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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
to his credit, he said he wanted the games and the end to be worth more b/c it would be more fun. not sure if he was covering or not, but it kinda makes sense
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I grew up and have lived in the Philly/NJ area all of my life, and never encountered weather like this. I mean, is bundling even effective at this point?
GB the Packers fans that brave that extreme of cold to support their guys. It's commendable IMHO.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I was running so far behind today due to the blizzard/traffic, I didn't have a chance to go. Next week for certain.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I grew up in Detroit, I think 2 degrees with a -15 windchill is the coldest weather I've ever been in. -41 windchill?
That said I just looked and the low for Monday night where my cabin is will be -10. Even for Northern Michigan that's ####### cold.
I used to walk to house parties in -50 windchill in college in Vermont. Pretty sure I got frostbite.
That's nasty cold.
I went to some really cold games for the Bills back in the day. We never had temps that low that I recall. Tailgating was better than the game but we could bring in as much booze and stuff as we wanted back then.
That's nasty cold.
I went to some really cold games for the Bills back in the day. We never had temps that low that I recall. Tailgating was better than the game but we could bring in as much booze and stuff as we wanted back then.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Question: I'm looking at some local homes on Auction.com. Some nice houses with low starting bids.... ~$60K-ish.
Some of the listings state the following: This property is reported to be occupied and buyer is responsible for obtaining possession.
I take that to mean the deadbeat who stopped paying his mortgage is still staying there and I'm going to have to enlist the help of my local motorcycle gang to throw his ### out on the street if I'm the winning bidder?
Some of the listings state the following: This property is reported to be occupied and buyer is responsible for obtaining possession.
I take that to mean the deadbeat who stopped paying his mortgage is still staying there and I'm going to have to enlist the help of my local motorcycle gang to throw his ### out on the street if I'm the winning bidder?
ChainsawU
Footballguy
SOS ranking: New Orleans 4th; Philly 27th
Pass defense: New Orleans 2nd; Philly 32nd
Already got a grip on the Saints ML so take this fwiw. Doc already said it, but I like the idea of getting the Super Bowl winning coach and Drew Brees versus the rookie coach and Foles. The only argument I have heard for the Eagles is that the Saints don’t do well on the road and it will be cold and loud. But you have to think - it is the playoffs - intensity gets jacked up 100% now. Game planning the playoffs is night and day compared to the regular season. Playoffs are just a different animal. Yes, the Saints do better at home, but give me the SB winning coach, the SB winning QB, and Rob Ryan in your back pocket (who is going to put Nick Foles together tonight) to implement all the little crucial details that will win the game.
Pass defense: New Orleans 2nd; Philly 32nd
Already got a grip on the Saints ML so take this fwiw. Doc already said it, but I like the idea of getting the Super Bowl winning coach and Drew Brees versus the rookie coach and Foles. The only argument I have heard for the Eagles is that the Saints don’t do well on the road and it will be cold and loud. But you have to think - it is the playoffs - intensity gets jacked up 100% now. Game planning the playoffs is night and day compared to the regular season. Playoffs are just a different animal. Yes, the Saints do better at home, but give me the SB winning coach, the SB winning QB, and Rob Ryan in your back pocket (who is going to put Nick Foles together tonight) to implement all the little crucial details that will win the game.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
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That's how I understand it from a buddy's experience with buying liens on properties.
The_Man
Footballguy
I really like Indy. Glad I waited - just took them +1. I also took Philly -3 (-105).
For tomorrow, I like SF -3, still haven't made up my mind on the SD-Cincy game.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I just don't get the KC love.
Indy PK 2.5u.
Indy PK 2.5u.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
On Indy, Sf and phi as well. I think phi/no has the chance to be a shootout as phi struggles versus the pass and that is NO's strength while NO struggles versus the run and that is Phi's strength.
GLTA
AB
GLTA
AB
The Ref
Footballguy
Bama blew it. We can all agree with that. I think we can all also agree they may have been unmotivated.
Georgia was outplayed by Nebraska, had a crappy year, missed its starting QB and dare I say was unmotivated
A&M missed the bus but came back to win vs Duke but didn't cover. If this game was 5 min longer I suspect they would have.
LSU beat Iowa and let up the miracle TD for the push. Also missed starting QB.
SC Beat Wisconsin covered
Missou beat Ok St, covered.
Miss St Blew out Rice and covered
Ole Miss Beat GT and Covered
I do think Houston is a better team most would credit them for, but I'm going SEC here. Vandy didn't have it's dreams crushed by not playing in the NC game and it's Jordan Matthews final game... I think they want to win this game and when SEC teams want to win they tend to cover.
