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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

Hit prett big on SF last night. Thank you.Teased Seattle +10 and Houston +16.5 with the totals Over 38.5 and 42. Pays 2:1. After yesterday, who the hell knows.

 
Seton Hall -5 1/2Hall has owned this series winning 5 in a row and 6 of last 7, only once has PC kept it within 6 points.106-100-4 -3 units

 
'Clorox said:
I had a sweet 102 degree fever yesterday. Slept the entire day and missed the games completely. :XSo can anyone give me a cliff notes version of what I missed in this thread yesterday? And which of you jinxes played the Broncos?
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A few people won on Bal including DD and Bender (apologies to those I forget) Frosty was 2 for 3 in hoops. A few of us hit ever over every which way and all of us were critical of Denver in general. And oh yea.. we all agree that the NBA still blows. Feel better. Had the same crap a few days ago. All I did was sleep as well.
 
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'Angry Beavers said:
'John Bender said:
Rickj is still on fire BTW
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Thanks for the heads up. Is he usually streaky like this?
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He can be so you'll want to practice good money management.I think a week or so back when I posted in here that "now is probably a good time to tail him" he's something like 12-2 in all plays
 
'John Bender said:
'Angry Beavers said:
'John Bender said:
Rickj is still on fire BTW
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Thanks for the heads up. Is he usually streaky like this?
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He can be so you'll want to practice good money management.I think a week or so back when I posted in here that "now is probably a good time to tail him" he's something like 12-2 in all plays
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He had been worse than mediocre up to that point. A year or two ago he had a pretty good hot streak as well.
 
Absolutely no clue how this stacks up against the rest of the league, but was looking at the Pats scoring by quarter and saw some interesting things:

1Q

Pats scored 7.1 pts/g (+2.9)

Pats allowed 4.2 pts/g

2Q

Pats scored 11.1 pts/g (+6.0)

Pats allowed 5.1 pts/g

Q3

Pats scored 6.4 pts/g (+2.2)

Pats allowed 4.2 pts/g

Q4

Pats scored 10.1 pts/g (+3.3)

Pats allowed 6.8 pts/g

So my take on this is that the Patriots are winning games in the 2nd quarter. If you think they'll pull this one out, then the 1H -6.5 might be your best bet. Looked at home/away splits and they are +7.25 pts/g 1H at home

Scoring in general is up @ Foxboro vs their away games (Pats +2.0, opponents +2.6) with most of that scoring bump coming in the 2nd half (Pats 2H @ home +2.4 vs av, opponents 2H +2.1). At home 1H av total = 25.75, 2H av total = 30.75

I probably wouldn't touch the 1H total of 24.5, because you don't know how "playoff jitters" might impact things. If anything, I might do a 0.5u parlay on NE-6.5/u24.5

 
since I'm a degenerate I HAVE to keep betting on Seattle. Over the past 3~4 weeks they have allowed me to lose money on Denver and GB last night. Seattle +3 for 1u Seattle +125 and O46 1u to win 3.3u

 
Bender - or any FBGs near Philly... can you get me tickets for Pens-Flyers this Saturday??? Didn't know if any of you knew someone. PM me the asking price and we will take care of it, just need 2. TIA!

 
'bryan11joseph said:
Bender - or any FBGs near Philly... can you get me tickets for Pens-Flyers this Saturday??? Didn't know if any of you knew someone. PM me the asking price and we will take care of it, just need 2. TIA!
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Can you find them on stubhub? I don't have connections down here. Do you know if they have luxury suites at Flyers games? I want to take some clients to a game.
 
'John Bender said:
'bryan11joseph said:
Bender - or any FBGs near Philly... can you get me tickets for Pens-Flyers this Saturday??? Didn't know if any of you knew someone. PM me the asking price and we will take care of it, just need 2. TIA!
Click to expand...
Can you find them on stubhub? I don't have connections down here. Do you know if they have luxury suites at Flyers games? I want to take some clients to a game.
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Been browsing CL. I have seen tickets from $150/each all the way up to $300/each.I will check Stubhub. Just hate to pay the fees if I don't have to.Will be in town next weekend, where's the best place to stay? I have looked at a few hotels... but a few places look shady and the reviews have not been that great.
 
'bryan11joseph said:
'John Bender said:
'bryan11joseph said:
Bender - or any FBGs near Philly... can you get me tickets for Pens-Flyers this Saturday??? Didn't know if any of you knew someone. PM me the asking price and we will take care of it, just need 2. TIA!
Click to expand...
Can you find them on stubhub? I don't have connections down here. Do you know if they have luxury suites at Flyers games? I want to take some clients to a game.
Click to expand...
Been browsing CL. I have seen tickets from $150/each all the way up to $300/each.I will check Stubhub. Just hate to pay the fees if I don't have to.Will be in town next weekend, where's the best place to stay? I have looked at a few hotels... but a few places look shady and the reviews have not been that great.
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Depends. If you want a good deal,stay at the Hotels in Essington. They are 1 exit from the airport and extremely convenient to get to the arena. You won't be in the city though which could be bad if you want to sight see as well
 
