FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

[mquinnjr]

You guys rule. All those clothes are getting donated, end of story.

Bases tonigh, 1U plays:

Marlins +195 (Fernandez) vs. Mets (Harvey). This is a total value play. Two bad teams, two stud young pitchers. I'll take the value here on a virtual coin flip, I think this line should be closer to +140/-160.

Reds +107 (Leake) vs. Cards (Wainwright). I really like this play. Two good teams, two good pitchers. hard to pass on the +EV number for the home team here. Leake's been solid in his last few starts, I'm on this one.

Astros +225 (Lyles) vs. KC (Shields). Yep, the trendy dog play. Hear me out. Last 3 outings, Lyles has been great, and Sheilds last 2 of 3 have been awful. At the price and the way they are playing, I'll take the shot even though it's the Astros.

 

[tjnc09]

Pirates u3.5 1/2 unit.

 

[tjnc09]

Marlins Mets PPD along with Twins Nats and Angels Red Sox

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Reds/Cards U8 +100

Phillies/White Sox ML parlay +215

Tailing Loser +107 on Cubs, sounds good to me.

 

[mquinnjr]

Marlins Mets PPD along with Twins Nats and Angels Red Sox

Thought that was going to be a good play. Oh well.

 

[ChainsawU]

Wainwright at Great American

Year W L W-L%  ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB2006 0      0 3.00 2  0  1  0   0  0  3.0  4  1  1  1  1   0  3   0     0  13 1.667  9.0  3.002007 0 1 .000 9.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  5.0  5  5  5  1  4   0  3   0     0  24 1.800  5.4  0.752009 0      0 6.00 1  1  0  0   0  0  6.0  7  4  4  2  1   0  3   0     0  26 1.333  4.5  3.002010 2 1 .667 2.70 3  3  0  0   0  0 20.0 12  6  6  2  5   1 16   0     0  77 0.850  7.2  3.202012 1 1 .500 4.50 2  2  0  0   0  0 12.0 11  6  6  1  2   1  6   1     0  48 1.083  4.5  3.00Tot  3 3 .500 4.30 9  7  1  0   0  0 46.0 39 22 22  7 13   2 31   1     0 188 1.130  6.1  2.38

 

[Plorfu]

Heat are a+ number to win the series now. Worth a shot?

 

[ChainsawU]

Don’t believe any trends that you see without checking them yourself. Oddsshark lists within their Cincinnati Reds Trends: After a loss are 8-2 which is misleading. On the season they are 14-9 after a loss. But they had not lost two in a row at home until yesterday.

 

[ChainsawU]

Wainwright Away

K/9  BB/9  K/BB HR/9    K%  BB%  AVG  WHIP BABIP  LOB%  ERA  FIP  xFIP7.53 0.37 20.50 0.37 20.5% 1.0% .303  1.24  .375 75.2% 3.12 2.23  2.84

 

[tjnc09]

Spurs -125

Heat +105

Series price.

I will buy some Heat to hedge, but doubt a lot.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Heat are a+ number to win the series now. Worth a shot?

Yeah, I'm thinking about adding more to my original bet.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

MIAMI HEAT -110 at Sportsbook to win the NBA Championship...



What am I missing here? I expected them to be about -240. Nobody is beating that team.

I'm loading up500/452

Go Heat

Now at -140. Still can't believe it's THAT low.I'll walk naked from here to Miami if someone beats them 4 out of 7 games.

560/400

In 250/250 (+100 at greek)

Have y'all checked the line on this lately?

Yup - I looked this AM. -200

Got some value here, now they have to deliver.

Funny, we could have all waited until today and got a better line. :hindsight:

 

[ChainsawU]

Wainwright is on 5 days rest and coming off a complete game (106 pitches)

Split  W  L  W-L% ERA  G GS GF CG SHO SV    IP   H   R  ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP BK WP   BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB4 Day 52 24 .684 2.95 97 97  0  8   3  0 653.2 618 237 214 44 169   6 561  17  1 22 2702 1.204  7.7  3.325 Day 25 20 .556 3.41 49 49  0  5   2  0 319.2 302 133 121 21  86   5 272   9  1  5 1334 1.214  7.7  3.166+Day  9  6 .600 2.82 17 17  0  1   1  0 111.2  96  38  35  9  29   1  87   2  0  0  446 1.119  7.0  3.00

 

[tjnc09]

The series price is odd. Heat started as a 2-1 dog and now are a slight favorite yet the Heat are -275 to win game 2. It seems like the books are almost trying to sucker people into the Spurs series price. Heat will have to be a decent favorite again to win the series if they tie it 1-1.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I added another hundy on the Bron Brons

 

[Plorfu]

Alfonso Soriano just dramatically admired his homer until it was caught as a routine fly ball at the warning track.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

All I know is that the NBA Finals is rarely a surprise. The 2004 Pistons were a huge surprise but I can't think of too many other recent examples. Maybe Dallas over Miami two years ago? Heat were dogs last year but them winning wasn't a surprise IMO. Seems to me the Heat have just played with their opposition in these playoffs and although the 2-3-2 format adds to the threat, to me the Heat put the peddle to the metal when they have to just like great NBA teams have done for decades. Could be wrong but I say Heat wins this in six.

