Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
SF - 3.5 1H risking 2 units
SF has covered every First half when they have won except for last week. I think SF will benefit greatly from the extra rest and AZ will struggle with the SF D.
GLTA
AB
SF has covered every First half when they have won except for last week. I think SF will benefit greatly from the extra rest and AZ will struggle with the SF D.
GLTA
AB
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
The number seems unusually high. I almost thought the game was in SF for a minute.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Crap, when I can get a live line, it's iffy to get a play in. Internet is bogged down, must be Frankenstorm.
modogg
Footballguy
yup, not having live betting again is not doing me well. I am pretty sure Arizona won't score in this game, maybe 1 lucky TD.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Makes me want to F--KING VOMIT that I blew 5 suicide pool spots because NE couldn't beat this shit Arizona team... AT HOME!
modogg
Footballguy
yeah, it has been a crazy year for those pools. I joined a second chance league this week, and we lost over half of the entrants (1700 people or something) the first week. and these mother f'er 49'ers better not ruin this under by themselves.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Working on a "system" for CBB. Going to do some back-testing tonight. 
gussy
Footballguy
People don't like "systems" around here. That being said, I'll be betting the same system that made the masses millions in CBB last year. You're welcome.Working on a "system" for CBB. Going to do some back-testing tonight.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Idea/thought:
NBA teasers don't work, because you're not getting a good enough price for the value of 4 points. But the fewer points scored, the more valuable those 4 points become.
So at some point, does it become profitable to tease these games? What if you tease favorites in the 4.5 to 7 range down to 0.5-3, working under the assumption that when teams start to foul late, they're more often losing ground (points-wise) for the small chance that they make up ground? Additionally, are you better off betting a favorite with guards who can hit free throws?
tl;dr:
1) Low scoring games = good
2) 4.5 - 7 point favorites / 0.5 - 3 underdogs = good
3) Teams with ball-handling guards who can hit FT's = good
Can all of that get you to +EV on 4-point teasers, or, covering 71% of the time?
Apologies if anyone's ever gone over this before.
NBA teasers don't work, because you're not getting a good enough price for the value of 4 points. But the fewer points scored, the more valuable those 4 points become.
So at some point, does it become profitable to tease these games? What if you tease favorites in the 4.5 to 7 range down to 0.5-3, working under the assumption that when teams start to foul late, they're more often losing ground (points-wise) for the small chance that they make up ground? Additionally, are you better off betting a favorite with guards who can hit free throws?
tl;dr:
1) Low scoring games = good
2) 4.5 - 7 point favorites / 0.5 - 3 underdogs = good
3) Teams with ball-handling guards who can hit FT's = good
Can all of that get you to +EV on 4-point teasers, or, covering 71% of the time?
Apologies if anyone's ever gone over this before.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Re-watching Bad Lieutenant, just realized that the scene where Keitel wakes up and sees Strawberry hit a HR that allegedly makes it 11-3, the TV shows the scoreboard at 0-0. 
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
What system is that? Just curious. ThanksPeople don't like "systems" around here. That being said, I'll be betting the same system that made the masses millions in CBB last year. You're welcome.Working on a "system" for CBB. Going to do some back-testing tonight.
gussy
Footballguy
the "secret" system. You'll see.'Angry Beavers said:What system is that? Just curious. Thanks'gussy said:People don't like "systems" around here. That being said, I'll be betting the same system that made the masses millions in CBB last year. You're welcome.'Good said:Working on a "system" for CBB. Going to do some back-testing tonight.
The Ref
Footballguy
That and there really isn't anything to bet on tonight.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
opening night of NBA...
The Ref
Footballguy
Like I said....All kidding aside. Didn't the NBA start off with a huge amount of Unders early in he season last year?opening night of NBA...
cheese
Footballguy
We were off a layoff last year with the lockout. I'm not sure if that accounts for it or not. I'm leaning towards all favorites tonight, but NBA isn't my speciality.Like I said....All kidding aside. Didn't the NBA start off with a huge amount of Unders early in he season last year?opening night of NBA...
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I think that was most of it. No value doing this again.We were off a layoff last year with the lockout. I'm not sure if that accounts for it or not. I'm leaning towards all favorites tonight, but NBA isn't my speciality.Like I said....All kidding aside. Didn't the NBA start off with a huge amount of Unders early in he season last year?opening night of NBA...
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Not sure what my CFB record is so far but I'm probably averaging a 2-1 record a week, maybe better. Now we get into the prime weeks, more bets coming. 
The Ref
Footballguy
tailed
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Migod, the NBA is such a bore. I'm watching USC/Oregon from '02 on ESPN Classic.
gussy
Footballguy
I don't know a lot about soccer but I have it on good authority that the following 2 plays are money in the bank. I put one unit each on them:
Arsenal/Man U both teams to score -140
Arsenal/Man U over 2 1/2 -140
tail at your own peril but I typically would never throw a unit on a soccer match. Lines are at bovada.
Arsenal/Man U both teams to score -140
Arsenal/Man U over 2 1/2 -140
tail at your own peril but I typically would never throw a unit on a soccer match. Lines are at bovada.
derek245583
Footballguy
Over 2.5 is a great bet on that soccer match
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
So, how is that Tigers meltdown sitting with you?Momentum.Not sure what my CFB record is so far but I'm probably averaging a 2-1 record a week, maybe better. Now we get into the prime weeks, more bets coming.
is that on any American TV channels?
Guster
Footballguy
ESPN2 @8:30am
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Hey look it's the guy who posts his bets after the games are over.So, how is that Tigers meltdown sitting with you?Momentum.Not sure what my CFB record is so far but I'm probably averaging a 2-1 record a week, maybe better. Now we get into the prime weeks, more bets coming.
