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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

'Doctor Detroit said:
'Sweet Feet said:
'Man In The Box said:
Giants -2.5 is my biggest play tomorrow. GL
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I like that game and 49ers +1, Dallas -2.5, Pats -14.5Vikings +7.5, Bears -6, Bengals +3.5 :unsure:
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Have Browns +13Colts, Seahawks, Rams and Texans in teasersConsidering Panthers, Redskins and Bengals in teasers but haven't done anything yet. Any of those attractive to anyone?
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:yes: on the skins and bengals.
'Billy Bats said:
I see quite a few teasable games on Sunday which usually spells trouble. Redskins -6.5Houston -7.5Indy -6.5Cincy +3.5SD +2.5Really like Indy straight along with the Giants. Thinking also about teasing Atlanta tomorrow night through zero just to make sure nothing stupid happens, like them winning by one point. Plus I hate them but I can't see them losing outright to Detroit.
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Sharps ... W16

TENNESSEE AT GREEN BAY:

The only move here has been on the total, as an opener of 47 has been bet down to 46. We’re hearing that’s because of the forecast for temperatures in the low 20’s. and the thought that Green Bay will run clock if they get a lead. The Packers are favored by a whopping 12.5 points against a lame duck visitor from the other conference. In essence, sharps are showing support for the Packers by betting the Under rather than laying the very high team side price.

OAKLAND AT CAROLINA:

Not much interest in this game. The line has dropped from Oakland +9 to Oakland +8.5 on the news that Terrelle Pryor would see extended playing time for the Raiders. That at least tells you one Raider will be trying to impress! We’re hearing from our sources that sharps are more comfortable betting Carolina as underdogs and cheap favorites off this recent surge than they are laying more than a TD in a meaningless game. Carolina will be in the basic strategy teaser window if the line stays at -8.5. Sharps are historically less aggressive with teasers in meaningless games because the value of each point isn’t quite the same. They would still like Carolina here though in teasers based on what we’re hearing.

BUFFALO AT MIAMI:

The totals guys bet the Under here, with an opener of 43 dropping down to 41.5. We’re hearing that’s mostly keyed by respect for Miami’s defense. Here’s another game with nothing at stake. Sharps are expecting both teams to play out the string and get the game over with. Not much interest on the team side with Miami holding strong at -4.5 for an extended period off an opener of -5. Let’s get to some games that matter!

CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH:

Here we go. This is a huge game in the AFC Wildcard race because the Bengals and Steelers are fighting for the sixth and final available spot (assuming Indianapolis wraps up the #5 seed with a win in Kansas City). This is basically a playoff game NOW. Sharps have bet that way, taking the dog and the Under. Cincinnati +4 on the opener is down to Cincinnati +3.5. The total opened at 43 but is down to 41.5 because of playoff intensity, chilly temperatures, and a field surface that often inhibits scoring. It’s worth noting that the team side line hasn’t moved all the way down to the key number of three yet. Were that to happen, we have heard that many sharps would come in on the Steelers because of their big game experience in recent seasons.

NEW ENGLAND AT JACKSONVILLE:

New England opened at the VERY high line of -14.5 on the road. The line hasn’t moved…which, in this case, actually represents unspoken support for the favorite. If sharps liked the dog, they definitely would have taken the hook and bet the line down to 14 or even 13.5. That DIDN’T happen. Sharps expect a one-sided game. Few professional wagerers like laying big spreads in the NFL though because of relative parity and garbage time. Were the public to lay the points on Sunday (which is fairly likely), we’re hearing some sharps might come in at Jacksonville +16. The total has been bet up from 49 to 50 or 50.5. As we saw in that Green Bay-Tennessee game, sharps are showing “support” for a big favorite by playing the logical total tendency rather than laying a high price.

