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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

I'm on the Jags. These are pros, albeit lousy pros. I don't think any team is 20 points better than any other. Too many things have to go right/wrong to cover 20 points. I'll throw a unit at +19.5. I've made stupider plays.

 
I wouldnt be surprised if the Jags get shut out, assuming the Seahawks bring their A game

Agree that is a huge number though and history tells us to back the dog, but the Jags look awful

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I wouldnt be surprised if the Jags get shut out, assuming the Seahawks bring their A game

Agree that is a huge number though and history tells us to back the dog, but the Jags look awful
Click to expand...
Yeah but by definition, a 20 point spread always indicates that a team is God Awful. yet 1-4 historically.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I wouldnt be surprised if the Jags get shut out, assuming the Seahawks bring their A game

Agree that is a huge number though and history tells us to back the dog, but the Jags look awful
Click to expand...
Just a significant letdown factor here. Though i have not backed the Jags at all yet. Thinking the same for the Tide as well this week. Added factor of ex Saban OC now HC of the Rams. Supposedly scheduled this for him to put some money in the CSU coffers. Take the 40 and run. At the least we should get a pity cover 42-10.

 
lumpy19 said:
The Ref said:
I just punched under 68 for tonight. They get to 10 TD's then my hats off.

Last years game was 20-10, not that any one single game means all that much.
Click to expand...
What if they only get 9 TD's but they also kick 2 FG? You still take your hat off?
Click to expand...
No. If I'm getting beat I want 10 TD's. Or 9 TD's and 3 safeties at the very least.

Total up to 68.5.... I dont see it. I really dont.

Final Score - Fresno 57 - Boise 42

 
Under Harbaugh the 49ers are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS after a loss. The ATS losses were last year: home -8 v SEA and home -16.5 v ARI. link

In those 7 games:

  • The average HT score has been 6-3 in favor of the 49ers.
  • The average FG score has been 23-6 in favor of the 49ers.
  • Both teams have averaged 1.3 points in the 1Q
 
You put that record on and you're basically guaranteeing whichever woman you are with that night that she made the right decision.

 
The Ref said:
Dan Lambskin said:
I wouldnt be surprised if the Jags get shut out, assuming the Seahawks bring their A game

Agree that is a huge number though and history tells us to back the dog, but the Jags look awful
Click to expand...
Yeah but by definition, a 20 point spread always indicates that a team is God Awful. yet 1-4 historically.
Click to expand...
You have to factor in the Seahawks not trying their hardest, knowing they can pretty much show up and win. And with a game against Houston next week, there's always the look ahead factor too. Sandwich game between a major rival and a very good AFC team, and you have the possibility of playing down to the opponent. My god I hope I'm not talking myself into this. :scared:

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Anyone know of books that list soccer 2H lines that are still available at halftime?
Click to expand...
This question has confused me since you posted it. Don't all books list 2h soccer lines at halftime? I don't bet soccer but I know it's a gigantic market so I'd assume everyone opens back up at halftime to take bets

 
Raider Nation said:
Eminence said:
Eminence said:
I didn't get cute, I just took the Chiefs ML +150. Hopefully it hits.
Click to expand...
Yay. :) Thanks Kansas City. I'm probably going to take the winnings and ride the Packers ML against the Bengals. It should be a close game but I think the Packers have this one in the bag.

Still have a few nights to change my mind though. This puts me up $125 on the season on Football bets, which isn't terrible. Hopefully I can keep it rolling and hit a few more picks, if I double up this Sunday I'll probably bank and go back down to $50.
Click to expand...
Just cash out now and buy some stuff at Walgreens. You get an employee discount, yes?
Click to expand...
Yeah, I get a 15% Discount. 20% on all Walgreens Brand products. Certain days I actually get a 25% Discount but that seems to be entirely random.

