="62" nssnumber="198">New Orleans</runner></event><event id="2162647"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858787" percentage="100" nssnumber="197">Over</runner><runner id="8858788" percentage="0" nssnumber="198">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355255"><name>Kansas City at Detroit</name><event id="2162658"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858807" percentage="26" nssnumber="199">Kansas City</runner><runner id="8858808" percentage="74" nssnumber="200">Detroit</runner></event><event id="2162657"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858805" percentage="75" nssnumber="199">Over</runner><runner id="8858806" percentage="25" nssnumber="200">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355256"><name>Jacksonville at NY Jets</name><event id="2162667"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858825" percentage="27" nssnumber="201">Jacksonville</runner><runner id="8858826" percentage="73" nssnumber="202">NY Jets</runner></event><event id="2162666"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858823" percentage="0" nssnumber="201">Over</runner><runner id="8858824" percentage="0" nssnumber="202">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355257"><name>Oakland at Buffalo</name><event id="2162676"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858843" percentage="0" nssnumber="203">Oakland</runner><runner id="8858844" percentage="0" nssnumber="204">Buffalo</runner></event><event id="2162675"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858841" percentage="0" nssnumber="203">Over</runner><runner id="8858842" percentage="0" nssnumber="204">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355258"><name>Arizona at Washington</name><event id="2162685"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858861" percentage="41" nssnumber="205">Arizona</runner><runner id="8858862" percentage="59" nssnumber="206">Washington</runner></event><event id="2162684"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858859" percentage="75" nssnumber="205">Over</runner><runner id="8858860" percentage="25" nssnumber="206">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355259"><name>Baltimore at Tennessee</name><event id="2162694"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858879" percentage="94" nssnumber="207">Baltimore</runner><runner id="8858880" percentage="6" nssnumber="208">Tennessee</runner></event><event id="2162693"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858877" percentage="33" nssnumber="207">Over</runner><runner id="8858878" percentage="67" nssnumber="208">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355260"><name>Seattle at Pittsburgh</name><event id="2162703"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858897" percentage="28" nssnumber="209">Seattle</runner><runner id="8858898" percentage="72" nssnumber="210">Pittsburgh</runner></event><event id="2162702"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858895" percentage="100" nssnumber="209">Over</runner><runner id="8858896" percentage="0" nssnumber="210">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355261"><name>Green Bay at Carolina</name><event id="2162712"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858915" percentage="85" nssnumber="211">Green Bay</runner><runner id="8858916" percentage="15" nssnumber="212">Carolina</runner></event><event id="2162711"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858913" percentage="100" nssnumber="211">Over</runner><runner id="8858914" percentage="0" nssnumber="212">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355262"><name>Tampa Bay at Minnesota</name><event id="2162721"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858933" percentage="30" nssnumber="213">Tampa Bay</runner><runner id="8858934" percentage="70" nssnumber="214">Minnesota</runner></event><event id="2162720"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858931" percentage="100" nssnumber="213">Over</runner><runner id="8858932" percentage="0" nssnumber="214">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355263"><name>Cleveland at Indianapolis</name><event id="2162730"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858951" percentage="47" nssnumber="215">Cleveland</runner><runner id="8858952" percentage="53" nssnumber="216">Indianapolis</runner></event><event id="2162729"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858949" percentage="17" nssnumber="215">Over</runner><runner id="8858950" percentage="83" nssnumber="216">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355264"><name>Dallas at San Francisco</name><event id="2162739"><date>2011-09-18 21:05:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858969" percentage="92" nssnumber="217">Dallas</runner><runner id="8858970" percentage="8" nssnumber="218">San Francisco</runner></event><event id="2162738"><date>2011-09-18 21:05:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858967" percentage="0" nssnumber="217">Over</runner><runner id="8858968" percentage="0" nssnumber="218">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355265"><name>Houston at Miami</name><event id="2162748"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858987" percentage="0" nssnumber="219">Houston</runner><runner id="8858988" percentage="0" nssnumber="220">Miami</runner></event><event id="2162747"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858985" percentage="0" nssnumber="219">Over</runner><runner id="8858986" percentage="0" nssnumber="220">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355266"><name>San Diego at New England</name><event id="2162757"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859005" percentage="0" nssnumber="221">San Diego</runner><runner id="8859006" percentage="0" nssnumber="222">New England</runner></event><event id="2162756"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859003" percentage="0" nssnumber="221">Over</runner><runner id="8859004" percentage="0" nssnumber="222">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355267"><name>Cincinnati at Denver</name><event id="2162766"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859023" percentage="0" nssnumber="223">Cincinnati</runner><runner id="8859024" percentage="0" nssnumber="224">Denver</runner></event><event id="2162765"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859021" percentage="0" nssnumber="223">Over</runner><runner id="8859022" percentage="0" nssnumber="224">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355268"><name>Philadelphia at Atlanta</name><event id="2162775"><date>2011-09-19 01:25:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859041" percentage="84" nssnumber="225">Philadelphia</runner><runner id="8859042" percentage="16" nssnumber="226">Atlanta</runner></event><event id="2162774"><date>2011-09-19 01:25:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859039" percentage="0" nssnumber="225">Over</runner><runner id="8859040" percentage="0" nssnumber="226">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355269"><name>St Louis at NY Giants</name><event id="2162785"><date>2011-09-20 01:35:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859061" percentage="0" nssnumber="227">St Louis</runner><runner id="8859062" percentage="0" nssnumber="228">NY Giants</runner></event><event id="2162784"><date>2011-09-20 01:35:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859059" percentage="0" nssnumber="227">Over</runner><runner id="8859060" percentage="0" nssnumber="228">Under</runner></event></game></eventtype></eventcategory></bettingtrendsfeed>

