The Ref
Footballguy
This is why we start slow. I didn't expect Florida to have 50 shots in the first period.'TheWick said:
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
The Ref
Footballguy
Looks like we should wait another few weeks to let trends develop. Hockey Prop 11-12 0-2 -2 units.This is why we start slow. I didn't expect Florida to have 50 shots in the first period.'TheWick said:
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
I have gotta say thanks to GooRoo and some nice runs of my own on teasers thus far this year, my account is getting to some pretty ridiculous levels (for me). The balance has increased over 1700% in the last 6 months and change. 
For those who are curious about sportbook payouts, I requested a low 4-figure check to filter some off the top on 10/04 and it went from "Processing" to "Processed" on 10/27. I presume it will hit the mailbox any day now. Will confirm when it clears. Ironically while the check was clearing my account balance basically doubled again.
For those who are not taking advantage of GooRoo's plays... shoot him a PM.
For those who are curious about sportbook payouts, I requested a low 4-figure check to filter some off the top on 10/04 and it went from "Processing" to "Processed" on 10/27. I presume it will hit the mailbox any day now. Will confirm when it clears. Ironically while the check was clearing my account balance basically doubled again.
For those who are not taking advantage of GooRoo's plays... shoot him a PM.
lumpy19
Footballguy
you still drunk? pats currently -8.5We need a little BUFFALO steam to get them off 1Atl -7
NO -8
NYJ +1.5(hopefully)(I already did my part and bet buffalo -1)
Oak -7.5
Cincy +2.5/3(I'll be on Tenn once it gets off 3)
NE -8.5
Phi -7
culdeus
Footballguy
During the black tuesday I was cut on props to (I forget) Maybe 25 or something. Could be 10 I'll check later. What win rate at such low stakes can be profitable?I have gotta say thanks to GooRoo and some nice runs of my own on teasers thus far this year, my account is getting to some pretty ridiculous levels (for me). The balance has increased over 1700% in the last 6 months and change.
[icon]
Insoxicated
Here are my early leans:FALCONS -1 at INDY WTF. INDY has a sagarin rating of 7.56 (DFL by a lot)... Falcons are 8th at 23.85. I understand home field is worth 3pts or so but C'mon.... What am I missing? SAINTS -2 vs TAMPA Saints got embarassed last week. Tampa is playing some pretty good ball right now but they're heading back to dome sweet dome. Love moving across all the keys here. JETS +7 at BUFFALO This is purely a system play but I don't know that I love it. Buffalo is playing well (4-0 at home) and the Jets have been wishy washy and horribly on the road (0-3) NEP -2.5 vs NY GIANTSI'm a pats fan and I'm not really sold on them just yet. That said, BB doesn't lose 2 in a row very often and they're back home in Gillette. CIN +8.5 vs TENNPurely a system play. I don't like betting against the titans at home. IF this gets to 9 it's a better play IMO. BALT +9.5 at PITTPItt is tough at home but I think Balt can play well enough to keep this close. That said, Flacco laid an egg on me 2 MNFs ago... can the Ravens get Rice going vs PITT? BEARS +13 at PHINot even close to a system play... in fact it's going the other way. That said while PHI is newly resurgent I still think Chicago is the superior team. Factor in them getting +7 and I'm figuring I must be missing some injury info.
culdeus
Footballguy
that's good. I was seeing 9.
Atl -7
NO -8
NYJ +1.5(hopefully)(I already did my part and bet buffalo -1)
Oak -7.5
Cincy +2.5/3(I'll be on Tenn once it gets off 3)
NE -8.5
Phi -7
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Insoxicated
Unsure of what GooRoo is charging new signups right now but I don't know if it's worth it at 10-25 a game. I have no idea why I've not been clipped yet but I actually was cut to 300 a few months ago but they bumped me back up to 500 at the start of football seasonDuring the black tuesday I was cut on props to (I forget) Maybe 25 or something. Could be 10 I'll check later. What win rate at such low stakes can be profitable?I have gotta say thanks to GooRoo and some nice runs of my own on teasers thus far this year, my account is getting to some pretty ridiculous levels (for me). The balance has increased over 1700% in the last 6 months and change.