 
More fun ones from Bovada

Saturday, September 21, 2013 (Times shown in Eastern Daylight Time)
Time
Competitor
Odds
Result

PROP OF THE WEEK - Will the Jaguars score an offensive TD vs. the Seahawks?
10:59p​
Yes
-130
​
No
EVEN
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Tom Brady - Completion % Week 3 vs Tampa Bay
Must start for action.
11:00p​
Over 60%
-115
​
Under 60%
-115
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Eli Manning - Total Interceptions in the 2013 Regular Season
Must start Week 3 for action.
11:00p​
Over
20½
(-115)o​
(-115)u
​
Under
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - How many games will the Broncos score 40 or more points in the 2013 Regular Season?
Already at 2.
11:00p​
Over
5
(EVEN)o​
(-130)u
​
Under
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - How many penalties will the Bucs record vs. the Patriots?
11:00p​
Over
7
(-115)o​
(-115)u
​
Under
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Will the Seahawks lose a home game in the 2013 Regular Season?
11:00p​
Yes
-200
​
No
+150
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - How many 0-2 teams will make the playoffs?
Currently 0-2 are: WAS, NYG, MIN, TB, CAR, CLE, PIT, JAC
11:00p​
Over
1
(+105)o​
(-135)u
​
Under
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - How many 2-0 teams will make the playoffs?
Currently 2-0 are: CHI, NO, SEA, NE, MIA, HOU, DEN, KC
11:00p​
Over
5½
(-115)o​
(-115)u
​
Under
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Will Ron Rivera be fired before Week 17?
11:00p​
Yes
EVEN
​
No
-140
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Will Robert Griffin III be benched during a game that he starts?
Non injury related, must be benched for at least 1 entire offensive series while the Redskins are trailing in the game. Book Manager's decision is final.
11:00p​
Yes
+200
​
No
-300
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Trent Richardson - Total Rushing Yards as a member of the Colts in the 2013 Regular Season?
Must play Week 3 for action.
11:00p​
Over
950½
(-115)o​
(-115)u
​
Under
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Trent Richardson - Total Touchdowns as a member of the Colts in the 2013 Regular Season?
Must play Week 3 for action.
11:00p​
Over
7
(-115)o​
(-115)u
​
Under
​

NFL WEEK 3 SPECIALS - Will Josh Freeman be a member of the Bucs for game 1 of the 2014 Regular Season?
11:00p​
Yes
+150
​
No
-200
​

 
lumpy19 said:
The Ref said:
I just punched under 68 for tonight. They get to 10 TD's then my hats off.

Last years game was 20-10, not that any one single game means all that much.
Click to expand...
What if they only get 9 TD's but they also kick 2 FG? You still take your hat off?
Click to expand...
Wow - now 3 safeties wont cut it either. 69.5.... wow. Normally Id double down but apparently I'm way off on how this game will play out.

 
lumpy19 said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Anyone know of books that list soccer 2H lines that are still available at halftime?
Click to expand...
This question has confused me since you posted it. Don't all books list 2h soccer lines at halftime? I don't bet soccer but I know it's a gigantic market so I'd assume everyone opens back up at halftime to take bets
Click to expand...
I should be more clear. A 2H line that's posted before the game, and stays open up until halftime. Perhaps lines that are left unattended, if you will.

 
No idea what these numbers are pulled from but thought this was interesting. From sbrodds

Code: 
	         current line	wagers placed  amount wageredAtlanta	         +1 +115	2,162	       $101,614  Miami 	         -1 -135        1,253	       $521,248
 
got_nugs said:
Modeeeshus....thinking about tomorrow? I am!
Click to expand...
yeah, i'll have some stuff

i'm ready to piss some money away tonight with some terrible bets. i'm hoping this game comes under 69.5 to help me break even:

Ben Saunders +260

Yager +265

Burley +900

all for $20 each. I don't know much to anything about Burley, but no way Jenkins should be giving this kind of line at this point. Yager and Saunders are big long shots, but they are both exciting and hopefully can do something. I'll be pumped to go 1-2 here

 
I was looking at the lump crab in the grocery store today. And a thick-### healthy baby behind me was checking out the pepperoni and pizza toppings right beside it. I saw her out of the corner of my eye and was like, damn girl why don’t you look over my shoulder a little bit. She finally made a move and put her hand on something, but she hesitated. When I looked to see what she was grabbing, and I sht you not, the package said hard salami.

Inside my head I was like, oh #### oh #### oh ####, but she walked away before I could say anything. Probably for the best.

 
John Bender said:
Raider Nation said:
John Bender said:
RN - am I late to the party discovering this gem?

Keni Burke - Risin To The Top

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ieevQ9RrDc
Click to expand...
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=682543&p=15636948

;)
Click to expand...
GD you're good

I was just thinking about how often I've heard that sample in other tunes as well.

:tebow:

I think this one is pretty close too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omSFTes4W_o
Click to expand...
####### that's a great tune.

