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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Billy Bats
Footballguy
I guess that's a yes.Up to 13.5 at most casinos.Does that say blowout?? I certainly dont feel comfortable laying that much with Atlanta. I think ill just make a small play on the overs.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
What do you need? I'm so bored I could cry.
The Ref
Footballguy
Dillard over 36 for a unit. Someone else in here has it as well. No big deal.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Ride me til I drop. This doesn't happen often.
The Ref
Footballguy
Will do - on dal TT o.Keep it up kid.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah I'll parlay the free money I won tonight. Why the #### not?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I would like to key most of my teasers off of one of these teams.
They are all favored by 6.5, so we'd be laying 0.5.
Saints (AT MINN)
Titans (AT INDY)
Giants (home vs. Wash)
Which of those favorites is LEAST likely to lose outright?
I keep going back to the Saints. Yes, it's on the road, but it's indoors which they prefer. Also, Brees will TORCH those Vikings safeties. The only thing that worries me is that Peterson is back, but Ponder is still not 100%.
What say you?
They are all favored by 6.5, so we'd be laying 0.5.
Saints (AT MINN)
Titans (AT INDY)
Giants (home vs. Wash)
Which of those favorites is LEAST likely to lose outright?
I keep going back to the Saints. Yes, it's on the road, but it's indoors which they prefer. Also, Brees will TORCH those Vikings safeties. The only thing that worries me is that Peterson is back, but Ponder is still not 100%.
What say you?
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I say the home team. 
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
If only it were that simple. The Skins have been moving the ball well.Hopefully the Giants had their one home stinker already: the loss to the Seahawks.I say the home team.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
And do the Colts have ANY interest in winning? Seriously? They are thisclose to Luck, and they know it.
D-BO
Footballguy
Saints
Vikings won't be able to hang.
The Colts could pull it off at home for sure. Titans are banged up. Plus only be right for my Lions to be 0-16 alone..lol
Grossman had great games against the Giants last year if I recall correctly. Also NY could be in for the "let down" after the big win against Dallas.
Vikings won't be able to hang.
The Colts could pull it off at home for sure. Titans are banged up. Plus only be right for my Lions to be 0-16 alone..lol
Grossman had great games against the Giants last year if I recall correctly. Also NY could be in for the "let down" after the big win against Dallas.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Trent Williams, Fred Davis, Cooley and Landry all out. They might keep it close, but they aren't winning.If only it were that simple. The Skins have been moving the ball well.Hopefully the Giants had their one home stinker already: the loss to the Seahawks.I say the home team.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Texans and Cards are at home, I think I like those two better than the Titans.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Definitely looking hard at Houston, but DAMN it's hard to trust the Cardinals with actual legal tender.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I play three a week, I think my three teams will be the Giants/Texans/SaintsCards are playing pretty well right now though, I might play them mid-day with all the options.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Ha! THe only reason Tebow hasn't look good for more than a quarter is because he hasn't had to.He can give as many quarters as needed..
cosjobs
Footballguy
So I have never been a teaser guy, but the talk I am hearing is intriguing.
You choose favorite that have a money line of -240 or more and laying 6 or more points?
Is that the only qualifier and is that correct?
I realize this has been covered ad infinitum in here, but its all in little bits, spread like shotgun pellets throughout 500 pages.
You choose favorite that have a money line of -240 or more and laying 6 or more points?
Is that the only qualifier and is that correct?
I realize this has been covered ad infinitum in here, but its all in little bits, spread like shotgun pellets throughout 500 pages.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Most of the guys here look to cross the two key numbers (3 & 7). If you like a dog which is getting 1.5, you use the six points and you are now getting 7.5, and in the process you have "crossed" the two key numbers upon which NFL games land most frequently -- 3 and 7. (Side note: some also have a general rule of thumb when teasing dogs UP... don't bet them if you don't think they have a legitimate shot to win the game outright.)Then you have the 7.5, 8 or 8.5 point favorite which you tease down to -1.5, -2 and -2.5 respectively. Thus, you have again "crossed" 3 and 7, only in the opposite direction.
While Wong teasers are the best bang for your buck, I'll tease any side (NFL, not college, and never totals).
For example, if I have a conviction that a team laying 2.5 will cover, I'll bet them straight minus the 2.5, and I might throw them in a teaser or two at +3.5. That is what's known as "crossing zero," and doing so will earn you ridicule and scorn in a forum such as this one. But I look at it as maximizing money-making opportunities on a game I really like. I wouldn't suggest making a habit out of this practice, but every now and then I'll see a spot for it. Similarly, I don't mind taking a 12 point favorite and knocking them down to -6.