Going to ride this as long as they are willing to let me....
lumpy19
Footballguy
you are still drunk...even if it was 9 we'd need steam on the giantsthat's good. I was seeing 9.
Atl -7
NO -8
NYJ +1.5(hopefully)(I already did my part and bet buffalo -1)
Oak -7.5
Cincy +2.5/3(I'll be on Tenn once it gets off 3)
NE -8.5
Phi -7
culdeus
Footballguy
you are still drunk...even if it was 9 we'd need steam on the giantsthat's good. I was seeing 9.
Atl -7
NO -8
NYJ +1.5(hopefully)(I already did my part and bet buffalo -1)
Oak -7.5
Cincy +2.5/3(I'll be on Tenn once it gets off 3)
NE -8.5
Phi -7
culdeus
Footballguy
Interesting.... Wonder if they reset me. It was like 2 years ago. Are football limits same as hockey? Can I test with hockey props?Unsure of what GooRoo is charging new signups right now but I don't know if it's worth it at 10-25 a game. I have no idea why I've not been clipped yet but I actually was cut to 300 a few months ago but they bumped me back up to 500 at the start of football seasonDuring the black tuesday I was cut on props to (I forget) Maybe 25 or something. Could be 10 I'll check later. What win rate at such low stakes can be profitable?I have gotta say thanks to GooRoo and some nice runs of my own on teasers thus far this year, my account is getting to some pretty ridiculous levels (for me). The balance has increased over 1700% in the last 6 months and change.
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Insoxicated
I'm having no trouble getting 300 down on hockey, haven't attempted higher yet but I was at 500 6 months ago without issue.Interesting.... Wonder if they reset me. It was like 2 years ago. Are football limits same as hockey? Can I test with hockey props?Unsure of what GooRoo is charging new signups right now but I don't know if it's worth it at 10-25 a game. I have no idea why I've not been clipped yet but I actually was cut to 300 a few months ago but they bumped me back up to 500 at the start of football seasonDuring the black tuesday I was cut on props to (I forget) Maybe 25 or something. Could be 10 I'll check later. What win rate at such low stakes can be profitable?I have gotta say thanks to GooRoo and some nice runs of my own on teasers thus far this year, my account is getting to some pretty ridiculous levels (for me). The balance has increased over 1700% in the last 6 months and change.
lumpy19
Footballguy
They don't reset you, EVER. They limit the sports, so icon prob got cut to 300 on baseball and still has 500 on footballInteresting.... Wonder if they reset me. It was like 2 years ago. Are football limits same as hockey? Can I test with hockey props?Unsure of what GooRoo is charging new signups right now but I don't know if it's worth it at 10-25 a game. I have no idea why I've not been clipped yet but I actually was cut to 300 a few months ago but they bumped me back up to 500 at the start of football seasonDuring the black tuesday I was cut on props to (I forget) Maybe 25 or something. Could be 10 I'll check later. What win rate at such low stakes can be profitable?I have gotta say thanks to GooRoo and some nice runs of my own on teasers thus far this year, my account is getting to some pretty ridiculous levels (for me). The balance has increased over 1700% in the last 6 months and change.
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Insoxicated
In all seriousness... what am I missing on these two lines? (obviously those lines are already reflecting a 6pt tease.)
FALCONS -1 at INDY
WTF. INDY has a sagarin rating of 7.56 (DFL by a lot)... Falcons are 8th at 23.85. I understand home field is worth 3pts or so but C'mon.... What am I missing?
BEARS +13 at PHI
Is Philly for real now or were they just the beneficiaries of a horrid Romo showing? Surely they're not going to be posting 500yds of offense on the Bears? That Dallas game was their first win/cover of the season and it's against a 1-3 Road team (Dallas).
