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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

'nittanylion said:
'nittanylion said:
1u Arkansas Razorbacks ML +115 @ Texas A&M AggiesAs some are aware, I am an intense follower of Razorbacks Basketball, and SEC Hoops in general. I've been following the Teams more than casually during the non-conference season while focusing on football, but I've been paying close attention to this Hogs Team, as last season's results disappointed, but the team itself, and it's incoming freshmen had me excited about '12-'13 Team's potential. The '11-'12 Team had to cope with the saddening departure of star shooter Rotnei Clarke (Butler), and this Team will have to do without Anthlon Bell (TCU), who stepped in nicely for Clarke last year, but watching them play over the last few months has served to verify my excitement about this squad. This is a young, but rapidly maturing team, led by two legitimate studs in PG BJ Young and F Marshawn Powell, with improving veteran depth (no seniors, but loaded with juniors and sophomores who saw plenty of minutes last year), and a contributing trio of exciting freshmen. Powell was lost for the season during the 4th game of the year in '11-12, and the team didn't have the horses to overcome that loss along with the departure of Clarke. Powell is back, looking every bit as good as before, and gone are some senior holdovers from the previous coach who were talented enough to log starts and big minutes, but who ultimately didn't fit Mike Anderson's system. This team is loaded with Anderson's guys, and Anderson's attitude, forged directly through Nolan Richardson's tutalege as both a player and assistant.Now, the SEC is relatively weak by their standards, at this moment in the Season. Outside of Mizzou, Florida and Kentucky there's nothing resembling a sweet 16 prospect. It's fluid, though, of course, and there are certainly some teams with potential, including Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Alabama, along with the Hogs. I think Arkansas is a more COMPLETE Team than any of the other contenders, and that being said, is ready for a step up in class. They aren't the typical SEC mid-pack team with an overinflated record based on a weak non-conference schedule. I want to define 'step up in class': with the addition of Mizzou and Texas A&M, the SEC has swelled to 14 Teams. Barring injury, I predict this Arkansas Team will finish comfortably within the Top 7, with a legitimate shot at finishing as high as 4th, and be in contention for a low-seeded Tournament Bid. I look at them as sort of like a poor-man's '12-'13 Kentucky. Not quite the talent, but a similar scenario of a team hitting it's stride entering conference play, with the potential for steady improvement through the conference schedule, and a tough out every night.They played a tough non-conference schedule, especially a brutal early stretch where they advance to the final 4 of the Las Vegas Invitational, where they lost to strong Arizona State and Wisconsin teams on consecutive nights. In both games, they played great 1st halves, and came apart in the 2nd. A week later, they gave Syracuse a helluva game @ Bud Walton, where the shooting went cold at the same time 'cuse's James Southerland went white hot and posted a career night. Hogs bounced back by nipping Oklahoma in the next game before falling @ Michigan 80-67. In that game, they were in it until BJ Young banged up his leg in the 2nd half, and gave the Wolverines one of their toughest tests of the season.Arizona State, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Michigan. I don't know another team that's played a stretch like that non-conference, and although the Hogs went 1-4, they weren't embarrassed in any of the losses, and showed improvement throughout - the losses to Syracuse and Michigan were nothing like the losses to ASU and Wisconsin, and Boeheim and Beilein both praised the Hogs effort. Mike Anderson, an alumnus who played on some great Hogs Teams, and a Nolan Richardson disciple if there ever was one is settling in, and while the Hogs may be not be the most talented team, they are deep and tough with energy and stamina, and have a potent offense and are effectively playing that frenetic style of D that Richardson's Teams were famous for. Though they are doing a great job turning teams over, they need to do a better job getting stops. High on turnovers, poor on opponent FG %, but they are improving, and their own shooting is improving as well, which is just as effective a remedy.They followed up the loss @ Michigan with 5 straight wins leading into tonight's game. Now, all were at home, and versus more typical early-season competition, but there were no slip-ups or sloppy performances. Robert Morris put up a fight, but the Hogs led the game wire-to-wire, and they hamerred the other 4,as they should have, and the 4th win of the streak was vs Northwestern State, currently 2nd in the nation in scoring and 6th in rebounding. Arkansas held them 25 points below their season average.In short, this Arkansas Team SHOULD beat every Team it's supposed to, stay in games versus superior Teams, and may post a pleasant surprise here and there along the way. Again, I'm not predicting greatness, but the way their SEC Schedule breaks down at this moment in time, over 18 games, I think 13-5 is an attainable goal for this team.Texas A&M is a lower-tier SEC Team, with a gaudy record stemming from a weak non-conference schedule. I think they face some exposure tonight, and even though it's a road game for Arkansas, I'm not seeing much evidence that the Hogs getting points vs a lower-tier team is something we're going to see much of in upcoming weeks, so I'm grabbing this while it lasts.If this wasn't the conference season opener and on the road, I'd play much heavier.Good Luck!
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, Well, this was an epic fail :bag: ...apologies to those who tailed. Based on what I'd seen during the recent loss @ Michigan, and the fact that this IS a better and deeper Hogs Team than last year, I thought for sure that vs equal or lesser competition, they'd found the cure for the road ineptitude that has plagued the Mike Anderson regime, but until they prove otherwise, the Razorbacks are apparently still a remarkably different traveling squad than the one that plays within the friendly confines of Bud Walton. This pushed their road record under Anderson to 1-14, I think. It didn't help that Marshawn Powell was plagued with foul trouble right from the get-go, which relegated him to a non-factor, and nights are going to be long when he and BJ Young aren't clicking. The Hogs were also embarrasingly soft inside, which brought up unsettling shades of last season too...from what I'd seen previously this year, I didn't see that happening, especially not that poorly.Well, they're back at Bud Walton today, playing a Vanderbilt squad who took Kentucky to the final 2 minutes at Vandy on Thursday, and the line is Hogs -11, which looks shocking, but is probably fair. Kentucky at this point in the season is vastly over-rated, and should be expected to struggle on the road until they find themselves, and the 'cats blew a 16-point lead in a game that wasn't nearly that close. The Commodores are a ridiculously young team, who shoot and score mostly from the outside, but they aren't terribly accurate, and traveling to Bud Walton is no picnic. I don't think they have the personnel to handle the press or run with the Hogs at home. I'm sure Mike Anderson excoriated his team after this loss, and home cooking ought to get Young-to-Powell back on track. Arkansas is neither as bad, or is A&M as good as either looked on Thursday.I'm sure enough that we'll see a return to form today that I'm going to try and get my lost unit back, but I don't advise anyone to tail me. I'm simply posting to apologize for a lean that went horribly wrong on Thursday. I figure if I keep posting my thoughts about the Hogs, you all will eventually have enough info to make some $ either by tailing or fading.Razorbacks Basketball 0-1 -1.1uToday playing 1u Arkansas -11 vs VanderbiltNFL:Broncos -9Broncos Over 27 points -120Packers ML +135ML Parlay: Broncos/Packers/Patriots/FalconsTeaser: Broncos -2.5/Packers +10/Patriots -2.5Broncos -2.5/Pats-Texans Over 42Probably more later...Good Luck!
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tl, dw
 
