SEATTLE AT CHICAGO:
Seattle received early interest at the opener of +4.5. We’re now seeing +3.5 at press time. Were the line to drop all the way to -3, sharp money would come in on the Bears at that key number. And, sportsbooks would likely get flooded with square money (from the public) on Chicago on game day. People love betting the Bears as cheap home favorites. So, this line isn’t likely to drop any further barring injury or weather news. Sharps who liked the Seahawks are happy with Seattle at +4.5. Bears backers will have to decide if it’s a play or a pass. No movement on the total, which suggests dramatic weather influences aren’t expected. Note that we’ll only mention totals from this point forward in games the sharps have been attacking.
MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY:
More dog interest here. As Minnesota +9.5 has been bet down to Minnesota +8 or +8.5. Sharps weren’t interesting in waiting to see if the public drove the Packers line higher. They didn’t expect that given Green Bay’s inconsistent play of late. Note that this move drops Green Bay into the basic strategy teaser window. If it stays below nine, Green Bay -2 or -2.5 will be a popular choice in two-teamers for sharps and squares alike.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS:
The only sharp move here has been on the total, which dropped from an opener of 41 down to 40. Sharps expect a lower scoring game this time around after the surprising 24-all tie in a recent meeting. The 49ers defense has played at a very high level since then. San Francisco’s offense only scored 17 points last week in their win over New Orleans, with two defensive scores creating a victory margin. No movement on the team side line of San Francisco -7. We’re hearing sharps would likely fade any public move in either direction off that key number.
ARIZONA AT NY JETS:
The Jets opened at -3.5, and were bet up to -4.5. As we discussed before Thursday Night’s game between the Saints and Falcons…whenever a line opens and -3.5 and doesn’t move toward the key number, you know immediately that sharps don’t like the dog. Our sources say sharps are giving the Jets credit for climate and time zone edges as well in their analysis…and believe Jets -5 is the better line. Also, there seems to be a contingent of sharps who are betting the Thanksgiving teams this week because they all had extra days of rest. The total has dropped from 38 to 37 because Arizona’s offense is likely to have troubles against the New York defense in conditions they’re not used to.
CAROLINA AT KANSAS CITY:
The only interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 41.5 has dropped to 40. Carolina is laying a field goal off their Monday Night win in Philadelphia. Sharps don’t like asking road favorites to cover two in a row, particularly with short preparation. And, sharps have seen enough of this poor Kansas City offense to know that it’s best not to ask the team to cover short numbers. Sharps will fade a public move off the key number. This may be a game the public leaves alone for the most part, as one of the more unappealing matchups of the day.
INDIANAPOLIS AT DETROIT:
Slight move here on Detroit from an opener of -4.5 up to -5. We’re not near key numbers, and that’s not much of a move. Sharps don’t have much interest in this one given Andrew Luck’s inconsistency on the road, and Detroit’s inconsistency everywhere! Those who leaned Detroit have already bet (including those betting the Thanksgiving teams). Those who lean to the Colts are waiting to see if they can get better than +5.