INDIANAPOLIS AT KANSAS CITY:

Indianapolis opened at -6, and has been bet up to -7 because a win clinches the #5 seed, and because Kansas City may be trying to lose to lock in the #1 draft pick next year. It’s telling though that sharps didn’t drive the line past the key number of seven. They’re still skeptical of this soft Colts defense…and they know Andrew Luck has been turnover prone on the road. We wouldn’t be surprised if the public bet the Colts higher on game day. We’re hearing sharps will think about the Chiefs if the line goes to +8.

NEW ORLEANS AT DALLAS:

We’re currently sitting on the openers of Dallas -3 and 51.5 in most stores. Dallas does need the game in the playoff chase…but every game is a battle for them this year. They’re not the type to win comfortably. And, New Orleans gets a lot of respect from sharps because Drew Brees is still putting up big numbers. We’re hearing that sharps would fade a public move in either direction because they think Dallas -3 is the right number.

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA:

Sharps have been waiting for a definitive word on the status of Robert Griffin III before getting involved here. How he feels on game day is going to matter the most. Sharps don’t see any reason to bet early before his condition is locked in. Washington opened at -6.5 as a road favorite. Stores now are showing either that line or Skins -6. This is a huge game for Washington in the NFC East and Wildcard races. If it looks like RGIII will be at or near 100% health, we would expect sharp money to hit the six in an attempt to beat the public

ST. LOUIS AT TAMPA BAY:

Nothing at stake here for two six-win teams who lost badly last week to fall out of the Wildcard picture. Sharps are leaving the game alone thus far, and probably will all weekend. They would fade any public move off the key number. But, this isn’t a game the public is likely to bet.

NY GIANTS AT BALTIMORE:

Big support for the Giants here. They opened at +1 on the road, but are now laying -2.5. Both of these teams lost important games by big margins last week. The Giants have shown an ability to bounce back with this coach and quarterback. Baltimore looks like they’re imploding, and the team is losing confidence in Joe Flacco. Sharps gladly “asked the Giants to win” at prices near pick-em, but didn’t carry that support all the way to the key number of three. We have heard that Baltimore money would come in at +3…and that the mere threat of Baltimore money coming back hard over the top is keeping this line at +2.5 right now. Baltimore is just the second team in the teaser window so far in today’s discussion. Sharps would be getting 9.5 points on the opener with a six-point move here, which is something they pay attention to.

MINNESOTA AT HOUSTON:

Important games for both teams. Houston can earn the #1 seed in the AFC by winning out, which is something they desperately want to do because nobody wants to visit Denver or New England in January. Minnesota is one of a large hunk of teams at 8-6 in the NFC, fighting for Wildcards. The opener here of Houston -7 was bet up to -7.5 of -8. That’s strong support for the favorite because it moves off a key number. And, it also creates a teaser opportunity on the favorite that sportsbooks are going to have to sweat. Houston was bet hard last week vs. Indy, and ended up getting the money in a 12-point win. We’re hearing the reason for the move was that sharps believe Houston’s run defense can contain Adrian Peterson.

CLEVELAND AT DENVER:

Denver has been bet up from an opener of -12 to -13. This is the first double digit favorite that’s moved UP. That’s a combination of a must-win spot for Denver because of the race for the #2 seed (the Broncos earn at least a #2 seed if they win out), and a late season road game at altitude for a lame duck opponent. Cleveland was drilled 38-21 last week at home by a rookie quarterback. A line under two touchdowns doesn’t seem that high when they now travel to Denver to face Peyton Manning! The line hasn’t moved up to -14 though because of concerns about garbage time. Remember that the Broncos gave away late double digit leads on this field recently to both San Diego and Tampa Bay.

CHICAGO AT ARIZONA:

Not much interest in this game beyond the Under, as an opener of 37.5 has been bet down to 36.5. Chicago opened at -5.5 and has stood solid. Sharps don’t trust Jay Cutler on the road against a good defense. Sharps don’t trust any Arizona quarterback against a good defense. They know the Bears need the win in the Wildcard race, but are aware of the recent slide out of first place. Under or pass from sharps. We are hearing sharps are expecting the public to back the Bears…and they would definitely take Arizona at +7, and might take them at +6.

SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE:

This game was time-changed to prime time for NBC. That will make it the most bet game of the week by a significant margin. It’s a game everyone wants to see and to bet. It’s sitting on pick-em right now, off an opener of Seattle -1. The total has been bet down from 40.5 to 39.5 because the first meeting was such a defensive struggle.

SAN DIEGO AT NY JETS:

This game was time-changed to an early Sunday kickoff. It had originally been the Sunday Night game, but NBC opted out so it could have the best game of the day instead of one of the worst! The total has dropped from an opener of 41 down to 38 or 38.5 because of the Jets quarterback switch from Mark Sanchez to Greg McElroy, because of San Diego’s long sustained offensive woes, and because of a forecast for windy and chilly conditions in a stadium where swirling winds have messed up deep throws since its recent opening. The team side line of Jets -2.5 hasn’t budged. That will put San Diego in the teaser window. Sharps will be cautious here though because it’s a meaningless game for the visitor, and it’s their second trip East in the last three weeks.
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'Billy Bats said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Sweet Feet said:
'Man In The Box said:
Giants -2.5 is my biggest play tomorrow. GL
Click to expand...
I like that game and 49ers +1, Dallas -2.5, Pats -14.5Vikings +7.5, Bears -6, Bengals +3.5 :unsure:
Click to expand...
Have Browns +13Colts, Seahawks, Rams and Texans in teasersConsidering Panthers, Redskins and Bengals in teasers but haven't done anything yet. Any of those attractive to anyone?
Click to expand...
:yes: on the skins and bengals.
'Billy Bats said:
I see quite a few teasable games on Sunday which usually spells trouble. Redskins -6.5Houston -7.5Indy -6.5Cincy +3.5SD +2.5Really like Indy straight along with the Giants. Thinking also about teasing Atlanta tomorrow night through zero just to make sure nothing stupid happens, like them winning by one point. Plus I hate them but I can't see them losing outright to Detroit.
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Rolled Panthers, Bengals, Skins into a couple of 3-teamers. 8 total teasers, five have the Colts. :unsure:
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Billy Bats said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Sweet Feet said:
'Man In The Box said:
Giants -2.5 is my biggest play tomorrow. GL
Click to expand...
I like that game and 49ers +1, Dallas -2.5, Pats -14.5Vikings +7.5, Bears -6, Bengals +3.5 :unsure:
Click to expand...
Have Browns +13Colts, Seahawks, Rams and Texans in teasersConsidering Panthers, Redskins and Bengals in teasers but haven't done anything yet. Any of those attractive to anyone?
Click to expand...
:yes: on the skins and bengals.
'Billy Bats said:
I see quite a few teasable games on Sunday which usually spells trouble. Redskins -6.5Houston -7.5Indy -6.5Cincy +3.5SD +2.5Really like Indy straight along with the Giants. Thinking also about teasing Atlanta tomorrow night through zero just to make sure nothing stupid happens, like them winning by one point. Plus I hate them but I can't see them losing outright to Detroit.
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Rolled Panthers, Bengals, Skins into a couple of 3-teamers. 8 total teasers, five have the Colts. :unsure:
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:lmao: Yea I'm backing off the Colts straight, indoor team as road favorite playing in KC weather and that stadium? Regardless of how bad they are, not feeling great about laying 6.5-7 with the kid. Gladly take them -.5 though, still loading them up in a teaser. :thumbup: Starting to believe in Houston too. I think they keep AP human and Ponder straight sucks. I think Houston rolls at home.
 
