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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

'Good said:
Does anybody have any experience using Poisson distributions for handicapping props? What statistics can I apply it to across the major sports?
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They're pretty useful, but it's much easier to just pay GooRoo and win 100+ units each year on props.
 
Also -

Been a very good tennis season. Looking to lose all my winnings on the US Open

Roger Federer to win US Open +300

Something is still up with Djoker IMO. I'll take the +300 with no Rafa in the field

 
Got this from sportsbook.ag

At Sportsbook, we always reward our loyal members with the best bonuses which is why you can get a 25% Reload Bonus on top of 10% Cash Back on all NFL preseason bets.Load your account for football and get a 25% Bonus instantly added to your deposit when you enter the promocode: LOYALNFL12 in the cashier. Plus, place your bets on preseason games and if you don’t come away a winner, I’ll give you 10% Cash Back on your losses.It pays to play as Sportsbook. Get back in the game today and I’ll keep throwing more great bonuses your way all season long.Enjoy the season,
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Thanks for the free $250 sportsbook!
 
Parlay:

Kansas City Royals/Tampa Bay Rays Over 6 -180

Texas Rangers -181

Straight:

Philadelphia Phillies Over 4 -115

New York Yankees/Chicago White Sox Over 9 -105

 
Really thought that KC over would hit with Emmel behind the plate. He was 22-1 o/u with an 11.5 rpg average before tonight. You probably heard about him, he has been in the news for his over streak. Of course that’s usually when streaks like that come to an end. The o7 was juiced to hell by the time the game started.

TB was a good fade tonight the second day off their long road trip. Maddon had even commented before the game yesterday about fatigue being a factor tonight. Same deal with fading the Bucs tonight, two days removed from their 19 inning game and the second day after travelling to the west coast on no rest.

 
'ChainsawU said:
Really thought that KC over would hit with Emmel behind the plate. He was 22-1 o/u with an 11.5 rpg average before tonight. You probably heard about him, he has been in the news for his over streak. Of course that’s usually when streaks like that come to an end. The o7 was juiced to hell by the time the game started.TB was a good fade tonight the second day off their long road trip. Maddon had even commented before the game yesterday about fatigue being a factor tonight. Same deal with fading the Bucs tonight, two days removed from their 19 inning game and the second day after travelling to the west coast on no rest.
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Yeah, looks good. I was happy to go 1-1 and have a small profit :thumbup:
 
'lumpy19 said:
Got this from sportsbook.ag

At Sportsbook, we always reward our loyal members with the best bonuses which is why you can get a 25% Reload Bonus on top of 10% Cash Back on all NFL preseason bets.Load your account for football and get a 25% Bonus instantly added to your deposit when you enter the promocode: LOYALNFL12 in the cashier. Plus, place your bets on preseason games and if you don’t come away a winner, I’ll give you 10% Cash Back on your losses.It pays to play as Sportsbook. Get back in the game today and I’ll keep throwing more great bonuses your way all season long.Enjoy the season,
Click to expand...
Thanks for the free $250 sportsbook!
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So Lump, I'm pretty sure i know the answer to this one, but are you staying away from any of your teaser legs this week that usually fit your system since the starters will play longer? I have to say Jags +13 against Baltimore in Bal has me a bit worried. Just wondering if you play this week any different (though i am sure the answer is no). :popcorn:
 
Kansas City Royals +182

TB didn’t even show up last night, most likely a result of the fatigue from their west coast trip. Same angle today, thinking they still won’t be 100% playing early in the day and KC will have the advantage.

 
'modogg said:
'lumpy19 said:
Got this from sportsbook.ag

At Sportsbook, we always reward our loyal members with the best bonuses which is why you can get a 25% Reload Bonus on top of 10% Cash Back on all NFL preseason bets.Load your account for football and get a 25% Bonus instantly added to your deposit when you enter the promocode: LOYALNFL12 in the cashier. Plus, place your bets on preseason games and if you don’t come away a winner, I’ll give you 10% Cash Back on your losses.It pays to play as Sportsbook. Get back in the game today and I’ll keep throwing more great bonuses your way all season long.Enjoy the season,
Click to expand...
Thanks for the free $250 sportsbook!
Click to expand...
So Lump, I'm pretty sure i know the answer to this one, but are you staying away from any of your teaser legs this week that usually fit your system since the starters will play longer? I have to say Jags +13 against Baltimore in Bal has me a bit worried. Just wondering if you play this week any different (though i am sure the answer is no). :popcorn:
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Week 3x/4x have been the strongest weeks the past few years. Something new this year, the totals in the games this week are considerably higher than they have been in the past, not sure why.
 
Not totally sure how these rookies are going to fare on Bethpages length and rough, but Bud Cauley -125 over Seung yun Noh looks like a very solid play. At 80/1 to win tourney, i threw 10 on him to win too. A couple of other matchups I like are Haas +105 over Bo, and Keegan over Webb -115.

