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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

NHLSabres -125 to win one unitSharks -125 to win one unitNFLFalcons +3 (-120) to win one half unitJoe Flacco over 21 1/2 completions (-115) to win one half unitPatriots/Ravens over 51 1/2 to win one half unitCBBS. Illinois +1 1/2 (-105)117-119-5 -11.6 units

 
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1u ATL +10.5, ATL/SF u55, NE -1.5, NE/BAL o462u NE -1.5, o45.52u NE -7 (bought 0.5)0.5u NE/ATL 1Q o101u NE 1Q -0.52u ATL +10.5, NE -2

 
Interesting homework there, Guster, thanks for the effort.Can't remember the last time I teased a total, however. I rarely, if ever, do that, and especially not one that high. Been seeing a lot more people in here teasing totals...not sure why. Maybe because there've been less sides to choose from, but that shouldn't be a deciding factor.

 
Interesting homework there, Guster, thanks for the effort.Can't remember the last time I teased a total, however. I rarely, if ever, do that, and especially not one that high. Been seeing a lot more people in here teasing totals...not sure why. Maybe because there've been less sides to choose from, but that shouldn't be a deciding factor.
Yeah, totals are certainly more variable than game lines and completely subject to random events in the game.ETA - I do it for the payout... Gotta lump something together with the team I'm teasing down
 
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Yesterday's Hoops:Leans 3-2, Bets 2-1 (Hit on Georgia and Marquette, while Auburn flat out failed to come out of the locker room for the 2nd 1/2 vs Kentucky). You gotta be kiddin' me...however, that should set up a nice situation playing against Kentucky this week, we'll see.Ruds, thanks for the NHL Salami play...Today's NFL:1u Falcons ML +1802u Falcons +43u 7-point Teaser Falcons +11/Patriots -1Good Luck!

 
Huge huge pats homer / Boston native here. Put me In the "bal keeps it close" camp. Look at the numbers historically.... Look at Brady's passer rating vs bal. I wish I was comfy that NE was going to walk... And they very well might as they are by far the superior team on paper even sans gronk.... But I'm just skeptical. My play is tease BAL up to two TD dogs IMO.

 
Saw these from jeffkeim- used to be oskeim at Statfox and is now a tout. His twitter is @oskeimsports and he has interesting information every now and then:Road playoff teams that scored 35+ the week before are 3-20 ATS.In the championship round, road teams allowing 24+ in previous contest are 0-7 ats and road teams scoring 35+ in previous contest are 2-10 ats.Happy to see this from the ATL perspective but not so much from Balt. If you think about it though Baltimore gave up 14 of those points on special teams and scored 7 on defense. Just food for thought.Already on atl +3.5 and +4.5 and balt + 10 and both overs teased down.GLTAAB

 
My immigrant girlfriend explained the Smurfs to me in bed this morning and said that Gargamel’s evil ways are just a byproduct of peer pressure applied by the man that lives in the castle.BALTIMORE RAVENS +10 -120360/300

 
'Aaron Rudnicki said:
Sabres should be safe chalk tomorrow and at a good price. Also will be on the Oilers for sure.
:no: Flyers won't go 0-2. i get the whole 2 games in a row deal, but Flyers looked good, should win this one
 
Saw these from jeffkeim- used to be oskeim at Statfox and is now a tout. His twitter is @oskeimsports and he has interesting information every now and then:Road playoff teams that scored 35+ the week before are 3-20 ATS.In the championship round, road teams allowing 24+ in previous contest are 0-7 ats and road teams scoring 35+ in previous contest are 2-10 ats.Happy to see this from the ATL perspective but not so much from Balt. If you think about it though Baltimore gave up 14 of those points on special teams and scored 7 on defense. Just food for thought.Already on atl +3.5 and +4.5 and balt + 10 and both overs teased down.GLTAAB
I always struggle with historical stats. Players and coaches and situations change so much over time. That's part of the reason why when I look into lines in detail, I usually look at the recent season and scenarios within thatI know it ends up limiting me from a sample size standpoint, but I look at historical stats a bit like coin flips or red/black in roulette. Past history isn't necessarily indicative of future results :shrug:
 
Is there an official FFAWT weatherman in Boston or Foxboro who can give us the skinny on the wind situation?
This report from the great, bostonfred, should be all you need:"It is pretty windy out. Gusts, mostly. Not consistent by any means. But there's a good opportunity for some interceptions in this game. Hopefully more of a problem for flacco and the deep ball than brady.