This is the wagering thread btw. We come here to make money, knob.I don't recall ever saying I played baseball. I also do not recall asking for your opinion on where to put my money. Why don't you stop worrying with me and go upstairs and give your mom the rogering she needs to make her pimp's quota.
Last edited by a moderator:
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
1) Co-sign on these bets, btw. And the short answer is that it's on tape delay tomorrow, but you're not really getting a proper Chelsea/Manchester matchup.2) This slate of mid-week games are part of the Capital Cup, which is a knockout tournament for the four top divisions of English soccer. Prestige-wise, it ranks far below actual league play, Champions League (a World Cup-style tourney with the best teams in Europe), or even the FA Cup, a completely separate knockout tournament in England which involved 20+ divisions of English football and runs pretty much year-round. Because of this, a lot of reserves/second-teamers will be used tomorrow. Chelsea and Man U actually played a league game this weekend, which had a great first half marred by some awful officiating in the second. My link
3) The Capital Cup TV rights are now owned (along with the Spanish league, the Italian league, and some USMNT qualifiers) by BeIN sport, a new channel as of this year which is owned by Al-Jazeera. BeIN only has so many slots to show so many live games, and they've made some curious decisions. Last week they pre-empted Juve/Napoli, which was the biggest match in Serie A to date, to show Real Madrid vs. Celta, one of the five best teams in the world against a minnow who just got promoted from the 2nd division. Tomorrow, they're showing Atletico Madrid vs. Real Jaen, a 3rd division Spanish team in a Copa Del Rey matchup, and pre-empting Chelsea/Man U. Which doesn't make any sense at all, unless La Liga has first priority in Cup games like this.
The best action is on weekends with the EPL games on Fox Soccer (they're going to NBC Sports next year), and La Liga on Serie A, and the Champions League games on Fox Soccer, which are typically Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
The listing I saw said Chelsea/Man U live at 3:40 on BeIN
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Oops, I'm dumb. I only have BeIN in Spanish (I get the English play-by-play by changing my SAP setitings), which probably accounts for why they show Spanish games uber alles.So yeah, BeIn English (DirecTV 620, Dish 408) has Chelsea/Man U live tomorrow. BeIn Spanish has Jaen/Atletico and Alcoyano/Real Madrid live.The listing I saw said Chelsea/Man U live at 3:40 on BeIN
Guster
Footballguy
The bet he listed was for ManU/Aresenal which is Saturday at 8:30 live on ESPN2Oops, I'm dumb. I only have BeIN in Spanish (I get the English play-by-play by changing my SAP setitings), which probably accounts for why they show Spanish games uber alles.So yeah, BeIn English (DirecTV 620, Dish 408) has Chelsea/Man U live tomorrow. BeIn Spanish has Jaen/Atletico and Alcoyano/Real Madrid live.The listing I saw said Chelsea/Man U live at 3:40 on BeIN
gmbacm
Footballguy
The bet he listed was for ManU/Aresenal which is Saturday at 8:30 live on ESPN2Oops, I'm dumb. I only have BeIN in Spanish (I get the English play-by-play by changing my SAP setitings), which probably accounts for why they show Spanish games uber alles.So yeah, BeIn English (DirecTV 620, Dish 408) has Chelsea/Man U live tomorrow. BeIn Spanish has Jaen/Atletico and Alcoyano/Real Madrid live.The listing I saw said Chelsea/Man U live at 3:40 on BeIN
which play are we discussing here?
Last edited by a moderator:
i want to tail. when is this game?
LaneOfSteel™
Footballguy
I have no idea how to even find this game on SB...
gmbacm
Footballguy
Saturday morning.Premier LeagueI have no idea how to even find this game on SB...
Last edited by a moderator:
gussy
Footballguy
Chargers/Chiefs Thursday night:
Wasn't really sure where I leaned on this game, part of me thinks KC cannot be this bad and a lot of their issues are turnover related, I thought the number was pretty high, but I also probably don't have the Chargers rated nearly as high as a lot of other people and I probably still have the Chiefs higher than most. That said I'm going to play the Chargers in a number of
7 point teasers and see what happens.
I teased the following sides/totals all together:
Chargers -2
Bengals +11
Browns +11
Browns/Ravens over 35 1/2
Seahawks +2
Falcons +3
All half unit plays
Also just added them in a FB 7 point BB 5 point tease with the Jazz tonight
Chargers -2
Jazz -3 1/2
Also with Grizz +8 1/2
Raptors +6 1/2
Wasn't really sure where I leaned on this game, part of me thinks KC cannot be this bad and a lot of their issues are turnover related, I thought the number was pretty high, but I also probably don't have the Chargers rated nearly as high as a lot of other people and I probably still have the Chiefs higher than most. That said I'm going to play the Chargers in a number of
7 point teasers and see what happens.
I teased the following sides/totals all together:
Chargers -2
Bengals +11
Browns +11
Browns/Ravens over 35 1/2
Seahawks +2
Falcons +3
All half unit plays
Also just added them in a FB 7 point BB 5 point tease with the Jazz tonight
Chargers -2
Jazz -3 1/2
Also with Grizz +8 1/2
Raptors +6 1/2
Last edited by a moderator:
optionmaven
Footballguy
Something makes me think Ref is involved with this.
http://www.usatodayhss.com/news/article/nine-charged-in-florida-youth-football-gambling-ring--1
http://www.usatodayhss.com/news/article/nine-charged-in-florida-youth-football-gambling-ring--1
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Jesus I'm going to shut up now.'gmbacm said:'LOCO said:Saturday morning.Premier League'LaneOfSteel™ said:I have no idea how to even find this game on SB...'LOCO said:
Man U and Arsenal are on at 8:45 AM EST on ESPN2.