 
'lumpy19 said:
'modogg said:
'lumpy19 said:
Got this from sportsbook.ag

At Sportsbook, we always reward our loyal members with the best bonuses which is why you can get a 25% Reload Bonus on top of 10% Cash Back on all NFL preseason bets.Load your account for football and get a 25% Bonus instantly added to your deposit when you enter the promocode: LOYALNFL12 in the cashier. Plus, place your bets on preseason games and if you don’t come away a winner, I’ll give you 10% Cash Back on your losses.It pays to play as Sportsbook. Get back in the game today and I’ll keep throwing more great bonuses your way all season long.Enjoy the season,
Click to expand...
Thanks for the free $250 sportsbook!
Click to expand...
So Lump, I'm pretty sure i know the answer to this one, but are you staying away from any of your teaser legs this week that usually fit your system since the starters will play longer? I have to say Jags +13 against Baltimore in Bal has me a bit worried. Just wondering if you play this week any different (though i am sure the answer is no). :popcorn:
Click to expand...
Week 3x/4x have been the strongest weeks the past few years. Something new this year, the totals in the games this week are considerably higher than they have been in the past, not sure why.
Click to expand...
Overs went 12-4 last week so they got pounded right when the lines came out. I'm sure there will be some buyback if/when some key numbers are crossed.
 
'lumpy19 said:
Got this from sportsbook.ag

At Sportsbook, we always reward our loyal members with the best bonuses which is why you can get a 25% Reload Bonus on top of 10% Cash Back on all NFL preseason bets.Load your account for football and get a 25% Bonus instantly added to your deposit when you enter the promocode: LOYALNFL12 in the cashier. Plus, place your bets on preseason games and if you don’t come away a winner, I’ll give you 10% Cash Back on your losses.It pays to play as Sportsbook. Get back in the game today and I’ll keep throwing more great bonuses your way all season long.Enjoy the season,
Click to expand...
Thanks for the free $250 sportsbook!
Click to expand...
Anyone have any other suggestions for good initial/reload bonuses? Got a message for 100% reload bonus at bet365, max of $200 though.
 
Minnesota Twins +155

Minnesota Twins 1st 5 Innings +155

Round here, between Normadie and Western, we call this here a little twinny twin twin.

 
hfs, Scott Diamond just got tossed out for throwing at Josh Hamilton's head after Mauer got beaned in the back earlier this inning. :shock:

Counting on the Twins bullpen now. :mellow:

 
'lumpy19 said:
2+2 forum just reminded me that last night's TAINT was nothingthis was WAY worse(JAX +7.5)

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I lost a 3 game parlay about 6 years ago on something like this...Had Florida/Auburn Under....Chris Leak pitched it back some auburn dude scooped it and scored. I had the first two legs down. I think Auburn scored like 10 pts in the last 4 minutes to even make it close.
 
CC gave Asdrubal Cabrera the brushback retaliation pitch. It went all the way behind him.

Very next pitch Cabrera goes yard to deep center field.

 
'lumpy19 said:
2+2 forum just reminded me that last night's TAINT was nothingthis was WAY worse(JAX +7.5)

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You HAD to post this right? :lmao: I had BOTH sides teased in this game. It opened CIN-2.5 and closed JAX-1.5, IIRC. Top 3 worst gambling moment of my life. I think this killed like 15 teaser legs. If you dig back in this thread, I'm sure you can find some hilarity on this one.
 
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Any of you guys play any NFL o/u win totals? Sorry if I missed any talk about these, I haven't been around as much.

I like a few on SB, but some have outrageous juice. Looking at MIA(7-190)and NYJ(8.5-155) under, along with ATL(9-140), DET(9-115)and NO(9.5+115) overs. HOU over 9.5 looks like a dunk, but -220 makes it pretty tough to play. DAL (u8.5+150) looks like it might have some value.

I don't see any possible way that the Dolphins win 8 games. They do have a somewhat soft looking schedule, but they may be the least talented team in the NFL at the moment.

The Jets are a circus. Their offense will struggle, D is still solid though. I feel this is a team on the brink of imploding, and 5-11 would not be shocking. Schedule similar to MIA.

 
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'Man In The Box said:
Any of you guys play any NFL o/u win totals? Sorry if I missed any talk about these, I haven't been around as much. I like a few on SB, but some have outrageous juice. Looking at MIA(7-190)and NYJ(8.5-155) under, along with ATL(9-140), DET(9-115)and NO(9.5+115) overs. HOU over 9.5 looks like a dunk, but -220 makes it pretty tough to play. DAL (u8.5+150) looks like it might have some value. I don't see any possible way that the Dolphins win 8 games. They do have a somewhat soft looking schedule, but they may be the least talented team in the NFL at the moment. The Jets are a circus. Their offense will struggle, D is still solid though. I feel this is a team on the brink of imploding, and 5-11 would not be shocking. Schedule similar to MIA.
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I played quite a few. All your plays look good. I know i also grabbed Tenn ov7 and Buf ov too. I would have to check what else
 
Just noticed NFL season player props (futures) up on 5Dimes. Few I like:

Peyton Manning -0.5 TD passes +150 vs. Eli Manning

Rodgers -7.5 TD passes +110 vs. Romo

Brees -5.5 TD Passes +130 vs. Romo

Matty Ice +2 TD Passes -150 vs. Romo

Cutler +1.5 TD Passes -130 vs. Big Ben

Luck -2.5 TD Passes +100 vs. Bob Griffin

Foster Rush TD's -2.5 +100 vs. Turner (House & Mortgage fading Turner)

Rice -1 Rushing TD's -115 vs. Turner (Same as above)

Staying away from WR and TE, lines seem good and hard to predict to begin with and with a spread.

Even have kicker point spread match ups. I love this site.

 
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