I'm not over thinking this one - give me the better roster on paper.
Georgia was outplayed by Nebraska, had a crappy year, missed its starting QB and dare I say was unmotivated
A&M missed the bus but came back to win vs Duke but didn't cover. If this game was 5 min longer I suspect they would have.
LSU beat Iowa and let up the miracle TD for the push. Also missed starting QB.
SC Beat Wisconsin covered
Missou beat Ok St, covered.
Miss St Blew out Rice and covered
Ole Miss Beat GT and Covered
I do think Houston is a better team most would credit them for, but I'm going SEC here. Vandy didn't have it's dreams crushed by not playing in the NC game and it's Jordan Matthews final game... I think they want to win this game and when SEC teams want to win they tend to cover.
I'm not over thinking this one - give me the better roster on paper.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Indy up to 2.5 at RB...... I doubt we see 3 but 
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Philly going to -3 across the board.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
*3 Sproles over 4 receptions -130 Push
*1 Cobb over 5 receptions
*1 LaVon Brazil under 22.5 receiving Loser
*.8 DeSean Jackson under 79.5 receivingWinner
*.9 P. Rivers under 264.5 passing
*.75 Alex Smith under 30.5 longest completionLoser
*1 Antonio Gates under 50.5 receiving
*.9 Coby Fleener under 3.5 receptions -150Loser
*.8 Frank Gore over 79.5 rushing
*.9 DeSean Jackson under 4.5 receiving (E)Winner
*.7 Zach Ertz over 29.5 receiving Loser
*1 Cobb over 5 receptions
*1 LaVon Brazil under 22.5 receiving Loser
*.8 DeSean Jackson under 79.5 receivingWinner
*.9 P. Rivers under 264.5 passing
*.75 Alex Smith under 30.5 longest completionLoser
*1 Antonio Gates under 50.5 receiving
*.9 Coby Fleener under 3.5 receptions -150Loser
*.8 Frank Gore over 79.5 rushing
*.9 DeSean Jackson under 4.5 receiving (E)Winner
*.7 Zach Ertz over 29.5 receiving Loser
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
line movement on colts game is crazy. Already had colts -1.5
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Syracuse -13
Utah -7.5
Houston +6
Florida State -3.5
Utah -7.5
Houston +6
Florida State -3.5
modogg
Footballguy
well, hopefully you played all 4. my chickening out left me 1-1, if i played Halloway and Kimura it would have been 3-1
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Small play on Houston +1.5
I like Derrick Johnson O6.5 tackles (-125) at Bovada today. Line is O7 (-115) at SB, fwiw.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I think all 4 favs cover but SF -2.5 is the only one I'm playing ATS
Also played KC O46
Also played KC O46
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
FCS Championship game:
Towson State +15.5 for one drunk president.
Towson State +15.5 for one drunk president.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Money is 64% on the Eagles now - up from 55% last night. And my 5D balance is back to where it was before I put a grip on the Saints ML on Monday. Might double-dip that #####. This article has a lot of cool facts about each playoff game. And the one fact that I think is pushing Eagles money - along with the media pushing the "Saints road woes" - is the fact that Philly just beat the #### out of Chicago and Dallas in back-to-back prime time games on NBC. Everyone and their dog saw it. According to the article, it will be the first time a team has played three games in a row on the same network in prime time.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Bovada:
Payne (msu) Over 7.5 rebs -120
Payne (msu) Over 7.5 rebs -120
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I got the Chiefs for teasers at +2.5 and now it's -2.5? WTF is going on there? Big syndicate bet? Takes a lot for an NFL to move that far and across the zero with no significant injury news right?
Maybe I'll add Colts +8.5 to my teasers, that's a huge middle.
Maybe I'll add Colts +8.5 to my teasers, that's a huge middle.
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
Gimme Colts +8.5 and O41.5 2-teamer teaser for the first game, that's too big a swing. Think the Chiefs can potentially win this game, but I don't see them running away with this at all, and the Colts don't cover a teaser where they can lose by a TD at home and still cover.
This is a bad line move, thanks for pointing out DD!
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I have 14 teasers now. Colts or Chiefs with Packers, Saints and Bengals by 2s
Then five mix and match teasers some with Florida State -3 by 3s.
Then five mix and match teasers some with Florida State -3 by 3s.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I don't think 95% of public money could move a line that far though could it? So that 82% includes some big Sharp bets too right?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Sharps report, written last night.