TCU +18 1/2Baylor has Kansas on deck. Last time Baylor had a look ahead spot they lost to Charleston prior to playing Kentucky. Classic lookahead play.Air Force +13 1/2Sandwich spot for UNLV coming off a loss to New Mexico, looking ahead to the next three of San Diego St., Colorado St. and Wyoming.

 
One of the gay dudes I am buddies with, his dad is a contractor, and did a lot of work on my house a few years ago by rebuilding the electrical system, removing a wall, remodeling the bathroom, and building my back porch. And is coming over at 8am to discuss installing a HD projector in my living room.

 
O 23 2nd half. Denver averaging nearly 6 yds per play and BAlt higher than that. I don't see adjustments changing the physical mismatches that both offenses are creating.GLTAABWhile I was at it I added GB/SF o 45 for a unit as well.

 
'Angry Beavers said:
'shake zula said:
'Angry Beavers said:
O 23 2nd half. Denver averaging nearly 6 yds per play and BAlt higher than that. I don't see adjustments changing the physical mismatches that both offenses are creating.GLTAABWhile I was at it I added GB/SF o 45 for a unit as well.
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AB I think you saved me a unit. :goodposting:
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I hope so. Looks like both offenses are slowing down and trying to establish a ground game :unsure:
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Even if it hits I would've been miserable stressing. I'll save it for tonight's game.GB +3 1uGB ML +135 1uGB/SF o45 1uHouston (NBA) 1uHouston o203 .5u
 