'BRONG said:
Saw some FF talk in here and since I'm bored off my ### waiting for this game to start, check this out...In the Final with a lead in total points of .08 and I'm playing the team that is 2nd in points. So whoever wins, wins the lions share of both pots. Over 10K, and that does not include all the sidebets with teams. So I'm looking at a lumpy-sized swing here of over 3K with a chance to clean house.Tonight's big for me as I have Ryan and CJ going. Hoping for a good old RN OVAH here. :popcorn:
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:stalker:
 
I might be down to exclusively posting in this thread soon. Hyperbole machines like Jonessed and random Tim posts have pushed me to the edge of the innerwebs.

 
'Mr. Pickles said:
'BRONG said:
Saw some FF talk in here and since I'm bored off my ### waiting for this game to start, check this out...In the Final with a lead in total points of .08 and I'm playing the team that is 2nd in points. So whoever wins, wins the lions share of both pots. Over 10K, and that does not include all the sidebets with teams. So I'm looking at a lumpy-sized swing here of over 3K with a chance to clean house.Tonight's big for me as I have Ryan and CJ going. Hoping for a good old RN OVAH here. :popcorn:
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:stalker:
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:yes: You done good, Billy. Anybody in the FFAWT think Crabtree will outscore Ridley? He's kind of a safer selection at this point, and with the Ryan-CJ opener to the week, makes some more sense.Other decision is D: WASH or MIAMI?Will Answer Yours.
 
^ mistakenly thought Houston was @ Minnesota.. whoops. Will be playing Texans also. Texans should be able to force Ponder to turn the ball over along with a few sacks. I expect Schaub to have a good day against the Vikes secondary.

I'm leaning towards O/45

Vikings 20

Houston 30

Im also on the Panthers but is it false hope to think the line drops from +8.5?

I dont believe the Titans are that bad but Im almost inclined to take GB -12.5 :unsure:

 
'BRONG said:
'Mr. Pickles said:
'BRONG said:
Saw some FF talk in here and since I'm bored off my ### waiting for this game to start, check this out...In the Final with a lead in total points of .08 and I'm playing the team that is 2nd in points. So whoever wins, wins the lions share of both pots. Over 10K, and that does not include all the sidebets with teams. So I'm looking at a lumpy-sized swing here of over 3K with a chance to clean house.Tonight's big for me as I have Ryan and CJ going. Hoping for a good old RN OVAH here. :popcorn:
Click to expand...
:stalker:
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:yes: You done good, Billy. Anybody in the FFAWT think Crabtree will outscore Ridley? He's kind of a safer selection at this point, and with the Ryan-CJ opener to the week, makes some more sense.Other decision is D: WASH or MIAMI?Will Answer Yours.
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I think you're just freaked out about Ridley after last week's abortion of an effort. JAC gives up the most points to fantasy RBs vs. SEA that gives up the least points to fantasy WRs. Let's not overthink this, Clive.On defense, I dunno. I'm starting to warm up to MIA over WAS, but I think it's a coinflip. The "experts" seem to favor MIA, but I think WAS has a higher ceiling.
 
'BRONG said:
Anybody in the FFAWT think Crabtree will outscore Ridley? He's kind of a safer selection at this point, and with the Ryan-CJ opener to the week, makes some more sense.Other decision is D: WASH or MIAMI?
Click to expand...
I dont think Crabtree outscores Ridley this week since Sherman will be playing and I'll take Miami in a close call over Washington.
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
I might be down to exclusively posting in this thread soon. Hyperbole machines like Jonessed and random Tim posts have pushed me to the edge of the innerwebs.
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Good decision. Tapered off most of that awhile ago...so useless. Gambling thread is pretty funny and not serious biz...mo betta, imo, hth tia.Pretty buzzed at the moment. :thumbup: :banned:
 