 

[Arizona Ron]

1) no % feed is money. it is all % of bets. 100% sure on this. i have the feeds for a handful of books (posted the one below from sports interaction)

2) teasers are not sucker bets IF you go thru 3 and 7 and do not overpay on juice.

3) public is not moving MNF drastically. or hardly at all. reason all books have the same line. book can have 100% of the bets on one side and if CRIS or GREEK move, they are moving or at the very least weighting the juice. i did a recap on this here: http://snd.sc/oqzWUS

<bettingtrendsfeed><eventcategory id="2"><name>American Football</name><eventtype id="25"><name>NFL</name><game id="351379"><name>Oakland at Denver</name><event id="2120758"><date>2011-09-13 03:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8721587" percentage="45" nssnumber="481">Oakland</runner><runner id="8721588" percentage="55" nssnumber="482">Denver</runner></event><event id="2120757"><date>2011-09-13 03:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8721585" percentage="84" nssnumber="481">Over</runner><runner id="8721586" percentage="16" nssnumber="482">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355254"><name>Chicago at New Orleans</name><event id="2162649"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858789" percentage="38" nssnumber="197">Chicago</runner><runner id="8858790" percentage="62" nssnumber="198">New Orleans</runner></event><event id="2162647"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858787" percentage="100" nssnumber="197">Over</runner><runner id="8858788" percentage="0" nssnumber="198">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355255"><name>Kansas City at Detroit</name><event id="2162658"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858807" percentage="26" nssnumber="199">Kansas City</runner><runner id="8858808" percentage="74" nssnumber="200">Detroit</runner></event><event id="2162657"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858805" percentage="75" nssnumber="199">Over</runner><runner id="8858806" percentage="25" nssnumber="200">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355256"><name>Jacksonville at NY Jets</name><event id="2162667"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858825" percentage="27" nssnumber="201">Jacksonville</runner><runner id="8858826" percentage="73" nssnumber="202">NY Jets</runner></event><event id="2162666"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858823" percentage="0" nssnumber="201">Over</runner><runner id="8858824" percentage="0" nssnumber="202">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355257"><name>Oakland at Buffalo</name><event id="2162676"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858843" percentage="0" nssnumber="203">Oakland</runner><runner id="8858844" percentage="0" nssnumber="204">Buffalo</runner></event><event id="2162675"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858841" percentage="0" nssnumber="203">Over</runner><runner id="8858842" percentage="0" nssnumber="204">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355258"><name>Arizona at Washington</name><event id="2162685"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858861" percentage="41" nssnumber="205">Arizona</runner><runner id="8858862" percentage="59" nssnumber="206">Washington</runner></event><event id="2162684"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858859" percentage="75" nssnumber="205">Over</runner><runner id="8858860" percentage="25" nssnumber="206">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355259"><name>Baltimore at Tennessee</name><event id="2162694"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858879" percentage="94" nssnumber="207">Baltimore</runner><runner id="8858880" percentage="6" nssnumber="208">Tennessee</runner></event><event id="2162693"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858877" percentage="33" nssnumber="207">Over</runner><runner id="8858878" percentage="67" nssnumber="208">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355260"><name>Seattle at Pittsburgh</name><event id="2162703"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858897" percentage="28" nssnumber="209">Seattle</runner><runner id="8858898" percentage="72" nssnumber="210">Pittsburgh</runner></event><event id="2162702"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858895" percentage="100" nssnumber="209">Over</runner><runner id="8858896" percentage="0" nssnumber="210">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355261"><name>Green Bay at Carolina</name><event id="2162712"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858915" percentage="85" nssnumber="211">Green Bay</runner><runner id="8858916" percentage="15" nssnumber="212">Carolina</runner></event><event id="2162711"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858913" percentage="100" nssnumber="211">Over</runner><runner id="8858914" percentage="0" nssnumber="212">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355262"><name>Tampa