SATURDAY 4:35 P.M. ET: KANSAS CITY AT INDIANAPOLIS
Because weather won’t be an issue here, sharps have already made their intentions fairly clear. They didn’t bet Indianapolis at the opener of -2.5 on their home field…which made it crystal clear they didn’t love the favorite. There’s no way sharps would allow that line to stay below a field goal if they thought the Colts were the play. The Wise Guys waited to see if the public might take the line up to the key number. When it was clear that wasn’t going to happen, they started buying the Chiefs at +2.5 and +2. We’re now seeing Indianapolis -1.5 in many stores…with no signs of a buyback yet.
The total has stayed solid at 46. Earlier this season, that would have seemed like too high a number. But, Kansas City's defense has faded down the stretch. And, Indianapolis is a team that will likely pass all day if they fall behind. Sharps believed their best value in the game was on KC +2 or better. Many we’ve talked to believe the Chiefs should have been a small favorite.
SATURDAY: 8:10 P.M.: NEW ORLEANS AT PHILADELPHIA
This game opened at Philadelphia -2.5 and has stood pat through the whole week. Again, this means sharps DON’T like the favorite or they would have driven the line to the key number of three. The market is begging you to bet the Eagles at that price but sharps aren’t nibbling. It’s telling that no money has come in yet on the Saints, unlike what we just saw with Kansas City. Sources tell us sharps who prefer the dog are more optimistic about getting a full +3 after public betting in this game. And, we’re hearing that support for New Orleans is relatively tempered anyway because of their poor road record, and their potential unsuitability as a dome team playing a bad weather game. In other words….a lot of sharps are just flat passing the game. Those who prefer the dog are waiting to see if they can get +3.
The Over/Under has come down a bit from an opener of 54.5. We’re now seeing 54 or 53.5 in most stores. The key here will be the presence or absence of wind and precipitation. We saw a few weeks ago that many teams could move the ball easily with short passes as long as wind wasn’t a big issue. Receivers wear gloves now that are a big help in these conditions. Sharps will only bet Under if it’s going to be windy.
SUNDAY, 1:05 P.M ET: SAN DIEGO AT CINCINNATI
Cincinnati was bet up from an opener of -6.5 to the key number of seven. This is what happens when sharps see value on the favorite around a key number! The line hasn’t moved past the seven though. And, there are some sharp contingents who like the dog at +7 because of San Diego’s improved play down the stretch, and Cincinnati’s erratic play all season. That may set up a tug-of-war between Cincinnati -6.5 and San Diego +7 on game day. In terms of the weather, the better the conditions, the more likely sharps are to prefer the dog from Southern California. Cincinnati has the better defense, which favors them more the worse the weather gets.
Not much interest on the total yet, with the game staying near 47 all week.
SUNDAY 4:40 P.M.: SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY
Looks like a tug-of-war here between San Francisco -2.5 and Green Bay +3. And, our reporting suggests strong sentiment on both sides of that coin. San Francisco money really likes their chances at -2.5 because the team is well suited to what are forecast to be horrible game conditions. They have the better defense, and their offense is less reliant on the pass. But, Green Bay money loves the Packers at +3 because their players are much more used to cold conditions…and that line is pretty indefensible in terms of how good the Packers are at home under quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This game is going to have a HUGE handle in Las Vegas because the public will be loading up on the last game of the weekend too.
The total has started to drop as it becomes clearer the wind chill will be way below zero. An opener of 48 is now down to 47 or 46.5. Sources tell us that number will keep falling with the wind chill! If passing isn’t going to be an option in the coldest playoff game we’ve seen in years…then another field goal or more could come off the Over/Under.
This is a weekend where you’ll really want to keep an eye on line moves before kickoff. Public money is just now hitting the board…and it’s most likely going to come in on the first three favorites (Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati). If you see the line moving the other way…that means sharps have factored in the final weather assessments and are taking very big stands. And, any major move on an Over/Under will be sharp driven.
SATURDAY 4:35 P.M. ET: KANSAS CITY AT INDIANAPOLIS
Because weather won’t be an issue here, sharps have already made their intentions fairly clear. They didn’t bet Indianapolis at the opener of -2.5 on their home field…which made it crystal clear they didn’t love the favorite. There’s no way sharps would allow that line to stay below a field goal if they thought the Colts were the play. The Wise Guys waited to see if the public might take the line up to the key number. When it was clear that wasn’t going to happen, they started buying the Chiefs at +2.5 and +2. We’re now seeing Indianapolis -1.5 in many stores…with no signs of a buyback yet.