I was thinking the smart money was on the ravens and the points, but with the wind i think the smart move is to lay off."

 
Huge huge pats homer / Boston native here. Put me In the "bal keeps it close" camp. Look at the numbers historically.... Look at Brady's passer rating vs bal. I wish I was comfy that NE was going to walk... And they very well might as they are by far the superior team on paper even sans gronk.... But I'm just skeptical. My play is tease BAL up to two TD dogs IMO.
The only way I see a blowout by the Pats is if they get up big early and force the Ravens to give up the run - like what happened in the Texans game. The Ravens don't want to get into a shootout with the Pats and will do everything they can to run the ball as much as possible.
 
'Aaron Rudnicki said:
Sabres should be safe chalk tomorrow and at a good price.

Also will be on the Oilers for sure.
:no: Flyers won't go 0-2. i get the whole 2 games in a row deal, but Flyers looked good, should win this one
:popcorn: I smell a side bet. Winner gets an official MODOGG SJU HOF RGBY JRSY!
I THINK THEY SHOULD DO A SIG BET !!11eleven1!
:lmao: I see Mo lurking and Rude has to be nearby. Let's do it fellas!!!!!!!!

 
Saw these from jeffkeim- used to be oskeim at Statfox and is now a tout. His twitter is @oskeimsports and he has interesting information every now and then:Road playoff teams that scored 35+ the week before are 3-20 ATS.In the championship round, road teams allowing 24+ in previous contest are 0-7 ats and road teams scoring 35+ in previous contest are 2-10 ats.Happy to see this from the ATL perspective but not so much from Balt. If you think about it though Baltimore gave up 14 of those points on special teams and scored 7 on defense. Just food for thought.Already on atl +3.5 and +4.5 and balt + 10 and both overs teased down.GLTAAB
I always struggle with historical stats. Players and coaches and situations change so much over time. That's part of the reason why when I look into lines in detail, I usually look at the recent season and scenarios within thatI know it ends up limiting me from a sample size standpoint, but I look at historical stats a bit like coin flips or red/black in roulette. Past history isn't necessarily indicative of future results :shrug:
Both theories factor in this weekend. NE/BAL have the recent history with same coaches and impact players, that's why I like that game better. I'd rather tail Flacco than Kap as a road playoff favorite.
 
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'Raider Nation said:
Also, DD is leaving incoherent messages on my profile wall at 2am. I think he may be :banned:
I was doing my parents taxes and was thinking back to when I used to go to the corner store for them and get them cigarettes, they always left some over for a Chunky bar. Water heater is leaking today, should be a fun and prosperous day over here. :rolleyes:
 
'loser said:
Locking in: Pats -10 (+140)Pats score at will, too many mismatches, with or without Gronk. We love Ray (?), but he's done. Hernandez and the backs kill it. Flacco can't keep up. 35-13.
I like this much more than -7.5. Chances are if they are going to win at -7.5 they are going to win by 2+ TDs.
 
Is there an official FFAWT weatherman in Boston or Foxboro who can give us the skinny on the wind situation?
I live about an hour north of Foxboro and it was windy earlier, but it is picking up now. Getting pretty gusty, nothing too crazy, but there are gusts here and there that I think would have an effect of the ball in the air. I got my smoker fired up and wind is blowing the smoke over the place, constantly changing directions. Starting to become overcast too, although I don't think it is supposed to rain or anything. Bottom line, it is gusty, but I don't see it having a big impact on the game.
 