Chicago has 2 road losses vs Detroit and New Orleans (both by double digits). Are they prone to the deep ball? Seems like all 3 losses are to teams who can move the ball well through the air (adding @GBP to the mix).
Thoughts?
FALCONS -1 at INDY
WTF. INDY has a sagarin rating of 7.56 (DFL by a lot)... Falcons are 8th at 23.85. I understand home field is worth 3pts or so but C'mon.... What am I missing?
BEARS +13 at PHI
Is Philly for real now or were they just the beneficiaries of a horrid Romo showing? Surely they're not going to be posting 500yds of offense on the Bears? That Dallas game was their first win/cover of the season and it's against a 1-3 Road team (Dallas).
Chicago has 2 road losses vs Detroit and New Orleans (both by double digits). Are they prone to the deep ball? Seems like all 3 losses are to teams who can move the ball well through the air (adding @GBP to the mix).
Thoughts?
ArbyMelt
Footballguy
You can find out your limit without placing a bet on the sportsbook.com family sites. Just select the prop/bet, and then up top put in some very high number to bet, and it will tell you that you exceeded your limit and what your limit is. In the past it seemed like sportsbook.com sites would limit you on certain sports only. But lately it seems they just cut you on all props/futures. They cut me to $50 just recently.Interesting.... Wonder if they reset me. It was like 2 years ago. Are football limits same as hockey? Can I test with hockey props?Unsure of what GooRoo is charging new signups right now but I don't know if it's worth it at 10-25 a game. I have no idea why I've not been clipped yet but I actually was cut to 300 a few months ago but they bumped me back up to 500 at the start of football seasonDuring the black tuesday I was cut on props to (I forget) Maybe 25 or something. Could be 10 I'll check later. What win rate at such low stakes can be profitable?I have gotta say thanks to GooRoo and some nice runs of my own on teasers thus far this year, my account is getting to some pretty ridiculous levels (for me). The balance has increased over 1700% in the last 6 months and change.
culdeus
Footballguy
I realize there is some irony in this, but I see ATL -7 everywhere.
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Insoxicated
Bolded. Already reflecting a 6pt tease. Chicago is +7 everywhere too. I also realize moving to CHI +13 is the wrong way in basic systems (which point to PHI -1) but my logic is explained above.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
Did you place the bet yet? you can now get chi +14 +14.5
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lumpy19
Footballguy
They were screaming at -7....I hate the bears side but it's your moneynot yet... jesus that's some serious movement!'lumpy19 said:Now the eagles are screaming out to you at -2.5 I'm sure right?
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Insoxicated
Here are my early leans:
(favorites bolded)
FALCONS -1 at INDY
WTF. INDY has a sagarin rating of 7.56 (DFL by a lot)... Falcons are 8th at 23.85. I understand home field is worth 3pts or so but C'mon.... What am I missing?
SAINTS -2 vs TAMPA
Saints got embarassed last week. Tampa is playing some pretty good ball right now but they're heading back to dome sweet dome. Love moving across all the keys here.
JETS +7 at BUFFALO
This is purely a system play but I don't know that I love it. Buffalo is playing well (4-0 at home) and the Jets have been wishy washy and horribly on the road (0-3)
NEP -2.5 vs NY GIANTS
I'm a pats fan and I'm not really sold on them just yet. That said, BB doesn't lose 2 in a row very often and they're back home in Gillette.
CIN +8.5 vs TENN
Purely a system play. I don't like betting against the titans at home. IF this gets to 9 it's a better play IMO.
OAK -2.5 vs DEN
Oakland is solid... Denver is garbage. It's IN Oakland. Moving across Key numbers. Don't like McFadden being Questionable.
GBP pk at SD
SanDiego is garbage, only covering 2x all year (once at home).... Pack are on the road but are undefeated.
