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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
D-BO
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
The Ref
Footballguy
The flames are inconsistant from a SOG standpoint as well. We got them with an under bet tonight only thing we can hope is the 3 power plays and the 3-0 lead will get them to go into a shell.Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
modogg
Footballguy
it has been awhile since i followed SOG props strong, but who do you think are the most consistent? i threw the Flyers out the window tonight, thinking they would be hitting the over more often than not. i know the Sharks and Det are always up there with going over, and STL is good for the under numbers. I am thinking LA over may be more useful now as well. I have to look into the stats more, it was fun when i did, but is a bit of workone thing that has killed me is the amount of blocked shots by defensemen in the 2 or 3 games i played. it seemed like a heck of a lot, certainly would seem to be a factor in the SOG propsThe flames are inconsistant from a SOG standpoint as well. We got them with an under bet tonight only thing we can hope is the 3 power plays and the 3-0 lead will get them to go into a shell.Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
Miller in net. Sounds like no Couture again.
Kipper starting to win me back. 
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Rud, Buf/SJ u5.5?
The Ref
Footballguy
Over teams for us tend to be phi, bos, det, pit, and NYR. Avs and car sometimes as well. We have made more from the under side this year and most of that depends on @ home and matchup. Blocked shots is huge!it has been awhile since i followed SOG props strong, but who do you think are the most consistent? i threw the Flyers out the window tonight, thinking they would be hitting the over more often than not. i know the Sharks and Det are always up there with going over, and STL is good for the under numbers. I am thinking LA over may be more useful now as well. I have to look into the stats more, it was fun when i did, but is a bit of workone thing that has killed me is the amount of blocked shots by defensemen in the 2 or 3 games i played. it seemed like a heck of a lot, certainly would seem to be a factor in the SOG propsThe flames are inconsistant from a SOG standpoint as well. We got them with an under bet tonight only thing we can hope is the 3 power plays and the 3-0 lead will get them to go into a shell.Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
The Ref
Footballguy
And just like that, a 4 shot period after letting in two goals.The flames are inconsistant from a SOG standpoint as well. We got them with an under bet tonight only thing we can hope is the 3 power plays and the 3-0 lead will get them to go into a shell.Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
The Ref
Footballguy
And THEN 7 shots in 6 minutes. Can't make this up.And just like that, a 4 shot period after letting in two goals.The flames are inconsistant from a SOG standpoint as well. We got them with an under bet tonight only thing we can hope is the 3 power plays and the 3-0 lead will get them to go into a shell.Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
modogg
Footballguy
Yeah, when you watch the games and see how the shots go, it does make you wonder how predictable they really are.And THEN 7 shots in 6 minutes. Can't make this up.And just like that, a 4 shot period after letting in two goals.The flames are inconsistant from a SOG standpoint as well. We got them with an under bet tonight only thing we can hope is the 3 power plays and the 3-0 lead will get them to go into a shell.Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
The Ref
Footballguy
Normally I'd say I find these props very predictable, but I'm having a bad night so Ill just agree because I'm pissed.Yeah, when you watch the games and see how the shots go, it does make you wonder how predictable they really are.And THEN 7 shots in 6 minutes. Can't make this up.And just like that, a 4 shot period after letting in two goals.The flames are inconsistant from a SOG standpoint as well. We got them with an under bet tonight only thing we can hope is the 3 power plays and the 3-0 lead will get them to go into a shell.Seriously, what the heck is going on there. I think Cgy can be placed in the do not touch list for a bit
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stupid Yotes.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Didn't play it as you might have guessed, since it's going to win easily.
sorry. wasn't around at the time. I did like it, but only had it in a small parlay that will lose like just about everything else I play lately.
modogg
Footballguy
why not, in
modogg
Footballguy
i think these turned out alright for today. I am on Crane tomorrow -110 over Howel III, do you golf guys like anything else? i think i took Mark Wilson -140 over Camilo Villegas too
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I meant to put in a Sabres/Jackets/Flames ML parlay.
modogg
Footballguy
I meant to put in a Sabres/Jackets/Flames ML parlay.
you son of a b#####, those are the plays you have to post good buddy. that one would have helped all of us.ans PS: Hawaii sucks. those kids self-destruct like big idiots..
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Was j/k bro... I could not hit a parlay like that if my life depended on it.I meant to put in a Sabres/Jackets/Flames ML parlay.
modogg
Footballguy
Was j/k bro... I could not hit a parlay like that if my life depended on it.I meant to put in a Sabres/Jackets/Flames ML parlay.
We can dream, can't we?