It's a slow betting night...

so here: one of my faves no ones heard...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITqtp-3XudI

ETA: apparently that's Deniece Williams hitting all the background high notes

 
Last edited by a moderator:
modogg said:
got_nugs said:
Modeeeshus....thinking about tomorrow? I am!
Click to expand...
yeah, i'll have some stuff

i'm ready to piss some money away tonight with some terrible bets. i'm hoping this game comes under 69.5 to help me break even:

Ben Saunders +260

Yager +265

Burley +900

all for $20 each. I don't know much to anything about Burley, but no way Jenkins should be giving this kind of line at this point. Yager and Saunders are big long shots, but they are both exciting and hopefully can do something. I'll be pumped to go 1-2 here
Click to expand...
I don't see Yager and Burley....maybe i'm too late. But i'll donate $20 to the Ben Saunders foundation.

Heading north to watch the Rays/O's tomorrow...got sweet seats right on the 1st base line (not hard in Tampa or Miami to score awesome tickets). I'll be the guy screaming Hercules! Hercules! Hercules! Hercules! if anyone is watching.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Betting against the guy named Bubba on general principal

Almost fat fingered it for 12u instead of 1u
Click to expand...
:shock: :shock: :shock:

mother ####### own this #### boys. bring on the covers.com and other "experts" out there. Damn, i really wish you had made that mis-type in for that bet, and i really wish i went more than $20

 
got_nugs said:
modogg said:
got_nugs said:
Modeeeshus....thinking about tomorrow? I am!
Click to expand...
yeah, i'll have some stuff

i'm ready to piss some money away tonight with some terrible bets. i'm hoping this game comes under 69.5 to help me break even:

Ben Saunders +260

Yager +265

Burley +900

all for $20 each. I don't know much to anything about Burley, but no way Jenkins should be giving this kind of line at this point. Yager and Saunders are big long shots, but they are both exciting and hopefully can do something. I'll be pumped to go 1-2 here
Click to expand...
I don't see Yager and Burley....maybe i'm too late. But i'll donate $20 to the Ben Saunders foundation.

Heading north to watch the Rays/O's tomorrow...got sweet seats right on the 1st base line (not hard in Tampa or Miami to score awesome tickets). I'll be the guy screaming Hercules! Hercules! Hercules! Hercules! if anyone is watching.
Click to expand...
oh, that sucks. Burley is the man :brush: (never seen anybody use that emoticon before)

 
I will fox with you guys tonight on Fresno ATS.

edit: might wait and see if they come out flat and take them ats live :cheers:

edit: 12:00 2Q Fresno St -3 -110

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dan Lambskin said:
Betting against the guy named Bubba on general principal

Almost fat fingered it for 12u instead of 1u
Click to expand...
man, i really hope some other people played this too. Hitting a +900 just feels good. Not as good as Emanuel Newton when he was +800 because there was a little more reasoning in that pick, but this one felt great too.

It may have even made up for that Mayweather majority decision (which coincidentally that judge has gone on an extended leave of absence)

 
modogg said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Betting against the guy named Bubba on general principal

Almost fat fingered it for 12u instead of 1u
Click to expand...
man, i really hope some other people played this too. Hitting a +900 just feels good. Not as good as Emanuel Newton when he was +800 because there was a little more reasoning in that pick, but this one felt great too.

It may have even made up for that Mayweather majority decision (which coincidentally that judge has gone on an extended leave of absence)
Click to expand...
I only got it at +750 but ill gladly take it

Thanks again

 
Dan Lambskin said:
modogg said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Betting against the guy named Bubba on general principal

Almost fat fingered it for 12u instead of 1u
Click to expand...
man, i really hope some other people played this too. Hitting a +900 just feels good. Not as good as Emanuel Newton when he was +800 because there was a little more reasoning in that pick, but this one felt great too.

It may have even made up for that Mayweather majority decision (which coincidentally that judge has gone on an extended leave of absence)
Click to expand...
I only got it at +750 but ill gladly take it

Thanks again
Click to expand...
:hifive: let's hope "Killa B" can keep the ball rolling. If not, still a + night

 
modogg said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Betting against the guy named Bubba on general principal

Almost fat fingered it for 12u instead of 1u
Click to expand...
man, i really hope some other people played this too. Hitting a +900 just feels good. Not as good as Emanuel Newton when he was +800 because there was a little more reasoning in that pick, but this one felt great too.