'Mr. Pickles said:
'BRONG said:
'Mr. Pickles said:
'BRONG said:
Saw some FF talk in here and since I'm bored off my ### waiting for this game to start, check this out...In the Final with a lead in total points of .08 and I'm playing the team that is 2nd in points. So whoever wins, wins the lions share of both pots. Over 10K, and that does not include all the sidebets with teams. So I'm looking at a lumpy-sized swing here of over 3K with a chance to clean house.Tonight's big for me as I have Ryan and CJ going. Hoping for a good old RN OVAH here. :popcorn:
Click to expand...
:stalker:
Click to expand...
:yes: You done good, Billy. Anybody in the FFAWT think Crabtree will outscore Ridley? He's kind of a safer selection at this point, and with the Ryan-CJ opener to the week, makes some more sense.Other decision is D: WASH or MIAMI?Will Answer Yours.
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I think you're just freaked out about Ridley after last week's abortion of an effort. JAC gives up the most points to fantasy RBs vs. SEA that gives up the least points to fantasy WRs. Let's not overthink this, Clive.On defense, I dunno. I'm starting to warm up to MIA over WAS, but I think it's a coinflip. The "experts" seem to favor MIA, but I think WAS has a higher ceiling.
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lol @ Clive. Look, we know it's gonna be Ridley, I just like seeing if anyone has anything else to offer. Doesn't hurt to search a little...especially when you're too lazy to dig for yourself. :bowtie:Like how about taking Ingram and the guaranteed points, with that lead already going? The floor is likely more important than the ceiling now, Bjorn.
 
Brong, the Eagles really enjoy giving up the rock, leading the league in turnovers with 34. I started Washington over Atlanta without hesitation. Better chance at a def td with Wash IMO.

 
'Sweet Feet said:
'Billy Bats said:
Brong, the Eagles really enjoy giving up the rock, leading the league in turnovers with 34. I started Washington over Atlanta without hesitation. Better chance at a def td with Wash IMO.
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flip side to that is Shady is back so we'll see.
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McCoy played last time they played the Redskins and did little to nothing. The Eagles are going to ease him back in so it'll probably be 50-50 at best for him and the Eagles don't have Desean. It is their last game at home under Reid so I'm sure they'll want to send him out a winner, so I wouldn't bet against them, but from a fantasy standpoint, I'd start Washington defense.
 
'Sweet Feet said:
'Billy Bats said:
Brong, the Eagles really enjoy giving up the rock, leading the league in turnovers with 34. I started Washington over Atlanta without hesitation. Better chance at a def td with Wash IMO.
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flip side to that is Shady is back so we'll see.
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Yeah, that was a bummer. I'll still have hard time not starting the Skins but again, Miami probly has the higher floor here, and with the good start tonight that does make some sense. But screw it.And Pickles, you get $500 if I win. HTH. :banned: banned: :banned:
 
'sporthenry said:
'Sweet Feet said:
'Billy Bats said:
Brong, the Eagles really enjoy giving up the rock, leading the league in turnovers with 34. I started Washington over Atlanta without hesitation. Better chance at a def td with Wash IMO.
Click to expand...
flip side to that is Shady is back so we'll see.
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McCoy played last time they played the Redskins and did little to nothing. The Eagles are going to ease him back in so it'll probably be 50-50 at best for him and the Eagles don't have Desean. It is their last game at home under Reid so I'm sure they'll want to send him out a winner, so I wouldn't bet against them, but from a fantasy standpoint, I'd start Washington defense.
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yea just meant that I dont expect as many turnovers from the RB position since Shady is playing. Brown carries the rock like a loaf of bread. I agree, Washington is still a good play but I'd go with Miami. Close call though
 
'Billy Bats said:
Brong, the Eagles really enjoy giving up the rock, leading the league in turnovers with 34. I started Washington over Atlanta without hesitation. Better chance at a def td with Wash IMO.
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I'll add that about 2/3 of those turnovers were with Vick, probably more. The guy was king at turning it over.
 
Glad I was so sold on the lions last night. Worked out great. On that note, I'm gonna throw down a double mind-#### tomorrow in that same vein and take Oakland +9. Hell, someone has to replace the Hucks, right? :unsure:

 
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