 

[John Bender]

I'm already in at 550/500 on Heat to win the finals.

I wish it were a better buy to add another 500, but -105 doesn't do much for me.

 

[The Ref]

MIAMI HEAT -110 at Sportsbook to win the NBA Championship...



What am I missing here? I expected them to be about -240. Nobody is beating that team.

I'm loading up500/452

Go Heat

Now at -140. Still can't believe it's THAT low.I'll walk naked from here to Miami if someone beats them 4 out of 7 games.

560/400

In 250/250 (+100 at greek)

Have y'all checked the line on this lately?

Yup - I looked this AM. -200

Got some value here, now they have to deliver.

Funny, we could have all waited until today and got a better line. :hindsight:

Well you say that, but if the heat won last night they would be at -400 today. We all got them cheaper then the opening price and thats all you can ask for.Edit: I'm getting ready for the Raider Dave walk to Miami.

 

[loser]

Pirates u3.5 1/2 unit.

Good call. Should have gone this route.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Well you say that, but if the heat won last night they would be at -400 today. We all got them cheaper then the opening price and thats all you can ask for.Edit: I'm getting ready for the Raider Dave walk to Miami.

Well yeah, but he Heat always seem to lose at home so I almost expected it. Still a good bet then, and a good bet now IMO.

 

[tjnc09]

All I know is that the NBA Finals is rarely a surprise. The 2004 Pistons were a huge surprise but I can't think of too many other recent examples. Maybe Dallas over Miami two years ago? Heat were dogs last year but them winning wasn't a surprise IMO. Seems to me the Heat have just played with their opposition in these playoffs and although the 2-3-2 format adds to the threat, to me the Heat put the peddle to the metal when they have to just like great NBA teams have done for decades. Could be wrong but I say Heat wins this in six.

The Bucks, Bulls, and Pacers are struggled to score at several times. The Spurs move the ball better than any team in the league. Teams who play solid defense, move the ball and shoot the three won't be that much of a dog in any game even when Miami plays like they did game 7 vs Indiana.Miami thrived on fast break points and the Spurs A) don't turn the ball over like those other eastern teams and B) often times they forgave the offensive rebound opportunity to get back in transition. Again, the series price seems fishy now, but the Spurs have four rings - it shouldn't be that much of a surprise if they get a fifth this year.

 

[Plorfu]

After a hiatus where I swore I would not bet until football season, I have:

Tribe/Tigers u8 (-105)

A's/Honky Sox (-125)

 

[derek245583]

Argentina is going to beat Columbia imo. -125

Will lay the goal too at +145 or something

 

[Plorfu]

Yanks/Phils ML parlay +150 or so.

I'll tail on Argentina because I took today off, have been drinking, and I like yelling at TV screens.

 

[modogg]

All I know is that the NBA Finals is rarely a surprise. The 2004 Pistons were a huge surprise but I can't think of too many other recent examples. Maybe Dallas over Miami two years ago? Heat were dogs last year but them winning wasn't a surprise IMO. Seems to me the Heat have just played with their opposition in these playoffs and although the 2-3-2 format adds to the threat, to me the Heat put the peddle to the metal when they have to just like great NBA teams have done for decades. Could be wrong but I say Heat wins this in six.

The Bucks, Bulls, and Pacers are struggled to score at several times. The Spurs move the ball better than any team in the league. Teams who play solid defense, move the ball and shoot the three won't be that much of a dog in any game even when Miami plays like they did game 7 vs Indiana.Miami thrived on fast break points and the Spurs A) don't turn the ball over like those other eastern teams and B) often times they forgave the offensive rebound opportunity to get back in transition.Again, the series price seems fishy now, but the Spurs have four rings - it shouldn't be that much of a surprise if they get a fifth this year.

Heat were leading most of that game, Spurs just hit their shots in the 4th. I don't know if anybody will be blown out in this series, but i still feel alright with money on the Heat. And like DD said, NBA is always shady, I think there is good reason why the Heat are -275 to win game 2.