JACKSONVILLE AT BUFFALO:
The numbers are frozen at Buffalo -6 with a total of 45, even if freezing temperatures aren’t as prevalent in the Ice Belt so far this season. You might see some 44.5’s out there, with the potential for a drop if the weather forecast changes (rain is currently expected). Sharps have liked what they’ve seen from the Jaguars since Chad Henne took over. But, they generally pay more attention to “out of climate” situations than the public does. We’re hearing that’s helped limit enthusiasm for a Southern team in a Northern game this week. Sharps did bet the Jets hosting Arizona. The fact that they didn’t bet Buffalo hosting Jacksonville suggests they wanted to pull the trigger on the underdog Jags and decided not to.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI:
Interesting game here. New England opened at -7, and is coming off some blowout wins. During much of the Belichick-Brady era, many sharps immediately took positions on the Patriots at the opener knowing the public would come in later and bet the blowout. We saw that here with an early move to New England -7.5 (which also followed the post-Thanksgiving trend). Sharps will now wait to see if the number goes higher to set up creative possibilities. If the public comes in on the Pats to move the line to -8, -8.5, or -9…sharps will buy back on the home dog. We’re hearing some will come over the top on the dog (place a bigger bet on Miami +8.5 or +9 than they did on New England -7). And, all this is happening around the teaser window. New England -1.5, -2, or -2.5 would be a very popular choice in two-team teasers this week. The last thing sportsbooks want is to be flooded with Green Bay/New England teaser combo’s.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE:
Houston opened at -4.5 and was bet up to -6. This is the biggest move for any of the Thanksgiving teams. Sharps have a lot of respect for the Texans, which was true last year before the injury to Schaub as well. The total has dropped a point from 48 to 47 because of Houston’s general tendency to sit on leads and run clock once they’ve built a lead. Sharps who like Houston also like them to sit on the lead once they get it.
TAMPA BAY AT DENVER:
Denver opened at -6.5 and was bet quickly up to -7. This is another out of climate/out of time zone game that attracted their attention. Though, the forecast is for low 60’s with no wind…so the game might as well be played in Tampa! Of course, altitude could be a factor with a visitor coming off two divisional battles. Oddsmakers apparently thought sharps would stay in love with the Bucs given that low opener, based on betting tendencies over the past month. Not here. Interesting that the line didn’t move above the key number of seven though. It probably would have if the forecast was for temperatures in the 30’s or below.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE:
Oddsmakers haven’t posted a number as of press time because of the quarterback situation for Pittsburgh. Sharps have a number in mind, and will bet accordingly once they see something go up on the board. We don’t think you’ll have any trouble reading sharp sentiment if you monitor the first two hours of betting action once a number goes up.
CLEVELAND AT OAKLAND:
No line yet here either because of the injury situation in Cleveland. You know Vegas sportsbooks will have numbers up on game day because they get so much action in the late afternoon starts. Something like Browns/Raiders might be heavily bet as a 4 p.m. ET start in California, but lightly bet as a 1 p.m. ET start in Ohio.
CINCINNATI AT SAN DIEGO:
The biggest team side move so far this week came on the Bengals, who opened at +1 but are now -1.5 or -2. It’s interesting that support for Cincinnati creates a teaser play on the Chargers! If the line stays in that range, then San Diego will join the list of options for basic strategy teasers. Note that support for the Bengals wasn’t enough to drive the number all the way to three. Keep an eye on Cincinnati. They’ve been winning lately and are now positioned to make a playoff run. Our sources say sharps were very surprised they opened as a small underdog here. The total has dropped from 47.5 down to 46 because San Diego’s offense has struggled so much in recent weeks.
PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS:
The Cowboys opened at -9, and were bet up to -10…continuing the theme of Thanksgiving teams drawing sharp action on the openers. Sure doesn’t hurt that Philadelphia is in a free-fall and coming off a Monday Night game. Very big edge in preparation for the Cowboys with that combination. It’s kind of amazing that Philadelphia with Foles was only +3.5 in Washington, but is now +10 in Dallas. They earned it. They really have been that bad even if they competed better vs. Carolina this past Monday. Panthers tickets still cashed.
There hasn’t been any movement yet in Monday Night’s game between the NY Giants and Washington Redskins. We’ll work up a special report by midday Monday on that game for you. It’s interesting that Washington +2.5 didn’t see support the way the other Thanksgiving teams had (line moves toward Houston, Detroit, Dallas, New England, and the NY Jets WEREN’T joined by a line move on the Skins. That may be the nature of the line’s relationship to the key number of three. Sharps who like Washington are waiting to see if the public drives the favored Giants higher on game day. By itself, the fact that the Giants sat at -2.5 all week without going up tells you that sharps like Washington. If sharps liked the Giants, they would have jumped in quickly at that number.
, and I think I'm gonna tail u on the horns.
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