Gonna go ahead and take Jeremy Chardy +150 over Andrea Seppi.GLTA
In before I'm too hammered to remember later. Also took big dog Raonic over Fedentist. The guy's rollin, hasn't lost a set since his first one of the tourney. And with that kind of serve he can be a nightmare when it's on. Court playing fast they say, even better. If the Joker can get pushed to the brink - especially with how tough he'd looked - then so can Rog. Good value, imo, hth, tia.
 
I haven't a clue today. I wouldn't be shocked by any of the 4 teams winning outright/covering. I played some BAL +9 and ATL +11/BAL +15 teaser earlier in the week, and put a little on SF ML/ BAL ML parlay at 5/1. Good work by Guster breaking things down. Definitely some interesting food for thought.

 
BRONGER!And I'll just go ahead and say it for Dr. Detroit:

BRWONGTM
And a FrostyFive to you, kind sir, on this glorious day. :hifive: I. AM. EXCITED. :excited:
:bow: Good day to you! What a great fricken day - Sabres/Flyers now, SF/ATL in 2 hours, NE/BAL later, Pens/Rangers as well. Pretty glad that I wasted the whole morning because I know the rest of the day will be highly productive!!!! :banned:
 
Is there an official FFAWT weatherman in Boston or Foxboro who can give us the skinny on the wind situation?
I live about an hour north of Foxboro and it was windy earlier, but it is picking up now. Getting pretty gusty, nothing too crazy, but there are gusts here and there that I think would have an effect of the ball in the air. I got my smoker fired up and wind is blowing the smoke over the place, constantly changing directions. Starting to become overcast too, although I don't think it is supposed to rain or anything. Bottom line, it is gusty, but I don't see it having a big impact on the game.
Thanks man. Way to paint the picture there. Keep us in the know, we degenerates appreciate the inside info.Let me guess, you are smoking a pork butt with an ETA of right around gametime?
 
Shouldn't the winds/gusts die down some in the evening? That's usually the case, no? I ask because I might put 5 million on the over and I see it dropped to 51. I have to think that rises before kick when all the drunks and chasers hit it and hope, just like last week.

 
RB hanging u48.5 for game 1 and u51.5 for game 2....hope everyone is betting those. In addition to being a point better than the market they're both giving key numbers....really good bets

 
Shouldn't the winds/gusts die down some in the evening? That's usually the case, no? I ask because I might put 5 million on the over and I see it dropped to 51. I have to think that rises before kick when all the drunks and chasers hit it and hope, just like last week.
According to local news, its supposed to be windy throughout the afternoon and into the game.
 
NHLSabres -125 to win one unitSharks -125 to win one unitNFLFalcons +3 (-120)first half to win one half unitJoe Flacco over 21 1/2 completions (-115) to win one half unitPatriots/Ravens over 51 1/2 to win one half unitCBBS. Illinois +1 1/2 (-105)117-119-5 -11.6 units
Added:Ravens +6 (-120) first half to win one half unitandClemson +9 (-115)
 
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Gonna go ahead and take Jeremy Chardy +150 over Andreas Seppi.GLTA
FYI not sure how serious, but in Chardy's double match last night he had to have a trainer look at his knee.Two questions for you.Found this bet - looks good I think for Raonic to win a set?Milos Raonic +2½ sets +100I bet Novak to win tourney at -110 yesterday. How the hell is it now at +100 1 match later?
 
I was looking at taking the San Fran wr's under yards on first reception, thinking they open up conservative. Crabbytree under 11.5, Davis under 9.5, and Walker under 9.5. Stupid bets?

 
I have small plays on the TE props.Falcons let Zach Miller run wild on them last week so I'm on over bets for Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker.49ers defend the TE better than any team in the league so I'm on under bets for Tony Gonzalez.

 
Fun fact: in the playoff week following teams who scored 40 or more points the previous game, they are 3-26 ATS.Water heater is dead, need to win a BRONG-sized wager to cover that. :kicksrock:

 

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