'John Bender said:
'bryan11joseph said:
Bender - or any FBGs near Philly... can you get me tickets for Pens-Flyers this Saturday??? Didn't know if any of you knew someone. PM me the asking price and we will take care of it, just need 2. TIA!
Click to expand...
Can you find them on stubhub? I don't have connections down here. Do you know if they have luxury suites at Flyers games? I want to take some clients to a game.
Click to expand...
There are 10 tickets up on Stubhub for Balcony Suite 3 - $175 each + Stubhub fees. I am looking to get 4. You in??? :banned:
 
Just so its known now, either the Ravens or 9ers will lose next week. Holder of all Harbaugh superbowl futures bet (had same bet last yr). Also have Ravens winning it all :bag: .

 
Sea/Atl over 23.5 1H - The total is going up. I expect both offenses to come out firing on all cylinders. No opinion on the game. May look in Live betting. SEA better have their body clocks set, I expect ATL to get downfield on those big corners and I can see Lynch and a mobile WIlson giving ATL fits. NCAAB:Ohio State -1.5. When the alleged #15 team is giving points to the alleged #2 team in the country, something seems amiss. This is down from the -2 earlier. Both for one unitGLTAAB

 
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Here's my rudimentary analysis of HOU:

1Q

Texans points scored 6.8 (+2.9)

Texans points allowed 3.9

2Q

Texans points scored 8.3 (+2.9)

Texans points allowed 5.4

3Q

Texans points scored 6.3 (+1.0)

Texans points allowed 5.3

4Q

Texans points scored 5.1 (+0.3)

Texans points allowed 4.8

So, the Texans sure seem like a first half team by these numbers.

Comparing against the Pats, here's what you get:

Pats 1H average points scored = 17.1, Texans 1H average points allowed = 8.8

Texans 1H average points scored = 14.2, Pats 1H average points allowed = 8.7

Still gotta give the 1H edge to the Pats, but it's looking more like 3 pts instead of the 6.5 pt line.

Pats 2H average points scored = 15.5, Texans 2H average points allowed = 9.5

Texans 2H average points scored = 10.6, Pats 2H average points allowed = 10.8

Another edge to the Pats here, again by a little over a field goal

Looking at the data for NE at home and HOU away...

Pats 1H_home pts scored = 16.5, Texans 1H_away pts allowed = 10.0

Texans 1H_away pts scored = 13.3, Pats 1H_home pts allowed = 9.3

Looks like Pats hone/Texans away in 1H both the Pats and Texans score less and give up more points vs their averages :shrug:

Averaging points scored and points allowed gives you 24.6...the 1H total is 24.5

Pats 2H_home pts scored = 17.9, Texans 2H_away pts allowed = 10.8

Texans 2H_away pts scored = 9.1, Pats 2H_home pts allowed = 12.9

Another data point that might suggest Pats are the play for the 2nd half

Ok, number overload tl;dl

Here's what I like based on whatever those numbers might tell us:

HOU 1H +6.5

1H u24.5

Pats 2H at -6.5 or lower

2H o24.5

2H guesses subject to changed based in actual game

 
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'gussy said:
Seton Hall -5 1/2Hall has owned this series winning 5 in a row and 6 of last 7, only once has PC kept it within 6 points.106-100-4 -3 units
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Added Fairfield -6 1/2Miami, Fla. -6 1/2Arizona St. +9Nebraska/Michigan St. under 118Classic letdown spot in the Arizona St. game, Ducks coming off the big win over the previously undefeated Arizona Wildcats. Miami has really picked it up since struggling against Indiana St. and Arizona in the holiday tournament immediately following losing Reggie Johnson and Maryland's record had been built against a soft schedule. Nebraska lost one of it's two primary scoring threats (if you can call them that) in PF Brandon Ubel. They'll have very little presence inside today and the plan is to fire up a ton of three pointers. Their primary three point threat is Ray Gallegos and ever since Creighton showed the game plan on how to shut him down a few weeks ago, he's struggled. He doesn't work hard to get open on the offensive side and the Huskers aren't very good at getting him screen and rub looks. Ubel probably worked harder than anyone else at getting Ray screens. Huskers will look to slow it down and take a ton of three's at the end of the shot clock. Tim Miles jokingly said he was going to ask the NCAA for a 60 second shot clock. Only way this goes over is if NU get's hot behind the line. I actually like NU +18 a little here just because I can't see MSU beating them by that big a number in a limited possession type game.I'm also leaning Michigan today. Not playing, too afraid of the road B1G play, but I think the only teams that beat Michigan are Indiana and Minnesota at home.
 
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Pinny just opened sf -1 at atl next week.....I'll be making a large bet on sf at anything under 3....prob my largest bet of the nfl season

 
'lumpy19 said:
Pinny just opened sf -1 at atl next week.....I'll be making a large bet on sf at anything under 3....prob my largest bet of the nfl season
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I had to take one on the chin yesterday before I believed in CK. I am a true believer and would also be on 49ers at anything under 3.
 
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