BALT +9.5 at PITT
PItt is tough at home but I think Balt can play well enough to keep this close. That said, Flacco laid an egg on me 2 MNFs ago... can the Ravens get Rice going vs PITT?
PHI -2.5 vs CHI
Lumpy has me backing off my original stance that these were just too many points to be giving a good Chicago team.
(favorites bolded)
FALCONS -1 at INDY
WTF. INDY has a sagarin rating of 7.56 (DFL by a lot)... Falcons are 8th at 23.85. I understand home field is worth 3pts or so but C'mon.... What am I missing?
SAINTS -2 vs TAMPA
Saints got embarassed last week. Tampa is playing some pretty good ball right now but they're heading back to dome sweet dome. Love moving across all the keys here.
JETS +7 at BUFFALO
This is purely a system play but I don't know that I love it. Buffalo is playing well (4-0 at home) and the Jets have been wishy washy and horribly on the road (0-3)
NEP -2.5 vs NY GIANTS
I'm a pats fan and I'm not really sold on them just yet. That said, BB doesn't lose 2 in a row very often and they're back home in Gillette.
CIN +8.5 vs TENN
Purely a system play. I don't like betting against the titans at home. IF this gets to 9 it's a better play IMO.
OAK -2.5 vs DEN
Oakland is solid... Denver is garbage. It's IN Oakland. Moving across Key numbers. Don't like McFadden being Questionable.
GBP pk at SD
SanDiego is garbage, only covering 2x all year (once at home).... Pack are on the road but are undefeated.
BALT +9.5 at PITT
PItt is tough at home but I think Balt can play well enough to keep this close. That said, Flacco laid an egg on me 2 MNFs ago... can the Ravens get Rice going vs PITT?
PHI -2.5 vs CHI
Lumpy has me backing off my original stance that these were just too many points to be giving a good Chicago team.
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Insoxicated
I hear ya... I've been wondering when PHI was going to come out of their shell all year. I"m just wondering if they are for real yet.... Sagarin has CHI rated higher than PHI. My concern is teams beating CHI are teams that can move the ball quickly in the air and have solid running games. I think you've got me talked into the other side...Screw it...
PHI -2.5 / NOLA -2 / ATL -1 / GBP pk
By 3's (2.5u t/w 4.5u)
By 4 (2.5u t/w 7.5u)
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hooter311
Footballguy
From experience, Sagarin numbers are an excellent way to lose money.I've crunched those puppies upside down and sideways trying to find an edge in NFL, MLB, NCAAF, NCAAB, and NBA and I never have found it.
Same thing with Dunkel.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Don't bet it yet!!! we'll see some bounce back on the philly line....I bet this closes -7, possibly even 6.5, no way it goes the other way to 9/10 so it's worth waiting
lumpy19
Footballguy
I don't use any math system to cap NFL, I've never even looked at sagarin etcTeam off a huge win, looks unstoppable, bet against them the next week. Team looks atrocious....can't find the end zone, bet on them the next week. :makeitrain: (excluding the pats undefeated season)
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Insoxicated
Sorry if there's any confusion... I hardly use sagarin as a bible. I guess the best way to describe how I determine plays: • My thoughts/gut (30%)• Crossing Key Numbers (30%)• LEans from other bettors I trust (20%)• Sagarin (10%)• Previous Record / Trends / etc.... ie Strong at home/away, momentum, strength vs types of teams, etc. (10%)It's hardly a long term proven system but it's served me alright.
hooter311
Footballguy
Just lookin' out man.Sorry if there's any confusion... I hardly use sagarin as a bible. I guess the best way to describe how I determine plays: • My thoughts/gut (30%)• Crossing Key Numbers (30%)• LEans from other bettors I trust (20%)• Sagarin (10%)• Previous Record / Trends / etc.... ie Strong at home/away, momentum, strength vs types of teams, etc. (10%)It's hardly a long term proven system but it's served me alright.
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Insoxicated
The Ref
Footballguy
Or I could have waited two days and got them at +9.5. Whatever.