Bay at Minnesota</name><event id="2162721"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858933" percentage="30" nssnumber="213">Tampa Bay</runner><runner id="8858934" percentage="70" nssnumber="214">Minnesota</runner></event><event id="2162720"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858931" percentage="100" nssnumber="213">Over</runner><runner id="8858932" percentage="0" nssnumber="214">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355263"><name>Cleveland at Indianapolis</name><event id="2162730"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858951" percentage="47" nssnumber="215">Cleveland</runner><runner id="8858952" percentage="53" nssnumber="216">Indianapolis</runner></event><event id="2162729"><date>2011-09-18 18:00:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858949" percentage="17" nssnumber="215">Over</runner><runner id="8858950" percentage="83" nssnumber="216">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355264"><name>Dallas at San Francisco</name><event id="2162739"><date>2011-09-18 21:05:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858969" percentage="92" nssnumber="217">Dallas</runner><runner id="8858970" percentage="8" nssnumber="218">San Francisco</runner></event><event id="2162738"><date>2011-09-18 21:05:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858967" percentage="0" nssnumber="217">Over</runner><runner id="8858968" percentage="0" nssnumber="218">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355265"><name>Houston at Miami</name><event id="2162748"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8858987" percentage="0" nssnumber="219">Houston</runner><runner id="8858988" percentage="0" nssnumber="220">Miami</runner></event><event id="2162747"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8858985" percentage="0" nssnumber="219">Over</runner><runner id="8858986" percentage="0" nssnumber="220">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355266"><name>San Diego at New England</name><event id="2162757"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859005" percentage="0" nssnumber="221">San Diego</runner><runner id="8859006" percentage="0" nssnumber="222">New England</runner></event><event id="2162756"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859003" percentage="0" nssnumber="221">Over</runner><runner id="8859004" percentage="0" nssnumber="222">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355267"><name>Cincinnati at Denver</name><event id="2162766"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859023" percentage="0" nssnumber="223">Cincinnati</runner><runner id="8859024" percentage="0" nssnumber="224">Denver</runner></event><event id="2162765"><date>2011-09-18 21:15:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859021" percentage="0" nssnumber="223">Over</runner><runner id="8859022" percentage="0" nssnumber="224">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355268"><name>Philadelphia at Atlanta</name><event id="2162775"><date>2011-09-19 01:25:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859041" percentage="84" nssnumber="225">Philadelphia</runner><runner id="8859042" percentage="16" nssnumber="226">Atlanta</runner></event><event id="2162774"><date>2011-09-19 01:25:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859039" percentage="0" nssnumber="225">Over</runner><runner id="8859040" percentage="0" nssnumber="226">Under</runner></event></game><game id="355269"><name>St Louis at NY Giants</name><event id="2162785"><date>2011-09-20 01:35:00.0</date><bettype>Spread</bettype><runner id="8859061" percentage="0" nssnumber="227">St Louis</runner><runner id="8859062" percentage="0" nssnumber="228">NY Giants</runner></event><event id="2162784"><date>2011-09-20 01:35:00.0</date><bettype>Over/Under</bettype><runner id="8859059" percentage="0" nssnumber="227">Over</runner><runner id="8859060" percentage="0" nssnumber="228">Under</runner></event></game></eventtype></eventcategory></bettingtrendsfeed>

 

[The Ref]

Thoughts on 2h?

 

[The Ref]

Took over 22.5 for a unit. Still playing for a middle between 4 and 7.5

 

[modogg]

Thoughts on 2h?

i went with Mia +3.5, simply to hedge the money I have on NE-7.

 

[lumpy19]

o22.5 2h, c'mon 44 or 45!!

 

[The Ref]

Looks like pats and over got hammered. Took some 3q over 10 and bush > 48 yards.

 

[optionmaven]

Thoughts on 2h?

adjusted 2nd half spread, miami -3.5 +280. seems worth a shot.

 

[The Ref]

Well-anyone on Miami likes that start. As does anyone who is on the over.

 

[The Ref]

Guess I dont mind getting +105 to take the raiders plus 3?

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Guess I dont mind getting +105 to take the raiders plus 3?

I like the juice but not sure about the line. Seems like a game that could really go either way to me. I want to bet the Raiders but am restraining myself on this one.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Broncos will win this game tonight, just so you know.