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
You guys suck ##### at reading.The whole point I was making, and that I clearly spelled out, were that the lows were comparably low relative to the highs. A bad year for Duke or Kentucky is going out in the 2nd or 3rd round of the NCAA's. A bad year for Connecticut is a first round NIT exit and someone getting kicked out of the program. All three teams are national title contenders fairly frequently, but UCONN always falls further than those other two. I'm not saying I would trade an up-and-down team for a down-and-down team, it's just odd.Sorry you guys follow schools that always stink.GTFOOH with this "grim years" nonsense. Try being a Nebraska fan (even though they're my second favorite team). They just scored 34 points in a college basketball game last weekend.They've never won a ncaa tournament game.They haven't been to the big dance since 1998.The program's one shining moment was winning the NIT back in the 90's.The last time they won a conference title was like 62 years ago.A Uconn fan talking about "grim years."Cry me a ####### river UCONN fan
mquinnjr
Footballguy
OK, so some quantified metrics on the baseball run line as we begin to prep for baseball season. 
My link
So the stats show, basically, a 18% increase in risk for taking a favorite against the run line at home (11% on the road) based on % of games decided by 1 run. Based upon that stat, I'm not sure I'll do it often, but if it feels right I think I'll mix in here and there some RL picks.
Just thinking about it, specifically versus hockey, it seems more attainable based upon total runs that get scored in games in baseball versus hockey. Your average O/U for NHL set by the books would be 5.5, whereas baseball is about 7.5. So the ability to win on the RL is supported by higher scoring, making it a much more attainable bet.
My link
So the stats show, basically, a 18% increase in risk for taking a favorite against the run line at home (11% on the road) based on % of games decided by 1 run. Based upon that stat, I'm not sure I'll do it often, but if it feels right I think I'll mix in here and there some RL picks.
Just thinking about it, specifically versus hockey, it seems more attainable based upon total runs that get scored in games in baseball versus hockey. Your average O/U for NHL set by the books would be 5.5, whereas baseball is about 7.5. So the ability to win on the RL is supported by higher scoring, making it a much more attainable bet.
The average baseball RL is much closer to 9 in actuality, which helps your point. That said, and I can't speak for hockey, but I will almost never bet RLs, excepting the rare large underdog. Two cents.OK, so some quantified metrics on the baseball run line as we begin to prep for baseball season.
My link
So the stats show, basically, a 18% increase in risk for taking a favorite against the run line at home (11% on the road) based on % of games decided by 1 run. Based upon that stat, I'm not sure I'll do it often, but if it feels right I think I'll mix in here and there some RL picks.
Just thinking about it, specifically versus hockey, it seems more attainable based upon total runs that get scored in games in baseball versus hockey. Your average O/U for NHL set by the books would be 5.5, whereas baseball is about 7.5. So the ability to win on the RL is supported by higher scoring, making it a much more attainable bet.
hooter311
Footballguy
Not really, but I like the Crane play Mo. I'm on it too.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Seems like a logical thought but also remember the scoring distribution in baseball is different, hockey can only score 1 at a time, baseball can score 4, this may kill some of that logic.You also have empty netters in hockey and no equivalent in baseballOK, so some quantified metrics on the baseball run line as we begin to prep for baseball season.
My link
So the stats show, basically, a 18% increase in risk for taking a favorite against the run line at home (11% on the road) based on % of games decided by 1 run. Based upon that stat, I'm not sure I'll do it often, but if it feels right I think I'll mix in here and there some RL picks.
Just thinking about it, specifically versus hockey, it seems more attainable based upon total runs that get scored in games in baseball versus hockey. Your average O/U for NHL set by the books would be 5.5, whereas baseball is about 7.5. So the ability to win on the RL is supported by higher scoring, making it a much more attainable bet.
And the home team -1.5 and they don't bat in the bot 9th because they're winning
I'd recommend avoiding PL/RL at all costs, they're usually the worst bet on the board
Tat
Has-been punter
I am on Crane as well, also added Rose over Oosthuizen
The Ref
Footballguy
We might be in troble because one of the largest leans my golf guy has this weekend was Crane over Holmes, he also likes a bounce back from Crane today.
hooter311
Footballguy
I'm thinking Crane or Bradley take this tournament.
The Ref
Footballguy
Oddly enough his single largest bet was Bradley U 23.5 finish, so it seems like alot of us are on the same side of the boat.
hooter311
Footballguy
Let's make some money.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Bought for 1U @ -115 when opened, seems too easy. Bound to get screwed on this somehow. Baseball is back, Lumpy! I love it.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
You guys suck ##### at reading.The whole point I was making, and that I clearly spelled out, were that the lows were comparably low relative to the highs. A bad year for Duke or Kentucky is going out in the 2nd or 3rd round of the NCAA's. A bad year for Connecticut is a first round NIT exit and someone getting kicked out of the program. All three teams are national title contenders fairly frequently, but UCONN always falls further than those other two. I'm not saying I would trade an up-and-down team for a down-and-down team, it's just odd.Sorry you guys follow schools that always stink.GTFOOH with this "grim years" nonsense. Try being a Nebraska fan (even though they're my second favorite team). They just scored 34 points in a college basketball game last weekend.They've never won a ncaa tournament game.They haven't been to the big dance since 1998.The program's one shining moment was winning the NIT back in the 90's.The last time they won a conference title was like 62 years ago.A Uconn fan talking about "grim years."