The total has stayed solid at 46. Earlier this season, that would have seemed like too high a number. But, Kansas City's defense has faded down the stretch. And, Indianapolis is a team that will likely pass all day if they fall behind. Sharps believed their best value in the game was on KC +2 or better. Many we’ve talked to believe the Chiefs should have been a small favorite.
SATURDAY: 8:10 P.M.: NEW ORLEANS AT PHILADELPHIA
This game opened at Philadelphia -2.5 and has stood pat through the whole week. Again, this means sharps DON’T like the favorite or they would have driven the line to the key number of three. The market is begging you to bet the Eagles at that price but sharps aren’t nibbling. It’s telling that no money has come in yet on the Saints, unlike what we just saw with Kansas City. Sources tell us sharps who prefer the dog are more optimistic about getting a full +3 after public betting in this game. And, we’re hearing that support for New Orleans is relatively tempered anyway because of their poor road record, and their potential unsuitability as a dome team playing a bad weather game. In other words….a lot of sharps are just flat passing the game. Those who prefer the dog are waiting to see if they can get +3.
The Over/Under has come down a bit from an opener of 54.5. We’re now seeing 54 or 53.5 in most stores. The key here will be the presence or absence of wind and precipitation. We saw a few weeks ago that many teams could move the ball easily with short passes as long as wind wasn’t a big issue. Receivers wear gloves now that are a big help in these conditions. Sharps will only bet Under if it’s going to be windy.
SUNDAY, 1:05 P.M ET: SAN DIEGO AT CINCINNATI
Cincinnati was bet up from an opener of -6.5 to the key number of seven. This is what happens when sharps see value on the favorite around a key number! The line hasn’t moved past the seven though. And, there are some sharp contingents who like the dog at +7 because of San Diego’s improved play down the stretch, and Cincinnati’s erratic play all season. That may set up a tug-of-war between Cincinnati -6.5 and San Diego +7 on game day. In terms of the weather, the better the conditions, the more likely sharps are to prefer the dog from Southern California. Cincinnati has the better defense, which favors them more the worse the weather gets.
Not much interest on the total yet, with the game staying near 47 all week.
SUNDAY 4:40 P.M.: SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY
Looks like a tug-of-war here between San Francisco -2.5 and Green Bay +3. And, our reporting suggests strong sentiment on both sides of that coin. San Francisco money really likes their chances at -2.5 because the team is well suited to what are forecast to be horrible game conditions. They have the better defense, and their offense is less reliant on the pass. But, Green Bay money loves the Packers at +3 because their players are much more used to cold conditions…and that line is pretty indefensible in terms of how good the Packers are at home under quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This game is going to have a HUGE handle in Las Vegas because the public will be loading up on the last game of the weekend too.
The total has started to drop as it becomes clearer the wind chill will be way below zero. An opener of 48 is now down to 47 or 46.5. Sources tell us that number will keep falling with the wind chill! If passing isn’t going to be an option in the coldest playoff game we’ve seen in years…then another field goal or more could come off the Over/Under.
This is a weekend where you’ll really want to keep an eye on line moves before kickoff. Public money is just now hitting the board…and it’s most likely going to come in on the first three favorites (Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati). If you see the line moving the other way…that means sharps have factored in the final weather assessments and are taking very big stands. And, any major move on an Over/Under will be sharp driven.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Wildcard Weekend is loaded with four potentially great matchups. And, each is fascinating in its own way. But, the opener featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts may ultimately provide the most headaches for handicappers because so much is unknown about each team.
QUESTIONS ABOUT KANSAS CITY
*Are they an illusion created by a very weak schedule (some think it was the weakest!)?
*Did they peak too soon before fading down the stretch?
*Can Alex Smith win a playoff game against a good opponent?
*Why were they CRUSHED at home by these same Colts recently?
*Can the defense stop any GOOD quarterbacks after facing so many bad ones?
Even though the regular season is in the books, the world of football analysis still isn’t sure whether Kansas City is a legitimate Super Bowl threat or a glorified pretender. Some computer sites had them as high as #6 before the loss to the Colts. Right now, some see them as a top 10 team with potential, while others see them as a non-playoff team that benefitted from an incredibly easy schedule. WHO ARE THE CHIEFS AND HOW GOOD ARE THEY?!
QUESTIONS ABOUT INDIANAPOLIS
*What’s with their trend for beating good teams but struggling vs. bad teams?
*Could they have won any other NFL division besides the pathetic AFC South?
*Is Andrew Luck ready to step up with a statement performance?