 

[The Ref]

Interersted in what the 2H total will be here.

I think anything under 24 and I'm going over.

 

[The Ref]

Interersted in what the 2H total will be here. I think anything under 24 and I'm going over.

19.5? Yes please.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Horrible call on Denver, this one's over already. Congrats Raiders-backers, easy money, right up there with Houston this weekend.

Taking the over 19.5 flags in the second half.

 

[Raider Nation]

Overs were 12-3-1 this week.

 

[Arizona Ron]

Overs were 12-3-1 this week.

Crazy, it's going to push the lines higher next week. PHI/ATL is at 50 now; that's a college O/U!!!

 

[John Bender]

I was 3-12 this week in the NFL

This is why we can't have nice things

 

[Arizona Ron]

I was 3-12 this week in the NFL

This is why we can't have nice things

Ouch, this is usually me with college ball. GB the NFL for saving my weekend.

 

[culdeus]

Lol at Seattle a 16 point Dog versus a team that got shelled their first week.

 

[JaxBill]

Looking at BUF -4 vs OAK

Raiders won in DEN Monday night. Fly back to Oakland. Then fly east for a 1 PM start.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

found out brick and mortar vegas sells their three team teasers for -140. That was kind a bummer. Didn't play any. How'd they do?

 

[culdeus]

Right now I havePitdetchihoutenAZSDNE

Teasers did find last weekend for those that could get accounts funded on time. Pit was a big bust but the rest of them all hit.

 

[[icon]]

This coming weekend I LOVE: NE -1 / GBP -4 as a 6pt Tease.

Already played it for 2u. May pile more on. Both teams look like men among boys out there. Packers should have little issue with the Panthers and San Diego's traditional early season woes should continue at Gillette after barely squeaking by a dreadful MIN squad at home.

 

[Dexter Manley]

1st batch of newsletters just went out.I love to gamble. I am also not afraid to admit that I love to gamble when there is no edge in my favor. For every time I find an arbitrage where if you bet $1000.00 on Team A at +130 and $1250.00 on Team B at -120 and win $45.00 no matter who wins (once per day makes you an extra $16,000 per year), Mr. Johnny Detroit is a sucker for a Wheel of Fortune slot machine in hopes of getting to hear "Wheel....of.....Fortuneeeee". I love pools. I love squares. I really love contests. So besides playing in numerous fantasy leagues, I plan to enter tons of handicapping contests for the upcoming football season. Out of all these unique football contests, one of my favorites is the infamous NFL Survivor Contest where you pick one team per week with no spread and move on if you win under the ruling that the chosen team can never be picked again. So being a betting nerd and a betting junkie at the same time, I am going into the contest this year with a strategy that should increase my chances of winning. Nothing is 100% and with all the babbling and math you are about to read, there is still the chance I get knocked out in week #1 and the waitress who picks the nice jersey each week cashes out in the end. So here we go.....First off I pulled the projected lines for the NFL season by Cantor Gaming for their Las Vegas properties (Cosmopolitan, Hard Rock, M, Venetian, Tropicana, etc). Four Cantor oddsmakers set lines for each game individually and after the games were reviewed, Mike Colbert (Cantor's overall race and sports director) made the final ruling. These numbers were released in June.Second, I pulled the projected season win totals and focused on the teams expected to be bottom dwellers. The Carolina Panthers are only expected to win 4-5 games this season and I can play against them 6 to 7 times on the road as close to double digit underdogs each time. Teams favored by 10 or more at home win at around a 84.4% clip. Yes, I am quite aware of the "any given Sunday" stuff, but you can't pass up something winning at that type or percentage.Third, the schedule was reviewed and emphasis was put on homes teams and the ability to not use the top tiered teams until they provided the most bang for their buck. For example, why use New England Patriots on the road -7.0 in week #1 when they could be saved until week #11 at home as potential -11.5 favorites over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. In week #11 and being a -10.0+ favorite at home the Patriots (using long term historically data) are 84.4% to win outright versus being 73% in week #1 on the road at -7.0. Overall a home favorite of -7.0 should win outright 82% of the time, while a road favorite of -7.0 is at 76%. Taking the Cardinals over the Patriots might seem odd, but the math on each is close in week #1 and allows me to save the Patriots late and get a 84% scenario.Week 1: Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers (projected line -7.0, projected Carolina wins 4.5, projected Arizona wins 7.0, -7.0 home favorites 74%).Week 2: New York Jets over Jacksonville Jaguars (projected line -8.0, projected Jacksonville wins 6.5, projected New York Jets wins 10.0-11.0,-7.0+ home favorites 82%)Week 3: San Diego Charges over Kansas City Chiefs (projected line -6.0, projected Kansas City wins 7.5-8.0, projected San Diego wins 10, -6.0 home favorites 73%)Week 4: Chicago Bears over Carolina Panthers (projected line -12.0, projected Chicago wins 8.5-9.0, -10.0+ home favorites 84%)Week 5: New York Giants over Seattle Seahawks (projected line -7.5, projected Seattle wins 6.0-6.5, projected New York wins 9.0-9.5)Week 6: Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers (projected line -12.5, projected Atlanta wins 10.5-11.0)Week 7: Miami Dolphins over Denver Broncos (projected line Miami -6.0, projected Denver wins 5.5-6.0, projected Miami wins 7.5-8.0)Week 8: Baltimore Ravens over Arizona Cardinals (projected line -11.0, projected Baltimore wins 10.5-11.0)Week 9: Dallas Cowboys over Seattle Seahawks (projected line Dallas -6.5, projected Dallas wins 9.0-9.5)Week 10: Philadelphia Eagles over Arizona Cardinals (projected line -10.5, projected Philadelphia wins 10.5-11.0)Week 11: New England Patriots (MNF) over Kansas City Chiefs (projected line -10.0, projected New England win 11.5-12.0)**Week 12: Indianapolis Colts over Carolina Panthers (projected line with Manning -11.5) or back-up of St. Louis Cardinals over Arizona Cardinals (projected line -6.5, projected St. Louis wins 7.5-8.0)Week 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Carolina Panthers (projected line Tampa Bay -9.0, projected Tampa Bay wins 8.0)Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns (projected line -9.0, projected Pittsburgh wins 10.5-11.0)Week 15: Houston Texans over Carolina Panthers (projected line Houston -8.0, projected Houston wins 8.5-9.0)Week 16: Cincinnati Bengals over Arizona Cardinals (projected line -7.0, Cincinnati projected wins 6.0)Week 17: New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers (projected line -11.0, New Orleans projected wins 10.5-11.0)*all above selections are home teams**planned ahead in the event the Colts have no Manning and the back-up is a clusterEven though there is a 16% chance I lose in week #1, overall I think the above scenarios and scheduling gives me a great shot at getting deep into the tournament. In later weeks when most people exhaust teams like the Patriots, Steelers, or Saints I am not forced to take teams -3.0 or -4.0 where the outright win rate is only around 59%. Even if the Panthers shock the Cardinals this weekend, I stand behind the selections over the length of a complete season. Injuries or changes on a roster can totally toss the above out the window, but as of now it is based with the information available at time of this post. Regardless of the outcome, I wish everyone the best of luck this season and would love any feedback on where you agree or disagree with the picks above.