 

[Angry Beavers]

I am on the following:

Reds +108

Philly -142

Dodgers -110

GLTA

AB

 

[loser]

Jays -105

Reds +118

 

[tjnc09]

Rangers Blue Jays u9.5

 

[Doctor Detroit]

All I know is that the NBA Finals is rarely a surprise. The 2004 Pistons were a huge surprise but I can't think of too many other recent examples. Maybe Dallas over Miami two years ago? Heat were dogs last year but them winning wasn't a surprise IMO. Seems to me the Heat have just played with their opposition in these playoffs and although the 2-3-2 format adds to the threat, to me the Heat put the peddle to the metal when they have to just like great NBA teams have done for decades. Could be wrong but I say Heat wins this in six.

The Bucks, Bulls, and Pacers are struggled to score at several times. The Spurs move the ball better than any team in the league. Teams who play solid defense, move the ball and shoot the three won't be that much of a dog in any game even when Miami plays like they did game 7 vs Indiana.Miami thrived on fast break points and the Spurs A) don't turn the ball over like those other eastern teams and B) often times they forgave the offensive rebound opportunity to get back in transition.Again, the series price seems fishy now, but the Spurs have four rings - it shouldn't be that much of a surprise if they get a fifth this year.

You could be right dude, I don't even follow hoops. Teams like Miami are always in question though and they always seem to answer that question in the end. We'll see, hopefully it's a long series and you might even get me to watch a game!!!

 

[derek245583]

welp, that argentina game hurt

 

[bryan11joseph]

If tonight continues, it will end with every MLB favorite winning... How do we play tomorrow after knowing this?

 

[loser]

If tonight continues, it will end with every MLB favorite winning... How do we play tomorrow after knowing this?

For me personally? Poorly.

 

[tjnc09]

If tonight continues, it will end with every MLB favorite winning... How do we play tomorrow after knowing this?

With amnesia

 

[bryan11joseph]

What ponies do you like for the Belmont Stakes tomorrow?

I like:

Oxbow* +555

Unlimited Budget* +750

Orb +235

Freedom Child +800

Revolutionary +475

Overanalyze +1200

(Oxbow / Revolutionary / Palice Malice)

Trying to narrow it down or figure out a way to bet all 6 to win. Then take my 3 trifecta.

 

[modogg]

i need to make some money back because the Penguins blow, so got this so far for UFC tomorrow:

Alcantra -170

Castro +180

Hirota +130

Vemola -130

 

[Raider Nation]

Heard it on satellite radio today. Used to love this song, but I haven't even thought about it in years.

I know Doc and JB used to break dance to this!

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Run DMC, Beastie Boys, Chubb Rock, Ghetto Boys, etc. I was one of the few white dudes in there but everyone was spitting lyrics so I did the same. Got several black guy head nods, I know my lyrics.

Terrible betting day, I was really wrong on everything. Oh well, good day outside of that.

 

[Raider Nation]

Wait... you're white???

I am down to only one black friend now.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Sort of. My main people are from the Cape Verde islands, google images for that and you'll see what I mean.Feel most at home with black folk though, never get any static about how I might not belong. Don't really understand it, they just know something about me. The women love me, two younger chicks told me they never had a white guy tonight for no reason at all. I wish I could harness just a a fraction of that energy with Hispanic chicks, they just hate me for no reason at all.

 

[Raider Nation]

Don't need to Google it at all. One of my best buds Ronny is Cape Verdean.Good lookin people.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

NY Rangers +850 to win Lord Stanley's Cup

Add Bruins +1300

 

[Raider Nation]

My other black friend is as black as it gets. He moved here by himself from Nigeria when he was 22, speaking very little English. I met him at the gym and he became my workout partner. Dude is JACKED. He put himself through college and is now a bartender/phlebotomist/physician's assistant. Guy is my hero.

He's the blacker, younger, harder-working, healthier, motivated, more well-endowed version of myself.

 

[Raider Nation]

NY Rangers +850 to win Lord Stanley's Cup

Add Bruins +1300

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I like Africans, they tend to report crimes.

 

[Billy Bats]

Liking a Red Sox/Red Sox parlay, -140 both games.

eta: Jesus did u guys hammer them after I posted?! . up to -165/-155 real quick.

 

[Billy Bats]

Add Texas.

 

[loser]

Angels (game 1) +145

White Sox +116

Brewers -120

GL

 

[ChainsawU]

I'm not really into horse racing but I just bet a quinella of Underwhelmo and You Call That A Penis for $100.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Giants +103

Twins +165