Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
The 2007 Finals say
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
derek245583
Footballguy
HFS, The gymnastics talk didnt faze me....I was completely flabbergasted by this.www.rowingguys.comdo the research on my rowing sites I frequent.
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
So?The 2007 Finals say
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
So great.HFS, The gymnastics talk didnt faze me....I was completely flabbergasted by this.www.rowingguys.comdo the research on my rowing sites I frequent.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
'BRONG said:So?'Raider Nation said:The 2007 Finals say'hooter311 said:'BRONG said:
Explain what your point was with "IT'S THE NBA. This thing's going back to OKC. HTH."
mquinnjr
Footballguy
'BRONG said:So great.'derek245583 said:HFS, The gymnastics talk didnt faze me....I was completely flabbergasted by this.www.rowingguys.com'mquinnjr said:do the research on my rowing sites I frequent.
I did it for 6 years 
, I'm into it. Can't wait to put some units into it.
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
lol @ the confused shtick.Explain your point.'BRONG said:So?'Raider Nation said:The 2007 Finals say'hooter311 said:'BRONG said:
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Awesome thanks for the heads up, hopefully they get copied over to a US facing site like 5Dimes or Heritage where I have accounts.I did it for 6 yearsPinny currently has lines up for 14 different rowing events in London.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
That's insane. Would you have been on board to keep playing it up to seven times in a row? I'd like to think I'd keep going for it, but I'm sure I'd p#*#* out at some point after 3 or so in a row.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Placed a tennis bet this morning at 5dimes....while it was confirming I hit CANCEL....little yellow bar showed up on my screen that said wager has been cancelled.....checked my wagers and even though the screen said the bet was cancelled it still showed up in my pending wagers.
Wager Won so SUCK ON THAT 5DIMES!!
Wager Won so SUCK ON THAT 5DIMES!!
nittanylion
Footballguy
I have a .5u each on the following Run Lines: Phillies +100, White Sox +100, and Angels +110. When I bought these this morning, the ML on each of these games was over -200!!! I've been doing this now, mostly for .25u to .5u, since bmj stopped posting picks for me to tail, betting Run Lines of any Teams who's ML's are -150 or more, the higher the ML, the more I play the RL for, and so far I'm winning more than I'm losing, and almost every one of these plays are +EV.
My thought is this, the more heavily a Team is favored to outright win (ML), the more likely they are to win by more than 1 run (RL).
Can this strategy be maintained over the Season to finish with a profit? Because if it can, I'd like to start pounding it.
I'll be the 1st to say I'm not that smart, though, and if I've thought of this, so have countless people smarter than I, as well as Vegas, and they've accounted for it enough to come out ahead in the long run...
...or, would they think that so few people actually make these plays, that wagers like this fall into the acceptable loss category for the books?
I'm sure you guys have plenty of answers, I'm all ears.
My thought is this, the more heavily a Team is favored to outright win (ML), the more likely they are to win by more than 1 run (RL).
Can this strategy be maintained over the Season to finish with a profit? Because if it can, I'd like to start pounding it.
I'll be the 1st to say I'm not that smart, though, and if I've thought of this, so have countless people smarter than I, as well as Vegas, and they've accounted for it enough to come out ahead in the long run...
...or, would they think that so few people actually make these plays, that wagers like this fall into the acceptable loss category for the books?
I'm sure you guys have plenty of answers, I'm all ears.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Answer my question then I'll answer yours.lol @ the confused shtick.Explain your point.'BRONG said:So?'Raider Nation said:The 2007 Finals say'hooter311 said:'BRONG said:
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I remember some posters @ covers.com trying this, it always blew up on them soone ror later.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Also, I'm not sure that you know what +EV is. None of those plays are +EV. Run lines in general are bad bets, they charge you more than they should for that 1.5 runs. EV = expected value. A simple example: If a fair coin lands heads, you win $40. If it lands tails, you win $10. If you play once, your expected value, which is your average outcome, is $25. If you play twice, your EV is $50, etc. This game is +EV because the expected value, or average outcome, is positive.If the game was heads wins $50 and tails loses $60, you shouldn't play because it has a negative expectation, or negative EV since the average outcome is -$5. Every casino game has a -EV.A +200 bet can easily be -EV, just like a -200 bet could easily be +EV.