It may have even made up for that Mayweather majority decision (which coincidentally that judge has gone on an extended leave of absence)
Click to expand...
For you-YAAAAAYYYY

For me missing the post-NOOOOOOOOOOOO

 
LAS VEGAS SHARPS REPORT, NFL WEEK 3

Walgreens' employees edition

One of the key stories so far this young season is how late in the process sharps have been waiting to unleash their fury on Vegas sportsbooks (and offshore sites as well). We’ve seen some big line moves in the hours leading up to kickoff…moves that weren’t obviously telegraphed with early week betting. We will endeavor to work with our sources to pin down more of those in the coming weeks.

Another big story…sharps have been struggling! We know of multiple syndicates that are off to slow starts, as their favorite NFL plays have failed to come through. You may not be aware that more than a few sharps have entered the prestigious LVH Contest this year because of the perception of so much “dead money” in the prize pool. More than 1,000 people entered for the first time ever. The overall struggles of the Hilton field are consistent with the early season woes of some sharps.

One thing we know for sure. Sharps eventually win, or they wouldn’t be sharps! With that backdrop, let’s see how sharps have been betting this weekend’s NFL action thus far. As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes on your schedule…

SAN DIEGO AT TENNESSEE:
Early action has seen a tug-of-war between Tennessee -3 and San Diego +3.5. Tennessee money is pointing to the fact that the Chargers have to play back-to-back games in the Eastern time zone after opening the season on a Monday Night. Angles players think the Titans are a steal at a field goal. There are some groups though who are impressed with how San Diego’s playing under their new head coach. Those groups have SD higher in their Power Ratings, which means anything at higher than +3 looks like a steal. Either sentiment would fade a public move away from the current range. Note that San Diego received a lot of late support last weekend, and that money won.

CLEVELAND AT MINNESOTA:
Line movement here was keyed by the news that Brandon Weeden would be out this week and third-teamer Bobby Hoyer would get the start at quarterback. The adjusted line has risen past Minnesota -6 to Minnesota -6.5 in some places. Those who want to fade Hoyer on the road against a good defense are getting their money in early. We’re hearing that sharps would be interested in the Browns at +7.5, and possibly +7 if the public doesn’t get much involved in this game. There’s a “Christian Ponder shouldn’t be favored by a TD over anyone” sentiment that is positioned to come into play before kickoff.

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ENGLAND:
Most stores are showing New England -7 as we go to press, with a trigger-finger ready to raise the line if the public starts betting the Pats. Sharps haven’t been betting the Pats because of all of their injuries. We’re talking about a team that could barely beat Buffalo and the Jets! Sharps did hit Tampa Bay pretty hard vs. New Orleans last week. Those tickets cashed, but it’s not like the Bucs were particularly impressive while covering. We’re hearing sharp money would come in on the Bucs at +8, and might settle for +7.5 if that’s the best they’ll see before kickoff. Note that a move above the seven would put New England in the two-team teaser window that sharps like to play. Sharps would be rooting for New England -1.5 or -2, but Tampa Bay +7.5 or +8.

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE:
If you see a line settled at 2.5 in the NFL for days, that’s telling you that sharps don’t like the favorite enough to move the line to the key number. We’ve heard though that sharps who were endorsing the Ravens in Week One and Week Two haven’t been impressed with what they’ve seen out of the gate. They have switched to using Baltimore in teasers at +8.5 rather than taking them as a team side. That would change if the public drives Houston up to the three. Sharps are a bit wary of both teams at the moment.

ST. LOUIS AT DALLAS:
We haven’t seen much betting interest yet. Stores are showing either Dallas -3.5 of Dallas -4. St. Louis was hit hard by many sharps last week in Atlanta…in a game they failed to cover after falling way behind. Sharps also faded Dallas pretty hard last week with Kansas City, only to lose that bet as well. So, we know there’s generally pro-St. Louis and anti-Dallas sentiment amongst many syndicates. We wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Louis +4 and maybe even St. Louis +3.5 get hit hard over the weekend by a few Wise Guy groups.