cstu
Footballguy
3 team 10 point teaser:
Patriots +3 @ Broncos (It'll take more than Jesus for Tebow to beat the Pats by a TD)
Bengals +3.5 @ Rams (Bradford probably out and the Bengals still in the playoff hunt)
Browns +17 @ Cardinals (Cleveland has played far tougher teams and kept it close, Cardinals haven't won a game by more than 5 points)
Patriots +3 @ Broncos (It'll take more than Jesus for Tebow to beat the Pats by a TD)
Bengals +3.5 @ Rams (Bradford probably out and the Bengals still in the playoff hunt)
Browns +17 @ Cardinals (Cleveland has played far tougher teams and kept it close, Cardinals haven't won a game by more than 5 points)
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zander_s
Footballguy
Pending12/18/11 1:00pm NFL Football 309 New Orleans Saints -½ +105* vs Minnesota Vikings
Pending12/18/11 1:00pm NFL Football 316 Houston Texans -½ +115* vs Carolina Panthers
Pending12/18/11 1:00pm NFL Football 317 Tennessee Titans -1½ +115* vs Indianapolis Colts
Pending12/18/11 1:00pm NFL Football 319 Cincinnati Bengals -½ +105* vs St. Louis Rams
I like GB teased to -8.5 too.
Pending12/18/11 1:00pm NFL Football 316 Houston Texans -½ +115* vs Carolina Panthers
Pending12/18/11 1:00pm NFL Football 317 Tennessee Titans -1½ +115* vs Indianapolis Colts
Pending12/18/11 1:00pm NFL Football 319 Cincinnati Bengals -½ +105* vs St. Louis Rams
I like GB teased to -8.5 too.
culdeus
Footballguy
Teaser philosophy:
Teasing 3 at +180 or more is always the best bet. Teasing 3 all the way to +160 is supposedly still EV under tight guidelines.
Home teams laying 7.5 to 8.5 or getting 1.5 to 2.5 tease 6 blind and don't even bother to see who the teams are. -Decidedly +EV
Road teams under the same guidelines is also +EV but has proven long term to not pay out quite as well
If you want to key something key something from the above two lists. This is basic information that everyone knows.
Other good teaser strategies I like when there aren't many teams in above list
Home team +3 -120 or higher total less than 48
Home team -7 -120 or higher total less than 45
Marginal teasers that apply
Road teams that apply from above list
All teams laying or getting points crossing either the 7 or 3 with a total of 42.5 or less.
Teasing 6 teams by 3s and 4s is my basic strategy. I will usually pick the "best" 6 that apply. If more than 6 apply by basic strategy then I will do more.
Questions, comments, concerns?
Teasing 3 at +180 or more is always the best bet. Teasing 3 all the way to +160 is supposedly still EV under tight guidelines.
Home teams laying 7.5 to 8.5 or getting 1.5 to 2.5 tease 6 blind and don't even bother to see who the teams are. -Decidedly +EV
Road teams under the same guidelines is also +EV but has proven long term to not pay out quite as well
If you want to key something key something from the above two lists. This is basic information that everyone knows.
Other good teaser strategies I like when there aren't many teams in above list
Home team +3 -120 or higher total less than 48
Home team -7 -120 or higher total less than 45
Marginal teasers that apply
Road teams that apply from above list
All teams laying or getting points crossing either the 7 or 3 with a total of 42.5 or less.
Teasing 6 teams by 3s and 4s is my basic strategy. I will usually pick the "best" 6 that apply. If more than 6 apply by basic strategy then I will do more.
Questions, comments, concerns?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Remember that those points are usually worth most in lower scoring games (I don't tease totals but I look at them for this reason).
lumpy19
Footballguy
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xulf
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
I'm gonna tail this guy because he hates vowels.
hooter311
Footballguy
You've seen/heard about the gigantic billboards in town plastered with "SUCK FOR LUCK". The fanbase is rallying around this zero win season, absolutely bizarre.
Vwls r 4 #####s
lumpy19
Footballguy
it costs money but kostats.com is the best i've found for sports data
The Ref
Footballguy
Why do you hate Italians?
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Fwiw, I saw a report earlier this week on PFT that if Caldwell doesn't win at least 1 game he's a goner.'Raider Nation said:
The Ref
Footballguy
Denver is the one team that New England can't beat historicaly. Even the Grogan/Eason Patriots and Bledsoe Patriots seem to have never been able to beat the Broncos when it matters.Denver is the only team that Brady doesn't have a winning record against at 1-5
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
thinking about ml'n this one right here...
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
any of you guys interested in making some money for good ol' JTG in these bowls?
Let's hear it doods.
Let's hear it doods.
culdeus
Footballguy
dogs before 12/31, chalk after 12/31, profit
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
I like your style~!@~@
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Trends for tomorrow's games:Utah State to even money nowGame total rising Temple down to 7game total risingULL/SDSU locked in, I don't think anyone can get a read on it to be honest. What I'm on: USU/Ohio over, Temple/Wyoming under
lumpy19
Footballguy
I'm on the opposite side of both those.....hope you go 0-2
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
won't be coaching the Colts next year regardless of what happens in the final three games.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Rough, man.I'm on the opposite side of both those.....hope you go 0-2
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
I agree with you that
will be gone after this year. I don't, however, think he and the coaching staff have packed it in yet.
