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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (12 Viewers)

ChainsawU said:
Since 1990, teams playing on 3 days rest after playing on 5 days rest the previous game are 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS with an average line of -1.6. The total is 5-5-0 with an average total of 42.0. link
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I wonder how much difference it makes that KC literally has only one extra day of rest. While Philly plays 3 games in 11 days, KC plays 3 games in 12 days. :shrug:

 
Since 1989, the Steelers are 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS as underdogs at Cincinnati. They have won their last 3 games SU as underdogs at Cincinnati, with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime. The Steelers have been shutout in the 1st quarter in 4 of those 5 games, getting outscored 23-3. link

 
Angry Beavers said:
ChainsawU said:
Since 1990, teams playing on 3 days rest after playing on 5 days rest the previous game are 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS with an average line of -1.6. The total is 5-5-0 with an average total of 42.0. link
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I wonder how much difference it makes that KC literally has only one extra day of rest. While Philly plays 3 games in 11 days, KC plays 3 games in 12 days. :shrug:
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Most of that (deleted post) query I did is duplicate entries so it is not good data. I still think the Chiefs are good ATS. Check this out also..

Teams in the Chiefs' situation you described above are:

5-4 SU

6-3 ATS

link

obligatory> :shrug:

 
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ChainsawU said:
Since 1989, the Steelers are 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS as underdogs at Cincinnati. They have won their last 3 games SU as underdogs at Cincinnati, with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime. The Steelers have been shutout in the 1st quarter in 4 of those 5 games, getting outscored 23-3. link
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Chain, big fan, but this stuff means nothing unless Bubby Brister and Boomer Esiason are starting tonight.

 
I'm going to take the Bengals 1Q side and the Steelers ATS full game and see how it turns out. I may be wrong, and I hate arbitrary trends as much as the next guy, but the one thing that I see with this being relevant is that these two teams have played each other twice a year, every year, since 1970.

 
Bengals D line >>>>>> Steelers O-Line

I'm still leaning towards laying off aside from the teaser above, but I'd lean Bengals and Under

 
I don't like betting against my team but Lions are only +2 at Washington this week where they are 0-21 lifetime (including playoffs)

Lay the -2 with the Skins if you like free money

 
Using all 4 suicide pool spots I have left on Seattle. I really don't care if everyone else does likewise. The idea is to get to next week, and the Jags CANNOT win.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Plorfu said:
Jags opening up as 20 point dogs at Seattle. :lmao:
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Think I saw its 5th highest NFL spread in history or something like that
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I read somewhere that there have been 6 spreads of 20 points or more and only 1 of the 6 covered (Bills in 1991 I think).
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Pats were at least 20-point favorites three times in the second half of their historic 2007 season. They didn't cover any of them.

Philly -24 (W 31-28)

Jets -20 1/2 (W 20-10)

Dolphins -22 (W 28-7)

 
I'm not sure any of those teams were as bad as this JAX outfit. They are missing their starting QB (even though he sucks), their starting TE, their best WR (suspended), their O-line is a mess and MJD will likely not play. I'd be surprised if this were NOT a shutout.

 
Dickie Dunn said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Plorfu said:
Jags opening up as 20 point dogs at Seattle. :lmao:
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Think I saw its 5th highest NFL spread in history or something like that
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I read somewhere that there have been 6 spreads of 20 points or more and only 1 of the 6 covered (Bills in 1991 I think).
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Pats were at least 20-point favorites three times in the second half of their historic 2007 season. They didn't cover any of them.

Philly -24 (W 31-28)

Jets -20 1/2 (W 20-10)

Dolphins -22 (W 28-7)
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I remember that Philly game...think the line opened at 28! :loco:

 
alright Bengals, wtf? If they don't win i'm going to be pretty fired up. 2 survivor picks and the last leg of 4 teasers will go up in smoke

 
ChainsawU said:
I'm going to take the Bengals 1Q side and the Steelers ATS full game and see how it turns out. I may be wrong, and I hate arbitrary trends as much as the next guy, but the one thing that I see with this being relevant is that these two teams have played each other twice a year, every year, since 1970.
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modogg said:
modogg said:
alright Bengals, wtf? If they don't win i'm going to be pretty fired up. 2 survivor picks and the last leg of 4 teasers will go up in smoke
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get it in the 1st Q to help out Chainsaw and those of us who tailed 1st Q Cincy :popcorn:

Nice :suds:
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HOW DID I MISS THIS LEAN????

You'd think subscribers would get personal IMs just in case they skimmed the thread.

Good call you two.

 
Since last year the Bengals were 13-4-1 in the 1st quarter, outscoring their opponents 120-52. Last week was the lone push. That hook was hanging out there pretty heavy!

 
ChainsawU said:
Also, for next time, let's not talk about it so much until we have the cash in hand!
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Seriously, as soon as i typed it i remembered Antonio Bryant's punt return and thought i just screwed this all up with Pitt returning this kick off into Cincy territory . That would have been a kick in the balls

 
Is there any investigation scheduled, mo? One eff up like that and you maybe let it go. Two decisions like that out of her??? She's clearly crooked. How much more do they need to see?

 
Raider Nation said:
Is there any investigation scheduled, mo? One eff up like that and you maybe let it go. Two decisions like that out of her??? She's clearly crooked. How much more do they need to see?
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Id say "going forward" this is going to take care of its self. No way she ever sees a meaningful fight again.