ARIZONA AT NEW ORLEANS:
This game is dancing around the teaser window…with stores posting a price that’s somewhat connected to their individual house rules on teasers. Those who don’t want teaser betters on home team New Orleans are dealing either -7 or -9. Those who make teasers expensive to play with additional juice are more commonly on New Orleans -7.5. Note that sharps faded the Saints last week…and many are telling us they’ve been impressed with Arizona out of the gate. Might be a game where sharps are on the dog at +7.5 or +8 while rooting for New Orleans in two-team teasers at a line below a field goal.

DETROIT AT WASHINGTON:
Sharps soured on Washington quickly, after the Skins were drubbed so badly in the first half by Philadelphia (which happened again the following week at Green Bay). We saw strong market respect for the Lions against Minnesota and Arizona. But, the Lions didn’t impress in a loss as a road favorite down in the desert last week. Those who would normally bet the Lions here are hesitant because it’s their second straight road game and divisional rival Chicago is up next. Nobody sharp wants any part of the Redskins until they play a good game. Look for the Lions (+) to show up in some teasers. And, that will be true for any dog that settles just below a field goal. Assume that as a blanket statement now so we don’t have to keep repeating it!

GREEN BAY AT CINCINNATI:
The Packers have been getting support all week as favorites of -1, -1.5, -2, and -2.5. When stores go to three, Cincinnati money starts coming in. That suggests a tug-of-war over the weekend…particularly if the public bets the favorite. Sharps who like Green Bay are already in at preferred lines. Cincinnati’s defense gets respect from sharps, and would draw continuing support at the key number of three.

NY GIANTS AT CAROLINA:
Even though the Giants have struggled to avoid mistakes vs. Dallas and Denver, they have been receiving sharp support at +2.5 and +2 on the road at Carolina. Surprising that sharps didn’t wait to see if public money would take Carolina up to three. There wasn’t any time for that to even be a possibility. Sharp syndicates who had been interested in Carolina to start the season have jumped off that bandwagon based on what we’re hearing.

ATLANTA AT MIAMI:
Miami drew interest at -1, -1.5 and even -2. We’re seeing Miami -2.5 in many stores now. It’s commonly assumed that Atlanta money would come in very strong at +3. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to give the Wise Guys that bet, while also sweating all the two-team teasers that would include the Falcons. That early action is a meaningful sign that sharps are impressed with Miami out of the gate. Remember that in future weeks.

INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN FRANCISCO:
This line opened at most stores above the key number of 10 (generally at SF -10.5). That tells you sportsbooks were expecting SF action, and weren’t looking to give away the key number. Sharps surprised oddsmakers by hitting Indianapolis at +10.5 (or anything higher). We’re generally seeing a solid ten everywhere at the moment…without any SF money coming in after the move downward. Our sources tell us sharps like Andrew Luck’s potential of either keeping this game close, or scoring in garbage time to get a late cover if the team falls behind by two touchdowns. Also relevant, San Francisco is in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle and St. Louis…with that St. Louis game coming up quickly on Thursday Night.

JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE:
The earliest openers in this projected blowout were around Seattle -17. That got pounded up immediately…so that the market has been flirting with Seattle -20 in the hours leading up to press time. There are many old school sharps who bet all double digit underdogs. Why did this line move against that sentiment? First, Jacksonville is playing its second straight game on the West Coast. Second, Jacksonville has no offense, which will make it very tough to score on the road against this great defense. Sharp money would come in on Jacksonville if the market solidifies at +20.

BUFFALO AT NY JETS:
Depending on the store, this game has been hopping around in the range just below NYJ -3. Buffalo money would come in at the full field goal based on what we’re hearing. Sharps who like Geno Smith over E.J. Manuel are getting in at preferred lines now.

CHICAGO AT PITTSBURGH:
A lot of similarities with Green Bay/Cincinnati, beyond the obvious battle of divisions. Sharps have shown support for the cheap road favorite, but home underdog money on a strong defense would come in at +3. Pittsburgh has fallen so far so fast!

OAKLAND AT DENVER (Monday Night):
Not much sense of urgency for sharps with such a high line in a Monday Night game. Those looking to bet Oakland can wait for the best number before kickoff on the assumption that the public will want the TV favorite. Sharps considering Denver won’t see -14, and there just aren’t that many groups that would lay this high a number against an opponent that’s starting out well. It’s one thing to ask a great team to crush helpless Jacksonville. Oakland is 2-0 ATS, and will show up for a divisional rivalry game. Sharps are likely to hit the Raiders in the hours before kickoff, particularly if public money is lifting the number.

 
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