*Why did the smart money come in so heavily against them late Thursday and early Friday?!
A lot of the same computer football places are just as unsure about Indianapolis. A few have them better than Kansas City on a neutral field (which the market disagrees with). One has them not even making the top 20 out of 32 NFL teams! THIS IS A GAME OF QUESTION MARKS!
Let’s see if looking at each team’s strengths will help us get a better read on the matchup…
IN KANSAS CITY’S FAVOR
*More diversified attack
*Starters rested last week to get ready
*Learned adjustments that needed to be made after home loss to the Colts
*Opponent is relying on the arm of a young, still learning quarterback
Frankly, this isn’t a team with a lot of strengths once you adjust for their soft strength of schedule. Their best category is turnover differential…which can’t be trusted against weak schedules because it could have been caused by bad teams self-destructing. How are the Chiefs going to win in the playoffs if their opponents don’t implode? They do have a more diversified attack, which could ultimately be the tie-breaker.
IN INDIANAPOLIS’S FAVOR
*Home field advantage
*Success vs. quality opposition this year (wins over Denver, Seattle, SF, and this KC team)
*QB has more “big performance” potential than opponent’s quarterback
It may be easier to classify the Colts as a “B” team on the report card, while the Chiefs could still be “B+” or “C” given additional time to study them against playoff caliber opposition. The margin for error is slight with both teams. The market isn’t giving Indy much respect for home field advantage given the current line.
Current Line: Indianapolis by 1, total of 46.5
Prior Market Activity: Home field advantage by itself is worth three points. Some would argue it’s worth more in playoff games (though that’s been less true in recent seasons). The current line is suggesting Kansas City would be -2 on a neutral field, and -5 at home. Clearly, the sharps think Kansas City is the better team. Should you?
QUESTIONS ABOUT KANSAS CITY
*Are they an illusion created by a very weak schedule (some think it was the weakest!)?
*Did they peak too soon before fading down the stretch?
*Can Alex Smith win a playoff game against a good opponent?
*Why were they CRUSHED at home by these same Colts recently?
*Can the defense stop any GOOD quarterbacks after facing so many bad ones?
Even though the regular season is in the books, the world of football analysis still isn’t sure whether Kansas City is a legitimate Super Bowl threat or a glorified pretender. Some computer sites had them as high as #6 before the loss to the Colts. Right now, some see them as a top 10 team with potential, while others see them as a non-playoff team that benefitted from an incredibly easy schedule. WHO ARE THE CHIEFS AND HOW GOOD ARE THEY?!
QUESTIONS ABOUT INDIANAPOLIS
*What’s with their trend for beating good teams but struggling vs. bad teams?
*Could they have won any other NFL division besides the pathetic AFC South?
*Is Andrew Luck ready to step up with a statement performance?
*Why did the smart money come in so heavily against them late Thursday and early Friday?!
A lot of the same computer football places are just as unsure about Indianapolis. A few have them better than Kansas City on a neutral field (which the market disagrees with). One has them not even making the top 20 out of 32 NFL teams! THIS IS A GAME OF QUESTION MARKS!
Let’s see if looking at each team’s strengths will help us get a better read on the matchup…
IN KANSAS CITY’S FAVOR
*More diversified attack
*Starters rested last week to get ready
*Learned adjustments that needed to be made after home loss to the Colts
*Opponent is relying on the arm of a young, still learning quarterback
Frankly, this isn’t a team with a lot of strengths once you adjust for their soft strength of schedule. Their best category is turnover differential…which can’t be trusted against weak schedules because it could have been caused by bad teams self-destructing. How are the Chiefs going to win in the playoffs if their opponents don’t implode? They do have a more diversified attack, which could ultimately be the tie-breaker.
IN INDIANAPOLIS’S FAVOR
*Home field advantage
*Success vs. quality opposition this year (wins over Denver, Seattle, SF, and this KC team)
*QB has more “big performance” potential than opponent’s quarterback
It may be easier to classify the Colts as a “B” team on the report card, while the Chiefs could still be “B+” or “C” given additional time to study them against playoff caliber opposition. The margin for error is slight with both teams. The market isn’t giving Indy much respect for home field advantage given the current line.
Current Line: Indianapolis by 1, total of 46.5
Prior Market Activity: Home field advantage by itself is worth three points. Some would argue it’s worth more in playoff games (though that’s been less true in recent seasons). The current line is suggesting Kansas City would be -2 on a neutral field, and -5 at home. Clearly, the sharps think Kansas City is the better team. Should you?