We can read just fine. I thought I'd seen just about everything on the internets but this is a first: a college basketball fan of the DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPION crying about "up and down years" and "grim years" and being "an up-and-down team" over the last decade+, which included other national titles. What your describing isn't UConn. It's a team like GTech. 2 Final 4's over a decade a part. NCAA tournament appearances several times over the last couple decades mixed in with some awful, legitimate grim years where they were at the bottom of the acc. UConn has been an elite, top 6 program over the last 2 decades.You probably should of waited to post this a year from now when UConn will be academically ineligible for the ncaa tourney, then we could of just made fun of UConn for not recruiting student athletes.P.S. A bad year for Kentucky is getting hammered by the ncaa and being ineligible for the tourney. A bad year for Duke is Coack K faking a back injury because his team is so bad.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Indiana St. +12
Chicago Bulls -9.5: Irving is sick and may not play tonight
Chicago handed Cleveland their worst defeat ever in their last visit to CLE, and that was without Rose. You have to figure Chicago can cover 9.5. Probably too good to be true, but if K. Irving does not go, I am not sure that Sessions can keep the Cavs in this.
Leans:
Utah +5: MIA has LAL on deck on Sunday and played last night in Portland. Utah is rested. No suprise is MIA is not completely focused tonight
GLTA
AB
Chicago Bulls -9.5: Irving is sick and may not play tonight
Chicago handed Cleveland their worst defeat ever in their last visit to CLE, and that was without Rose. You have to figure Chicago can cover 9.5. Probably too good to be true, but if K. Irving does not go, I am not sure that Sessions can keep the Cavs in this.Leans:
Utah +5: MIA has LAL on deck on Sunday and played last night in Portland. Utah is rested. No suprise is MIA is not completely focused tonight
GLTA
AB
Cawbird
Footballguy
NHL: Ottawa -135 over the Blackhawks looks mighty tasty.
They have similar records and this game is in Ottawa
Toews is still out for the Hawks
The Hawks barely beat a struggling Toronto team at home and had to come back from 3-1
Ottawa's power play is hot right now and the Hawks' penalty killing has been a mess all season
Ottawa's rookie goalie seems solid right now
The Hawks could be looking ahead to a couple of critical divisional games with Detroit and St. Louis
What am I missing? I thought the line would be around -160.
They have similar records and this game is in Ottawa
Toews is still out for the Hawks
The Hawks barely beat a struggling Toronto team at home and had to come back from 3-1
Ottawa's power play is hot right now and the Hawks' penalty killing has been a mess all season
Ottawa's rookie goalie seems solid right now
The Hawks could be looking ahead to a couple of critical divisional games with Detroit and St. Louis
What am I missing? I thought the line would be around -160.
gussy
Footballguy
Stuckey is taking the Hawks. That's probably what you are missing.
double bogey for Crane on his 3rd hole of the day. :(
hooter311
Footballguy
Fluke. Nothing wrong with his swing, just one poor chip out of the rough.
back on track now.edit: shot tracker online showed him with a birdie on 15 but then changed to a par. thought he chipped in from the bunker.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
What's good on the frozen water tonight, boys?
modogg
Footballguy
a fun UFC event on FX tonight. various wagers being placed, and the MMA wagering thread has more, but a good start:
Shawn Jordan -200 - i'm tailing hooter here, but it certainly sounds like the right call. a trained, experienced fighter vs. a strongman competitor
Ian McCall +250 - have to put the money on a guy who's nickname is Uncle Creepy
Shawn Jordan -200 - i'm tailing hooter here, but it certainly sounds like the right call. a trained, experienced fighter vs. a strongman competitor
Ian McCall +250 - have to put the money on a guy who's nickname is Uncle Creepy
The Ref
Footballguy
I got a two and a half star play for you. Ducks over 29.5 Shots. I'd say three but our confidance is down, we had our first >1Unit loss in two weeks last night.What's good on the frozen water tonight, boys?
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D-BO
Footballguy
Hawks/Sens overStars ML--Looking at the over in the Rangers/Lightning....Kurt has at 5.5 +130, my local has it 5 -145.--Maybe Ducks with Irving in net for the Flamers.--Something is telling me the Devils will break their losing streak. I think Hedberg may be a better option at this point for them anyway.--I would like to wager something on the Wings game...ML is too high, won't bet against them. Is the over or under the play?? TT??What's good on the frozen water tonight, boys?
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