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
CIN/CLE O 5.5 First 5 - 110
Wind is blowing out and both starters with ERA's over 5. Hit the over hard last night and covered easily. The juice on the total for the game is -125 so I am playing it this way instead.
Full Disclosure: I also have to go to the game for a work function and need something to root for so I have that going for me too!
GLTA
AB
Wind is blowing out and both starters with ERA's over 5. Hit the over hard last night and covered easily. The juice on the total for the game is -125 so I am playing it this way instead.
Full Disclosure: I also have to go to the game for a work function and need something to root for so I have that going for me too!
GLTA
AB
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Is pin the tail on the fat chick +EV if you don't have to feed her?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
modogg
Footballguy
i ####### hate the NBA. I feel safer betting on Pacquiao-Bradley than i do with the way these games go.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Last post deleted, Ferris. If you read it, I misunderstood what you were saying. Apologies.
modogg
Footballguy
RN, always causing trouble
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
RN, always causing trouble
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Series bets are the WORST when you are on the wrong side. I took OKC before Game 1 for the series -170'ish. I mean only 2 units (which does hurt since I felt this team was not being stopped and the juice was heavy), but it is a slow, painful death instead of a quick "shot to the head" if you take the wrong side of one individual game when in a series format. Ugh, this has been painful.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Yeah... I laid off half my action. #### the NBA
ChainsawU
Footballguy
PatsFanCT
Footballguy
Yup. That would be me. Of curse I'm wrong on just about everything I bet, so that shoulda' been a sign.If you're going to bump stuff from this thread, how about bringing back stuff like Marshall's sweeping declaration of OKC's superiority or guys trying to figure out if they were going to play OKC to sweep or play it safe and also hit OKC in 5?
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I was wrong, not the first time and won't be the last. I keep betting them 1q, 1h, and for the game every single game as well.If you're going to bump stuff from this thread, how about bringing back stuff like Marshall's sweeping declaration of OKC's superiority or guys trying to figure out if they were going to play OKC to sweep or play it safe and also hit OKC in 5?
I'm very stubborn, but I don't think this series is over yet. Only game OKC won was game 1 when Harden played 22 mins - just saying.
John Bender
Footballguy
Heat 
John Bender
Footballguy
Girlfriend hasn't had her period in 3 months.
She's taking a pregnancy test right now
If I disappear, you all know why
She's taking a pregnancy test right now
If I disappear, you all know why
The Ref
Footballguy
Yes -160No +140Girlfriend hasn't had her period in 3 months.She's taking a pregnancy test right now
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
The explanation for no period for three months is almost overwhelmingly the same thing. I'd hammer YES here.Yes -160No +140Girlfriend hasn't had her period in 3 months.She's taking a pregnancy test right now
derek245583
Footballguy
I have been doing it in the butt to avoid these instances....
Sometimes I wake up sore, but it makes ####ting quick and easy
Sometimes I wake up sore, but it makes ####ting quick and easy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
John Bender
Footballguy
Heat:finger:
All my money's been tied up in the Heat for a month now. Playoffs are too long.
John Bender
Footballguy
Not pregnant.
holler
holler
hooter311
Footballguy
From a friend:http://movielandmagic.com/MLBRUNLINESTATS.html
The Ref
Footballguy
'Good said:The explanation for no period for three months is almost overwhelmingly the same thing. I'd hammer YES here.'The Ref said:Yes -160No +140'John Bender said:Girlfriend hasn't had her period in 3 months.She's taking a pregnancy test right now
The book is never wrong.'John Bender said:
optionmaven
Footballguy
Nice call here. Hit the o/u's the last 2 nights but also got shut out on the sox, losing 2+ units. tripled down tonight on rl and ml, no way were they going to get swept by this pathetic team.'ChainsawU said:
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
This HAS to go back to OKC tonight.. doesn't it?