 
The Ref said:
Raider Nation said:
Is there any investigation scheduled, mo? One eff up like that and you maybe let it go. Two decisions like that out of her??? She's clearly crooked. How much more do they need to see?
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Id say "going forward" this is going to take care of its self. No way she ever sees a meaningful fight again.
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Maybe, the only thing i saw was the Nevada State Atheltic Commission defending her, which is just silly. I mean you can check anywhere and I don't think i have seen anybody suggest that the draw score had any kind of accuracy to it. But for some reason, the NSAC thinks it is no big deal:

http://www.mmamania.com/2013/9/16/4737706/nsac-keith-kizer-cj-ross-mob-mentality-draw-mayweather-canelo-boxing

go figure. Athletic Commissions are a great way for old people to still collect money and not really do anything. Worst was the California one for awhile, but there are a lot of other bad one's out there too

ETA: the guy's at badlefthook are usually pretty accurate with this stuff too (http://www.badlefthook.com/2013/9/15/4734082/mayweather-vs-canelo-judge-cj-ross-stands-behind-114-114-score). A guy from fight score collector gathers all of the media and other sources scoring of fights, and it was 86-0 for people having Mayweather win the fight, closest score being a 116-113

 
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got_nugs said:
I don't see any way this could end badly for Cincy -6.5 backers.

:help:
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I just have to stop live betting these games. my teasers are still pretty money, but i was all excited i got -6.5 when it first opened, and then i live bet the crap out of Pitt because i got nervous in the first half. I think i am in best shape if Cincy wins by 7-10. I got quite a bit on Pitt +3.5 4thQ too. I thought that was just a strange line, low scoring game and figuring Pitt is down going into the 4th, why would they set the line like that?

ETA: arggh, i thought that 4thQ play was +3.5, but it was only +3. still a weird line, but not as fun financially as i was hoping

 
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Raider Nation said:
Using all 4 suicide pool spots I have left on Seattle. I really don't care if everyone else does likewise. The idea is to get to next week, and the Jags CANNOT win.
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GA meetings will be packed with new members if the Jags not only cover, but win as dogs there. What would the ML on -19.5 in the NFL be, like -3000?

 
I haven't really looked at anything else for picks beside that Colin Cowhed guy and that is only for ####s and giggles. I just checked Stuckey and he says he went 8-1 in NFL this weekend, can anybody verify that. If so, does it seem like luck with him and the NFL or is there some substance to any of it.

ust wondering mainly because i am in this contest where you pick 5 teams against the spread each week, and i went 1-3-1 the first week, and 2-3 this week. So i need to up my game

ETA: looks like he has Tenn -3 and Atl -1.5 so far this week coming up. I refuse to bet against SD again this week coming up so i think Tenn is out for me. Those Chargers are just garbage, but Rivers and those WRs are just playing like they don't even know they suck

 
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Utah and BYU have been playing games against each other since 1922, and have played every consecutive year since 1946. During the last 20 years, Utah is 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS at home versus BYU, as an average home favorite of 3.8 points. However, when they travel to BYU to play the game, they are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS as an average road dog of 5.1 points.

Since 2005, Bronco Mendenhall's first season as BYU head coach, Utah is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS. They are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS against him at his house, as an average road dog of 6.5 points. link

 
modogg said:
I haven't really looked at anything else for picks beside that Colin Cowhed guy and that is only for ####s and giggles. I just checked Stuckey and he says he went 8-1 in NFL this weekend, can anybody verify that. If so, does it seem like luck with him and the NFL or is there some substance to any of it.

ust wondering mainly because i am in this contest where you pick 5 teams against the spread each week, and i went 1-3-1 the first week, and 2-3 this week. So i need to up my game

ETA: looks like he has Tenn -3 and Atl -1.5 so far this week coming up. I refuse to bet against SD again this week coming up so i think Tenn is out for me. Those Chargers are just garbage, but Rivers and those WRs are just playing like they don't even know they suck
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If the contest is based on opening lines, you might be able to wait until late and find some value on teams where there've been some significant movement.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
modogg said:
I haven't really looked at anything else for picks beside that Colin Cowhed guy and that is only for ####s and giggles. I just checked Stuckey and he says he went 8-1 in NFL this weekend, can anybody verify that. If so, does it seem like luck with him and the NFL or is there some substance to any of it.

ust wondering mainly because i am in this contest where you pick 5 teams against the spread each week, and i went 1-3-1 the first week, and 2-3 this week. So i need to up my game

ETA: looks like he has Tenn -3 and Atl -1.5 so far this week coming up. I refuse to bet against SD again this week coming up so i think Tenn is out for me. Those Chargers are just garbage, but Rivers and those WRs are just playing like they don't even know they suck
Click to expand...
If the contest is based on opening lines, you might be able to wait until late and find some value on teams where there've been some significant movement.
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they base them on the USAToday lines in their Friday paper. Chargers got me twice, and the Eagles got me twice, so if i skip betting those 2 i may be alright. Though i do like KC this week.

 
Raider Nation said:
modogg said:
i am in this contest where you pick 5 teams against the spread each week, and i went 1-3-1 the first week, and 2-3 this week. So i need to up my game
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There is a gold mine here, mo. Just figure out what you really like and then go the other way.
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:bag: seriously. I lost with Phi, Chicago, and Saints this week. Won with Arizona and Cincy. A lot of people have sucked it too, but there are some that have hit pretty well.

 
mquinnjr said:
Raider Nation said:
Using all 4 suicide pool spots I have left on Seattle. I really don't care if everyone else does likewise. The idea is to get to next week, and the Jags CANNOT win.
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GA meetings will be packed with new members if the Jags not only cover, but win as dogs there. What would the ML on -19.5 in the NFL be, like -3000?
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I just bought some Jax plus the 20. Dont feel good about it, but the history is the history when it comes to 20 something spreads.

 
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