The Ref
Footballguy
Turns out the play was the over. This game will finish with over 80
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I won't bore you with my teasers this week but I have a few with the Raiders as a pivot. I do like the Chargers +205 this week though, Green Bay isn't gonna run the table and the Chargers are due to play a great game.
Going LSU....
Going LSU....
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Another defensive struggle in the MAC tonight.
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Are you guys playing 3-team teasers with the lumpy system, or 2? I forget. Think I am going to do it this weekend.Totally agree about the Chargers.
lumpy19
Footballguy
it's not the lumpy system, just basic strategy teasers crossing 3 and 73 teamers at +180, 2 teamers if you can get +100
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lumpy19
Footballguy
Has anyone seriously taken on the fantasy sites out there, the weekly wagering ones for real money? something like draftstreet or fanduel? I know some in this thread are serious fantasy football players, just wondering if you have any experience with these sites. I have a few ideas but I'm not sure if there's money to be made because of the "rake" that some of these sites are charging.
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Insoxicated
I deposited on Fanduel and played a bit. Turned a profit but you're right on the rake factor. I would simply create a 3 team league with the same team (optimized for the week) and then recreate the same league 3-4 times and let it fill up with challengers. Ended up cashing out... not a huge fan.
lumpy19
Footballguy
I'm curious if I take my player projections and convert them to dollar values if I can win long term. These sites are legal, easily funded by paypal and I imagine full of people just looking for a little action. Reminds me of poker in 2003.
Just a few notes on why I think LSU +5 is the play:
[*]Neither teaam has really been tested by a great defense. Bama's toughest defensive matchup has been Penn State and LSU's has been @ Mississippi State (prime time).
[*]Both offenses are extremely efficient and actually put up a lot of points. Jarrett Lee leads the SEC in QB rating and McCarron is 2nd.
[*]Both running games are strong & both run defenses are strong. Richardson is obviously the best RB in the country; but don't underestimate LSU's depth.
[*]To me, this game comes down to turnovers and special teams, which is where LSU has the clear edge...they are +15 in turnover margin (Bama +6). Brad Wing (LSU punter) has put 50% of his punts inside the 20.
Can't fault anyone for betting Bama, but this is why I think LSU +5 is the play.
Full disclosure, I think LSU is goign to win the game; so I also went ML on them...but if you had to get one bet in on this game it's LSU +5
[*]Statistically, Bama/LSU are very close; with a slight edge to Bama. That's probably mitigated by the fact that LSU has played 2 high power offenses in Oregon and WVU. Bama has played one (Arkansas)
[*]Neither teaam has really been tested by a great defense. Bama's toughest defensive matchup has been Penn State and LSU's has been @ Mississippi State (prime time).
[*]Both offenses are extremely efficient and actually put up a lot of points. Jarrett Lee leads the SEC in QB rating and McCarron is 2nd.
[*]Both running games are strong & both run defenses are strong. Richardson is obviously the best RB in the country; but don't underestimate LSU's depth.
[*]To me, this game comes down to turnovers and special teams, which is where LSU has the clear edge...they are +15 in turnover margin (Bama +6). Brad Wing (LSU punter) has put 50% of his punts inside the 20.
Can't fault anyone for betting Bama, but this is why I think LSU +5 is the play.
Full disclosure, I think LSU is goign to win the game; so I also went ML on them...but if you had to get one bet in on this game it's LSU +5
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
PM guru007 - I think that's his username.
hooter311
Footballguy
Thanks, forgot about him.Good dude, ran into him several times back in the day multitabling on stars.
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Insoxicated
This game has the feel of a 17-13-ish battle to me. Two amazing defenses. Two very good but unspectacular offenses that will be trying very hard not to make a critical mistake. If it wasn't for Alabama's tendency to give up points on the opening drive I'd love the 1H under as I can see these teams feeling each other out for the first couple drives.