I took Arizona just like you did in week 1. I think I'm going to play Pittsburgh this week instead of week 14, however, and save the Jets for week 14 when they play KC at home.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Looking at BUF -4 vs OAKRaiders won in DEN Monday night. Fly back to Oakland. Then fly east for a 1 PM start.

This seems like a perfect example of the west going east angle, with it being a late monday road game yet.

 

[lumpy19]

Looking at BUF -4 vs OAKRaiders won in DEN Monday night. Fly back to Oakland. Then fly east for a 1 PM start.

This seems like a perfect example of the west going east angle, with it being a late monday road game yet.

Buf -3 -125 now available, I'll be on buffalo, I waited cause i thought this would get to 3, gonna wait a little longer and see if it migrates towards -3 -110 and then i'm on it

 

[culdeus]

What we liking teaser wise this week?

 

[[icon]]

What we liking teaser wise this week?

NE -1 / GBP -4 is juicy as hell IMO. Wish GBP were -3 but both teams looked unstoppable.

 

[lumpy19]

What we liking teaser wise this week?

NODetNYJ :X GB (hopefully but doubt it)IndyNE(if it stays at 7, which i doubt)Philly

 

[culdeus]

I like to think they are holding Indy in the ripe teaser zone as a bear trap.

 

[MarshallPlan]

What we liking teaser wise this week?

NODetNYJ :X GB (hopefully but doubt it)IndyNE(if it stays at 7, which i doubt)Philly

I think you meant Atl.

 

[optionmaven]

Any thoughts on Penn St. @ Temple. Line opened at 10 and is now 7.5. I liked PSU before the line movement, smells fishy.

 

[lumpy19]

What we liking teaser wise this week?

NODetNYJ :X GB (hopefully but doubt it)IndyNE(if it stays at 7, which i doubt)Philly

I think you meant Atl.

Indeed i did, 2nd week in a row i screwed up my list