'tjnc09 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Clorox said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Not sure about this. Flacco to Boldin looked fantastic last week and Pierce offers another gear to the running game. Baltimore's defense was missing almost everyone for the first meeting, all those dudes are back. Plus IMO Denver is as overrated as Atlanta is underrated, I think the Ravens keep it close. I've convinced myself one of the two AFC games will be close or an upset, this seems like the right one I guess.
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:goodposting: I was coming into I say this. If anything Rice the bleak spot in the Colts game and it almost cost his team. I do think the Ravens (still do not buy Flacco) and Texans (think they are soft) are both pretenders, but I also tend I think one game might be closer than expected.
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Colts were the worst DVOA rated defense in the league. Denver's defense is much much better especially at home.
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I don't think anyone would argue that Denver isn't the better team on paper, probably by a good margin.
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Would or wouldn't? I just didn't know what Flaccos success at home vs the Colts had to do with his future success on the road vs the broncos :shrug:
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FixedMe and Man in the Box are the only guys on Baltimore, I'm sure you have your reasons for not liking the Ravens.
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I am also taking Baltimore +10 but not because of how they looked vs. Indy. That was my point. +10 is a big number especially with the grim weather report. Peyton hasn't had a lot of success in the playoffs in the cold (though this is a home game) and the last time they played Ray Lewis was out, it was Caldwell's first game ever calling plays, and that pick-6 really inflated the margin of victory for Denver. Not going to lay in bed with the public here for double digits.
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Still looking good. This is a really good offense when they have things clicking.
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Clorox said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Not sure about this. Flacco to Boldin looked fantastic last week and Pierce offers another gear to the running game. Baltimore's defense was missing almost everyone for the first meeting, all those dudes are back. Plus IMO Denver is as overrated as Atlanta is underrated, I think the Ravens keep it close. I've convinced myself one of the two AFC games will be close or an upset, this seems like the right one I guess.
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:goodposting: I was coming into I say this. If anything Rice the bleak spot in the Colts game and it almost cost his team. I do think the Ravens (still do not buy Flacco) and Texans (think they are soft) are both pretenders, but I also tend I think one game might be closer than expected.
Click to expand...
Colts were the worst DVOA rated defense in the league. Denver's defense is much much better especially at home.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone would argue that Denver isn't the better team on paper, probably by a good margin.
Click to expand...
Would or wouldn't? I just didn't know what Flaccos success at home vs the Colts had to do with his future success on the road vs the broncos :shrug:
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FixedMe and Man in the Box are the only guys on Baltimore, I'm sure you have your reasons for not liking the Ravens.
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I am also taking Baltimore +10 but not because of how they looked vs. Indy. That was my point. +10 is a big number especially with the grim weather report. Peyton hasn't had a lot of success in the playoffs in the cold (though this is a home game) and the last time they played Ray Lewis was out, it was Caldwell's first game ever calling plays, and that pick-6 really inflated the margin of victory for Denver. Not going to lay in bed with the public here for double digits.
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Still looking good. This is a really good offense when they have things clicking.
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Yep, this isn't the score I envisioned taking the points, but whatever wins the bet. :popcorn:
 
'tjnc09 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'tjnc09 said:
'Clorox said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Not sure about this. Flacco to Boldin looked fantastic last week and Pierce offers another gear to the running game. Baltimore's defense was missing almost everyone for the first meeting, all those dudes are back. Plus IMO Denver is as overrated as Atlanta is underrated, I think the Ravens keep it close. I've convinced myself one of the two AFC games will be close or an upset, this seems like the right one I guess.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I was coming into I say this. If anything Rice the bleak spot in the Colts game and it almost cost his team. I do think the Ravens (still do not buy Flacco) and Texans (think they are soft) are both pretenders, but I also tend I think one game might be closer than expected.
Click to expand...
Colts were the worst DVOA rated defense in the league. Denver's defense is much much better especially at home.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone would argue that Denver isn't the better team on paper, probably by a good margin.
Click to expand...
Would or wouldn't? I just didn't know what Flaccos success at home vs the Colts had to do with his future success on the road vs the broncos :shrug:
Click to expand...
FixedMe and Man in the Box are the only guys on Baltimore, I'm sure you have your reasons for not liking the Ravens.
Click to expand...
I am also taking Baltimore +10 but not because of how they looked vs. Indy. That was my point. +10 is a big number especially with the grim weather report. Peyton hasn't had a lot of success in the playoffs in the cold (though this is a home game) and the last time they played Ray Lewis was out, it was Caldwell's first game ever calling plays, and that pick-6 really inflated the margin of victory for Denver. Not going to lay in bed with the public here for double digits.
Click to expand...
Still looking good. This is a really good offense when they have things clicking.
Click to expand...
Yep, this isn't the score I envisioned taking the points, but whatever wins the bet. :popcorn:
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:hifive: I had the over and didn't think there would be this many points.

Any late hoops tonight gb?

 
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